As baseball season approaches, it is time when people start to thing of the important season ahead. And by important season, we mean the upcoming fantasy baseball season – a time when money and bragging rights are on the line. So, to help provide a bit of an edge, here is a list of sleepers – one at each position – to help you on your way.
Catcher – Yes, there are a top six, but the difference between catcher 7 and catcher 20 is not that great. So, the key is to find upside, as that can be found with Wilson Ramos. In 435 plate appearances last year, he had 15 home runs, 52 RBI, and a .267 batting average. Now that Pudge Rodriguez is no longer there to steal at bats, Ramos will have a full season of being the true main catcher in Washington. As a late round catcher, he is capable of bringing 20+ home runs, 70+ RBI, and a batting average over .280. Pretty solid production from a guy that will be considered an afterthought in most drafts.
First Base – Sometimes, a player can tear up AAA pitching, but cannot hit in the majors. However, sometimes players do not get enough of a chance to see what they are capable of. With Mat Gamel, he has never been great defensively, and he has only had 194 mostly forgettable plate appearances. This year, he has been moved from third base to first base, where his iron glove may not be as much of a factor, and will be given the opportunity to produce. He hit for power in the minors, and projects to 20+ home run hitter in his rookie year with a full season of at bats.
Second Base – Dustin Ackley may have had all of the acclaim coming up through the minors, but there was another second baseman on the same track. In fact, Jason Kipnis may be better for fantasy league purposes than Ackley. In under half the at bats, Kipnis had the same amount of home runs, and one fewer stolen base. He will likely be a 15 home run – 15 stolen base player, with upside for more. Don’t be surprised if he becomes a 20-20 player, maybe as soon as this year. A player that can fill all five categories in the middle of the draft? Jump on him.
Third Base – Patterns are amazing things, as they can show likely outcomes. With Mike Moustakas, he has traditionally struggled in his first 150 to 200 at bats, then puts everything together. True to form, he was awful for his first 200 major league at bats as he adjusted, but he began to hit for power shortly thereafter. He also has the bonus of being on the Royals, which traditionally is a two to three round penalty. Ignore the overall stats, and look at his slash line from September, when he went .352/.380/.580 with four home runs.
Shortstop -Zack Cozart was called up for a brief period of time in August, when he promptly got hurt, requiring Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow.He did manage to hit .324, albeit in 37 at bats, but he did have two home runs in that time period. In the minors, he displayed solid power, and a bit of speed, making him a potential double digit threat in both categories. Cozart is expected to be ready by Opening Day, and will fall late in drafts due to his injury and lack of playing time. Regardless, he is a potential double digit player in steals and homers, in a very shallow position.
Outfield – Colby Rasmus was considered a ‘Can’t Miss’ player going into 2011, but promptly ended up on Tony LaRussa’s bad side and was sent to Toronto. All in all, it was a miserable year for a guy that hit .276 with 23 home runs and 12 steals in 2010. This year, he is the classic buy-low player coming off a bad season. Toronto is a launching pad, and Rasmus will be allowed to be himself. The wrist injury he struggled with last season is a thing of the past, and his power stroke will return. Target him as a mid draft player; all the signs point to a huge rebound season.
Starting Pitcher – If a rookie can put together a 5:1 K/BB ratio as a starter, he is worth paying attention to. Last season, Henderson Alvarez did exactly that in his ten starts. Over 63.2 innings, he struck out 40 batters, only walked 8, and produced a 3.53 ERA. Even though he pitches in a launching pad in Toronto, those concerns are lessened given his extreme ground ball tendencies, as 53.5% of his outs came on the ground ball. Yes, he is only 22, and there will be growing pains, but he will dramatically out-perform his draft position this year. As a backup starter, he is a diamond in the rough.
Relief Pitcher – Chris Perez, the closer in Cleveland, is really not that good. His strikeouts have plummeted, and he got very lucky on his batting average on balls in play against him last year. He has also been hurt this preseason, and may not be ready in time for Opening Day. Add all these considerations together, and the signs point to Vinnie Pestano as the closer for the Indians by the end of the year. Pestano had the sixth best K/9 rate of any reliever last season, and got hitters to swing and miss against him 40% of the time. Pestano was far superior to Perez in almost every stat last year, and may have been the closer regardless. With the injury, however, this opens the door for Pestano to be a dominant closer all year.
