Saturday, April 30, 2011

Thoughts From Day Two

Rounds two and three of the NFL draft occurred last night, amid the announcement that the lockout is back on. While looking into how much Roger Goodell does not care about the fans or the players is a topic for another day, today we shall look at the best and worst moves of Day Two, broken down by rounds.

Good moves of the second round:
-Andy Dalton going to the Bengals. This gives them leverage in the Carson Palmer fiasco. They can either tell him to take a walk, or move him and have something other than Jordan Palmer to lead the team.
-Ryan Williams going to Arizona. Maybe this is the year the Cardinals can run the ball. They've certainly invested a lot of picks in that position over the last few years. Williams is a complete back, and should take the job with ease.
-Titus Young going to the Lions. This gives them a legitimate possession receiver opposite of Calvin Johnson, and will force the defense to pay attention to someone else downfield. Now if only Stafford can stay healthy...
-Ben Ijalana to the Colts. Pure power, lane opening, run blocking lineman. They may keep him at tackle, but he would be better suited as a guard. Either way, this selection will help a running game that had nowhere to go last year.
-Da'Quan Bowers to the Bucs. Let's see, the Bucs stayed put, and took the number 6 ranked player in the draft at pick 51. Insane value. Coupled with Clayborn, they have improved the pass rush significantly. Biggest concern is the knee, but at this point of the draft, it's worth the gamble.

Bad moves of the second round:
-Ras-I Dowling to the Patriots. Why? They already have three cornerbacks that can play. Also, there were better cornerbacks available at 33 if they truly felt they needed to make another selection there. The top pick of the second round is WAY too high to be spending on a player that will only be on the field in the dime.
-Continuing with the Patriots, their selection of Shane Vereen. He's a third down back. While Kevin Faulk is getting old, they already had his replacement with Danny Woodhead. While Woodhead is undersized, he also fits that role perfectly. What is Vereen's role going to be?
-Colin Kaepernick going to San Fran. He's a development quarterback, who is going to be tutored by Harbaugh. The hjope is that he'll be ready in a couple of years, but this also means that the 49ers are almost definately bringing back Alex Smith. Kaepernick is too raw to see the field this year, but probably will if Smith returns.
-Greg Little to the Cleveland Browns. Stop us if you've heard this before - the browns drafted a raw receiver in the second round. Don't they already have three of these players on the roster? How has that worked for them? This is particularly perplexing when they had the opportunity to draft Julio Jones, who could be the game changer they desperately need. Colt McCoy should be pissed.

On to the third round. Here are the best moves:
-Ryan Mallett to the Patriots. They got the best quarterback in the draft at pick 74. He is the heir to Tom Brady, and Patriots fans will love this pick in a few years. The biggest concern is keeping his head straight, but with that locker room and coaching staff, that will not be a problem.
-Austin Pettis to the Rams. This gives Bradford the possession receiver he needs in that offense. He was overshadowed by Titus Young, but is a legitimate receiving prospect in his own right. he will help open the field for the smaller, quicker receivers that the Rams have.
-Jerrel Jernigan to the Giants. Yes, the Giants are deep at receiver already, but Jernigan can play anywhere. He has lined up as a Wildcat quarterback, and also is a good red zone target. He can make an immediate impact in New York.
-Mason Foster to the Bucs. Let's see here, a playmaking linebacker that fits what the Bucs do on defense perfectly being available at pick 81? The biggest knock against him is that he was considered a bit slow, but the speed a player performs at is more important than any drills. Foster makes plays. Meet the next stud linebacker for Tampa Bay.

And now, moves that did not make as much sense:
-Rob Housler to Arizona. Yes, the Cardinals needed help at tight end. But the tight end is not a big part of their offense, and Housler is not much of a blocker. If they plan on using the tight end more, better pass catchers (D.J. Williams) were available. Quite a stretch taking him with that pick.
-DeMarco Murray to the Cowboys. I really like Murray as a player. He's a good back that will perform when given the opportunity. But he goes to Dallas, where they already have three good backs. Is he going to see the field? While Marion Barber III is probably gone from the Cowboys, he still has Felix Jones and Tashard Choice ahead of him on the depth chart. It's a waste to only be giving Murray five carries a game, which is the likely outcome.
-Steven Ridley to the Patriots. Umm....didn't you draft a running back the round before? So why take another running back here? Oh, and that pick 28 that you traded to the Saints? Yeah, that was Mark Ingram. If you really needed a running back that badly, why make the trade Bill? Maybe you just can't help yourself anymore. Thanks for becoming a parody of yourself.
-Alex Green to Green Bay. Yes, the Packers went through practically anyone that ever played running back last year on their Super Bowl run, so they needed a running back. However, there were better backs available. Green is a third down back, who is essentially Brandon Jackson. So, if they don't like Jackson, why draft the exact same player?

More thoughts about Day Three will be posted tomorrow.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Thoughts From Round One

Before getting into the three best and worst moves from the draft, some observations:

-Before the Carolina Panthers pick, the section that shows the clock on the ESPN coverage said 'error'. Fitting beginning to the Cam Newton era, in my opinion.
-During the Denver Broncos pick, did Roger Goodell forget what year it was?
-Speaking of Goodell, I give him credit for acknowledging the cascade of boos he received. He still may not care about the fans, but at least he won't ignore the reception he gets.
-Julio Jones, good choice with the bowtie.
-Blaine Gabbert doesn't feel like an NFL quarterback after watching his interviews.
-I get the explanation given by Baltimore as to how they let the clock run out, but seriously, was Mike Tice running their draft? They couldn't have had someone on a piece of paper just in case?
-Is Jonathon Baldwin the final Baldwin brother?
-New England made their inevitable trade. I was starting to get worried that it wouldn't happen.

