Thursday, September 29, 2011

Fixing the Red Sox

Last night, the Red Sox completed a collapse that was reminiscent of 1978 by blowing a nine game lead in the wild card during the month of September. For the last twenty games, they managed to play worse than anyone else in the American League except for the Royals, who they tied with a dreadful 5-15 record. That sort of record can be expected by teams that are going nowhere, as they are giving AAA players a shot to prove they can play, but not from a potential playoff team like the Sox were.

However, there is a way to fix the Red Sox so that their issues do not appear again. So step away from the Take-A-Number machine at the Tobin Bridge, get off the ledge, and stop jumping to your deaths. Also, look at the bright side in this – chances are, there will be fewer Pink Hat fans at Fenway next year, allowing real Sox fans to have greater access to the park.

Step One to fixing the Red Sox – get rid of Terry Francona and Curt Young: Quite simply, Francona’s time has come. He has lost the clubhouse, as evidenced by his admission earlier today that he needed to call a team meeting during their time in Toronto earlier this month, telling the players to focus on the game and not any off-field distractions. That obviously did not happen. The Sox continued to play with their heads buried in the sand for the remainder of the month, as they appeared complacent that their superior talent would allow them to coast into the playoffs as though it was their right. Francona has created an atmosphere where players do not need to take responsibility for their actions or performances (see Lackey, John). They can get time off due to phantom injuries (see Drew, JD). They can be out of shape for the entire season, and it does not matter (see half their roster). He needs to go.

Joining him should be Curt Young. Young was a terrible fit for this organization, as they have a number of strikeout pitchers, but he tried to implement a philosphy of pitching to contact. However, to have that be effective, there needs to be something resembling defense behind the pitchers, and the pitchers have to know how to get the hitter to hit the ball off the end of the bat. Too often, Red Sox pitchers threw absolute meatballs in key situations and were unable to get the big outs when they needed them. This can be placed squarely on Young and his pitching philosphy.

Step Two – Find Cement Shoes For John Lackey: If Lackey was the horse that he looks like, he would have been allowed to eat one last sugar cube before someone took a shotgun and blew his brains all over the pasture. The only thing he would be good for is Tyler Durden’s soap. Lackey is the personification of what is wrong with the Red Sox – fat, complacent, unable to take responsibility for the fact that he sucks, and has a contract almost as bloated as his waistline. If the Sox can get anything at all for him, even if it is a garbage bag of used sweatsocks, they should jump on it in a moment. Too bad that Jim Hendry got fired a couple months ago, because Lackey is his type of player – useless and overpaid. Oh, and you have three more years of this at $15.25Million per. The Sox may actually be better off dumping him entirely and regarding that money as a loss.

Step Three – Change Their Free Agent Evaluation Process: Whatever the Sox are doing, it is not working. They are dangerously close to becoming the New York Yankees of the mid 19080′s to the mid 1990′s. Remember that collection of high priced misfit toys that Steinbrenner would assemble that hated each other and could not play together? Well, that’s where the Sox are heading. Instead of trying to find the best fit for their long and short term goals, they have done nothing but throw money at the problems (see Lackey, John and Crawford, Carl). It does not matter if the players make any actual sense for the organization, it just matters as to whether or not they are big names. The Sox used to be good at finding players that fit their system (Ortiz, Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, Curt Schilling, etc), regardless of their reputations. Now, they are simply throwing big names at a wall and hoping they stick. This is why the clubhouse is so fractured, and why no one cares. Speaking of…..

Step Four – Youth Infusion: Let’s look at the prospective free agents this offseason for the Sox. There are Marco Scutaro, Ortiz, Jason Varitek, JD Drew, Tim Wakefield, Hideki Okajima, and Jonathon Papelbon. Of those players, only Ortiz and Papelbon would be worth bringing back in. This leaves the door open for Jose Iglesias at shortstop, Ryan Lavarnway at catcher, Ryan Kalish in right field, and a couple of players in the bullpen. The Red Sox were nothing more than a bunch of high priced players who simply went through the motions. While the steady influence and calming nature of veteran leadership is valuable during the closely contested games and the playoffs, it takes youthful exuberance to get a team to play with energy during the dog days of the season. The Sox have been lacking that for a long time, and it has proven to be a major detriment. Bring in some of the kids in AAA, instead of blowing money on high priced players that do not fit.

The Sox just need to do the preceding four things and they will be back to where they were during 2004 and 2007 – winning championships. However, that would require the Sox to actually focus on baseball moves, instead of acquiring players that the Pink Hat community will like. Naturally, this process would be about as popular with them as it would be if someone collected every copy of ‘Sweet Caroline’ and blew them up Disco Demolition style. So it will not happen. Why fix the problem when the park is filled with happy slobs that will pay $10 for a beer, just for the experience of being at Fenway?

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Defending Jose Reyes

Today, during the 2011 finale for the New York Mets, Jose Reyes got a bunt single in his first at bat. He then immediately took himself out of the game, knowing full well that the 2011 NL Batting Title was in hand. Naturally, Mets fans (all five of them) are regarding this with outrage, infuriated that he would disregard their desire to see them and that he would show such little regard for the organization.

Look at this from Reyes’ point of view. This is his contract year, and he will be one of the marques free agents available. He has a unique skillset with his deadly speed and he plays at a premium position. After seeing the contract that Carl Crawford received in the offseason, he is angling to get something comparable. While Reyes does have injury issues, he now has something that Crawford does not – a batting title. Reyes is looking to get paid, pure and simple.

Meanwhile, Mets fans are whining that he is disrespecting the organization with his actions. What they are conveniently forgetting is that the Mets disrespected him first. Remember when Wilpon went on that rant about Reyes? He made the best player on his failure of a ballclub the target of his ire, saying the he does not deserve to get paid. Meanwhile, he has several fine examples of carbon based wastage on the payroll in Jason Bay, Angel Pagan, K-Rod (at the time), or Oliver Perez. But no, he singled out the best offensive player on the team, and it is not even close (Reyes has a WAR of 5.8. The next closest hitter on the team that is still there is Daniel Murphy at 1.9).

Respect is a two way street. Reyes was disrespected by ownership and by the Mets front office. Now, he is positioning himself to get a better contract. If the Mets had anything resembling baseball acumen, they would have locked him up and built the team around what he can provide them. However, they alienated the only reason people have to go out to that ballpark. Reyes is as good as gone, and the Mets will have absolutely nothing on offense next year. Forget any notion that they can spend in free agency; they still have the Madoff mess to deal with and possibly pay for. Where do the reinforcements come from then?

Jose Reyes did what was the right thing for Jose Reyes. Professional sports, the players, coaches, and even the owners, are nothing more than a collection of mercenaries. Nothing more, nothing less. They sell themselves to the highest bidders, maximizing the brief time that they can make maximum money in a child’s game. Do not romantize it. Accept it for what it is. And then realize that Jose Reyes is not at fault.

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Crashing The Wave

If you have been to a sporting event, or watched one on television any time in the past thirty years, you have seen it. It is one of the most annoying sports occurrences, distracting viewers from the action on the field. It has spawned an entire generation of ‘fans’ who know nothing about the teams playing, or the sports in general, but who want to go out to the ballpark for the experience. It sucks people into it’s trap like a spider and a fly. It is the wave.

To rip apart the wave, one must understand it’s origins. The wave began in the early 1960′s, when a male cheerleader named Bill T. Peterson would run around the court at basketball games for Pacific Lutheran University, urging fans to rise up as he passed. From that point, it disappeared until it unfortunately resurfaced during the 1976 Montreal Olympics, and then in the NHL. Yes, this is a good time to blame Canada. Eric Cartman would be proud.

An alternative theory on the origins of the wave lays the blame squarely at the feet of one ‘Krazy’ George Henderson, who started it during the 1981 AL Championship game between the Oakland A’s and the New York Yankees. He claims the wave was inspired by accident when he jumped up at an NHL game while trying to lead cheers in the arena.

