As the NFL season approaches, people are gearing up for their fantasy football drafts. Some have happened already, yet most will take place this weekend, as it is the weekend before the season begins.
Yesterday, we provided some names to remember for later in the year in our Deep Sleepers post. Today, we’re going to provide a few busts to avoid this upcoming year. Again, the ‘experts’ continue to trot out the same bust players (like Mike Vick), so you won’t get that here. What you will get are people that are flying under the bust radar. Such as….
Quarterback - Tony Romo: First, let us point out that the Cowboys offense actually performed better when Romo was injured last season. Next, as almost useless as Roy Williams the receiver was, he is a better receiving option than Kevin Ogletree or whatever else they are sticking as their third receiver. Third, as explosive as Dez Bryant can potentially be, he is still very unproven. Fourth, they Cowboys are going to run the ball more with Jason Garrett as their head coach than they did with Wade Phillips. Add this all together, and it spells a season that may be better for the Cowboys as a team, but worse for Romo in fantasy leagues. Romo is right now the seventh quarterback going in drafts on average, but he will likely finish outside the top 12 in points.
Other potential busts: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Mike Vick
Running Back – Jamaal Charles: A lot of people have been on the Maurice Jones-Drew as a bust bandwagon, yet they love Jamaal Charles. While Jones-Drew is definitely bust material, Charles has a lot more red flags when looking at his situation. Charles is going in the top five based off of his potential and his absolutely insane 6.4 yards per carry last season. Despite all of the yards he managed to accumulate, he only scored a total of eight touchdowns, two of which came in one game. While he is supposed to get a larger share of the workload, there are a lot of questions as to whether or not he can handle it. Already, he has a leg injury. Plus, there is still the spectre of Thomas Jones lurking in the background. If he loses even one yard per carry, then his rushing total is only just over 1200 yards. Basically, this would make him Peyton Hillis without the scores. The potential for justifying his selection is here, however it is more likely he will put up numbers that would be acquired with a fourth round pick.
Other potential busts: Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden
Wide Receiver – Greg Jennings: Here is someone that is not getting a lot of run as a possible bust. Yet, there is a statistical trend that shows that Jennings may not live up to being the fourth or fifth receiver off the board. Specifically, prior to the injury to Jermichael Finley, Jennings averaged six targets a game. After the injury, that number increased to 8.2. Not only is Finley healthy, but the Packers added a second solid receiving tight end in the draft in D.J. Williams. This way, in case Finley gets hurt again, they have someone that can step in and make plays. Added to this is the return of Ryan Grant, who missed all but one game last year due to injury. Having Grant back in the lineup means that the Packers will run the ball more, which further limits the potential for touches for Jennings. Let someone else draft him based on last season.
Other potential busts: Dwayne Bowe, Dez Bryant, Steve Johnson
Tight End – Vernon Davis: By all statistical measurements, Davis had a monster year last season, as Mike Singletary was able to finally tap into his immense potential. Yet, in a game by game breakdown, there are troubling signs. Davis had three games last year with only one reception. He had eight games with 36 or fewer yards. Davis was the ultimate boom or bust play at tight end last year. Add to this the statements made by Jim Harbaugh about how Frank Gore is going to be the focal point of the offense, and how they would like to work Delanie Walker into the passing game more, and this spells a backslide for Davis statistically.
Other potential busts: Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, Owen Daniels
Showing posts with label fantasy leagues. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy leagues. Show all posts
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers
By now, almost every fantasy football ‘expert’ has created a list of sleepers for people to target. In fact, we’ve even done a podcast on it (take a listen – we know what we’re talking about. Money back guarantee on that). But it takes someone with some real knowledge and stones to provide a list of some really deep sleepers for you all to keep an eye on for later in the year. Thankfully for you all, Mr. Dave’s Sports Blog is not afraid to make these predictions.