Now to the moves. Three best:
1. Cleveland trading with Atlanta: Yes, they could have used Julio Jones, but the Browns have a ton of holes. One pick was not going to cure that. Instead, they literally got an offer they couldn't refuse for that pick. Even when they traded up, they are still up three picks from that move.
2. Baltimore drafting Jimmy Smith: They very well could have gotten screwed by not turning in a name before time ran out, but Kansas City took a receiver. Smith will give them a shutdown corner, and will allow Baltimore to do the one thing that they couldn't last year - blitz. Even with the questions surrounding his off the field issues, he's going into a locker room where Ray Lewis and company will not tolerate that. Perfect fit.
3. New England trading pick 28: They had pick 33, so whatever they draft there is not going to have that big of a dropoff. With the pieces that the Patriots need (offensive line, pass rushing defense) in abundance in this year's draft, they will still get what they need. The Saints may not be as good as people think they will be next year, as they have a tough schedule. That pick they got from New Orleans could well be in the 15 to 20 range, which is better than the Patriots are expected to draft.

Now, the three worst moves of the first round:
1. Cam Newton first overall: If you are Carolina, what is the value of this pick? Newton is a developmental quarterback who needs a couple of years to learn the NFL game. Also, the Panthers now admit they wasted a second round draft choice last year when they took Jimmy Clausen. Marcell Dareus or A.J. Green would have been better fits for the Panthers. Now, this is nothing against Newton, and I would like him if he went in the second round to a team like Philadelphia, where he could learn from Mike Vick and Andy Reid. Instead, he will get pushed out onto the field too early, and go down as a bust.
2. Falcons trading five picks to the Browns to draft Julio Jones: I get the rationale here, as Jones should finally give Roddy White someone to draw defenders away. However, there are a lot of questions about Jones on the field. He tends to drop the easy passes, as it looks as though he is trying to turn everything into a large gain. Also, the Browns needed him as well. Why would Holmgren trade out of this spot, knowing that Atlanta was looking to take Jones? I think Holmgren saw something he really didn't like, and I'll trust his judgment here.
3. Seattle drafting James Carpenter: Yes, the Seahawks need offensive line help. Yes, Carpenter will be an immediate starter at guard for them. However, there were better players available on the offensive line. Gabe Carimi, who went 29th, would have given the Seahawks a pair of bookends for their line. Better guards would actually be available in round two, and if they liked Carpenter that much, he probably would have been available as well. This pick was an absolute reach.

Thoughts from Day 2 will be up tomorrow morning.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Basketball's Vagabonds

The Sacramento Kings have been one of the most traveled franchises in the NBA. They began their existence in Rochester, New York, as the Rochester Royals in 1945. The Royals joined the NBA in 1948, as part of a merger between the BAA and NBL. During their time in Rochester, the Royals would win the only two championships in the team's history, the first in 1946 with Otto Graham of football fame, and the second in 1951. In 1957, they moved from Rochester to Cincinnati, where they kept the Royals name. From there, they moved to Kansas City in 1972, becoming the Kings, as the baseball Royals had already been established. Then, in 1985, the franchise finished it's migration west, moving to Sacramento.

Enter the Maloof's. They bought into the Kings franchise in 1998 as a minority partner, before purchasing a majority stake in 1999. Prior to this, their father owed the Houston Rockets, which they inherited upon his sudden death in 1980. They sold the Rockets in 1982, at a time when the NBA was struggling financially, and there were questions regarding the solvency of the league. This was a move they had regretted since.

Now, the elder Maloof had money, which was passed down to his children. In addition to the Kings, the Maloofs also built a billion dollar hotel/casino at the Palms in Las Vegas. Shortly after this occurred, the economy crashed and the real estate bubble burst. As such, they have serious cash flow problems presently. The Maloofs folded their WNBA team (a wise move, since that league is nothing more than a financial sinkhole) and sold their family's liquor distributor. They also have a seriously large amount of debt with their casino, which is being purchased by Harrah's for a possible takeover.

This puts them in a bad spot, where they have to either sell the Kings or sell the casino/hotel. In typical spoiled rich kid fashion, they refuse to do either. Instead, they are threatening to move the Kings yet again, this time to Anaheim. What is lost in all of this is that Sacramento loaned the Kings $77 million, which they have yet to pay back, and that the Maloofs are trying to get Anaheim to pay for the franchise relocation fee.

The reason why they claim that they need to move is because they feel that the Kings cannot be profitable in Sacramento. They want to move to a bigger market with a new arena. However, there are two teams presently in the playoffs that play in a small market with an average arena - Portland and Oklahoma City. While the Thunder did move from Seattle, Oklahoma City is not a bigger market. Both teams drafted well, made smart trades, and built around a talented core of youngsters. The Kings gave Chris Webber, and his tenuous health, a large contract, and have been mediocre at best since. There is a blueprint for winning in small markets, as long as the front office and ownership are savvy enough to follow it.

Enter the potential hero. Kevin Johnson, the former NBA shooting guard, happens to be the mayor of Sacramento. Johnson realizes how much the Kings mean to the city, the fans, and other businesses. In order to try to prevent their move, he has lined up sponsors that have pledged over $10 million for next season. He has promised to do everything he can to get the Kings a new arena. And he has located investors to purchase the Kings and keep them in Sacramento. Meanwhile, the NBA has pretty much yawned at this effort.

Now, enter David Stern. Speculation is that Stern, in his mafia boss like way, is looking to take over the Kings, much as the NBA has with the Hornets. This is not being done for any love of the fans in Sacramento, but rather as an extra bargaining chip for the inevitable lockout. The prevailing thought is that he will threaten to contract both the Kings and Hornets to force the player's association into agreeing to his terms. If they refuse, good bye teams. David Stern doesn't care about the fans or the players, David Stern cares about David Stern getting his own way.

To further the NBA monkey wrench, teams that want to move have their possible relocation looked at by a committee, which must then approve the move. The head of the relocation committee? None other than Clay Bennett, who stole the SuperSonics from Seattle. As if he'll stop anyone from moving their team.