First, who are these people that think it’s their right to perform such a distracting and mindless task? They continually cajole and demand for people to stand up and do the wave, even in situations when it is not appropriate. Yeah, do the wave in a game when your team is losing 15-2 in the bottom of the fifth inning. Yeah, that’s the perfect time. Who cares if the game is out of reach and there is a better chance of Jesus, Nero, Hitler, and Charles de Gaulle performing a conga line through the aisles than of your team winning? The wave is FUN, and you just want to say you where there.

The wave is, in part, the beginning of the ‘pink hat’ phenomenon, leading people to want to have fun and hang out as opposed to watch the game. Go to Fenway after a Red Sox home game, find one of those pink hat fans (they are everywhere), and ask them basic baseball questions or questions about the game. At almost every moment, they will be unable to answer the questions. Yet, they will gush on about singing ‘Sweet Caroline’ or about doing the wave, or how they drank a lot of beer.

Do not think this is an epidemic only for the Red Sox, because it is not. The Jets have that annoying twit Fireman Ed, who prances around in the stands, leading cheers by force until he gets his ugly mug and white fireman’s hat on television. The Yankees have ‘Cotton Eye Joe’ playing for the seventh inning stretch. The Braves have the tomahawk chop. And it goes on, and on, and on. The rot has infected every stadium.

In the end, it all comes back to the wave. If not for that, all of these other ballpark gimmicks befitting independent minor league teams would not be around. Real fans know when it’s appropriate to engage in such things according to the game. Real fans understand the sport they are watching, and actually pay attention to the games. Pink Hat fans and those who just want the experience participate in the wave and singing songs that make rational people want to puncture their own eardrums if only to get the song out of their skulls. Which one do you want to be?

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Peyton Manning For 2011 MVP

One would think that the Colts organization, by all accounts a rather astute group of football minds, would have realized that getting a legitimate backup for Peyton Manning should be on their list of priorities. Yes, before this year, Manning was more durable than the scalpel used by Joan Rivers’ surgeon; however, teams need to plan for emergencies. Seriously, Jeff Garcia wouldn’t have taken that job in a heartbeat?

But no, the Colts proceeded to go through the likes of Jim Sorgi and Curtis Painter as their primary backups to Manning. Apparently, players like Spergon Wynn were beyond the talent level needed at that position. The questions asked by Colts management must have been whether or not they can carry a clipboard while wearing shoulder pads and if they like hats. If you answered yes to both of those questions, then you could have been a Colts backup quarterback as well.

All of this ignored that Manning was literally everything to that organization. Their head coach’s coaching style is reminiscent of a blaxploitation version of the corpse from Weekend At Bernie’s. In fact, are we even sure that Jim Caldwell is alive? Has anyone seen the man blink? And what is he doing with that headset on, monitoring the drive-thru worker at the local McDonald’s as he takes orders? Useless.

And yet, Caldwell is not the only problem. They have not had a useful running back since the reign of James I (Edgerrin) ended in 2005. Their attempts to draft a running back have met with the same success that Vanilla Ice had with his album ‘Mind Blowin’. This even includes the coming of James II, Edgerrin’s cousin Javarris. In fact, despite spending two first round draft choices on the position since 2006. In fact, they have blown their last five first round picks. Winning franchises do not do that – they find actual playmakers. Teams like the Bengals, Bills, and Lions blow all of their first round picks, not teams that are supposed to be in the upper echelon of franchises like the Colts.

Then there is the train wreck that is loosely referred to as the Colts defense. They would not be able to an opposing offense that was comprised of eleven Helen Kellers. Dwight Freeney is still considered an impact player, but he is almost as old as Jeanne Calment was when she died. Pat Angerer has a great name for a linebacker, and is a tackling machine, but he is not a playmaker at all. The cupboard is completely barren on this side of the ball.

The only reason why the Colts were contenders year after year was Peyton Manning. Even though the season is only two weeks in, this has been proven beyond any doubt, given the absolute inability by the Colts to display even gross incompetence on the field. Yes, the Indianapolis Colts are playing football worse than France fares when it comes to a war since the times of Napoleon. Was their plan to find a backup to Manning to go 0-16, draft Andrew Luck, and hope he will be ready when the time comes? Because it sure seems like that was the plan.

Sadly, this also seems to be the plan being taken by the Kansas City Chiefs, who are playing more like the Chefs presently. At least they can point to numerous injuries as to why they have problems. In fact, avoid football entirely during Week 5 of the NFL season, in case you accidentally see any part of the Chiefs-Colts battle for the first overall pick. People that see this game may experience symptoms such as vomiting, breaking out in cold sweats, and having flashbacks of watching Jack Trudeau attempting to play quarterback. The only way to get rid of these symptoms would be to swallow a shotgun. Sorry, but terrible football is a fatal disease. Wonder if this suckfest will end in a 0-0 tie……

By not playing, Peyton Manning has proven to be more valuable than any one person currently playing for their teams. It’s time for the voters for the annual NFL awards to step outside the box, and vote Peyton Manning for 2011 MVP.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Shut Up Tim Tebow Supporters

Fans of third string, and hideously overrated, quarterback Tim Tebow are planning to purchase billboards, urging Denver Broncos coach John Fox to bench Kyle Orton and start Football Jesus. First, this assumes that Fox would actually care what these obviously delusional people think about the quarterbacking situation in Denver. Second, this assumes that Football Jesus not only can walk on water, model underwear, and praise God while playing quarterback with some level of competence. Tebow has managed to do the first three on this list, but he is not ready to do the fourth.

If a quarterback with a similar set of skills was to come out in the NFL Draft, and not have been named Tim Tebow, he would have been no more than a fifth round selection. Quite frankly, he needed to revamp his throwing motion, which is still a work in progress, learn a complex offensive system, learn to read a defense, and to make plays with something other than his legs. In fact, in most cases, the same player would have been converted to tight end. But since he’s the Football Jesus, he stuck at quarterback and was a first round pick.

Naturally, Tebow’s supporters are blind to this. To ‘attack’ Tebow (mention his shortcomings and how he needs to improve his game) is to attack his religious beliefs. Apparently, those people that notice the problems with Tebow’s game are against religious people, puppies, super happy sunshine, freedom, the sanctity of marriage, Swedish Bikini Teams, teddy bears, rainbows, and beer. But, that is not the case. No one cares who Tebow worships. He can praise God, Allah, Satan, or Cocidius for all anyone cares, as long as he plays football with some degree of skill. The reality is, that he cannot do that. So shut up, religi-freaks.

Lost in all the Football Jesus hype is the fact that the fact that Orton is actually a good quaterback. Last year, before the ill-advised Tebow games at the end of the year. He has completed 58.1% of his passes in his NFL career, has not had a quarterback rating below 79.6 in any full season that he has been a starter since his rookie year, and knows how to win football games. Tebow won games in college. Let’s put it this way – if Tebow throws for more than 70 touchdowns in his NFL career, I will eat my boxers on air during a podcast The Mad Sportsmen – you should give us a listen *shameless plug*). Take it to the bank.

Football Jesus was a great college quarterback, make no mistake. But there have been quite a few great college quarterbacks that have not done anything in the NFL. Just look to Rodney Peete, Gino Torretta, Eric Crouch, Brad Banks, Troy Smith, and Danny Wuerffel, amongst others. They were terrible in the NFL, and in fact, some players like Jason White, never made it in. THAT is the company that Tebow will be in – not in the Steve Young or Randall Cunningham level.

So shut up Tim Tebow fans, and get over yourselves. The criticism of Football Jesus has NOTHING to do with his religion – just the fac tthat he is not and never will be an NFL quarterback.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

2011 NFC West Preview

Welcome to the eighth and final installment of the 2011 NFL Preview. In this edition, we take a look at the NFC West. As always, teams are listed in order of their expected finish.

1. St. Louis Rams:Over the past few years, the offense has been all about Steven Jackson. Jackson has been on the receiving end of a lot of hits over that time, and has shaken off the nagging injuries to account for 72% of the Rams carries since 2008. Jackson will not have to shoulder that much of the lead this year, as the Rams have finally gotten some actual depth behind him in Jerious Norwood and Cadillac Williams. They have also finally found themselves a quarterback in Sam Bradford. Bradford looks like a future star in the league, and has Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator. This will only help his development. At receiver, he has what is essentially Wes Welker West in Danny Amendola, and Mike Sims-Walker, who is looking to jump start his career after faltering over the past season and a half in Jacksonville. Lance Kendricks will make an immediate impact in the passing game at tight end.