Showing posts with label Mike Moustakas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Moustakas. Show all posts
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Kansas City Royals 2012 Season Preview
According to Dayton Moore’s “Process”, the Kansas City Royals were going to have their prospects up in 2011 and 2012, have them learn how to be major league players, and try to contend for 2013. Well, a strange thing happened along the way, as the Royals had one of the better offenses in baseball in 2011. While the starting rotation needs to show dramatic improvement for the Royals to contend for a playoff spot this season, maybe it’s not as far away as once thought. In fact, the Royals have become a trendy sleeper pick for several outlets, especially since the second Wild Card has been added.
For the Royals to take the next step, they need one or two of their starters to dramatically improve. Luke Hochevar is the de facto number one starter, but he is far from an ace. In fact, the Royals not only do not have a true number one starter, but they also do not have a pitcher that could be a number two starter on a good team either. Hochevar did show signs of improvement in the second half of last year, however; as his K/9 went from 4.38 to just under 9. If he can keep that improvement in 2012, then he may just be ready. Jonathan Sanchez was acquired from the San Francisco Giants for Melky Cabrera’s career year. Sanchez strikes out a lot of hitters, but walks a lot as well. He also has some health concerns. If he could improve his control, then he could be another solid starter, but at 29, he is what he is at this point. Bruce Chen has gone from journeyman bust to a Panamanian-Korean version of Jamie Moyer. While he is not going to make a lot of people miss, he has been surprisingly effective. Felipe Paulino was picked up after being released by the Colorado Rockies, and immediately become a fairly good starter. Ignore his won-loss record and total and aggrigate ERA – he has a lot of upside and may end up being the Royals best starter this year. The fifth spot in the rotation will be taken by either Aaron Crow or Danny Duffy. Crow has two solid pitches, and desperately needs a third pitch to be an effective starter. However, his fastball-slider combo were great out of the bullpen, where he was an All-Star last year. That would leave Duffy, who looked like a younger version of Jonathan Sanchez.
The bullpen, however, is a strength for the Royals. Joakim Soria had an off year last year, partially due to injury and partially due to experimenting with a cutter in the first half. Once he scrapped the cutter, he went back to looking like the Soria of years past. Jonathan Broxton was picked up on a one year deal as a safety net if Soria either gets hurt again, or is traded. Little Timmy Collins is the primary lefty reliever, and wore down last year from overuse. Greg Holland was the Royals best reliever last year, and may end up being the closer of the future if Crow can stick in the rotation.
In the outfield, the Royals have Alex Gordon in left, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Jeff Francoeur in right. Gordon finally tapped into his limitless potential, becoming a Gold Glove outfielder and a legitimate offensive threat. Cain’s defense and speed made Melky Cabrera expendable, and he may end up taking the leadoff spot from Gordon. Francoeur had a surprisingly good season, as he finished with 20 home runs, and over 20 stolen bases. He is another solid defensive player, and furthers the Royals desire to be a run prevention team. Mitch Maier is the fourth outfielder, and can play all three positions.
Last year, the Royals had the youngest infield in baseball by the end of the year. Third baseman Mike Moustakas struggled initially in the majors, but began to hit as the season progressed. This was well in line with his minor league track record, where he needed 150 to 200 at bats to get acclimated to the talent level, then began to hit. Look for Moustakas to have a good year in 2012. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is a great defensive player, but provides little to nothing offensively. Despite that, he is extremely valuable, given his ability to take away hits and runs. Johnny Giavotella is expected to be the Opening Day second baseman, and will be better than what the Royals had there last season by default. His presence banishes Chris Getz either to the bench or to AAA. Eric Hosmer will also get a full season at first base, and is looking to build off of an impressive rookie season. Hosmer has also added an element of speed to his game over the last couple of seasons. Yuniesky Betancourt returns as a theoretical utility infielder, even though he couldn’t catch the ball if it was placed directly in front of him, and may actually be the worst player in baseball. But, it would not be the Royals if they did not make at least one head scratching move per offseason.
Salvador Perez turned a solid 148 at bat debut into a five year extension, and is locked up as the catcher of the present and future. While he swings at literally everything, he also has a surprisingly good contact rate. He is also a solid defensive catcher with a plus arm, so the Royals may have a steal with their investment. Brayan Pena is the backup catcher, and is essentially a body that can give Perez the occassional day off. Billy Butler is entrenched at the designated hitter spot, and while he may never hit a lot of home runs, is a lock for 40+ doubles and a solid batting average. All in all, the offense was good last year, and may be even better this year.
