Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Toronto Blue Jays 2012 Season Preview

Over the past twenty years, the Toronto Blue Jays have been fairly easy to predict. They have won between 80 and 89 games eleven times in that span, never winning 90 or more. They have won fewer than 70 games just once in that time frame, not counting the strike year. And they have finished fourth in the American League East each of the last four seasons. They have also been a team expected to finally break through over the last couple of season. Is 2012 finally when they break through?

The starting pitchers are a solid, if relatively anonymous, group. Ricky Romero took the next step in his development last season, dropping his ERA below 3.00 (2.92), cutting down his walk rate, and holding steady with strikeouts. He did lucky with his batting average against, but it had been low the previous year as well. Hitters just do not make solid contact against him. Brandon Morrow was inconsistent last season, but he did show some flashes. Also, he improved on his rates, cutting down his walks per nine innings, and actually leading the AL in strikeouts per nine. It is not inconceivable for him to take the next step as well this season. Henderson Alvarez appears to be a very good pitcher in the making. In his brief appearance last season, he had a K/BB ratio of 5:1. He also allowed just over a hit per inning (64 hits in 63.2 innings pitched). Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, and Kyle Drabek will vie for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Cecil is a solid back of the rotation starter. Drabek was a former top prospect, who still has plenty of time to have everything come together. McGowan had not been in the major leagues since 2008 before his brief cameo last season, and will attempt to be the Blue Jays version of Ryan Vogelsong.

The bullpen had several departures, but filled in those holes nicely. Sergio Santos is a low priced closer, who is under control for three more seasons. Darren Oliver and Francisco Cordero were signed as veteran help for an already solid group. Jason Frasor returned from the White Sox, and provides even more depth. The bullpen is a solid, deep group that will be an asset for the Blue Jays.

The outfield is a very solid group, with Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and Colby Rasmus. Bautista proved that 2010 was not a fluke, and is one of the best hitters in the game. He improved his walk rate, cut down on strikeouts, and led the American League in home runs for a second consecutive year. Rasmus, a former top prospect of the Cardinals who clashed with Tony LaRussa, should benefit from a new beginning, and may be able to finally tap into his potential. Snider was hurt for much of last season, but is a solid power hitter. Rajai Davis was brought over as the fourth outfielder, and can play all three outfield positions.

Around the infield, the Blue Jays have a lot of potential. Brett Lawrie will be the everyday third baseman, after exploding onto the scene in his major league debut. He has plenty of talent; the biggest question is whether or not he can keep himself together, as he developed a reputation as a head case in the minors. If he can, Lawrie has the chance to be a top notch third baseman for years to come. Yunel Escobar is a solid player at shortstop, providing decent power, a good batting eye, and solid defense. Kelly Johnson was acquired for Aaron Hill last season, and returns as the starting second baseman. He provides solid power, and good defense. While his batting average was terrible overall, he did hit .270 in 132 plate appearances after coming over to Toronto. He should return to form with a full season as a Blue Jay. Despite back to back mediocre seasons, Adam Lind remains at first base. He does have good power, on the rare occasions when he makes contact. His strikeout percentage did improve from 2010, but his overall statline is a far cry from 2009. This may be his final chance to prove that he can be an everyday player.

J.P. Arencibia provides great power from the catcher position, but not much else. He struck out in just over one out of every three at bats, and is mediocre at best defensively. Jeff Mathis was signed to be the late inning defensive replacement. In the minors, Travis d’Arnaud is waiting to take over should Arencibia not show any improvement. At DH, the Blue Jays have Edwin Encarnacion, who can also play third and first base if needed. While he is a butcher with the glove, he is another solid bat that the Jays can plug into their lineup.

All in all, it appears to be the same situation with the Blue Jays this year as it has been in years past. They would probably win most of the other divisions in baseball, but are stuck in the brutal AL East. Once the second wild card team is added, then they will have a better chance at the playoffs, but for now, they will remain on the outside looking in.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Tampa Bay Rays 2012 Season Preview

At the beginning of 2011, the Tampa Bay Rays were written off as a team that had simply lost too many pieces to contend. Fast forward to the end of the year, and with the help of the Red Sox collapse, the Rays found themselves in the playoffs yet again.