Now, none of these players should be drafted unless you happen to be in an insanely deep league. However, these are people that will probably earn jobs by the end of the year. Keep an eye on them, put them on a watch list, and remember that these people could be the next Peyton Hillis or Mike Vick. Of course, it’s just as likely they could be the next person you see bagging your groceries at the local Food Mart. Anyway, onto the list!
Quarterback – Colin Kaepernick: Here’s a news flash for all of you – Alex Smith just isn’t that good. He has never thrown for more than 2890 yards in a season. He has 51 career touchdowns to 53 career interceptions. He has not proven to have the ability to manage a game and to actually win a game, as attested to by his 19-31 record as a starting quarterback. Kaepernick is mobile, has a better arm than Smith does, and is actually accurate with the ball. The quarterback in San Fran is going to be protected this year, as they plan on making Frank Gore the centerpiece of their offense, but that would only help a rookie like Kaepernick. Chances are, he’s starting by Week 8 (San Fran has a bye on Week 7), and can provide some solid fantasy league points as a duel threat quarterback.
Running Back – DeMarco Murray: The Dallas Cowboys have had a tendency over the past couple of years to utilize all three running backs on their roster. This year, they got rid of Marion Barber III, and drafted DeMarco Murray in the third round. Murray is a perfect fit for what the Cowboys want to do on offense, as he can catch the ball and is a great runner. Also, he has a knack for finding the end zone, with 63 total touchdowns in his college career. Keep in mind that for all the fantasy love that Felix Jones is getting, he has scored eight touchdowns total in his NFL career. With Murray’s track record of being able to score in college, chances are that he gets a shot with the ball near the goal line. In fact, it could end up where Murray is starting over Jones at the end of the year, as there are questions about his durability. At any rate, Murray could prove quite valuable in fantasy leagues, especially in touchdown leagues.
Wide Receiver – Eric Decker: Here’s the deal with Decker – what else is there ahead of him on the depth chart? Brandon Lloyd put together a career year in his eighth season. Prior to that, he was an afterthought for fantasy league purposes. Can he really do it again? Eddie Royal had a strong rookie season, then fell off the map last year. Meanwhile, Decker was a first round talent that the Broncos got in the third round due to an injury he suffered in college. This essentially turned his rookie season to a redshirt year. Decker has been playing the Z receiver and in the slot with the starting unit all training camp. He has great hands, knows how to run precise routes, and is a big target in the red zone. Also, it helps that Kyle Orton is actually a much better quarterback than people seem to realize. As long as Orton does not get Tebowed this year again, someone in that offense can have a huge year catching the ball. Decker would be a good option, as would….
Tight End – Julius Thomas: Thomas is right now behind Daniel Fells on the Denver Broncos depth chart. However, is happens to be a much better receiver, and tight end in general, than Fells, despite having only played two years of organized football. Already nicknamed ‘Mr. Red Zone’ by his Broncos teammates, Thomas was a former basketball player for Portland State, whose size and leaping ability will translate to the pros. It may take a bit before he sees consistant action, but he has the potential to be a touchdown scoring machine when he finally sees the field. Remember this name for around the middle of the season, and be ready to snag his talents.
Kicker and Defense: Look, we’re not going to waste your time by trying to predict something as nebulous as a kicker and a defensive unit. To illustrate the insanity of that, keep the following in mind: Arizona, who was a terrible defense for all intents and purposes, finished third in standard scoring leagues for defense due to defensive touchdowns. Sebastian Janikowski was undrafted in most leagues, and led kickers in points. Trying to predict these positions makes as much sense as stapling Jell-O to the ceiling. However, there are a couple of things to look at when trying to make your selections for these positions.
For kickers, it is better to find a bad offense than a good one. While this sounds contradictory, given the nature of the position, here’s the reason – bad offenses do not score touchdowns. Chances are, most of their points will come off of field goals, which benefits the kicker in a fantasy league format. As such, you want an accurate kicker with a strong leg on a bad team. After all, how else would Janikowski be considered the top kicker in any respect, aside from being able to eat Twinkies and down six packs of beer?