The defense, particularly the defensive line, could be outright scary for the opposition this year. Chris Long is beginning to tap into his potential, and appears to be on the verge of becoming a dominant player. James Hall is still a steady player, and Robert Quinn will be worked into the rotation. As he develops, he could become yet another steady player on that line. At linebacker, James Laurinaitis is solid in the middle, but the rest of the linebacking corps is a bit lacking. They gave up a lot of big plays last year, but should see an upgrade with the signing of Ben Leber. The biggest problem the Rams defense will have is in the secondary. The loss of Oshiomogho Atogwe will hurt a lot, but they attempted to lessen the blow by bringing in Quintin Mikell and Al Harris. The cornerbacks do not have any depth at all, with the injury to third corner Jerome Murphy. If either of the starters gets hurt, the Rams are in a lot of trouble in the passing game. Look for the Rams to attempt to generate a lot of pressure with the line and through creative blitz packages to help the secondary.

The Rams have the pieces in place to be the dominant team in the NFC West for a long time. It starts this season, as they will finish above .500.

2. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals season was doomed from the start last year, as they attempted to go with the combo platter of suckage at quarterback. After realizing that Derek Anderson, John Skelton, and Max Hall are not NFL quarterbacks, they went out and traded their top defensive back in Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie (aka the Good Cromartie) for Kevin Kolb. Kolb is an accurate quarterback, but there are durability issues here. He has also displayed a penchant for turning the ball over, with eleven interceptions against fourteen touchdowns. Can Kolb be anything more than a backup? The running game is thin, as Tim Hightower was traded and rookie Ryan Williams is out for the season. This leaves the job solely to Beanie Wells, who has yet to show that he can actually do anything as a running back. Look for Chester Taylor, he of the 2.4 yards per carry last year, to get a lot of touches. The receivers may as well be Larry Fitzgerald, Larry Fitzgerald, and Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is a top three receiver, and should sue for a lack of support. The other starter is either going to be Andre Roberts or Early Doucet. Todd Heap was brought in as a free agent, and Rob Housler was drafted in the third round, but when do the Cardinals use the tight end? This could be yet another mess on offense.

The defense was absolutely terrible last year, looking at times old and at other times inexperienced. While they would like to trun the defense into Pittsburgh West, there is simply a lack of talent on this side of the football. Going with their third defensive co-ordinator in three years does not help, since unless he happens to be Gandalf and can turn nothing into a formidible cast of characters, it won’t matter. There is nothing even close to resembling a pass rush, either from the line or from the linebackers. Speaking of the linebackers, Joey porter and Clark Haggans were a travesty last year. They ae simply too slow to be able to make the types of plays that are required in this defense. In the secondary, Adrian Wilson is solid, and great on blitzes. Patrick Peterson will start immediately, and will need to fill the void left by Rodgers-Cromartie being traded. Look for the Cardinals to go four for four on new defensive co-ordinators next year.

The Cardinals need a lot of help, so why pick them to finish second? Because the rest of the division is even more of a train wreck.

3. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers seemingly have a lot of talent on offense, but can never make it work. Why is this? Quite simply, it is due to the quarterback. News flash for those of you that didn’t know (probably Alex Smith’s family), but Alex Smith is terrible. If he is going to do anything with his career, aside from being known as the guy the 49ers drafted instead of Aaron Rodgers, it has to be now. Otherwise, expect to see Colin Kaepernick after the bye week. The offense will once again feature a heavy dose of Frank Gore, and will need him to stay healthy. Kendall Hunter looks like he can develop into a Brain Westbrook type of player, but can he shoulder the load if when Gore gets hurt? The receivers have a lot of talent, but have not realized their potential. Vernon Davis finally lived up to the hype, but can he continue to do so without Mike Singletary? Backup Delanie Walker should have an increased role in the offense, as the 49ers want to use the two tight end set in the passing game. Michael Crabtree remains an enigma, missing all four preseason games for the third consecutive year, and having much more hype than production. Braylon Edwards can make the spectacular grab, then can drop a ball that hits him in the numbers. Josh Morgan may actually be the most oconsistant of the receivers, but is at best the number three guy.

The defense had a lot of turnover, as six starters from last season are no longer with the team. Isaac Sopoaga moves over to nose tackle, taking over for Aubrayo Franklin. Justin Smith is a solid pass rusher on the line, and might actually be the best at putting pressure on the quarterback in San Fran. The linebackers are the strength of this unit, and are why the 49ers have a solid run defense. Patrick Willis is in the discussion for best middle linebacker in the NFL, and rookie Aldon Smith will provide a much needed pass rusher from the edge. NaVarro Bowman gets a chance to start with the departure of Takeo Spikes, and looks ready for the responsibility. Getting that pass rush will be important for the secondary. While Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner are solid players, they are not even close to being elite. Forcing the quarterback into mistakes will dramatically help them, and make the secondary look better than it actually is.

The 49ers have some talent, and are taking the right steps. They need another solid draft, and they could be in contention as soon as next year.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Do not be fooled by Seattle making the playoffs and winning a playoff game into thinking that they are a good team, because they quite simply are not. They took a major step back when they allowed Matt Hasselbeck to depart as a free agent and brought in Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson was terrible to the point that his Vikings teammates flew to Mississippi to beg Brett Favre to return. Not exactly something that makes you have any confidence in Jackson as a starting quarterback, right? Marshawn Lynch had perhaps the greatest run in playoff history, but can he be the answer as the every down back? The receiving corps actually improved, with the addition of Sidney Rice and tight end Zach Miller. Adding Robert Gallery to the line helps as well, but there is not a lot of talent elsewhere on this side of the football.

The defense could actually be surprisingly good. Colin Cole, Red Bryant, and Brandon Mebane were out for a combined 18 games last year, but if healthy, will help solidify the run defense. While the front four only had 24 sacks last year, the number will improve as long as the line stays intact. Linebacker is a position that is in transition, as Lofa Tatupu was released. For the defense to truly emerge, Aaron Curry needs to live up to the hype that comes with being the fourth overall pick in the draft. Leroy Hill seems to finally be back from injury, and will add a dimension of toughness and an attitude to the defense. The secondary is flat out huge, as Pete Carroll has specifically targeted taller cornerbacks and safeties. Safety Kam Chancellor is 6’3. Cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman are 6’4 and 6’3, respectively. In fact, not one member of the secondary is under 5’10. If this experiment works out as well as Carroll is hoping it does, then the Seattle secondary could be rather formidable.

Seattle needs a lot more help on offense to be able to compete. Look for them to draft a quarterback in 2012, and attempt to drag themselves out of the cellar once again.

Friday, September 9, 2011

2011 AFC West Preview

Welcome to Part Seven of the 2011 NFL Season Preview. Here, we take a look at the AFC West. As always, the teams are listed in the order of their expected finish.

1. Oakland Raiders:If you want bold predictions and a team no one is talking about – here you go: The Oakland Raiders win the AFC West. And no, I am not heavily intoxicated as I type these words. Here’s why. The Raiders may have the best stable of running backs in the AFC, as Darren McFadden finally hit his potential, Michael Bush could start for half the teams in the league, and Taiwan Jones is a star waiting to happen. Jason Campbell displayed leadership and actually has enough skill to get the ball to his receivers, unlike the steaming pile of excrement that was JaMarcus Russell. Jacoby Ford is actually a solid receiver, and they may have uncovered a diamond in fifth round pick Denarius Moore. Derek Hagan has all the makings of a late bloomer, a la Brandon Lloyd. If they can get anything out of Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey, this could be a dangerous group. Campbell also likes to throw to the tight ends, and while the loss of Zach Miller will hurt, Kevin Boss is a solid replacement. Look for Marcel Reese to get a solid amount of work in the passing game as well.