For the Royals to have a chance this year, they need their run prevention plan to work as well as they can possibly dream of. A step forward by either Hochevar or Paulino will help, but they are more likely to contend in 2013 than in 2012.
For the Royals to take the next step, they need one or two of their starters to dramatically improve. Luke Hochevar is the de facto number one starter, but he is far from an ace. In fact, the Royals not only do not have a true number one starter, but they also do not have a pitcher that could be a number two starter on a good team either. Hochevar did show signs of improvement in the second half of last year, however; as his K/9 went from 4.38 to just under 9. If he can keep that improvement in 2012, then he may just be ready. Jonathan Sanchez was acquired from the San Francisco Giants for Melky Cabrera’s career year. Sanchez strikes out a lot of hitters, but walks a lot as well. He also has some health concerns. If he could improve his control, then he could be another solid starter, but at 29, he is what he is at this point. Bruce Chen has gone from journeyman bust to a Panamanian-Korean version of Jamie Moyer. While he is not going to make a lot of people miss, he has been surprisingly effective. Felipe Paulino was picked up after being released by the Colorado Rockies, and immediately become a fairly good starter. Ignore his won-loss record and total and aggrigate ERA – he has a lot of upside and may end up being the Royals best starter this year. The fifth spot in the rotation will be taken by either Aaron Crow or Danny Duffy. Crow has two solid pitches, and desperately needs a third pitch to be an effective starter. However, his fastball-slider combo were great out of the bullpen, where he was an All-Star last year. That would leave Duffy, who looked like a younger version of Jonathan Sanchez.
The bullpen, however, is a strength for the Royals. Joakim Soria had an off year last year, partially due to injury and partially due to experimenting with a cutter in the first half. Once he scrapped the cutter, he went back to looking like the Soria of years past. Jonathan Broxton was picked up on a one year deal as a safety net if Soria either gets hurt again, or is traded. Little Timmy Collins is the primary lefty reliever, and wore down last year from overuse. Greg Holland was the Royals best reliever last year, and may end up being the closer of the future if Crow can stick in the rotation.
In the outfield, the Royals have Alex Gordon in left, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Jeff Francoeur in right. Gordon finally tapped into his limitless potential, becoming a Gold Glove outfielder and a legitimate offensive threat. Cain’s defense and speed made Melky Cabrera expendable, and he may end up taking the leadoff spot from Gordon. Francoeur had a surprisingly good season, as he finished with 20 home runs, and over 20 stolen bases. He is another solid defensive player, and furthers the Royals desire to be a run prevention team. Mitch Maier is the fourth outfielder, and can play all three positions.
Last year, the Royals had the youngest infield in baseball by the end of the year. Third baseman Mike Moustakas struggled initially in the majors, but began to hit as the season progressed. This was well in line with his minor league track record, where he needed 150 to 200 at bats to get acclimated to the talent level, then began to hit. Look for Moustakas to have a good year in 2012. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is a great defensive player, but provides little to nothing offensively. Despite that, he is extremely valuable, given his ability to take away hits and runs. Johnny Giavotella is expected to be the Opening Day second baseman, and will be better than what the Royals had there last season by default. His presence banishes Chris Getz either to the bench or to AAA. Eric Hosmer will also get a full season at first base, and is looking to build off of an impressive rookie season. Hosmer has also added an element of speed to his game over the last couple of seasons. Yuniesky Betancourt returns as a theoretical utility infielder, even though he couldn’t catch the ball if it was placed directly in front of him, and may actually be the worst player in baseball. But, it would not be the Royals if they did not make at least one head scratching move per offseason.
Salvador Perez turned a solid 148 at bat debut into a five year extension, and is locked up as the catcher of the present and future. While he swings at literally everything, he also has a surprisingly good contact rate. He is also a solid defensive catcher with a plus arm, so the Royals may have a steal with their investment. Brayan Pena is the backup catcher, and is essentially a body that can give Perez the occassional day off. Billy Butler is entrenched at the designated hitter spot, and while he may never hit a lot of home runs, is a lock for 40+ doubles and a solid batting average. All in all, the offense was good last year, and may be even better this year.
For the Royals to have a chance this year, they need their run prevention plan to work as well as they can possibly dream of. A step forward by either Hochevar or Paulino will help, but they are more likely to contend in 2013 than in 2012.
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