Now for defenses. The best thing to look at with a defense is their pass rush. If a defense can get to the quarterback, that will disguise a number of deficencies in other areas. By putting pressure on the quarterback, passes will not be as accurate, allowing even a terrible secondary to make plays. Also, sacks can lead to fumbles and turnovers, as the strip sack has become rather vogue in the NFL at this point. Find a defense with a strong pass rush, and you will have yourself a solid fantasy league defense.
Hopefully these predictions help you all out later in the year. Remember, these are not players that should be drafted in any but the deepest leagues, yet you should keep them in the back of your mind for mid season pickups.
Now, none of these players should be drafted unless you happen to be in an insanely deep league. However, these are people that will probably earn jobs by the end of the year. Keep an eye on them, put them on a watch list, and remember that these people could be the next Peyton Hillis or Mike Vick. Of course, it’s just as likely they could be the next person you see bagging your groceries at the local Food Mart. Anyway, onto the list!
Quarterback – Colin Kaepernick: Here’s a news flash for all of you – Alex Smith just isn’t that good. He has never thrown for more than 2890 yards in a season. He has 51 career touchdowns to 53 career interceptions. He has not proven to have the ability to manage a game and to actually win a game, as attested to by his 19-31 record as a starting quarterback. Kaepernick is mobile, has a better arm than Smith does, and is actually accurate with the ball. The quarterback in San Fran is going to be protected this year, as they plan on making Frank Gore the centerpiece of their offense, but that would only help a rookie like Kaepernick. Chances are, he’s starting by Week 8 (San Fran has a bye on Week 7), and can provide some solid fantasy league points as a duel threat quarterback.
Running Back – DeMarco Murray: The Dallas Cowboys have had a tendency over the past couple of years to utilize all three running backs on their roster. This year, they got rid of Marion Barber III, and drafted DeMarco Murray in the third round. Murray is a perfect fit for what the Cowboys want to do on offense, as he can catch the ball and is a great runner. Also, he has a knack for finding the end zone, with 63 total touchdowns in his college career. Keep in mind that for all the fantasy love that Felix Jones is getting, he has scored eight touchdowns total in his NFL career. With Murray’s track record of being able to score in college, chances are that he gets a shot with the ball near the goal line. In fact, it could end up where Murray is starting over Jones at the end of the year, as there are questions about his durability. At any rate, Murray could prove quite valuable in fantasy leagues, especially in touchdown leagues.
Wide Receiver – Eric Decker: Here’s the deal with Decker – what else is there ahead of him on the depth chart? Brandon Lloyd put together a career year in his eighth season. Prior to that, he was an afterthought for fantasy league purposes. Can he really do it again? Eddie Royal had a strong rookie season, then fell off the map last year. Meanwhile, Decker was a first round talent that the Broncos got in the third round due to an injury he suffered in college. This essentially turned his rookie season to a redshirt year. Decker has been playing the Z receiver and in the slot with the starting unit all training camp. He has great hands, knows how to run precise routes, and is a big target in the red zone. Also, it helps that Kyle Orton is actually a much better quarterback than people seem to realize. As long as Orton does not get Tebowed this year again, someone in that offense can have a huge year catching the ball. Decker would be a good option, as would….
Tight End – Julius Thomas: Thomas is right now behind Daniel Fells on the Denver Broncos depth chart. However, is happens to be a much better receiver, and tight end in general, than Fells, despite having only played two years of organized football. Already nicknamed ‘Mr. Red Zone’ by his Broncos teammates, Thomas was a former basketball player for Portland State, whose size and leaping ability will translate to the pros. It may take a bit before he sees consistant action, but he has the potential to be a touchdown scoring machine when he finally sees the field. Remember this name for around the middle of the season, and be ready to snag his talents.