On defense, regression is expected with the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha. The starting cornerbacks are going to be Stanford Routt, and one of a pair of rookies in DeMarcus Van Dyke or Chimdi Chekwa. However, the safeties are solid, particularly with Michael Huff. The lack of experience at the cornerback position actually should be well disguised this year, as the Raiders have the potential for a truly dominant defensive line. Remember the theory of the pass rush for fantasy defenses, as pressure on the quarterback leads to turnovers? Expect that to happen here. Richard Seymour is still an absolute beast, and Tommy Kelly is a nice compliment as a true run stuffer. The ends of the very underrated Matt Shaughnessy (expect him to be at least a Pro Bowl player this year) and Lamarr Houston can get after the quarterback. Add in a linebacker of the caliber of Rolando McClain, and there are enough pieces to make this defense work.

The Raiders will make the playoffs this year. Time for Al Davis to stop being referred to as past his prime.

2. San Diego Chargers: So, how does a team have the top statistical offense and defense, yet still manage to miss the playoffs? By having special teams so bad that Helen Keller could even see that they were terrible. Philip Rivers catapulted himself into the discussion of the top four quarterbacks in the game with his performance last season, even though he was throwing to street free agents and guys that were bagging groceries or washing cars two weeks prior to seeing the field. Having Vincent Jackson back for the entire season paired with Malcolm Floyd will only make Rivers look that much better. Antonio Gates may be slowed by a persistent foot issue, he is still the top tight end in the game. The only drawback may be in the running game, where Darren Sproles will be missed far more than people expect. Ryan Mathews needs to show that he can stop fumbling and stay healthy. Mike Tolbert was the ultimate touchdown machine last year, but can he withstand the pounding of 20+ carries if Mathews falters?

The defense was a strong unit last year, and only improved thruogh the draft and free agency. Corey Liuget is a pure run stuffer, and will add sorely needed depth to the defensive line. Free agents Bob Sanders and Takeo Spikes can make huge impacts to the defense. If Sanders can stay healthy, look for him to regain the form he had back in 2007, when he won the Defensive Player of the Year award. Coupled with Eric Weddle, the safeties are strong. Spikes, even though he has been in the league for 14 years, has yet to participate in the postseason. He can almost taste it here.

The Chargers should be a better team and have a better record. While most people expect them to make the playoffs, keep one thing in mind – Norv Turner. Hopefully the talent can overcome his deficiencies, but you never know.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have some nice pieces on offense, but there are a number of concerns. Matt Cassel has a rib injury, and is likely out for at least the first week. If the injury turns out to be serious, that means that Tyler Palko or Ricky Stanzi will see a significant number of snaps. This does not bode well for a team hoping to return to the playoffs. At running back, Jamaal Charles had a great year last season, but had fewer carries than Thomas Jones. While the plan is for Charles to get majority of the carries, there is a question as to whether or not he can hold up under the workload. Dwayne Bowe is a good receiver, but put up a career year last season. Rookie Jonathan Baldwin will help to stretch the field, and Steve Breaston is an excellent slot receiver, but is there enough talent in the receiving corps? Tight end Tony Moeaki is out for the season, costing Cassel one of his favorite targets. Who knows what is going to end up replacing him.

On defense, there are a few solid pieces. Tanba Hali put up a great season, and appears to have finally found his ability to get at the quarterback. The pass rush is solid, and should only get better with the addition of third round draft pick Justin Houston, who will step right in for Mike Vrabel. Eric Berry is a playmaker in the secondary, and will only get better with experience. While the offense could be a disaster, the Chiefs defense looks capable of keeping them in games this year.

The Chiefs had a lot of things break right for them to make the playoffs last season. A tougher schedule, questions on offense, and a regression to the mean will keep the Chiefs from contending for a playoff spot.

4. Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton is a very good quarterback who does not get the respect he deserves. People keep expecting Tim Tebow to unseat him this year, but Tebow is not even close to be ing a viable NFL quarterback. If anything should happen to Orton, expect Brady Quinn to get the nod first. While Orton is the unquestioned starter, everything else is unsettled. Brandon Lloyd is the number one receiver, but can he duplicate his success in a different system? Even if Lloyd turns out not to be a fluke, there is still the inconvenient problem of finding someone opposite to him. Demaryius Thomas is still dealing with an injury to his Achilles. Odds are that Eric Decker gets the chance, but is he ready? Turning the attention to the running game, Knowson Moreno has been a disappointment. Willis McGahee was brought in to compliment Moreno, but does he have anything left in the tank? The offense could be an absolute train wreck this year.

On defense, the Broncos were terrible. They were unable to generate anything even remotely resembling a pass rush, sacking the quarterback only 25 times last year. The return of Ellis Dumervil from injury will help, as will the selection of Von Miller with the second pick of the draft. Champ Bailey and Brain Dawkins return in the secondary, but both are almost as old as Methuselah. One has to wonder how much more they have left, if anything. Aside from the ability that Dumervil has as a pass rusher, nothing in the front seven has proven that they are capable of starting for an NFL team. While the passing defense may be decent, the Broncos will get shredded by the run.

The Broncos are going to have a rough season, yet will be just good enough to avoid being able to draft Andrew Luck. The next few years will be long in Denver.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

2011 NFC South Preview

Continuing with our annual football preview, we take a look at the NFC South today. As always, the teams are listed in order of expected finish.

New Orleans Saints: The fact that the Saints were able to make the playoffs with all of the injuries they dealt with last year is nothing less than miraculous. Sean Payton actually prefers to pound the football, regardless of how prolific the Saints passing game is with Drew Brees, Marques Colston, and Robert Meachem. The plethora of injuries suffered at the the running back position led the Saints to have to give significant carries to such luminaries as Julius Jones and Ladell Betts. And yet, they still won eleven games last year. The offensive line received an upgrade with the addition of Olin Kreutz, and Darren Sproles will take over the Reggie Bush job. Despite not being as much of a name, Sproles is probably better at what the Saints want him to do than Bush was. Jeremy Shockley left as a free agent, but the Saints actually upgraded with second year player Jimmy Graham.

The defense had it’s issues last year, particularly stopping the run. This was on full display for the world to see when Marshawn Lynch essentially ran over the entire Saints defense en route to one of the best touchdown runs in NFL history. To rectify this, the Saints drafted Cameron Jordan, who will start from Day 1. New Defensive tackles Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers were signed as free agents, and will make it difficult to move the ball through the middle of the line. The Saints need to put pressure on the quarterback in order to protect their secondary, where the only playmaker they really have is safety Malcolm Jenkins. The linebackers are getting younger, as new faces will be starting around Johnathan Vilma, who has entirely resurrected his career in New Orleans. Expect a dramatic improvement on this side of the ball.

The Saints improved dramatically, and should be considered a legit contender.

2. Atlanta Falcons: There is a lot of hype surrounding the Falcons this year to be a major player in the Super Bowl hunt this year, but that is completely asinine. In theory, the addition of Julio Jones should help Roddy White and Matt Ryan, but he is a major question mark. All throughout college he displayed an ability to make great catches, but would drop passes that hit him in the chest. The only way he can help the offense is by being a deep decoy. Expect Harry Douglas to be a better fit, and to contribute more this year. Tony Gonzalez is still considered by people to be an elite tight end, but his production is closer to Todd Heap than anything else. He is elite in name only. Michael Turner is getting older, and, let’s face it, is due to slow down as he approaches his 30th birthday.

The defense is, again, not as good as advertised. They play a base 4-3 without anything exotic. The coverage packages are conservative and vanilla. For them to be any good, they need to generate a pass rush. John Abraham continued his revival in 2010, but the rest of the line was unable to generate much pressure on the quarterback. Enter Ray Edwards, who signed a lucrative contract as a free agent to attempt to be the answer. This is a risky proposition, as Edwards never posted double digit sacks, despite playing with the Williams Wall and Jared Allen in Minnesota. How will he fare when he becomes the target of double teams? The linebackers, headed by a healthy Curtis Lofton, are solid. Sean Weatherspoon may be a future star at linebacker, but he needs to stay healthy. The secondary is average, and plays assignment based football. Brent Grimes is solid, but Dunta Robinson needs to recapture his form from back in Houston.