In short, fans of the Kings in Sacramento are screwed. The best case scenario is that Kevin Johnson comes in on his white horse and saves the day. It's too bad that the odds are stacked against him.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

More Shameless Self Promotion

The blog can now be located on the website for the podcasts that my buddy Mike and I do each week. Please take a listen to them, and let us know what you think. Here's the link where the blog can be found: http://www.madsportsmen.com/blog.php , and from there, all the other features can be accessed. Thanks for checking it out!

The Bruins Power Play

The Achilles heel for the Boston Bruins this season has been it's power play. Over the regular season, they only converted on 16.2% of power play opportunities, which ranked 20th in the NHL. Of the teams that made the playoffs, the Bruins rank 13th, ahead of the Nashville Predators, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Los Angeles Kings.

At the trade deadline, the Bruins attempted to solve this problem by bringing in Tomas Kaberle. However, while Kaberle helps, he does not solve the problem at hand. The reason why the Bruins have not succeeded on the power play has nothing to do with the defensemen connecting on their passes - it is because they do not play in front of the net.

Teams that tend to be successful on the power play have players that are not afraid to screen the opposing goaltender, look for rebounds, and attempt to tip shots from the point. The bruins have one person that does that with any consistency - 43 year old Mark Recchi. Contrast this with a team like the Montreal Canadiens who thrive on the power play, and you will notice that they swarm the net. They always have bodies down in front of the goalie.

This further illustrates itself in this series. The Bruins have yet to score a power play goal, going 0-18 in the series thus far. Montreal, meanwhile, is 4-23. While this is not a great percentage, the four goal advantage can be huge. Case in point, the Canadiens won game 6 2-1 with two power play goals.

In order for Boston to improve, they need to get bodies in front of the goaltender. However, they have yet to show a desire to do so all season. Do not expect anything to change tonight.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Potential NFL Draft Sleepers

Yesterday, we listed our top ten potential draft busts. Today, we list our top eight potential draft sleepers.

1. Pat Devlin - QB: Devlin has travelled a strange road to the NFL Draft. He started at Penn State, then transfered to Delaware after losing out on the starting job. At Delaware, he followed in the footsteps of Joe Flacco, and turned himself into an NFL prospect. Devlin has good size for an NFL QB (6'4, 220) and decent athleticism. He has a strong arm, and is a very accurate passer. The biggest questions regarding Devlin involve his footwork and his arm slot, but those are easily fixed at the pro level. A team that is looking for a quarterback of the future to sit behind their starter for a couple years would be well served to take Devlin.

2. Ben Ijalana, T/G: Ijalana played tackle for his college career, but is a bit undersized for that position by NFL standards. As such, a lot of teams are looking at him as a guard at the professional level, where he should be a beast. In fact, this position change is causing Ijalana to move up the draft board, to the point where he may not be much of a sleeper at this point. Ijalana has great feet, showing an ability to move laterally and mirror opponents well. Notonly does he have a solid initial burst off of the line, but he can also recover well, and get back into the play if beaten. His greatest strength is as a run blocker, where he is a bulldozer off the line. At this point, Ijalana may have moved up to the second round, and would be an absolute steal or a team there.

3. Titus Young, WR: Versitility is the name of the game with Young. In his college career, he has lined up as both a wide receiver and a running back, and also returned kicks. He was very productive in college, with 204 receptions for 3063 yards and 25 touchdowns. Young is also fast, running a 4.43 in the 40. The best comparision to Titus Young may be Troy Brown, a solid pro that will have a long career and outperform majority of the receivers taken before him.

4. Ricky Stanzi, QB: Stanzi is another probable mid round draft choice that will, like Devlin, be a great pick for a team looking to draft a quarterback of the future. He is a smart, accurate passer with good size (6'4, 223). He also played in a pro style offense in college, which will limit his learning curve in the NFL. The biggest knock on him is his inconsistant footwork, but that is easily corrected. Stanzi is also not very mobile, but his good pocket awareness will make up for that.

5. Taiwan Jones, RB: There is a video clip of Jones jumping out of a pool - backwards. This video shows exactly how stron ghis legs are, which helps him to break low tackles. He is a great athlete with excellent quickness. Jones also has experience as a receiver out of the backfield, where he showed good hands and an ability to run routes with precision. He is an explosive runner, and a potential home run threat every time he touches the ball. Jones projects as a three down back in the NFL, and will be an excellent value where he gets drafted.

6. Shiloh Keo, S: Keo is essentially a guided missile as a safety. He was extremely productive in college, with 354 tackles and 11 interceptions. Keo plays with intesity, and loves to hit receivers and running backs. He is also not afraid to blitz and take on blockers. While he is not great in coverage, he has all the makings of a safety that can drop down into the box and play great against the run, and be a solid zone safety.

7. Richard Sherman, CB: Sherman stands out not just because of his size (6'2, 195), but because he played as a receiver for his first three years at Stanford. As such, he has above average ball skills as a defensive back. Sherman plays physically, and has tremendous leaping ability and solid speed. While he is a bit of a project, Sherman looks like someone that will develop into a solid cornerback in th future.

8. Clay Nurse, DE: Nurse is a solid pass rushing defensive lineman with a great burst off the line. He is very much a high energy player, giving his best effort at all times. He has a good initial burst, and closes on running backs or quarterbacks well. He doesn't have a lot of different moves, and lacks size (259 lbs), but he has solid instincts and will not give up on a play. Nurse also has good character and displayed solid leadership skills in college. As someone that is projected to be a late round draft choice, Nurse could make an impact in the near future.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Potential NFL Draft Busts

With the upcoming NFL draft, attention has tuned to potential sleepers and busts for this year's draft. This list will focus on the top ten potential busts in the upcoming draft.