Kicker and Defense: Look, we’re not going to waste your time by trying to predict something as nebulous as a kicker and a defensive unit. To illustrate the insanity of that, keep the following in mind: Arizona, who was a terrible defense for all intents and purposes, finished third in standard scoring leagues for defense due to defensive touchdowns. Sebastian Janikowski was undrafted in most leagues, and led kickers in points. Trying to predict these positions makes as much sense as stapling Jell-O to the ceiling. However, there are a couple of things to look at when trying to make your selections for these positions.
For kickers, it is better to find a bad offense than a good one. While this sounds contradictory, given the nature of the position, here’s the reason – bad offenses do not score touchdowns. Chances are, most of their points will come off of field goals, which benefits the kicker in a fantasy league format. As such, you want an accurate kicker with a strong leg on a bad team. After all, how else would Janikowski be considered the top kicker in any respect, aside from being able to eat Twinkies and down six packs of beer?
Now for defenses. The best thing to look at with a defense is their pass rush. If a defense can get to the quarterback, that will disguise a number of deficencies in other areas. By putting pressure on the quarterback, passes will not be as accurate, allowing even a terrible secondary to make plays. Also, sacks can lead to fumbles and turnovers, as the strip sack has become rather vogue in the NFL at this point. Find a defense with a strong pass rush, and you will have yourself a solid fantasy league defense.
Hopefully these predictions help you all out later in the year. Remember, these are not players that should be drafted in any but the deepest leagues, yet you should keep them in the back of your mind for mid season pickups.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
It is that time of year again, where baseball is right around the corner. As such, it is also the time of year where fantasy leagues are holding their drafts. Anyone can draft Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez, but leagues are often won in the later rounds by finding sleepers that produce. Here are some sleeper picks by position (average draft position according to ESPN fantasy drafts).
Catcher: Mike Napoli, average draft position: 179. Despite Mike Scioscia's outright reluctance to play Napoli everyday, he managed to hit 20 or more home runs for each of the last three seasons. Now, he finds himself in Texas, and the launching pad that is Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Last season, Napoli's isolated power was .230, which not only led all catchers, but was on par with players such as Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth. Napoli also has first base eligibility, which is a bonus in fantasy. While his batting average will remain around .250, his power is reason enough to wait when the top five catchers are off the board.
First Base: Freddie Freeman, average draft position: 214. Freeman joins Jason Heyward as a part of the next wave of Braves prospects that are expected to lead them to the playoffs. Despite being only 20 years old last year, Freeman hit .319/.378/.521 in AAA. This year, he has been handed the starting first baseman job out of spring training. Again, the average may be a tad bit low since he is only 21 going into this year, but Freeman will provide solid home run and RBI totals in that lineup. For a 21st round selection, a batting line of .270/25/70 is a fairly solid proposition.
Second Base: Brad Emaus, average draft position: none. This pick is not for the faint of heart, as Emaus is not guaranteed a starting job, or to even open the season with the Mets. However, he does have several things working in his favor. First, as a Rule V draftee, the Mets must keep him on the roster, or offer him back to the Toronto Blue Jays. Second, Luis Castillo was released, opening the position. Emaus, over the course of his minor league career, has displayed the ability to get double digit home runs and stolen bases, while hitting in the .280 to .290 range and walking more than he strikes out. For the last pick of a draft, there is a lot more upside here than what would typically be available.
Third Base: David Freese, average draft position: 221. Freese is sliding in drafts due to his injury history, as he has had ankle surgery in each of the past two seasons. While he has yet to really display a lot of power in the majors, he has provided a solid batting average and the ability to get on base. Over the course of his minor league career, he did manage to hit 68 home runs in 1456 at bats, for an average of one home run every 21.4 time to the plate. Should Freese see 400 at bats this year, that would project to 19 home runs. As a 22nd round draft choice, he could be a find as a three or four category provider.
Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, average draft position: 202. At first glance, Escobar's stat line last year was thoroughly unimpressive, as he hit .235 and only stole 10 bases. However, his BABip was only .266, which is extremely low. He also was stuck in the eighth spot in the batting order for the Brewers, where he did not steal as much due to hitting in front of the pitcher. With the trade to Kansas City, expect Escobar to run more, as they try to manufacture runs. Over the course of his minor league career, he stole 176 bases with a .293 batting average. Thirty steals and a .270 batting average and a decent run total is a fair expectation, and is quite good from a shortstop.
Outfield: Nate McLouth, average draft position: 226. McLouth is another bounce back candidate. 2010 was a wasted season for him, as he hit bad enough to be demoted to AAA. However, when he was given another opportunity in September, he responded by hitting at a respectable .263/.358/.509 with three home runs and three stolen bases over his final 23 games. Also, it is worth noting that prior to last season's disaster, he had hit 46 home runs and had 42 stolen bases over the previous two seasons. He is still only going to be 29 this season, so there is not yet any reason to think that he has lost his ability to hit. Given how he finished last season, the possibility of McLouth returning to 20 home run/20 stolen base form cannot be dismissed. Potentially finding that type of talent in the 22nd round makes him worth the investment.
Starting Pitcher: Jhoulys Chacin, average draft position: 175. Yes, a Colorado Rockies pitcher. Chacin went 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA, a 1.14 WHip, and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings over his last eight starts. Overall for the season, Chacin struck out 9.04 batters per nine, while providing an ERA of 3.28. Proving that pitching in Colorado is not a factor, he had a 3.98 ERA at Coors Field. Chacin opens the season with a spot in the rotation locked up, and is capable of providing numbers similar to pitchers being drafted five rounds before him. Ignore the fact that he pitches for the Rockies, and look at what Chacin is - a four category provider at starting pitching that is being drafted much later than he should be.
Relief Pitcher: Jake McGee, average draft position: 219. Every year, people draft relief pitchers too early, falling into the trap that they must grab saves. Yet, every year, there are pitchers that no one had even thought to draft that end up as closers. After all, how many people had John Axford at the start of 2010? McGee, who was a top starting pitching prospect for Tampa prior to injuring his elbow in 2008, appears to be that person this year. At AAA, he struck out 27 batters against three walks in 17.1 innings. In his five inning major league debut, he struck out six while only allowing two hits. He has a mid-90's fastball and a very good slider, which is all that one needs as a closer. Add in the fact that McGee is left handed, and that Kyle Farnsworth has the most closing experience on the Tampa Bay Rays roster, and McGee appears destined for 30+ saves.
Even if none of these players pan out when drafted, there is really no risk. By taking sleepers as opposed to the safe pick, the chance for reward is far greater. After all, everyone knows what Mark Buehrle will put up. But if one can draft someone that is equal to a Wandy Rodriguez instead, then that makes it worth the gamble. Players like Buehrle will be available on the waiver wire if the sleepers don't pan out.
Catcher: Mike Napoli, average draft position: 179. Despite Mike Scioscia's outright reluctance to play Napoli everyday, he managed to hit 20 or more home runs for each of the last three seasons. Now, he finds himself in Texas, and the launching pad that is Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Last season, Napoli's isolated power was .230, which not only led all catchers, but was on par with players such as Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth. Napoli also has first base eligibility, which is a bonus in fantasy. While his batting average will remain around .250, his power is reason enough to wait when the top five catchers are off the board.
First Base: Freddie Freeman, average draft position: 214. Freeman joins Jason Heyward as a part of the next wave of Braves prospects that are expected to lead them to the playoffs. Despite being only 20 years old last year, Freeman hit .319/.378/.521 in AAA. This year, he has been handed the starting first baseman job out of spring training. Again, the average may be a tad bit low since he is only 21 going into this year, but Freeman will provide solid home run and RBI totals in that lineup. For a 21st round selection, a batting line of .270/25/70 is a fairly solid proposition.