The foundation for the Rays success begins with their formidable rotation. While they are all relatively young, Joe Maddon has proven to have delivered great results with youth. James Shields, at age 30, is the elder statesman amongst the starting rotation. While he had a career season last year, regression is to be expected, as his WHiP was far below his average mark. After a disastrous 2010, he managed to trim over two full runs from his ERA. He’s not as good as he looked in 2011, but not as bad as he was in 2010. The truth is someplace in between. Jeremy Hellickson is also a prime target for regression. Despite a fairly high walk rate and a low strikeout rate, he was helped immensely by a .223 batting average on balls in play against him. Some of the regression amongst Shields and Hellickson will be mitigated by the expected improvement from David Price and a season of Matt Moore in the rotation. Price continues to show improvement in cutting down his walk rate and has increased his strikeout rate. Moore is a phenom who tore through the minor leagues last year, and pitched well in the playoffs, as he was the surprise starter of Game One of the ALDS against Texas. Wade Davis had a solid sophomore season, and is likely to be the fifth starter, pushing Jeff Neimann either to long relief, or to the trade block.

The Rays gambled on making Kyle Farnsworth their closer last season, and it paid off. Farnsworth, who could typically be counted on to naplam any close game, put up a career season as he almost doubled his career total in saves. He returns as the closer again in 2012, but should he falter, the Rays have a plethora of options available. Jake McGee was drafted to be the Rays closer of the future, and would slide right in if needed. J.P. Howell had a disappointing 2011, but is likely to bounce back. Joel Peralta is an underrated set up man who got to an 0-2 count on 34% of batters faced last season. In that situation, he gave up only three hits all year. Fernando Rodney was also signed to a one year deal with a team option. If he can regain the form that he had previously, he may be another solid option for the seventh and eighth innings.

In the outfield are left fielder Desmond Jennings, center fielder B.J. Upton, and right fielder Matt Joyce. Upton has all the tools necessary to become great, but has a tendency to chase terrible pitches out of the strike zone and laying off fastballs down the middle of the plate. While he is a 20 home run/20 stolen base player, he may never be the elite offensive threat everyone expected. The same diagnosis can be placed on Desmond Jennings. While he was a rookie last year, he was expected to be Carl Crawford. He did end up being similar to Crawford, only it was the Carl Crawford from Boston last season. If he does not show significant improvement this season, it would not be out of the question for the Rays to try to find another option and trade Jennings. Matt Joyce can take a walk, steal the occasional base, and has a bit of power, but is more of a fourth outfielder. At this point, he probably is what he is.

At third base is Evan Longoria, who, even in a down year, had over thirty home runs. His batting average was dragged down by injuries and a .239 batting average on balls in play. Expect him to regain his form as an elite player, and the cornerstone of the lineup. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac will likely platoon at shortstop, although neither has proven to be an asset with the bat. Rodriguez may eventually take the job full time, as he has displayed a bit of power, and Brignac has an awful .272 on base percentage in his career. Either way, both players are merely holding down the position until Hak Ju Lee is brought up. Second base is held down by the very underrated Ben Zobrist. Zobrist not only provides one of the better bats in the lineup, but he also has the capability to play wherever he is needed. Carlos Pena was brought back, and while he may not hit for a high average, he does provide another power bat in the lineup, and plays Gold Glove caliber defense.

Catcher underwent a significant change, as both John Jaso and Kelly Stoppach were allowed to depart. In their place, the Rays brought in Jose Molina. While he is essentially useless with the bat, he is one of the best defensive catchers in the game. In fact, he was brought in for his ability to frame pitches – according to PitchFX, he saved 62.8 runs from framing pitches since 2008, despite playing a total of 264 games. Anything he contributes with the bat will be a bonus. At DH, the Rays brought in Orioles cast off Luke Scott, who had a terrible year in 2011, but had three consecutive years with 20+ home runs prior to that. Scott is another low-risk, high reward type player that the Rays seem to have luck with. Expect a bounce back year.

