In 2011, the Detroit Tigers were easily the class of the American League Central, boasting a solid lineup, an absolute stud ace pitcher, and a good bullpen. This year, they have improved the lineup, and bring back the same rotation. But will the Tigers be better?
For all the buzz centered around Justin Verlander, the rest of the rotation is pretty good. Verlander, who is not only the reigning Cy Young Award winner, but also the reigning MVP, is perhaps the best starting pitcher in the game. On his own, he automatically gives the Tigers a chance to win every game he pitches. Max Scherzer has shown flashes of greatness, and has started to be more consistant in each outing. Doug Fister is a very underrated pitcher, and solidified the rotation when he came over in the midseason trade from Seattle. Rick Porcello was decent at times last year, and will regress this season (more on that in a bit). Jacob Turner is likely to win the fifth starter position, and by default will be an upgrade over the corpse of Brad Penny. But will the pitching actually look as good as they really are? Scherzer, Porcello, and Fister are all groundball pitchers, and the Tigers defense around the infield has the mobility of Christopher Reeve. They will give up a lot more runs than last year, but may actually pitch better.
The bullpen suffered a big loss with the Al Alburquerque injury, but Octovio Dotel will help to minimize the damage. Jose Valverde was a perfect 49-49 in save attempts last season, but shows some signs of wear, as his K/9 has steadily decreased over the past four seasons. Phil Coke has been moved back to the bullpen after the Tigers attempt to turn him into a starter. Coke is a dominant lefty reliever, and will help bridge the gap to Valverde. Joaquin Benoit is a solid setup man, and will hold down the eighth inning.
The outfield consists of Andy Dirks in right field, Austin Jackson in center, and Brennan Boesch in left. Boesch missed roughly a third of the season with a thumb injury, but had been improved in his second season. Jackson has a lot of speed, but is not great at tracking down fly balls. He also has a tendency to strike out a lot for a leadoff hitter, which truly limits his effectiveness. Dirks is expected to be the starting right fielder, but is far from a sure thing to start the season with the Tigers. He tore up the Dominican winter league, and is looking to use that as a springboard to success in Detroit. If he falters, Delmon Young will step in. Ryan Raburn, slated to the be starting second baseman, can also play in the outfield if needed.
With the Tigers infield, we can safely say two things – they will hit well, and they will not catch the ball whatsoever. Miguel Cabrera moves over the third base after having not played there since 2008, when it took 14 games for Jim Leyland to decide that there were not enough cigarettes in Detroit for him to deal with Cabrera’s lack of defense. Yes, Cabrera may be one of the two best hitters in the game, but he is a much better first baseman than third baseman. Next to him is Jhonny Peralta, he whose parental units did not have spell check. Peralta can hit, but is an absolute butcher in the field. Ryan Raburn is a converted outfielder who is playing second base, and is actually the best defensive player starting in the Tigers infield. With a full season of plate appearances, he could have a breakout year. Prince Fielder signed a huge contract after Victor Martinez was lost for the season, and will take over for Cabrera at first. He provides another 40+ home run bat, but is a major defensive liability. Brandon Inge, upset after being sent to the bench after hitting less than .200 last year, will still see a lot of playing time as a defensive replacement. Yes, the offense will be better, but the pitching staff will have nightmares of double play grounders becoming hits.
Alex Avila broke out in a big way last season as the Tigers starting catcher. He was helped by a .366 batting average on balls in play, which points to regression this year. On the positive side, he did display a solid batting eye and the ability to take a walk. He will also be the main starting catcher even if he struggles, as backup Gerald Laird is useless with a bat. Delmon Young is slated to be the designated hitter, but that may change if either Boesch or Dirks struggle in the outfield. If that happens, either Fielder or Cabrera wil likely become the DH, with Inge moving into the starting lineup.
On paper, the Tigers are better than they were last season. While they will likely win the AL Central , they may not be as good a team. the lack of infield defense will keep them from winning a World Series.
Showing posts with label Justin Verlander. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Verlander. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Justin Verlander And The MVP Award
The MVP award is designed to go to, literally, the most valuable player in his league. Somehow, over the years, this has morphed into the most valuable position player. The line of thinking is that, since pitchers have the Cy Young Award, the MVP should go to an every day player. This line of thought is simply asinine.