The Falcons should be good, but not great. They will be on the cusp for a wild card slot.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs are an extremely young team that had a lot of things go well for them last year. While they managed to win 10 games, only one came against a squad with a winning record, and that was when the Saints sat their players on week 17. The Bucs will need to continue their progression, particularly on offense. Josh Freeman enters his second full season as the starter, and looks like he could be a legitimate starting quarterback. In fact, he seems destined to become another Roethlisberger type, only wihtout the off-field incidents. Rookie free agent LeGarrette Blount came out of nowhere to gain over 1000 yards, depsite only starting eight games. Four round draft pick Mike Williams exploded, leading the Bucs in receiving yards and touchdowns. Kellen Winslow is still a top tight end, but they need to find a second receiver. Arrelious Benn was hurt last year and is expected to get that job, but Dezmon Briscoe may be the eventual starter there.

The defense, much like the offense, needs to progress. The defensive line could start players that are all either rookies or second year players. Mason Foster will take over for Barrett Ruud, who was the Bucs leading tackler last year. However, Ruud did not make a lot of plays, so they drafted what they feel is an upgrade. The secondary still have the venerable Ronde Barber, and talented plays like Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson. However, Jackson is coming off a year long suspension, and Talib has had a number of legal issues since entering the NFL. The biggest issue will be finding leadership. While Barber is still around, someone needs to step up and be ready to take that mantle when he retires. Chances are, it will be Gerard McCoy.

The Bucs will make strides this year, but it will not show in the record. They are, however, a team on the rise.

4. Carolina Panthers: Let’s talk about the positives here first – the running game has three solid backs, and they still have the good Steve Smith. Greg Olsen will provide a nice red zone target, and help the young quarterbacks when they are running for their lives. Now for the rest of the team. Cam Newton managed to parlay one good season in college into being the first pick overall in the 2011 draft, just one year after the Panthers drafted Jimmy Clausen in the second round. That essentially was the equivalent of lighting a draft choice on fire. Clausen may not have been great, but Newton will be worse. Remember Akili Smith? Meet this generations version – Akili 2.0. They have not had a number two receiver since Mushin Muhammad left the first time, and they even brought him back in an attempt to give Steve Smith some help. At this point in time, Smith may as well just sit down on the field during plays to force his way out of town.

The defense has it’s bright spots. Charles Johnson stepped into the void left by Julius Peppers, and performed at a level that was completely unexpected. Terrell McClain could be a beast in the 4-3, and will help the Panthers stuff the run. Also helping the defense is the return of several veterans that had to deal with injuries last year. Thomas Davis may finally be healthy, and Jon Beason is an extremely talented player. The secondary has solid starters, but less than nothing for depth. The Panthers will try to blitz often in passing situations in order to allievate pressure on that group.

The Panthers are not as bad as they were last year, but they are not that much better either. It’s going to be another long year in Carolina.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

2011 AFC South Preview

Welcome to Part Five of the 2011 NFL Preview. This time, we look at the AFC South. As always, the teams are listed in the expected order of where they should finish.

1. Indianapolis Colts:The Colts entire season comes down to whether or not the Peyton Manning neck injury is as bad as has been rumored. Kerry Collins, who has proven to be a serviceable NFL quarterback, simply cannot replicate what Manning is to the offense - essentially a second offensive coordinator. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark can help make a quarterback look good; yet beyond them, the offense is not as good as one would think. Austin Collie is one hit from thinking he's Batman, Pierre Garcon has trouble with dropped passes and clearly frustrates Manning, and Blair White is still very raw. The running game has essentially been non-existent since the days of Edgerrin James, which is pathetic considering how much they spread the field. The offensive line should be better with the drafting of Ben Ijalana and Anthony Castonzo, but again, there is not enough depth.

The defense is actually in a state of transition. Known as a Cover 2 defense from when Tony Dungy moved over from Tampa, defensive co-ordinator Larry Coyer wants to play more man coverage and diversify how they attack the pass. THis switch cannot hurt, as the Colts were torched on deeper passes over the middle. Yet, the Colts did nothing to upgrade their secondary, simply resigning players they already had. The Colts were also terrible against the run, but they did take steps to address this. The additions of Jamaal Anderson, Tommie Harris, and Drake Nevis should improve their ability to stop the run.

The Colts will go as far as Peyton Manning can take them. If he plays all 16 games, they're a playoff team. Otherwise, they are 5-11.

2. Houston Texans: The Texans are a team that is consistently less than the sum of their parts. With Arian Foster, the Texans have an absolute beast int he running game who has an incredible ability to gain yards after contact. Matt Schaub is possibly a ten top quarterback, and Andre Johnson is on of the top three receivers in the NFL. While Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter are not about to scare opposing secondaries, they do enough to help open the field up. Tight end Owen Daniels is as good as they come when he's healthy.

The defense is undergoing a transition from a 4-3 to Wade Phillips' 3-4. Every year when Phillips goes to a new team, there is a dramatic improvement over the previous year. Mario Williams is shifting to linebacker, in the hybrid mold of DeMarcus Ware and Brian Orakpo. Brian Cushing is a stud linebacker, and the Texans are solid against the run. The problem is in the secondary, where they give up majority of their big plays. In an attempt to rectify this, the Texans went out and signed Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning. The defense still needs depth and another cornerback, but the cupboard is not as bare as it had been in previous years.

Is this the year the Texans finally get it together? If not, Gary Kubiak is going to have the axe fall on him after the season.

3. Tennessee Titans: The entire offense is about Chris Johnson and how long Matt Hasselbeck keeps the seat warm for Jake Locker. Johnson is an elite back, capable of doing practically anything with the football. The entire offense will be set up off of Johnson, making his holdout through camp that much more important. Will he be ready to play at the elite level they need right off the bat? In the passing game, there are a couple of pieces in Kenny Britt and Jared Cook. Unfortunately, Britt has million dollar ability coupled with a ten cent brain. The rest of the receivers are a collection of underachievers and disappointments. Where have you gone Frank Wycheck and Kevin Dyson?

The defense is also undergoing change. Expect new defensive co-ordinator Jerry Gray to be more aggresive than the Titans had been in the past. This is partially to cover up for the smaller and less talented line, and partially to attempt to replace the production of Jason Babin, who signed with Philadelphia. Otherwise, the opposing quarterback may as well order pizza and pull out a lawn chair to work on his tan with the time he'll have back there. Cortland Finnegan is an island of competence in that defense now, the only true playmaker left. Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner might develop into solid pieces, but they will need to accelerate that curve for the Titans to have an effective defense this season.

This is going to be a season of turmoil for a team taht was once the model of stability. Rebuilding will be ugly, but at least Chris Johnson is going to be fun to watch.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars: News flash to the Jaguars organization - you do not release your starting quarterback five days before the season starts and expect to be competitive. Especially if you replace that quarterback with Luke McCown, who is basically there to absorb the beating that would otherwise go to Blaine Gabbert. This is unfortunate, because they do have some nice receivers in Mike Thomas, rookie Cecil Shorts, and tight end Marcedes Lewis. If healthy, Maurice Jones -Drew is a bowling ball of tough yardage, but there is no depth behind him with the season ending injury to Rashad Jennings. This is going to be a long season on offense.

On defense, a lot is made about the Jaguars lack of a pass rush. While some of this can be attributed to poor drafting along the defensive line, this is also due to a philosophical flaw on this side of the ball. The Jaguars do not want their defensive linemen to play a physical style of football. Quite simply, it is nearly impossible to get at the quarterback with a defensive line that is not physical. On the whole, the defense has improved, as linebackers Clint Session and Paul Posluszny, along with defensive end Matt Roth and safety Dawan Landry were brought in. Session and Posluszny will need to make plays, and Landry should help Rashean Mathis in the secondary. Despite this, the Jaguars are still sorely lacking in talent on this side of the ball as well.

This is another team who has nothing to look forward to other than the inevitable beginning to a rookie quarterback's career. Look for the Jaguars to clean house after this season.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

2011 NFC North Preview

For the fourth of our eight part 2011 NFL preview, we take a look at the NFC North. The teams are listed in order of where we expect them to finish.

