Tuesday, November 29, 2011

The Value Of A Point Guard

With the Celtics rumored to be open to moving Rajon Rondo, there has been some speculation as to why they would be willing to move such an up and coming star, especially when the Big Three are on their last ride. Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen are both in the final year of their contracts, and will not be returning unless they accept a lot less than they are currently making. Paul Pierce is a free agent in a couple of seasons, and exactly how much will he have left by that point? All signs point to Rondo being the guy that the Celtics try to build their future around.

But what value does a superstar point guard actually have? Over the past thirty years, only Isaiah Thomas and Magic Johnson have won championships while falling under the superstar classification. More often than not, the point guard is nothing more than a veteran presence who knows how to distribute the basketball, can hit the occasional shot, and can sink free throws. The point guard does not really need to be a scoring threat – just someone that knows how to play the game fundamentally well.

The point guard position, at least over the past thirty years, has thusly been grotesquely overvalued. Look at players like Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, and Chris Paul, or even John Stockton. What exactly have they won, aside from individual accolades? Meanwhile, such luminaries as a past his prime Jason Kidd, Derek Fisher, and Ron Harper have all won championships.

In fact, Tony Parker is the third best point guard to win over the last thirty years. However, he fits the concept of what winning teams need the point guard to do in terms of his passing ability, ability to hit free throws, and knowledge of the game. A ‘name’ point guard tries to take over. A solid point guard that plays the position correctly moves the ball to the best options, and puts the team in position to win. Rarely does a superstar point guard have the awareness to do just that; but when they do, you get an Isaiah Thomas or a Magic Johnson.

Trading Rajon Rondo to bring in another scoring option makes sense. Meanwhile, the Celtics will be able to replace him with a smart, court savvy veteran who will do what the superstar point guards cannot do – help a team win a championship.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Justin Verlander And The MVP Award

The MVP award is designed to go to, literally, the most valuable player in his league. Somehow, over the years, this has morphed into the most valuable position player. The line of thinking is that, since pitchers have the Cy Young Award, the MVP should go to an every day player. This line of thought is simply asinine.

In the early days of the MVP award, the voters felt the same. Pitchers would routinely be voted as MVP’s, right on through the mid-1940′s. Then, something in the thought process of the voters changed. This was even back before the advent of the Cy Young, so they did not even have ‘their award’. In fact, the only time a pitcher won MVP between 1945 and 1986 was back in 1968, when Bob Gibson and Denny McClain both won MVP. This was mainly because no one else was even close to being worthy.

Lately, however, the way that awards are voted on has changed. The sabermetric community has brought along new statistics designed to prove a player’s true value to their team, while devaluing the old standby categories, such as wins and RBI. This become most evident back in 2009, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award, despite winning only 16 games. Then in 2010, Felix Hernandez finished 13-12, but was voted the Cy Young. Both players deserved the awards, not by conventional thinking, but by measuring their performance differently.

This train of thought had not continued along to the MVP ballot however. Then along came Justin Verlander, and his fabulous 2011 season. Not only did Verlander run away with the Cy Young, but he also managed to become Justin Verlander – MVP. Verlander is the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley back in 1992. Looking at the WAR statistic, Verlander tied Jose Bautista at 8.5. Bautista, playing for the also ran Blue Jays, finished third in the balloting.

Verlander was, by far, the most valuable player to his team’s success in a non-statistical way as well. Take Verlander off of the Tigers, and they are a third place team. Take Jacoby Ellsbury off the Red Sox, and they still do not make the playoffs. Take Bautista off the Blue Jays, they still do not make it to the playoffs. Verlander meant far more to his team’s success; which, by definition, makes him the most valuable player.

