Sunday, March 20, 2011

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

It is that time of year again, where baseball is right around the corner. As such, it is also the time of year where fantasy leagues are holding their drafts. Anyone can draft Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez, but leagues are often won in the later rounds by finding sleepers that produce. Here are some sleeper picks by position (average draft position according to ESPN fantasy drafts).

Catcher: Mike Napoli, average draft position: 179. Despite Mike Scioscia's outright reluctance to play Napoli everyday, he managed to hit 20 or more home runs for each of the last three seasons. Now, he finds himself in Texas, and the launching pad that is Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Last season, Napoli's isolated power was .230, which not only led all catchers, but was on par with players such as Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth. Napoli also has first base eligibility, which is a bonus in fantasy. While his batting average will remain around .250, his power is reason enough to wait when the top five catchers are off the board.

First Base: Freddie Freeman, average draft position: 214. Freeman joins Jason Heyward as a part of the next wave of Braves prospects that are expected to lead them to the playoffs. Despite being only 20 years old last year, Freeman hit .319/.378/.521 in AAA. This year, he has been handed the starting first baseman job out of spring training. Again, the average may be a tad bit low since he is only 21 going into this year, but Freeman will provide solid home run and RBI totals in that lineup. For a 21st round selection, a batting line of .270/25/70 is a fairly solid proposition.

Second Base: Brad Emaus, average draft position: none. This pick is not for the faint of heart, as Emaus is not guaranteed a starting job, or to even open the season with the Mets. However, he does have several things working in his favor. First, as a Rule V draftee, the Mets must keep him on the roster, or offer him back to the Toronto Blue Jays. Second, Luis Castillo was released, opening the position. Emaus, over the course of his minor league career, has displayed the ability to get double digit home runs and stolen bases, while hitting in the .280 to .290 range and walking more than he strikes out. For the last pick of a draft, there is a lot more upside here than what would typically be available.

Third Base: David Freese, average draft position: 221. Freese is sliding in drafts due to his injury history, as he has had ankle surgery in each of the past two seasons. While he has yet to really display a lot of power in the majors, he has provided a solid batting average and the ability to get on base. Over the course of his minor league career, he did manage to hit 68 home runs in 1456 at bats, for an average of one home run every 21.4 time to the plate. Should Freese see 400 at bats this year, that would project to 19 home runs. As a 22nd round draft choice, he could be a find as a three or four category provider.

Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, average draft position: 202. At first glance, Escobar's stat line last year was thoroughly unimpressive, as he hit .235 and only stole 10 bases. However, his BABip was only .266, which is extremely low. He also was stuck in the eighth spot in the batting order for the Brewers, where he did not steal as much due to hitting in front of the pitcher. With the trade to Kansas City, expect Escobar to run more, as they try to manufacture runs. Over the course of his minor league career, he stole 176 bases with a .293 batting average. Thirty steals and a .270 batting average and a decent run total is a fair expectation, and is quite good from a shortstop.

Outfield: Nate McLouth, average draft position: 226. McLouth is another bounce back candidate. 2010 was a wasted season for him, as he hit bad enough to be demoted to AAA. However, when he was given another opportunity in September, he responded by hitting at a respectable .263/.358/.509 with three home runs and three stolen bases over his final 23 games. Also, it is worth noting that prior to last season's disaster, he had hit 46 home runs and had 42 stolen bases over the previous two seasons. He is still only going to be 29 this season, so there is not yet any reason to think that he has lost his ability to hit. Given how he finished last season, the possibility of McLouth returning to 20 home run/20 stolen base form cannot be dismissed. Potentially finding that type of talent in the 22nd round makes him worth the investment.

Starting Pitcher: Jhoulys Chacin, average draft position: 175. Yes, a Colorado Rockies pitcher. Chacin went 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA, a 1.14 WHip, and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings over his last eight starts. Overall for the season, Chacin struck out 9.04 batters per nine, while providing an ERA of 3.28. Proving that pitching in Colorado is not a factor, he had a 3.98 ERA at Coors Field. Chacin opens the season with a spot in the rotation locked up, and is capable of providing numbers similar to pitchers being drafted five rounds before him. Ignore the fact that he pitches for the Rockies, and look at what Chacin is - a four category provider at starting pitching that is being drafted much later than he should be.

Relief Pitcher: Jake McGee, average draft position: 219. Every year, people draft relief pitchers too early, falling into the trap that they must grab saves. Yet, every year, there are pitchers that no one had even thought to draft that end up as closers. After all, how many people had John Axford at the start of 2010? McGee, who was a top starting pitching prospect for Tampa prior to injuring his elbow in 2008, appears to be that person this year. At AAA, he struck out 27 batters against three walks in 17.1 innings. In his five inning major league debut, he struck out six while only allowing two hits. He has a mid-90's fastball and a very good slider, which is all that one needs as a closer. Add in the fact that McGee is left handed, and that Kyle Farnsworth has the most closing experience on the Tampa Bay Rays roster, and McGee appears destined for 30+ saves.

Even if none of these players pan out when drafted, there is really no risk. By taking sleepers as opposed to the safe pick, the chance for reward is far greater. After all, everyone knows what Mark Buehrle will put up. But if one can draft someone that is equal to a Wandy Rodriguez instead, then that makes it worth the gamble. Players like Buehrle will be available on the waiver wire if the sleepers don't pan out.

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