 1. Green Bay Packers: Last year, the Packers won the Super Bowl despite getting decimated by injuries all over the place. With the loss of every down back Ryan Grant, they were forced to rely on Aaron Rodgers when a viable alternative never developed. Rodgers delivered, and immediately placed himself in the discussion of top three quarterbacks in the NFL. With a healthy receiving corps now that Jermichael Finley and Donald Driver are back, the explosive Greg Jennings, and the potential breakout candidate James Jones; the offense can only get better. Grant is now going to be in a time share with playoff hero James Starks, adding a top notch running game to the elite passing game.

Usually, when a team is so dominant on one side of the ball, they are deficient on the other (we’re looking at you, Indianapolis Colts). That is simply not the case here. While the losses of Cullen Jenkins and Nick Barnett will hurt, they simply have players waiting in the wings that they will plug in. The line is still deep and quite capable of pressuring the quarterback despite being a 3-4. The linebackers are still a group of playmakers, headlined by Clay Matthews Jr. The secondary can not only play man coverage with the best of the NFL, but are all quite capable at blitzing from the edge.

An already deep team actually got better in the draft, despite having the last pick. This could be another Super Bowl run.

2. Detroit Lions: In theory, the Lions will go only as far as Matthew Stafford can bring them. Unfortunately, Stafford has been injured in each of his first two seasons. Fortunately for the Lions, this simply shows that they may be the deepest of any team at quarterback, as the three Lions QBs totaled 4001 yards, 26 touchdowns, and only 16 interceptions. Of course, it helps to have an absolute stud receiver in Calvin Johnson to throw to, but he has help. Brandon Pettigrew is a solid tight end, and the selection of Titus Young allows Nate Burleson to work the slot, where he is better suited. The biggest question is whether or not Jahvid Best can put together a complete season. He showed flashes of pure brilliance prior to his turf toe injury last year, but he will need to be the playmaker the Lions front office expects him to be.

On defense, the Lions are much improved. Ndamukong Suh may very well be the best defensive tackle at getting to the quarterback since Warren Sapp was in his prime. Adding Nick Fairley along side of him just makes his job that much easier. The defensive ends, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch, are both solid, and will benefit from the one-on-one matchups they will receive. Linebacker, which was a major weakness for the past few years, has been dramatically upgraded. Stephen Tulloch, Justin Durant, and DeAndre Levy are the best trio of linebackers that the Lions have had in years. The secondary finally has something there aside from third year safety Louis Delams. Chris Houston was resigned, and Eric Wright, a very underrated corner, was brought in as the second starter. This defense could be dominant if they stay healthy.
We here at Mr. Dave’s Sports Blog are not afraid to go out on a limb, so here it is – the Lions make the playoffs as the number five seed AND win a playoff game. Get used to Detroit playing good football.

3. Chicago Bears:Last year, the Bears won the division and made the NFC Championship game. That may as well have been in a different century. Statistically, the Bears should have been a nine win team last year, and it is hard to see where they will be much better than that this year. Jay Cutler is back, but does he have the respect of the locker room and the offense after he seemingly quit on them last year? Their offensive line is still a work in progress, and may have more holes than the slice of Swiss cheese on my sandwich. The biggest acquisition on offense was Roy Williams, who did have success with Mike Martz in Detroit, but is still exceedingly overrated. The key to the offense should by Matt Forte, who is a solid runner and pass catcher. Lovie Smith likes to run the ball, and Martz likes to throw to the running back, yet there are times when Forte is forgotten in that offense.

The defense still have a lot of name recognition with Brian Urlacher, Juluis Peppers, and Lance Briggs; but are they really any good? The defense is old, and is more about executing their scheme than reacting and chasing down plays. While the Bears were the second best rushing defense last year, is it truly feasible to expect them to maintain that pace? There is absolutely no depth behind the starters anywhere on this defense, so any time lost to injury will be a major concern.

The Bears are going to drop to the lower half of the division this year, and, if they are not careful, may sink all the way to the bottom.

4. Minnesota Vikings: Coming off the debacle that was last year and Brett Favre, the Vikings are a team that has something to prove. By trading for Donovan McNabb, they not only got seven years younger at quarterback, but brought in someone that personifies that mindset. McNabb will have a chip on his shoulder and will be motivated to show that he can still play after being unceremoniously dumped by the non-genius Mike Shanahan. The passing game is going to be designed to play to his strengths, and feature rollouts, bootlegs, and have McNabb only scan half the field for plays. Sidney Rice was allowed to leave through free agency, making Percy Harvin the de facto number one receiver. Harvin is a playmaker, but may be better suited to his role in the slot, and occasional use out of the backfield. If that happens to be the case, expect the tight ends to get a lot of work this year. And, of course, having a running back the caliber of Adrian Peterson helps alleviate a lot of pressure on the passing game. Now that Peterson appears to be over his early fumbling problems, he is the best back in the game.

Defensively, there is a lot of flux. The entire defensive line is in disarray, as the only starter from Week One last year that will be playing on Opening Day is Jared Allen. Kevin Williams will miss two games from his long-awaited suspension, and Pat Williams and Ray Edwards departed as free agents. The players expected to take their spots are not nearly as talented as their predecessors. Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson are playmakers at linebacker, and Antoine Winfield is one of the better cornerbacks in the game, but they are rather deficient on this side of the ball. The secondary will need the pass rush to re-emerge for them to avoid being torched frequently.

If everything breaks right, the Vikings may be in the hunt for a playoff berth late into December. However, it is more likely that December is all about seeing what Christian Ponder can do behind center.

2011 AFC North Preview

For the third of our eight part 2011 NFL preview, we take a look at the AFC North. The teams are listed in order of where we expect them to finish.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ignore all of the things that happened this past offseason involving the players on the Steelers. They are no longer strangers to controversial downtime after the entire Roethlisberger situation last year. In fact, the Steelers almost seem to thrive on such things. Roethlisberger put up one of his better seasons last year, and with a full 16 game slate this year, should do even better. While Hines Ward is the recognized name amongst the receiving corps, he may only be their third best option. Mike Wallace is a playmaker, and Antonio Brown adds a secondary speed element to the group. Jericho Cothcery and Heath Miller are steady performers. At running back, Rashard Mendenhall showed that he was truly capable of being an every down back, and forces teams to pay attention to the running game.

On defense, there are weaknesses, particularly in the secondary. While Troy Polamalu is essentially a guided missile with hair, he needs to stay healthy for the Steelers to be what they want to be. No other safety is that instinctive when it comes to finding the ball. The corners, however, are a major weak spot of the team. However, they are often hidden due to a strong pass rush, and a great corps of linebackers led by Lawrence Timmons and James Harrison.

The formula has not changed in several decades – a tough football team with a strong defense. There is not reason why the Steelers will not be a Super Bowl contender again this year.

2. Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco believes that he is a top tier quarterback. If he is, then he had better prove it this season. While he did lose his favored targets in Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, the receiving corps are actually better and deeper than at any point in time during his tenure in Baltimore. Holdover Anquan Boldin is joined by the newly acquired Lee Evans and second round draft pick Torrey Smith. Evans and Smith are both speedsters, which will allow Boldin to work the middle of the field, where he is more comfortable. At running back is Ray Rice, a complete player in the backfield with his ability to run and catch the ball. Now that he has a true fullback in Vonta Leach in front of him, he could be in line for a career season. The only weakness on offense appears to be along the line, where a lot of faith is being placed on Bryant McKinnie to be able to protect Flacco’s blindside. If he falters, then it could be a long season.

The defense, long thought of as the strength of the Ravens, is actually a question mark. There are no guarantees that mainstays Ed Reed or Ray Lewis will be able to stay healthy all year. Without those two, the defense loses a great deal of it’s edge and toughness. The cornerbacks were pedestrian at best last season, forcing them to draft the talented Jimmy Smith in the first round. Smith will start, but expect growing pains. The once feared pass rush was nothing more than a shadow of itself, with the Ravens holding back on the blitz to protect the secondary. For the Ravens to truly be a contender, the defensive line and linebackers need to step up in a big way.

The Ravens might be more talented on paper than the Steelers, but they are a worse team. They will go as far as Flacco can take them.