Now, people will argue that, as Verlander pitched in only 34 games, he is not as valuable as Ellsbury, who played in 158 games. This theory is easily debunked. Ellsbury had a total of 718 plate appearances, while Verlander faced 969 batters. Verlander had, by that measurement, 251 more chances to affect the game than Ellsbury did. Factoring in fielding, Ellsbury had 50 chances, while Ellsbury had 394. When adding plate appearances and total chances for Ellsbury, the total is 1112. Verlander had 1019. The difference of 93 is less than one ball per game. Games played truly has no bearing on who is most valuable, especially this year.

The Most Valuable Player is not always a position player. Hopefully this vote shows that people are beginning to realize that.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

The Tim Tebow Experiment

Well, Tim Tebow has truly made his mark on the quarterback position. After last weekend’s performance of the ages (2-8 passing, 69 yards and a touchdown) he may have set the quarterback position back eighty years. All these years later, those coaches who refused to adapt and regarded the forward pass as a fad have been proven correct.

Why bother playing the quarterback position with anything resembling skill when you can just run the ball sixty times? Why have solid arm strength and the ability to hit receivers in stride when a toddler could play roughly as well at that position? And yet, somehow the Broncos have managed to win games with this joke behind center, because the opposition is not smart enough to put nine players in the box.

In fact, Tebow’s own coach has admitted that if Tebow were in a real NFL offense that “If we were trying to run a regular offense, he’d be screwed.” That statement coming from John Fox is truly damning. Yes, everyone knew that Tebow would be a project if he stuck as a quarterback, but you would expect something resembling progress. Instead, he has regressed to the point where even his own coach does not want to see him throw the ball. And John Fox knows terrible quarterback play – he did see Jake Delhomme over his last two seasons in Carolina. Just wonder why he didn’t try the No Passing offense then….

The notion that Tebow is winning games has to be a nightmare for the Broncos organization. They were going nowhere, and gave in to the public clamoring for Tebow. They wanted to prove to the uneducated masses that Tebow, while he has a lot of heart, is not a quarterback. In this, they have been proven correct – Tebow is most definately not even close to an NFL quarterback.

Yet, the Broncos inexplicably manage to win games that Tebow starts, and somehow find themselves in the race for the AFC West. While this may be due to Tebow being Football Jesus and having magical powers (such as causing amnesia to opposing defenses so that they forget that the Broncos only run the football now), in all likelihood this is due to the unorthodox gameplan. Remember, the Miami Dolphins managed to win games with the Wildcat when it first came out. How long did that last? Well, the Broncos offensive playbook straight from 1904 probably has the shelf life of yogurt on the dashboard of a car during an Arizona summer.

In the end, expect sanity to win out, and the Broncos to fall back to Earth hard. Even Football Jesus cannot cause that many miracles.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Brian Schottenheimer Is An Idiot

Let us suppose, for a brief moment in time, that you happen to be an offensive coordinator. Now, let us imagine that, while in this role, you happen to be facing the worst pass defense in the NFL. A defense that cannot get pressure on the quarterback, cannot cover, and routinely gets torched on plays downfield. This defense is starting street free agents, career backups, and people that even the most die-hard NFL fans have never even heard of. Naturally, the game plan to face this team would be to throw on them until they prove they can stop the pass, right?

Naturally, that would be the logical game plan. Unfortunately for the New York Jets, they have Brian Schottenheimer as their offensive coordinator, a man whose very lineage screams blatant incompetence in even the most mundane of tasks. This ‘offensive mastermind’ put together a brilliant game plan; and by ‘brilliant’, we mean that in the Guinness sense of the term. This man could not create a worse scheme even if he were to channel his inner Terl from ‘Battlefield Earth’.  Of course, only a Schottenheimer would decide to run constantly against the league’s worst pass defense! They’ll never see THAT coming!

Now, Schottenheimer obviously was staring blankly into space or contemplating important life questions, such as how he is still employed, when the Patriots lost their starting cornerback and safety. He was blissfully unaware that backup receiver Julian Edelman was their nickle defensive back due to all the injuries. And of course, this receiver put a hit on LaDanian Thomlinson that will probably keep him from playing in Week 11, proving once again that even soap bubbles are more durable than he is.