1. Cam Newton, QB: Newton is a very athletic player who has a lot of potential. However, potential gets more coaches fired and dooms more franchises than anything else. He started for one year in college, and has all the makings of a one year wonder, in the mode of Akili Smith. Newton is very much a project in the NFL, and should be drafted much later than he will be. Any team that drafts him expecting him to be ready for the NFL is in for a major disappointment, and a future coaching change. Just run away from this selection.

2. Brandon Harris, CB: Harris is projected to be the third cornerback taken in the draft, after Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara. While he has excellent straight line speed, it doesn't seem to translate well in coverage. Harris had a total of four career interceptions in college, which shows a lack of playmaking capabilities. His coverage issues manifest in his difficulties covering smaller, quicker receivers, in part because he provides a large cushion off the line. He also has problems in zone defense, as he does not react well. In short, Harris looks a lot like a dime back in the NFL.

3. Kyle Rudolph, TE: There is no question that Rudolph is a tremendous talent, and possibly the best pass catching tight end in the draft. However, there are serious questions about his desire to play football. He has a terrible work ethic, as he doesn't practice hard, takes plays off, and does not give 100% even when passes are heading his way. Rudolph also has an injury history, with injuries to his shoulder and hamstring. With other solid tight end options being available later in the draft, Rudolph is not worth the pick he will be selected at.

4. Nick Fairley, DT: When a player is compared to Albert Haynesworth - Redskins version, there are problems. Fairley has a questionable attitude, and is thought of as a possible locker room cancer already. Coupled with his reputation as a dirty player with how he hits quarterbacks low, attacks opposing players after the whistle, and will attempt to injure players, there are more red flags here than on the Chinese capitol building. Add to this that he only had one productive season in college, and this is another player to avoid entirely.

5. Robert Quinn, DE: Quinn was suspended for the entire 2010 season for receiving improper benefits from an agent, which is a major warning sign. There are also questions about his ability to learn a defense in the NFL. On the surface, Quinn was productive in college with 13 sacks, but a close examination shows that eleven of those came against Duke, Virginia, and 1-AA teams, which is not exactly the top competition. In fact, he only had one sack against a ranked opponent for his career. Quinn is rated highly more on reputation than on merit.

6. Mark Ingram, RB: Ingram had a heavy work load in college, and that has the potential to curtail his NFL career. As it is, the shelf life for runningbacks appears to decrease each year. He only ran a 4.62 40 yard dash at the combine, and is not a tremendous athlete. Add to this a degenerative condition on his left knee that has already caused two teams to remove him from their draft boards entirely, and Ingram has all the makings of a bust.

7. Anthony Castonzo, T: Castonzo is not an elite prospect. In fact, he is solidly in the second tier of offensive tackles in this year's draft. However, since he happens to be a tackle, and a lot of teams need offensive tackles, he will get drafted much higher than he deserves. Castonzo is not overly strong, and has problems with run blocking. He is quick and agile, but has problems with strong rushing defensive ends, and gets fooled on stunts. In short, he would be a solid pick in the second round, but will likely go in the mid to late first.

8. Blaine Gabbert, QB: Gabbert became a top quarterback prospect in this draft by default, with Andrew Luck returning to school and questions about other quarterbacks in the draft. There are serious accuracy problems with Gabbert, and he only completed 30% of his passes that traveled beyond 15 yards. Furthering issues with his arm strength, he has trouble with passes thrown outside the numbers. Gabbert NEEDS to play for a team with a West Coast offense, and has no capability to play for anything else. This is not someone that might be the second quarterback off the board.

9. Jake Locker, QB: If Locker had come out last year, he would have been a top five pick. However, he stayed in school, and his draft stock plummeted. Like Cam Newton, Locker has a strong arm and solid athleticism. However, like Cam Newton, Locker is a project at the NFL level. He has serious accuracy concerns (combined in two games against Nebraska last year, he was 9-36) and problems reading defenses. He needs a couple of years to develop, and may not be given that opportunity.

10. Nate Solder, T: Solder has great size, and all of the measurables teams look for when evaluating offensive linemen. However, he does not play up to his abilities. He has long arms, but lets defensive linemen get inside his reach and push him around. Solder plays straight up and down, which limits his mobility and balance. This also affects his ability to adjust to the rusher, allowing Solder to get beaten far more often than he should. There are questions about his ability to protect the edge, and may turn out to be a Robert Gallery type of player, who needs to play guard in order to be successful in the NFL.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Andrew Ference's $2500 Finger

For what he termed an 'inadvertant bird' after scoring a goal in Game 4 against the Montreal Canadiens, yesterday Boston Bruins defenseman Andrew Ference was fined $2500 by the NHL. Ference claimed that his glove got stuck, and that it was nothing more than an equipment malfunction. And the fact that he was looking right at the Montreal crowd while this happened was a bit of a coincidence, right?

Equipment and wardrobe malfunctions have been blamed for touchy situations since the infamous Janet Jackson Super Bowl halftime show. While her breast was briefly exposed, the only people that either wanted to see it or where excited by it happened to be her plastic surgeons. Whorish tops do not randomly rip on their own. And hockey gloves do not randomly have the middle finger get stuck, especially in situations such as that.

Now, looking at the crowd that received the 'accidental' middle finger, there is a potential reason for it. The Montreal crowd needs to have the team announcer list off the American players on the roster so that they do not boo the American National Anthem. These fans are the ones that called 911 to get Zdeno Chara arrested after putting a solid hit on Max Pacioretty. These fans are causing the Bruins to stay in Lake Placid, NY, and bus to Montreal for the games, because they would otherwise make it impossible for them to do anything outside of the hotel. These fans regard the Bruins as a gang of brutish thugs who have no business playing hockey, yet cheer for a team of diving pansies who react as though they got shot if an opponent so much as looks at them wrong. If any fanbase deserves the middle finger, it is the Canadiens fans.