On paper, the Rays do not appear to have enough to contend with the Red Sox, Yankees, or even the Blue Jays this season. However, the same was said at the start of 2011. Joe Maddon is able to get the most out of the pieces he is given, and the pitching staff is more than enough to keep them competitive. Expect the Rays to contend for the wild card again this year.

Saturday, February 25, 2012

New York Yankees 2012 Season Preview

Amazing how quickly the perception of a team can change. The Yankees were potentially in major trouble this offseason, as C.C. Sabathia had an out clause in his contract, and the rest of the starting rotation appeared to be in serious trouble. The lineup was old, and it appeared that the Yankees’ run may, in fact, have run it’s course.

Fast forward to January 23rd. The Yankees locked up Sabathia, providing them with a legitimate anchor for the rotation. Sabathia is, despite concerns about his weight, extremely durable and consistent. The Yankees then traded for rising star Michael Pineda, giving them a much needed young potential stud for the rotation. Three days later, they signed dependable veteran Hiroki Kuroda to a one year contract. Suddenly, the rotation, which looked like a severe weakness, had become a strength. 16 game winner Ivan Nova holds down the fourth starter slot, and despite the expected regression he will have this season, is a solid piece. The fifth starter will be either Phil Hughes, who imploded last year, or Freddy Garcia, who put up a surprisingly solid year. A.J. Burnett was traded to the Pirates, which will improve the Yankees’ rotation simply by his absence. The rotation, once a weakness, is suddenly a strength.

The bullpen is solid, with future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera returning to lock down the ninth inning. Even at age 42, he shows no signs of wearing down, and looks as dominant as ever. David Robertson may have been the top set up man in baseball last year. Despite his wildness (35 walks in 66.1 innings), he was virtually unhittable, holding the opposition to a .170 batting average against while striking out over one-third of the hitters he faced. Boone Logan, Rafael Soriano, and the recently signed David Aardsma provide excellent bullpen depth, and give the Yankees plenty of options should Robertson stumble or if Rivera gets hurt.

The outfield returns intact, with Nick Swisher in right field, Curtis Granderson in center, and Brett Gardner in left. Gardner is a solid player, capable of providing a bit of power, excellent speed, and a decent glove. Granderson had a career year last season, as he finally figured out how to hit left handed pitching. His 41 home runs were far and away his highest total, and he actually drew a solid amount of walks, showing an improved batting eye. While regression is expected, he may finally be past the possibility of being a platoon candidate. Swisher is a solid left fielder, able to get on base at a good rate, hit the occasional home run, and play decent defense. Even if the outfield is not spectacular, it is a solid group.

The infield for the Yankees is a solid group, although there are concerns at shortstop and third base. Derek Jeter returns at shortstop, but one has to wonder how long he will remain an effective major league player. 2010 looked like the beginning of the end, but Jeter returned with a solid 2011, particularly in the second half when he posted a .327 batting average and .811 OPS. Alex Rodriguez has been plagued by injuries over the past couple of years, and looks like he is nearing the end of the line. If he can stay healthy, Rodriguez can still produce at a level just below elite. The question is, how many games can he play? Otherwise, Eduardo Nunez may see a lot more playing time than a team with this payroll should allow. At second base is the dependable Robinson Cano, who is one of the top two or three second basemen in the game. While known primarily for his offense, Cano has won a Gold Glove, and is one of the best at making plays at his position. First baseman Mark Teixeira has seen his batting average on balls in play dip over each of the past five seasons, but remains a solid power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Teixeira is also a very underrated defensive player, having won four Gold Glove awards.

Russell Martin had a career rennaisance last season, and was rewarded with a $7.5 million dollar deal. While his batting average suffered a bit, he regained a power stroke, and showed flashes of his former ability. Francisco Cervelli is a capable backup, and may be one of the better backup catchers in the game. At DH, the Yankees finally put Jorge Posada out of his misery. Look for a platoon with Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones to take over the position, as they finally get some production from the position over a full year.

The Yankees are poised to make a deep run this season. After having problems in the playoffs due to their pitching staff, they may return to the World Series again this season. At this point, they are the favorites to represent the American League in the Fall Classic.