Second Base: Brad Emaus, average draft position: none. This pick is not for the faint of heart, as Emaus is not guaranteed a starting job, or to even open the season with the Mets. However, he does have several things working in his favor. First, as a Rule V draftee, the Mets must keep him on the roster, or offer him back to the Toronto Blue Jays. Second, Luis Castillo was released, opening the position. Emaus, over the course of his minor league career, has displayed the ability to get double digit home runs and stolen bases, while hitting in the .280 to .290 range and walking more than he strikes out. For the last pick of a draft, there is a lot more upside here than what would typically be available.
Third Base: David Freese, average draft position: 221. Freese is sliding in drafts due to his injury history, as he has had ankle surgery in each of the past two seasons. While he has yet to really display a lot of power in the majors, he has provided a solid batting average and the ability to get on base. Over the course of his minor league career, he did manage to hit 68 home runs in 1456 at bats, for an average of one home run every 21.4 time to the plate. Should Freese see 400 at bats this year, that would project to 19 home runs. As a 22nd round draft choice, he could be a find as a three or four category provider.
Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, average draft position: 202. At first glance, Escobar's stat line last year was thoroughly unimpressive, as he hit .235 and only stole 10 bases. However, his BABip was only .266, which is extremely low. He also was stuck in the eighth spot in the batting order for the Brewers, where he did not steal as much due to hitting in front of the pitcher. With the trade to Kansas City, expect Escobar to run more, as they try to manufacture runs. Over the course of his minor league career, he stole 176 bases with a .293 batting average. Thirty steals and a .270 batting average and a decent run total is a fair expectation, and is quite good from a shortstop.
Outfield: Nate McLouth, average draft position: 226. McLouth is another bounce back candidate. 2010 was a wasted season for him, as he hit bad enough to be demoted to AAA. However, when he was given another opportunity in September, he responded by hitting at a respectable .263/.358/.509 with three home runs and three stolen bases over his final 23 games. Also, it is worth noting that prior to last season's disaster, he had hit 46 home runs and had 42 stolen bases over the previous two seasons. He is still only going to be 29 this season, so there is not yet any reason to think that he has lost his ability to hit. Given how he finished last season, the possibility of McLouth returning to 20 home run/20 stolen base form cannot be dismissed. Potentially finding that type of talent in the 22nd round makes him worth the investment.
Starting Pitcher: Jhoulys Chacin, average draft position: 175. Yes, a Colorado Rockies pitcher. Chacin went 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA, a 1.14 WHip, and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings over his last eight starts. Overall for the season, Chacin struck out 9.04 batters per nine, while providing an ERA of 3.28. Proving that pitching in Colorado is not a factor, he had a 3.98 ERA at Coors Field. Chacin opens the season with a spot in the rotation locked up, and is capable of providing numbers similar to pitchers being drafted five rounds before him. Ignore the fact that he pitches for the Rockies, and look at what Chacin is - a four category provider at starting pitching that is being drafted much later than he should be.
Relief Pitcher: Jake McGee, average draft position: 219. Every year, people draft relief pitchers too early, falling into the trap that they must grab saves. Yet, every year, there are pitchers that no one had even thought to draft that end up as closers. After all, how many people had John Axford at the start of 2010? McGee, who was a top starting pitching prospect for Tampa prior to injuring his elbow in 2008, appears to be that person this year. At AAA, he struck out 27 batters against three walks in 17.1 innings. In his five inning major league debut, he struck out six while only allowing two hits. He has a mid-90's fastball and a very good slider, which is all that one needs as a closer. Add in the fact that McGee is left handed, and that Kyle Farnsworth has the most closing experience on the Tampa Bay Rays roster, and McGee appears destined for 30+ saves.
Even if none of these players pan out when drafted, there is really no risk. By taking sleepers as opposed to the safe pick, the chance for reward is far greater. After all, everyone knows what Mark Buehrle will put up. But if one can draft someone that is equal to a Wandy Rodriguez instead, then that makes it worth the gamble. Players like Buehrle will be available on the waiver wire if the sleepers don't pan out.
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