So, good for you Andrew Ference. That may be the best $2500 ever spent.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

1918 World Series Fixed?

Everyone that knows baseball knows of the infamous Chicago Black Sox scandal of 1919. Eight players, most notably Shoeless Joe Jackson and Eddie Cicotte, were banned from baseball for life as a result of their throwing the World Series. However, a court disposition from 1920 shows that Cicotte and the others may have gotten the idea from an outside source - the cross town Chicago Cubs.

While he did not name any specific players and was intentionally vague, Cicotte mentions how during train rides to the east coast, players would discuss how a member or members of the Cubs got $10,000 for throwing the series. Incidentally, $10,000 is the same amount of money that was left in Cicotte's hotel room for him to throw the 1919 World Series.

Going through the statistics for the 1918 World Series, there are no significant dropoffs in production for any of the players. Despite this, research on plays during the 1918 World Series shows that there were several suspicious incidents involving outfielder Max Flack. During game 4 of the series, Flack was picked off twice. In game 6, he turned a catchable fly ball into an error, leading to two runs scoring in a 2-1 defeat, causing the Cubs to lose the World Series. There was another instance where Flack was playing Babe Ruth shallow in the outfield, and the pitcher, Lefty Tyler, waved for him to move back. Flack stayed where he was, and Ruth hit a two run triple over his head.

Major League Baseball did not investigate the 1918 World Series, as they claimed that gambling was removed from the game following the banishment of the eight players from the White Sox. However,  one former member of that team, Phil Douglas, was banned from baseball for 'treachery,' as he was reported as saying that another team in the pennant race pay him to leave and 'go fishing'. Douglas faced one batter in the 1918 World Series, and committed an error on a comebacker, throwing the ball far over the first baseman's head.

Perhaps the 'curse' on the Cubs is not the result of a goat. Perhaps it is karma striking back for the forgotten misdeeds of the Cubs players over nine decades ago.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Mavs Lose Tonight - Take It To The Bank

Furthering the perception that the NBA is as scripted as the WWE, certain officials seem to have a direct impact on the games they are assigned to. When a home team is in danger of losing a playoff series that the league would benefit from by have the series continue, certain referees work those games. Certain referees work games based on what team winning would benefit the league. And, of course, there is the entire Tim Donaghy scandal, where David Stern still maintains that he was the only one betting on games, and that he was a 'rogue official'.

Despite Boss Stern claiming that he does not run the league as though he is a Mafia boss and that the games are not fixed, there are some disturbing trends with teams and officials. For a prime example, there is tonight's playoff matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Portland Trailblazers. The officiating crew is headed by Danny Crawford, an official that has adversely affected the Mavs whenever he is involved in one of their playoff games. With Crawford as an official in playoff games, the Mavs are 2-16, 4-14 against the spread. Without Crawford, the Mavs are 48-41 in the playoffs. The Mavs have been called for roughly 2.5 more fouls per game than their opponents, and have averaged 6.8 fewer free throws per game as well.

In fact, Crawford was the lead official in games 3 and 6 of the 2006 NBA Finals, where it is universally believed that the NBA gave the title to the Miami Heat. After falling behind 2-0 in that series, the Heat had a free throw advantage of 71 to 49.

Crawford being assigned to this games comes directly after the Portland Trailblazers coach, Nate McMillan, questioned how the Mavs had a 19 to 2 free throw advantage during the fourth quarter of game one. Well Nate, you won't have to worry about the Mavs having any advantage there tonight. Crawford being in Dallas pretty much assures that the series will be tied at one game each when the series shifts to Portland.

If gambling was legal, put your money on Portland. It would be a major upset if the Mavs won tonight, since they will be playing five on eight.

NASCAR's Cubs

With his fourth place finish in the Aaron's 499 at Talladega on Sunday, Dale Earnhardt Jr has now gone 101 races since his last victory. Jr did factor in determining who won the race however, as his drafting partner, Jimmie Johnson, finished in first. As a symbolic gesture to than Jr for his assistance, Johnson gave him the checkered flag from the race.

Since Jr last won a NASCAR race, Johnson has won the points championship three times. Barack Obama became president. NASCAR created a Hall of Fame. Kyle Busch has won 60 total races (12 Cup, 31 Nationwide, and 17 Truck). Monday Night Football moved to ESPN. And Jr has won the 'Most Popular Driver' award three times.

Traditionally, losers, or losing franchises, are not treated with the level of respect that teams like the Yankees and Celtics receive. Typically, they are laughed at, or completely ignored. However, Jr has managed to remain popular in the eyes of NASCAR, despite his lackluster finishes over the past few years. Of course, he did receive a built in fan base with his late father's fans heading his way with the passing of Dale Sr, yet he has managed to retain them. In a way, he is the NASCAR version of the Chicago Cubs.

Both Jr and the Cubs have come close to finally breaking through - Jr with his second place finishes at Daytona in 2009 and the Cubs in 2003. Both have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, Jr with his multiple wrecks when having a strong car, the Cubs with the Bartman game (amongst others). Both receive an unparalleled amount of support, despite there being more successful teams in the same garage/city (Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, and Jeff Gordon are Jr's teammates, and the White Sox also call Chicago home). Yet, the popularity of both continues to endure.

Dale Jr has seemingly come to the brink of breaking through with a victory. This year, he has two top fives and five top tens in eight races. He is presently third in points, his best showing through eight races in his career. He has been competitive, flashing some of the promise he had back when he was younger and a factor almost every week.

Unlike the Cubs, Jr looks ready to win. But until then, he is NASCAR's version of the Lovable Losers.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Replacing Franchise Quarterbacks

In this era of the NFL, having a franchise quarterback is of the utmost importance. Teams such as the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts compete year in and year out, due in large part to their quarterbacks. If Tom Brady or Peyton Manning were to miss an extended period of time, their prospects would be rather grim. Yet, both quarterbacks are approaching their mid-30's, bringing it close to the point where their teams will need to look at finding their replacements.