Even if Schottenheimer was incapable of noticing such things, he must have seen videos of the Steelers torching the Patriots secondary. Or the Giants torching the Patriots secondary. Or the Bills torching the Patriots secondary. Or, well, anyone that has played the Patriots this season. They made even the immortal Chad Henne look like a real NFL quarterback. Then again, maybe ol’ Rex Ryan was dominating the film room, watching footage of people’s feet.

In the end, the lack of recognition of the Patriots defense led to the Jets downfall. And has once again proven that Schottenheimer is German for ‘incompetent’.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Chad Ocho Cinco's Role

With the news of Albert Haynesworth being released from the New England Patriots today, the attention has naturally turned to their other big acquisition, Chad Ocho Cinco. Already, pundits have begun wondering as to when he will be released. However, despite Ocho Cinco’s lack of production on the field, and his supposed inability to grasp the playbook, neither Bill Belichick nor Tom Brady appear to be overly concerned. Why would that be?

Perhaps the biggest clue to the solution would be to take a look at how the roster, and subsequently, the offense, is constructed. As had been previously mentioned on the blog, Ocho Cinco is presently nothing more than the fifth receiving option at best. In fact, the argument could be made that both Danny Woodhead, and, if healthy, Kevin Faulk would be ahead of Ocho Cinco on the pass catching hierarchy. On the surface, this would make Ocho Cinco quite the luxury item.

All of this masks the probable reason for Ocho Cinco’s continued presence on this roster. Bill Belichick is known for his tendency to acquire the next piece of the puzzle, ready to slot into a starting role, even if the starter has a year or more to go before being a free agent. In Wes Welker and Deion Branch, the Patriots have two starting receivers that happen to be in the final year of their contracts. The Patriots may have Welker’s replacement with Julian Edelman. But do they have Deion Branch’s?

Now, look at the fact that Ocho Cinco signed a three year contract this offseason. Belichick knows how this offense is constructed, and had to know that Ocho Cinco would not get many opportunities this season. What that essentially adds up to is to make the 2011 season a red shirt year for Ocho Cinco. He has no pressure to perform, can work on learning the playbook, and can develop chemistry with Tom Brady. This is a move that would provide the Patriots with a player for the 2012 season who can step right in and pick up where Branch left off.

In the end, Chad Ocho Cinco was not about this season. Bill Belichick signed him for 2012 and 2013, when he will be needed to step in for Deion Branch. And that is a pretty shrewd move.

Monday, November 7, 2011

If A Tree Falls In The Forest......

So, if the NBA season is really cancelled, will anyone truly care?

Coming off of what has been referred to as one of the five greatest seasons in NBA history, David Stern and the owners have done everything that they can conceive off, aside from hiring the corpse of Jack Kevorkian, to kill their momentum. After a season where the NBA could build exponentially off of the various storylines and events, they have instead made a determination to tear it all asunder and leave themselves with nothing.

And for what end? Basically, they are trying to save themselves from….themselves. In no other league is there such blatant stupidity when it comes time to negotiate contracts. Role players and people that are buried on the bench routinely receive millions more than they are worth. It has been so bad, that the owners needed the ‘Allan Houston Clause’ as a one time Get Out of Jail Free card for contracts during the last CBA. This time, since they obviously learned fiscal responsibility from a drunk Kardashian sister, they want another ‘We’re a group of morons clause’ and a hard salary cap.

Naturally, the players want nothing to do with this, and who can blame them? If someone was to offer you eight times what you were worth, are you going to turn it down? And let’s say that you barely needed to do anything for the length of that contract. It’s a pretty sweet deal, right? While the person making you the offer may be a certifiable cretin, what would you care? You’re just cashing the checks.

In the end, the owner’s stupidity is going to be the death blow to the NBA. The present lack of credibility with the officiating, the arrogance of David Stern to recognize the problems that the game has, and terrible play have brought it to the edge. Cancelling the 2011-12 season will only alienate the few fans it has left, and bury the NBA to a spot below Major League Lacrosse, curling, and figure skating in the American sports conscientiousness.