In the early days of the MVP award, the voters felt the same. Pitchers would routinely be voted as MVP’s, right on through the mid-1940′s. Then, something in the thought process of the voters changed. This was even back before the advent of the Cy Young, so they did not even have ‘their award’. In fact, the only time a pitcher won MVP between 1945 and 1986 was back in 1968, when Bob Gibson and Denny McClain both won MVP. This was mainly because no one else was even close to being worthy.
Lately, however, the way that awards are voted on has changed. The sabermetric community has brought along new statistics designed to prove a player’s true value to their team, while devaluing the old standby categories, such as wins and RBI. This become most evident back in 2009, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award, despite winning only 16 games. Then in 2010, Felix Hernandez finished 13-12, but was voted the Cy Young. Both players deserved the awards, not by conventional thinking, but by measuring their performance differently.
This train of thought had not continued along to the MVP ballot however. Then along came Justin Verlander, and his fabulous 2011 season. Not only did Verlander run away with the Cy Young, but he also managed to become Justin Verlander – MVP. Verlander is the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley back in 1992. Looking at the WAR statistic, Verlander tied Jose Bautista at 8.5. Bautista, playing for the also ran Blue Jays, finished third in the balloting.
Verlander was, by far, the most valuable player to his team’s success in a non-statistical way as well. Take Verlander off of the Tigers, and they are a third place team. Take Jacoby Ellsbury off the Red Sox, and they still do not make the playoffs. Take Bautista off the Blue Jays, they still do not make it to the playoffs. Verlander meant far more to his team’s success; which, by definition, makes him the most valuable player.
Now, people will argue that, as Verlander pitched in only 34 games, he is not as valuable as Ellsbury, who played in 158 games. This theory is easily debunked. Ellsbury had a total of 718 plate appearances, while Verlander faced 969 batters. Verlander had, by that measurement, 251 more chances to affect the game than Ellsbury did. Factoring in fielding, Ellsbury had 50 chances, while Ellsbury had 394. When adding plate appearances and total chances for Ellsbury, the total is 1112. Verlander had 1019. The difference of 93 is less than one ball per game. Games played truly has no bearing on who is most valuable, especially this year.
The Most Valuable Player is not always a position player. Hopefully this vote shows that people are beginning to realize that.
In the early days of the MVP award, the voters felt the same. Pitchers would routinely be voted as MVP’s, right on through the mid-1940′s. Then, something in the thought process of the voters changed. This was even back before the advent of the Cy Young, so they did not even have ‘their award’. In fact, the only time a pitcher won MVP between 1945 and 1986 was back in 1968, when Bob Gibson and Denny McClain both won MVP. This was mainly because no one else was even close to being worthy.
Lately, however, the way that awards are voted on has changed. The sabermetric community has brought along new statistics designed to prove a player’s true value to their team, while devaluing the old standby categories, such as wins and RBI. This become most evident back in 2009, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award, despite winning only 16 games. Then in 2010, Felix Hernandez finished 13-12, but was voted the Cy Young. Both players deserved the awards, not by conventional thinking, but by measuring their performance differently.
This train of thought had not continued along to the MVP ballot however. Then along came Justin Verlander, and his fabulous 2011 season. Not only did Verlander run away with the Cy Young, but he also managed to become Justin Verlander – MVP. Verlander is the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley back in 1992. Looking at the WAR statistic, Verlander tied Jose Bautista at 8.5. Bautista, playing for the also ran Blue Jays, finished third in the balloting.
Verlander was, by far, the most valuable player to his team’s success in a non-statistical way as well. Take Verlander off of the Tigers, and they are a third place team. Take Jacoby Ellsbury off the Red Sox, and they still do not make the playoffs. Take Bautista off the Blue Jays, they still do not make it to the playoffs. Verlander meant far more to his team’s success; which, by definition, makes him the most valuable player.
Now, people will argue that, as Verlander pitched in only 34 games, he is not as valuable as Ellsbury, who played in 158 games. This theory is easily debunked. Ellsbury had a total of 718 plate appearances, while Verlander faced 969 batters. Verlander had, by that measurement, 251 more chances to affect the game than Ellsbury did. Factoring in fielding, Ellsbury had 50 chances, while Ellsbury had 394. When adding plate appearances and total chances for Ellsbury, the total is 1112. Verlander had 1019. The difference of 93 is less than one ball per game. Games played truly has no bearing on who is most valuable, especially this year.
The Most Valuable Player is not always a position player. Hopefully this vote shows that people are beginning to realize that.
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