Bringing in the heir apparent at quarterback can be a tricky proposition. In San Fransisco, when the 49ers brought in Steve Young, it lit a fire under Joe Montana to prove he was still great. While he helped develop Young, facing his football mortality in the face pushed him to continue to elevate his game. Montana had four more great seasons, and a couple of solid years in Kansas City after leaving the 49ers. In Green Bay, Brett Favre refused to help develop Aaron Rodgers, and continued to be Brett Favre - throwing ill-advised passes into double and triple coverage, yet being bailed out by his receivers and somehow avoiding any criticism by members of the media. Finally, the Packers tired of Favre's "it's all about me" attitude and on-again, off-again retirements, handing the reins to Rodgers. In both cases, this plan worked out, as both teams won Super Bowls with the new quarterbacks.

The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, did not draft the next quarterback when it was obvious that Dan Marino had barely anything left. Since Marino's retirement at the end of the 1999 season, the Dolphins have used 16 different quarterbacks. Meanwhile, they have only drafted four quarterbacks (Josh Heupel, John Beck, Pat White, and Chad Henne). Needless to say, they have only won one playoff game since Marino's retirement, and that win was in 2000.

With such history being there, should the Patriots and Colts look to draft their future quarterbacks this year? This year may not have a guaranteed great quarterback, but there are a lot of solid options available in the draft, especially in the middle rounds. Pat Devlin of Delaware, Ricky Stanzi of Iowa, and T.J. Yates of North Carolina would make solid options for the Patriots and Colts anywhere from the third round on. Of course, the Patriots may feel that they have their future in Brian Hoyer, who has looked decent in his limited opportunities thus far.

Given the intellect of the Colts and Patriots, expect them to handle the quarterback position, and the future of the position, with the same skill in which they have built their rosters. This will not be a Miami Dolphins situation for them.

Friday, April 15, 2011

Jackie Robinson Day

On this date in 1947, Jackie Robinson is credited with being the first African American baseball player, which is false. Robinson was the first black player of the 20th century, which is an important distinction. Up until the end of the 1884 season, baseball was actually integrated. Welday Walker, and his brother Fleet, were the last black players before Jackie Robinson, playing for the Toledo Blue Stockings.

While these players had significant disadvantages and had to fight to play in leagues with white players, it was not until 1885 when the color line came into being. Star players of the time, most notably Cap Anson, took advantage of the increasing close mindedness as the 1880's progressed, and managed to make organized baseball off limits for black players. In response, leagues made up strictly of black players were created, and lasted until the 1950's.

With the support of commissioner Happy Chandler, the Brooklyn Dodgers signed Robinson in 1946 to their minor league team - the Montreal Royals. He was then brought up in 1947, causing the re-integration of baseball. Soon, other teams followed along, with Larry Doby becoming the first black player in the American League on July 5th. The last teams to integrate were the New York Yankees with Elston Howard, and the Boston Red Sox with Pumpsie Green.

However, despite this, it took until 1975 before a black manager was named. Frank Robinson became the player/manager of the Cleveland Indians. At the time of the 40th anniversary of Robinson breaking through the color line, Robinson was still the only black person to manage a full season in the major leagues. Further resistance to integration came from the Southern League, which ended up having to be disbanded in 1961 due to their refusal to permit black players to play for their clubs.

On this day, let us celebrate Jackie Robinson for bringing about a new era of integration in Major League Baseball. However, let us not forget that there were black players prior to his arrival.

On a side note, should any of you have the opportunity to visit the Negro Leagues Museum in Kansas City, MO, I strongly encourage you to do so. It is a great place, and has an amazing collection of artifacts from that era of baseball. The price of admission a couple years ago when I was there was only $8.00, and it is well worth the money spent.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

The Bonds Verdict

Well, that was a waste of time.

Out of the four charges facing Barry Bonds, he was found only guilty of one - obstruction of justice. Yet, this verdict is confusing as there was a deadlock on the other three charges of perjury. Essentially, what the jury was saying is that they could not determine if Bonds lied to a federal grand jury, but he somehow managed to impede the federal investigation into the steroid scandal. Not sure how that would be mutually exclusive to lying to the grand jury.

In the end, this is a victory for Barry Bonds. Not only does he get some semblance of vindication when he stated that he 'never knowingly used steroids,' but he can now claim that the allegations against him were fabricated by those who were trying to get revenge against him. As if to punctuate this, Bonds flashed a victory symbol as he exited the courthouse yesterday, as he now can rest easy knowing that the federal government really has nothing on him.

It is still possible that the obstruction conviction could be thrown out, should the defense successfully argue that the conviction does not make sense in light of the deadlock on the perjury charges. Either way, Bonds has managed to win yet again in the steroid era.

The Dice-K-Lackey Conundrum

After the rainout on April 13th, and the following off day, the Boston Red Sox have changed their starting rotation around yet again. Starting on Friday, the Sox will be sending out Clay Buchholz on Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays. Following Buchholz will be Josh Beckett on Saturday, then Jon Lester on Sunday. Monday, during the matinee game, will be Daisuke Matsuzaka - getting the start a full week since his previous outing. Following him on Tuesday in Oakland will be John Lackey, who is being skipped in the rotation.

The explanation being given is that Lackey has a lot of success against Oakland, and they want to make certain that he pitches there. While his numbers are, in fact, very good against the A's in Oakland (8-4 with a sub 3.00 ERA in 16 starts), if he was to have started on Friday, he would have faced them on Wednesday. Is it possible that the Sox are already trying to protect lackey from the chorus of boos that he will receive the moment he starts to implode again? That is the more logical reason.

Then there is Dice-K, who, in his last start, was more of a train wreck than Charlie Sheen. In two plus innings, he gave up seven earned runs on eight hits and two walks. Tim Wakefield, who is the other option as the number five starter, was slightly better, giving up five runs (four earned) in three and a third innings, while giving up six hits and walking one. If (when) Dice-K has another bad start on Monday, will Wakefield take his spot in the rotation? And how long will Wakefield be able to keep that spot?