So David Stern, enjoy your 1/5 full arenas. Enjoy the fact that your sport is essentially nothing more than professional wrestling with a ball. And enjoy the knowledge that maybe five people care that your sport is dying from self-inflicted wounds because you are too short sighted and stubborn to actually recognize the problems. Hopefully, there will be a nice funeral.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Drafting the Heir

Peyton Manning has proven his case as the NFL MVP for 2011 without having played a down thus far this season. Given how the Colts have gotten quarterback play that has been worse than what Keanu Reeves displayed in ‘The Replacements’, and how badly the Colts have fallen upon their faces this year, it is time to think about who should be replacing Peyton Manning.

Given the nature of his injury, and how he has had three surgical procedures on his neck over the past two years, this should not have come as a surprise to the Colts leadership. Manning is, after all is said and done, human. His body broke down. They need to find his replacement, yet there are rumors that Manning will attempt to block the Colts drafting of Andrew Luck. What are the Colts to do?

Well, first, it’s time they face facts. Simply stated, they’re terrible. There is a distinct possibility they could join the Lions from 2008 in running the table in reverse. Wonder if members of that team will shower each other in O’Douls when that happens, like the 1972 Dolphins pop open champagne when the last undefeated team takes a loss. However, the Lions had a few players on that team. The Colts have almost nothing. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark have disappeared. Only Pierre Garcon appears to have any life in this offense, as he’s actually catching the ball, something he never did with Manning under center. On defense, they have Dwight Freeney and Pat Angerer. That’s it. This team needed to be blown up a long time ago, but Manning disguised all of it’s flaws in a way no one truly appreciated until this season.

Yet, if Manning is going to try to stop them from drafting the next franchise quarterback in Indianapolis, they must say farewell. One player, even if he is the quarterback/offensive co-ordinator/MVP without playing a down of football, cannot stop a team from progressing. And that is what Manning very well may do. 2010 may have been the last time we see Manning with the horseshoe on the helmet, or even as an actual NFL player, for that matter.

The Colts need to rebuild this franchise like they did back when they drafted Manning in 1998. And if that means drafting Andrew Luck and getting rid of the best quarterback in franchise history, then so be it. The Colts can no longer afford to live in the past, especially since they do not have a fallback plan.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Kris Humphries $2Million Mistake - Part Three

Looks like a $2Million engagement ring gets one 72 days of marriage.

Apparently, Kim Kardashian claims that Kris Humphries is ‘not the man she thought he was’. Well, what exactly did she think she was getting? When she heard he was a basketball player on the Nets, did she really think that he would be any good? Did she confuse Kris Humphries and Deron Williams, the only Nets player with any appreciable talent? Did she think that since he was an athlete, that people would know who he was without a google search?

According to various media reports, the crux of their issues stem from Humphries partying without her during the NBA lockout. Well, since he is obviously the type of guy to be attracted to skanks, why would he want her around when picking up other gutter trash? Besides, she would probably be cramping his style by getting it on with various other people in the restroom. Or on the dance floor. Or in a cage above the dance floor. Or on the stage, with her reality show producers filming every second of it.

But this marriage was not a complete failure, especially not for Kris Humphries. He has gotten something out of that $2Million he spent and the 72 days spent having to disinfect areas that Kim Kardashian squatted in. He got some fame. People know who he is, outside of the five die-hard NBA fans that are still left. He also probably has herpes, syphillis, gonorrhea, crabs, and a future sex tape or five that he can sell.

So, while we make fun of this sham of a marriage, there is one truly important lesson to be learned here. Kim Kardashian may be a complete whore, but she’s a high priced whore. It cost Kris Humphries $27,777.78 per day just to get her in bed. That is not a good return on investment, when a Kardashian look-alive probably costs a whole lot less. And probably has fewer venereal diseases that one needs to be concerned about.