Friday, February 24, 2012

Boston Red Sox 2012 Season Preview

Following a collapse that left many diehard Red Sox fans recalling the days prior to 2004, the Sox made wholesale changes – to the front office and coaching staff. Gone are the ‘Boy Wonder’ Theo Epstein, having been traded to the Chicago Cubs to take over as the team’s President of Baseball Operations. The Sox also got rid their most successful manager in the history of the franchise in Terry Francona. In their place, the Sox hired The Official Puppet of Larry Lucchino in Ben Cherington as GM; and Bobby Valentine as manager, a man who is better known for his ability to generate goodwill, provide a quality soundbite, and wear Groucho Marx glasses than for his baseball acumen.

These replacements would be somewhat palatable if the Red Sox did anything this offseason to upgrade their roster. Anything at all. However, they did the polar opposite, letting Jonathon Papelbon walk in free agency, trading their starting shortstop for minor league filler, and not addressing any of the holes on their roster. What, exactly, was the plan?

The starting rotation returns Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett. Buchholz was injured most of last year, so there is no guarantee that he will return to form in 2012. Lester and Beckett both produced statistics that looked good at the end of the year, but were also primarily responcible for the Sox epic collapse of 2012. Behind them, a group of has-beens in Vincente Padilla, Carlos Silva, John Maine and Aaron Cook, never-weres in Felix Doubrant and Tom Gorzelanny, and converted relievers in Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves. As maligned as John Lackey and Diasuke Matsuzaka have been, they are actually much better than the corpses that the Sox are looking to trot out two out of every five starts.

The bullpen could be decent, however. Even though they lost Papelbon, they traded for Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon, both of whom have closing experience. If Bailey can remain healthy all season, they have an All-Star closer at an extremely affordable price. However, the key with him is his ability to stay healthy. If Bard goes back to the bullpen, the combo of he and Melancon will make the seventh and eight innings fairly worry free. However, the rest of the bullpen is in disarray. Bobby Jenks dealt with a potentially life threating situation with his spine this offseason, and there are doubts as to whether or not he will pitch again. Matt Albers looked solid at the start of last season, but wore down as hitters remembered that he was, in fact, the pitcher that bombed in Baltimore in recent history. The rest of the bullpen will consist of whatever arms do not stick in the rotation, none of which appear to be viable major league options.

In the outfield, center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury came back from an injury plagued 2010 with a vengeance, finally capitalizing on his potential. However, questions remain as to whether or not he can remain healthy, and if he can put up similar numbers consistently. Left field is manned by Carl Crawford, who was such a disappointment last year that team owner John Henry went out of his way to state that he was against the signing from the start. In right field, the often injured J.D. Drew has departed, as has the heir apparent in Josh Reddick. By all appearances, the Sox are hoping to cobble the position together with Cody Ross, Mark Sweeney, and possibly Ryan Kalish. None of these options really inspire any confidence.

Shortstop and third base have the potential to be disasters for the Sox. Shortstop Marco Scutaro was dumped, apparently for financial reasons. In his place, the Sox have the triumvirate of Mike Aviles, Jose Iglasies, and their big free agent signing – Nick Punto. If Aviles remains true to form and produces in even numbered years, then they will be decent there. Otherwise, this could be a black hole in the lineup. At third base is Kevin Youkilis, a solid player when healthy. However, Youkilis has been injured over the past two seasons, and missed a significant amount of time last year. One has to wonder if his body can hold up to playing third base at this stage of his career. If not, uber-prospect Will Middlebrooks had better live up to his billing, or else the Sox offense will be in serious trouble.

On the plus side, first and second base are solid. Adrian Gonzalez produced a monster season, ranking in the top ten in the American League in most meaningful offensive categories while providing Gold Glove caliber defense. He will anchor the lineup for years to come. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia provides a bit of everything for Boston, bringing surprising power, underrated speed, and leadership qualities that the Sox are in desperate need of. At DH, David Ortiz appears to have hit a second wind in his career, and is back for another season.