The front of the rotation is now closer to what it should have been coming out of Spring Training. Lackey is better suited as the number four in the Sox staff. However, the fifth starter is going to be a position of flux throughout the year. In fact, the best option for that spot may actually be Felix Doubront, who would provide the rotation with a second lefty and is a favorite of manager Terry Francona. Based on how Dice-K and Wakefield have pitched thus far, expect Doubront to get his chance soon.

Long term, the Sox are free of Dice-K after next season, although it feels as though the organization wants to be rid of him as of yesterday. Should the Sox be languishing out of the playoff hunt come the trading deadline, one has to wonder if they will package him with a prospect just to be rid of him. Lackey, meanwhile, is signed through 2014 with a vesting option for 2015, so he will not be leaving any time soon. Should he continue to struggle, the question would then be what to do with him. Sox fans have seemingly turned on him already, and his penchant for finding excuses and refusing to take blame for his awful performances have accelerated the fan's disgust. Right now, he cannot be trusted at home, and that is not a good thing for a player receiving $15.25 million per year.

Right now, the best option would be to move Dice-K to the bullpen as a long reliever, insert Doubront, and let Lackey try to figure himself out. Re-aligning the rotation as they have is a good start, at the very least.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

NHL Playoffs Round One Preview

As the NHL playoffs are about to get underway, it's time for some Round One analysis. Broken down by conference:

East
Washington Capitals (1) v. New York Rangers (8): The Rangers had to fight to get into the playoffs, while the Capitals were able to rest Alexander Ovechkin for the majority of their last ten games. Aside from goaltending, the Capitals are greatly superior to the Rangers. However, all it takes is a hot goalie to eliminate a team from the playoffs, and the Capitals did have that happen to them last year. Plus, when on, Henrik Lundqvist is one of the best in the game. While this series will be more difficult that some would think, expect the Capitals to learn from their experience last season. Capitals in 6.

Philadelphia Flyers (2) v. Buffalo Sabres (7): The Sabres were one of the hottest teams heading into the playoffs, while the Flyers went cold at the end of the regular season, although one could argue that they were attempting to set up the matchups for later in the playoffs. The risk of that strategy involves running into Ryan Miller, who is more than capable of stealing a playoff series on his own. Meanwhile, the Flyers have the same problem they have had since the days of Ron Hextall - goaltending. Last year, they made their run with journeymen and backups in goal. Don't expect a repeat this year if Sergei Bobrovsky implodes. While the Flyers are more talented, Miller will keep the Sabres in this one, and might be the difference. Sabres in 7.

Boston Bruins (3) v. Montreal Canadiens (6): This may be one of the best playoff matchups in round one, just because of how much these teams hate one another. Factor in the Zdeno Chara hit, and this series could get nasty. The Bruins combination of size, skill, toughness, and goaltending has been great for most of the year. Tim Thomas is one of the favorites for the Vezina, and Nathan Horton has rediscovered his goal scoring touch recently. Montreal is going to have to hope to dominate on special teams, and draw the Bruins into dumb penalties to have a chance in this series. Expect the Bruins not to fall into that trap. Bruins in 5.

Tampa Bay Lightning (4) v. Pittsburgh Penguins (5): Even though the Penguins will be without Sidney Crosby and Evegni Malkin, they have played very well down the stretch. Despite that, the Lightning have a definite edge in scoring with Vincent Lecavalier, Steven Stamkos, and Martin St. Louis. Like Montreal, they dominate on the power play, and will need to draw the Penguins into penalties. However, the Penguins have a big advantage in net, with Marc-Andre Fleury against Dwayne Roloson. In fact, Mike Smith may actually be the better option for Tampa. This will be another matchup where goalies make the difference. Pittsburgh in 6.

West
Vancouver Canucks (1) v. Chicago Blackhawks (8): Vancouver has been one of the elite teams in the NHL all season. Boasting the Super Twins, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, they made opposing defenses seem pathetic. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks had to claw to get back into the playoffs to defend last year's championship. This year, the Hawks do not bear any resemblance to last season's team, as they needed to trade off quite a large chunk of the team due to cap issues. While the Blackhawks are still dangerous, they simply do not have the firepower to match up with Vancouver. Canucks in 5.

San Jose Sharks (2) v. Los Angeles Kings (7): Every year, the Sharks go into the playoffs looking like a contender. Seemingly every year, they get bounced in the first round. This year, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleua, and Dany Heatley are back in the top half of the bracket. Once again, they face off against a talented team in Los Angeles, which boasts a good young squad. While their playoff experience says the Sharks should win this, they just do not have the toughness needed to prevail in the playoffs. This year will not be any different. Kings in 6.

Detroit Red Wings (3) v. Phoenix Coyotes (6): These two teams are essentially even on offense, despite the Red Wings having the better known cast of players. As such, this matchup should come down to special teams, goaltending, and experience. The Coyotes have an advantage on the power play, and a superior goaltender in Ilya Bryzgalov. However, the Red Wings are always in the playoffs, are battle tested, and just know how to win. For them, the regular season is just an extended preseason before the real games start. Experience will previal in this series, but it will be a good one to watch. Red Wings in 6.

Anaheim Ducks (4) v. Nashville Predators (5): This is going to be a matchup of good defense against a good offense. Corey Perry scored 50 goals this year, and teams up with Ryan Getzlaf, Teemu Selanne, Bobby Ryan and Lubomir Visnovsky to form one of the best scoring teams in the playoffs. Pekka Rinne will need to be unbelievable for the Predators to win this series, and while he is capable of stealing a couple of games, the Ducks are just too good. Ducks in 6.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Multiple Cansecos, Take Two

Fresh off of their attempt to swindle celebrity boxing, the Cansecos are back at it again. This time, twins Jose and Ozzie Canseco have been hired as player/coaches for the Yuma Scorpions of the independant North American League. The North American League formed from the merger of three other independant leagues - the Golden, Northern, and United Leagues.