3. Cleveland Browns: While Colt McCoy should show some improvement this season, the offense is still all about Peyton Hillis. Before running out of steam last year, Hillis was a complete beast, rushing for almost 1200 yards, catching passes, running people over, and seemingly scoring at will. While Hillis will remain the focal point of the offense, he will finally get some rest, with the return of Montario Hardesty. The passing game should be improved, as McCoy has Greg Little and Mohamed Massaquoi as potential playmakers at the receiver spot. Ben Watson showed that he could be relied upon as a receiving threat last year, and is a good outlet for McCoy.

The defense is improving, but has a lot of holes. Outside of the two young defensive tackles in Phil Taylor and Ahtyba Rubin. Otherwise, there is little depth and a whole lot of nothing going out there when the opposition has the ball. Pressure on the quarterback was non-existant, and when the Browns blitzed, the secondary was torched like a creepy old woman during the Salem Witch Trials. They are also making the transition from the 3-4 defense of the past six years to a 4-3 defense. Expect this unit to be terrible for a couple of years.

The Browns are putting pieces together and getting some solid players. Regardless, they are still a couple of years from contending.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: Talk about your train wrecks of an organization. In this past offseason, they alienated their franchise quarterback, who got tired of the losing culture fostered in Cincy. They got rid of their top receiver in Chad Ochocinco, who gladly accepted a trade to New England. This must have felt like a ten year felon getting paroled. Rookie Andy Dalton is in for a long year, since his best weapon on offense may be another rookie in A.J. Green. Expect the passing game to feature a lot of short passes, with the occasional bomb to Green. The running game is headed by the wildly inconsistent, and semi incarcerated, Cedric Benson. Behind him, there is not much.

The defense has essentially one playmaker, pass rusher Carlos Dunlap. And even he is a part time player, as he is extremely suspect against the run. Rey Maualuga is a solid linebacker, and has been joined by newcomers Manny Lawson and Thomas Howard. The corps is deeper and better, but not exactly amongst the best in the AFC. The secondary has Taylor Mays and Nate Clements, but the defense as a whole lacks overall speed. In fact, the best player on this team may be their punter, which makes sense since he will have plenty of opportunities this year.

The Bengals are an embarrassment of a franchise, and are in the midst of yet another rebuilding process. How this team has any fans left is beyond me. They may take a run at the second 0-16 season in NFL history.

2011 NFC East Preview

For the second of our eight part 2011 NFL preview, we take a look at the NFC East. The teams are listed in order of where we expect them to finish.

1. Dallas Cowboys: Yes, the Eagles are the trendy pick to win the division, but the Cowboys are deeper. Tony Romo, while overrated, is coming back to a very good offense with a much improved offensive line. The offense took off last year when Jason Garrett became the head coach, and the team started to run the ball more. Expect this to continue this season, as the triumvirate of running backs in Felix Jones, Tashard Choice, and DeMarco Murray are extremely good. While Roy Williams was released, this is addition by subtraction as he was nothing more than their fourth option on offense. Dez Bryant is expected to step up this year, while Miles Austin and Jason Witten provide their typical steady play.

On defense, the Cowboys will rebound from what was a statistically bad season for them. In their base defense, they allowed ten more touchdowns than they gave up prior to Wade Phillips getting fired. Afterwards, when they focused on fundamentals, they only gave up three more touchdowns than they scored. With Rob Ryan calling the plays and designing the schemes, the defense is bound to improve. While there may be an initial learning curve, expect DeMarcus Ware and the rest of that defense to wreak havoc upon the opposition.

You heard it here first – the Cowboys will be dramatically improved and win the NFC East.

2. Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles entire season hinges on Michael Vick. While they have an offense made up of explosive playmakers in DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and the Not-Something-Sean Jeremy Maclin; Vick is the key to the engine. Should he go down, Vince Young would be the quarterback stepping in, which leaves one to wonder how he’ll handle an offense that will not protect him with a running game. As it stands, Young will probably start around five games this season, as Vick has yet to play a full slate of games in the NFL. Also decreasing the odds that he stays healthy is the offensive line, which might resemble a turnstile at points in time this year. There are questions at center, right tackle and left guard, as well as a rookie at right guard. With the pass rushes that the Eagles will face, particularly in division, Vick may have a hard time staying upright.

The biggest moves of the offseason for the Eagles came on the defensive side of the ball. With the trade of Kevin Kolb to the Arizona Cardinals, the Eagles acquired Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, aka the actually good cornerback named Cromartie. They also signed the top free agent in Nnamdi Asomugha, which, along with Asante Samuel, gives the Eagles a trio of cornerbacks unlike any in NFL history. They also brought in more depth on the defensive line with the signing of Cullen Jenkins, formerly of the Green Bay Packers. Yet, linebacker, which was a weakness for them last season, was ignored, aside from the drafting of Casey Mathews. Given the aggressiveness of the line and the blitz schemes typical of the Eagles defense, the linebackers will need to step up in a major way.

There are questions here, even if people regard the Eagles as a lock for the Super Bowl. If all the pieces fall into place, they will have a deep run. If not, it could be scary in Philly this year.

3. New York Giants: The Giants are, quite simply, a team that needs to rediscover their offensive identity. Over the past couple of seasons, they have gone away from running the ball and have let Eli Manning air it out more. This season, expect Tom Coughlin to remember that he does not have the good Manning brother, and get back to pounding the ball with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. This will be partially be design, but also out of necessity, as they lost key pieces to their offense in Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. Can Travis Beckum and whoever they plug in as the third receiver make enough plays? And will Eli have enough time to throw the ball, as the offensive line has a new left tackle in William Beatty, to go along with a new center in David Baas. This season should serve as a reminder to Eli that he really is not in the same class as Tom Brady or his brother.

On defense, the key is going to be whether or not they have enough players in the secondary. Already, the Giants have lost starter Terrel Thomas and two reserves go out for the year with injuries. Top pick Prince Amukamara is out until at least October. Will they be able to stop the pass? While the defensive line is the best part of the defense, they need the other positions to make plays as well. The linebacking corps, which was a complete disaster last season, should be improved with the addition of Greg Jones. However, this is a squad that could give up far more points that one is accustomed to from a Giants defense.

The Giants simply do not have enough pieces to compete with the Cowboys and the Eagles. Expect a losing record this year, and a new head coach next season.

4. Washington Redskins: So-called genius Mike Shanahan took an already bad situation and somehow made it worse. First, the debacle that will be the quarterback position is going to be manned by has-been Rex Grossman to start the season, until he is replaced by the never-was John Beck. The receiving corps is entirely Santana Moss and a lot of nothing. While third round pick Leonard Hankerson has the potential to develop into a playmaker, it will not be in time to matter for this season. Chris Cooley, their most consistent receiver, has been battling a knee issue all preseason, and may not be effective this year. As such, the Redskins will need to rely on a running game that features Tim Hightower, who has done nothing in his NFL career to show that he can be a starting running back. While Ryan Torain and Roy Helu are serviceable, there is a distinct lack of talent on this side of the ball.

On defense, expect more of the same. Last year, the Redskins were flat out awful against the pass, and aside from Brain Orakpo, could not get anyone near the quarterback on a consistent basis. While several moves during the offseason will help them going forward, this is still a major work in progress. Ryan Kerrigan and Jarvis Jenkins look like they will be playmakers someday, but will it be for Shanahan or the next head coach? This team will need to figure out a way to stop people on defense, and that looks like a major challenge.

The Redskins are looking at winning the Andrew Luck Lottery this year. Expecting three wins may be overstating their competence.

Monday, September 5, 2011

2011 AFC East Preview

For the first of our eight part 2011 NFL preview, we take a look at the AFC East. The teams are listed in order of where we expect them to finish.

1. New England Patriots: After a couple of years of terrible draft classes (with the release of Brandon Meriweather, the entire 2007 draft class is no longer a part of the Patriots) and a shift away from their identity, the Patriots loaded up for a run this season. Getting back to their roots, they traded for a couple of players that were considered malcontents on their previous teams in Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. They also drafted running backs in the second and third rounds in Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, giving them a stable of runners that they have not had in a long time. This will allow Tom Brady to get back to what he did when they were winning Super Bowls – manage the game and not have to try to win the games in a shootout.

