Monday, March 26, 2012

Projecting Jeremy Hellickson

Last year, Jeremy Hellickson won the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year Award, winning 13 games with a 2.95 ERA. At only 25, and pitching for a team that has a knack for developing pitchers as the Rays do, it would appear that his potential is limitless. But how good is Hellickson really going to be?

In 2011, he held opponents to a .210 batting average. This was built mainly upon an insanely low .223 average on balls in play. As the league average is approximately .300, Hellickson got very lucky last year. Yes, the Rays were the best fielding team in baseball least year, and should only get better now that Carlos Pena has returned, but can Hellickson really bank on that type of luck again? When looking back at the last twenty pitchers that held opponents to a batting average on balls in play of between .200 and .250, most of them had severe regression the following year. The ones that avoided this trend were Roger Clemens, Jamie Moyer, and Barry Zito. Zito actually improved his batting average on balls in play against, marking the last time he was relevant in anything other than punchlines for bad contracts.

Then there are Hellickson’s strike out and walk rates. After posting only two walks per nine innings and a strike out rate of 8.2 per nine innings in a brief trial in 2010, he walked 3.43 batters per nine last year. His strike out rate plummeted to 5.6 per nine innings. One thing Hellickson does have going for him in terms of future strike out improvement is a solid difference between his fastball and offspeed pitches – his fastball averaged 90.9 MPH last season, his curve and change were at 75.5 and 79.9 MPH respectively. However, that is an average fastball that he throws, meaning that he will need to rely more on control than the ability to throw the baseball past the opposition. Unless he cuts down on his walk rate, he will be in even more trouble next year.
According to the always entertaining comparison chart on baseballreference.com, the following ten pitchers compare to Hellickson’s age 24 season: Doc Medich, Rich Gale, Pedro Astacio, Joey Hamilton, George Meakim, Bob Buhl, Mike Dunne, Steve Gromek, Rip Collins, and Bobby Jones. Of those ten pitchers, only three of them (Buhl, Gromek, and Jones) had an All-Star Game appearance. Even then, it was one selection each. Most of those pitchers did not even win 100 games in their career, as they were unable to sustain the luck they had in their rookie seasons going forward.

Hellickson, however, has several factors in his favor. First, Tropicana Field is one of the better pitcher’s parks in baseball. For every 100 runs scored at a neutral park, the Trop has averaged 90 over the past four years. With the large foul territory and open bullpens, it’s a pitcher’s dream. Second, as mentioned previously, he has a great defense behind him. The Rays were the best in baseball in almost every defensive metric last season, and will only get better now that Pena is back. And third, while it is a small sample size, Hellickson does not give up a lot of hard hit balls. Those weak pop ups and ground balls will help keep his ERA down, and make him look a lot better than he is.

As it stands, Hellickson appears destined for a 12 to 15 win, 4.00 ERA season. While it is a solid year, especially for a pitcher that is going to be the fourth or fifth starter, it is not ace material. Hellickson should have a decent career as a middle of the rotation starter, but do not expect much more than that.

No comments:

Post a Comment