If everything turns out perfect for the Red Sox, they can contend for a World Series berth. However, it is even more likely that the Sox could be on the outside looking in. Enjoy the memories of the Terry Francona Era, because the days of being a perennial contender appear to be just about done.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Baltimore Orioles 2012 Season Preview

It is one thing to be an excruciatingly terrible team in a normal division. There may be the odd game that you catch a break and win here and there, a couple of players could preform far above their expectations, and might end up near .500. Then there are the Baltimore Orioles, a terrible team stuck in the best division in baseball. Losing less than 100 games would be a shock.

The offense revolves around two legitimately good players in All-Star catcher Matt Wieters and center fielder Adam Jones. Wieters is well on his way to becoming one of the top backstops in all of baseball, and Jones is a solid threat for twenty home runs and twenty stolen bases per year. Nick Markakis returns in right field, and while he is a decent player, has been a disappointment. Nolan Reimold figures to get the first chance at left field, but is coming back from injuries and may not be ready for the start of the season. If he is unable to play, then newly acquired Endy Chavez would take his spot, providing a decent glove and not much offense.

The infield consists of a plethora of questionable players. Brian Roberts was once one of the best second basemen in all of baseball, but is dealing with the aftermath of a severe concussion. It would be surprising if he manages to play with any effectiveness again. In his place is Robert Andino, best known for having a solid glove and getting the hit to complete the Red Sox epic collapse last season. On a  good team, he is a utility player – on the Orioles, he’s probably going to be one of their most productive players. Shortstop is held down by J.J. Hardy, who managed to be healthy for the first time since 2008 and put up a career year. Third baseman Mark Reynolds and first baseman Chris Davis are the ultimate at being Rob Deer 2.0 - they will strike out, walk, or hit the ball around 500 feet. Add their batting averages together this year, and you may get to around .350. Neither player is a long term answer.

The pitchign staff is littered with AAAA players. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrietta, Chris Tillman, and Zack Britton look great in the minors, but are completely unable to get out major league hitters. Newly acquired Dana Eveland, if healthy, may end up being their best starting pitcher, which should indicate the truly horrific nature of this pitching staff. Seeing Rosie O’Donnell naked may be slightly less horrifying than watching one of their starts.

The bullpen is actually a slightly bigger disaster than the rotation, if that can be believed. Kevin Gregg held down the closer job last year, mainly because he was a closer before, despite a WHiP of 1.642 and a K/BB ratio of 1.325. Jim Johnson is expected to be the closer this season, and would be an upgrade just by removing Gregg from the equation. Matt Lindstrom is a decent pitcher as a middle reliever, but is expected to be a setup man. The rest of the bullpen consists of rookies and no-name players that were pulled off the scrap heap. They may as well just bring in a can of petrol and a match.

The Orioles are destined to finish in the basement of the AL East again in 2012, padding the records of the other AL East teams.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Tom Coughlin's Legacy

Move over Rasputin! Tom Coughlin has a tendency for survival that rivals even a cat.

For a man who has been on the hot seat pretty much since getting the New York Giants head coaching job, Coughlin seems to get the most out of his team when it matters most. In the eight years he has been there, he has been rumored to be fired more often than Billy Martin. He has gotten less respect than Rodney Dangerfield felt that he got. Yet, along the way, the Giants have won their division four times, won a Super Bowl, and only had one losing season – his first. If that type of success can get a coach almost fired multiple times during the season, then you have to wonder what the expectations are for the Giants. 16-0 every regular season?

Now that Coughlin has reached his second Super Bowl, he may be poised to pass someone that happens to be considered the greatest coach in Giants history – Bill Parcells. As it stands now, Coughlin is not that far behind Parcells – Coughlin has a .578 winning percentage to Parcells at .611. Coughlin has won one less division title, but he also has one less losing season. If the Giants win, they will have the same number of championships. Maybe then, Coughlin will finally get his due.

The Super Bowl is a huge game for a number of reasons. A lot of legacies are on the line. But perhaps Tom Coughlin has more on the line than anyone else. A win, and he may finally not be coaching week to week.