On defense, the Patriots may have finally found that pass rush they have been missing for the last few years. They have one of the top pairs of defensive tackles  that can be found in the NFL with a properly motivated Haynesworth and Vince Wilfork. The defensive ends are deep, and capable of getting into the backfield. With the depth at cornerback, the linebackers will be able to blitz more, letting a player like Jerod Mayo become more of a playmaker than just a tackling machine. Plus, the loss of Meriweather is addition by subtraction, as he proved time and time again to be incapable of playing within the system and displayed a consistent lack of football instincts.

The Patriots will win the AFC East, and should be considered one of the contenders for the Super Bowl

2. Miami Dolphins: Chad Henne was not nearly as bad as everyone thinks. He completed almost 62% of his passes, and set a career high for passing yards. People point to his 19 interceptions as proof that Henne cannot play quarterback, but he was incredibly unlucky in that department. As he throws an imminently catchable ball, only one of his potential interceptions was dropped, as opposed to the league average of eight. Put him at the league average, then Henne only threw 12 interceptions last year, which is a decent total. Also hurting Henne was a complete lack of a running game, and a terrible offensive line. Both have been upgraded, as Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas will now share the load carrying the ball. Bush, in particular, should be a major boost for Henne, as that will give him a second playmaker on offense to pair with Brandon Marshall.

The defense is very underrated, and very young in the secondary. The defensive line is quite capable of getting to the quarterback, and linebacker Cameron Wake is amongst the best pass rushers in the entire game. Vontae Davis appears ready to become a superstar, and Seth Smith is another developing player in the backfield. While the Dolphins were solid against the run last year, they did have problems with covering tight ends and runningbacks. To address this, Channing Crowder was sent packing, and the Dolphins brought in speedy Kevin Burnett, who can play every down for that defense.

Expect major improvement from Henne this year, as the Dolphins contend for a wild card spot.

3. New York Jets: For all the bombast and bravado that is spewed forth by Rex Ryan, he typically backs it up with his team’s performance. However, this season, he has far overstated the Jets ability. Claiming that this is the best team he has had is simply fallacy. It is difficult to see where this team actually upgraded, as they lost receivers Braylon Edwards, Jericho Cotchery, and Brad Smith; only to replace them with the slower Derrick Mason and the out-of-football-for-two-years Plaxico Burress. Yes, Burress can be a red zone target for Mark Sanchez, but they lost a lot of speed and playmaking ability from the receiving corps. Running back is another question mark, as no one knows if Shonn Greene can actually be an every down back. LaDanian Thomlinson wore down as the season progressed last year, and there are concerns as to whether or not he has anything left in the tank.

On defense, there are also concerns. After their failed pursuit of Nnamdi Asomugha, the Jets resigned Antonio Cromartie, who has an undeserved reputation as a ballhawk. People look at his 18 career interceptions, but they fail to realize that 10 came in his second year in the league when he was not a full time starter. Cromartie can be exploited, as can the middle of their pass defense. The linebackers and safeties are solid against the run, but struggle in passing situations. On defensive line, they lost Shaun Ellis to free agency (to the Patriots) and defensive tackle Kris Jenkins retired. To replace them, they drafted two rookies in Muhammad Wilkerson and Kenrick Ellis. Can these two step right in and make the major contributions they will need to? In short, this defense is not nearly as good as they are perceived to be.

The Jets have enough talent to finish around .500, but they are not a playoff team.

4. Buffalo Bills: The biggest question with the Bills is Why? Why do they even bother to show up? Why do they make the moves that they do? Why?!

In all seriousness, the Bills could have just as easily won seven games last year, as they played a number of teams tough, only to lose in the last few minutes of games. Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven to be a solid quarterback, although they desperately need to address this position and get a quarterback of the future. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller should be a solid tandem at running back, but Spiller is looking more and more like Reggie Bush with each passing game – nothing more than a situational back. The receivers are young and are all major question marks after Lee Evans was traded to Baltimore. While Steve Johnson exploded on the scene last year, can he keep up the pace as the focus of the opposing defenses? And what else will they line up with Johnson in the passing game?

The defense has a strong defensive line with absolute stud Kyle Williams anchoring the middle. Marcell Dareus could very well develop into another dominant lineman, giving them two solid building blocks there. The linebackers could be quite solid, depending on whether or not Shawne Merriman can stay on the field. While he was once a dominant player, he has been injury prone over the last few seasons. Arthur Moats (also known as the player that ended Brett Favre’s career) looks like a playmaker. The loss of Paul Posluszny hurts, especially if rookie Kelvin Sheppard is not up to the task of starting in the middle. They also signed former Packer Nick Barnett, which is a major upgrade at the linebacker position. A secondary that was amongst the worst in the NFL last year was upgraded during the draft, most notably with the pick of Aaron Williams. With the resigning of Drayton Florence, the defense should be dramatically better, but will it matter?

The Bills have some nice building blocks on defense, but they need to upgrade that offense dramatically in the next couple of drafts. They simply do not have the horses to compete in the AFC East.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Fantasy Football Busts

As the NFL season approaches, people are gearing up for their fantasy football drafts. Some have happened already, yet most will take place this weekend, as it is the weekend before the season begins.

Yesterday, we provided some names to remember for later in the year in our Deep Sleepers post. Today, we’re going to provide a few busts to avoid this upcoming year. Again, the ‘experts’ continue to trot out the same bust players (like Mike Vick), so you won’t get that here. What you will get are people that are flying under the bust radar. Such as….

Quarterback - Tony Romo: First, let us point out that the Cowboys offense actually performed better when Romo was injured last season. Next, as almost useless as Roy Williams the receiver was, he is a better receiving option than Kevin Ogletree or whatever else they are sticking as their third receiver. Third, as explosive as Dez Bryant can potentially be, he is still very unproven. Fourth, they Cowboys are going to run the ball more with Jason Garrett as their head coach than they did with Wade Phillips. Add this all together, and it spells a season that may be better for the Cowboys as a team, but worse for Romo in fantasy leagues. Romo is right now the seventh quarterback going in drafts on average, but he will likely finish outside the top 12 in points.

Other potential busts: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Mike Vick

Running Back – Jamaal Charles: A lot of people have been on the Maurice Jones-Drew as a bust bandwagon, yet they love Jamaal Charles. While Jones-Drew is definitely bust material, Charles has a lot more red flags when looking at his situation. Charles is going in the top five based off of his potential and his absolutely insane 6.4 yards per carry last season. Despite all of the yards he managed to accumulate, he only scored a total of eight touchdowns, two of which came in one game. While he is supposed to get a larger share of the workload, there are a lot of questions as to whether or not he can handle it. Already, he has a leg injury. Plus, there is still the spectre of Thomas Jones lurking in the background. If he loses even one yard per carry, then his rushing total is only just over 1200 yards. Basically, this would make him Peyton Hillis without the scores. The potential for justifying his selection is here, however it is more likely he will put up numbers that would be acquired with a fourth round pick.

Other potential busts: Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden

Wide Receiver – Greg Jennings: Here is someone that is not getting a lot of run as a possible bust. Yet, there is a statistical trend that shows that Jennings may not live up to being the fourth or fifth receiver off the board. Specifically, prior to the injury to Jermichael Finley, Jennings averaged six targets a game. After the injury, that number increased to 8.2. Not only is Finley healthy, but the Packers added a second solid receiving tight end in the draft in D.J. Williams. This way, in case Finley gets hurt again, they have someone that can step in and make plays. Added to this is the return of Ryan Grant, who missed all but one game last year due to injury. Having Grant back in the lineup means that the Packers will run the ball more, which further limits the potential for touches for Jennings. Let someone else draft him based on last season.

Other potential busts: Dwayne Bowe, Dez Bryant, Steve Johnson

Tight End – Vernon Davis: By all statistical measurements, Davis had a monster year last season, as Mike Singletary was able to finally tap into his immense potential. Yet, in a game by game breakdown, there are troubling signs. Davis had three games last year with only one reception. He had eight games with 36 or fewer yards. Davis was the ultimate boom or bust play at tight end last year. Add to this the statements made by Jim Harbaugh about how Frank Gore is going to be the focal point of the offense, and how they would like to work Delanie Walker into the passing game more, and this spells a backslide for Davis statistically.

Other potential busts: Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, Owen Daniels