Interestingly enough, Jose Canseco had previously played for Long Beach Armada of the now-defunct Golden League in 2006. He was then sued by that team after he leaft the club, and the Armada were awarded a quarter million dollars in a judgment against Canseco. This prior 'issue' during his tenure with Long Beach did not affect their plans to bring Jose on board, according to team management.

Jose will serve as manager, while Ozzie will be serving as the bench coach/hitting instructor for the Scorpions. In a way, it's sad that a team figured that the answer to their problems would be to bring on the Cansecos. After all, the only thing positive Jose has done since bouncing a home run ball off his dome is end the steroid era in baseball as a side effect from his attempt to get revenge on an establishment that he felt blackballed by.

This also stops the one thing that could have been an ongoing promotion for the team - which Canseco is really managing? There could have been interactive polls, ballots in the crowd, and the suspence of finding out which Canseco ignored your autograph request sometime around the fifth inning. Will they swap uniforms periodically? Will syringes become a vital part of the 'workout regime'? Will Jose/Ozzie fight some random 'Q' list celebrity before the game? In fact, could a Jose/Ozzie celebrity boxing match occur before game? This needs to happen!!!

While the Yuma Scorpions are thinking that the Cansecos will be able to reach out to the Latin community, the true value here is unintentional comedy. Anytime Jose Canseco can be involved in anything means that a train wreck is about to occur, and it will be epically hysterical. In fact, Jose and Ozzie should give up on baseball. Professional wrestling NEEDS these guys.

Shameless Self-Promotion Time

As some of you hopefully know, your favorite sports writer does have a podcast. So, when you are finished listening to whoever they are, why not download the sports podcast that my friend Mike Gauthier and I do? Episode Three will be up soon, but you can find us on iTunes by looking for The Mad Sportsmen. Best part of it is - it's free! So, take a listen, and hopefully enjoy.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

The Different Eras of Baseball

With Manny Ramirez failing a second drug test, and subsequently retiring from baseball, there has been a lot of discussion as to how this will affect his Hall of Fame candidacy. In all likelihood, the BBWAA will climb upon their moral high ground, and refuse to vote him in, claiming that his admission would somehow cheapen and demean the Hall itself. Ramirez, and Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and others, will fall into the same purgatory that Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro find themselves in - not enough votes to get in, and too many to fall off the ballot.

This stance is entirely hypocritical. Because the manner of cheating was an injectable substance, this is considered to be taboo and enough to immediately dismiss the candidate from the Hall? Gaylord Perry and Don Sutton made their careers off of cheating with the spitball and scuff ball respectively. In fact, Perry wrote a book called 'Me and the Spitter', which came out in 1974 - during the middle of his playing career! Yet, both pitchers managed to gain entry into the Hall. Why the double standard?

The steroid era was nothing more than another age in the history of baseball. Until Jackie Robinson broke into the Major Leagues in 1947, there had not been a black major league player since the 1880's. Does this mean that Cy Young, Ty Cobb, and Babe Ruth were not as great as they are considered to be? They did not have to face Satchel Paige, Cool Papa Bell, Josh Gibson, and the other stars of the Negro Leagues. But that does not matter - they were amongst the best of their era and competition.

During World War 2, quite a number of major league players were fighting in the war overseas. As such, a number of players had their career years during that time frame due to an overall decrease in the talent on the field. Hal Newhouser, inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1992, had his best three years from 1944 to 1946, when the players were just starting to come back to baseball. Yet, he made the Hall of Fame. The lack of talent then was not held against him.

In the 1960's through the 1980's, quite a number of players were hopped up on 'greenies', cocaine, and other various substances. In fact, baseball lore has it where Dock Ellis pitched a no-hitter while on acid. The voters have not held the drugs of that era against those playing during that time frame. In fact, prior to their ban in 2006, it was estimated that between 50% to 80% of baseball players were using greenies, yet it was an open secret in Major League Baseball. No one cared. The use of amphetamines has not affected anyone from reaching the Hall either.

So why the uproar over steroids when the other eras had their own issues? Yes, steroids can give an advantage to players, but how much of an advantage is it when roughly 50% of the league is on them? At this point, everyone that played during the mid to late 1990's through present is under a cloud of suspicion, even if there is absolutely nothing tying them to steroid use. Look at Jeff Bagwell, who should have been a first ballot Hall of Famer. However, since quite a number of writers think he was on steroids, despite a lack of any proof or any rumors that he was, he only received 41.7% of the vote.

The steroid era is simply another stage in the evolution of the game, and should be treated as such. Players like Ramirez, Bonds, McGwire, Clemens, and Palmeiro should be judged based on what they accomplished DURING THE ERA THEY PLAYED IN. After all, Manny Alexander was busted for steroids, and they obviously did not turn him into a Hall of Fame caliber player.

These players should be looked at in context of when they played. Aside from their statistics, there should be no other criteria.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Ohhhhh Manny!

Some people have a gift in life. For Anton Chekhov, his writing was his gift. For Grant Wood, painting was his gift. Johnny Cash gave us the gift of music. Manny Ramirez has the gift of being able to hit a baseball. And it's a good thing he has that gift, because he is too stupid to do anything otherwise. To prove that he is truly an idiot savant with a bat, he has become the first player in the major leagues to face suspension twice under the Major League Baseball drug testing system.

Rather than deal with the 100 game suspension that he faces, Ramirez has decided to retire from baseball. In a statement from the MLB, "Major League Baseball recently notified Manny Ramirez of an issue under Major League Baseball's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Rather than continue with the process under the Program, Ramirez has informed MLB that he is retiring as an active player. If Ramirez seeks reinstatement in the future, the process under the Drug Program will be completed." Way to walk away from taking responsibility, Manny! You have done the athletic equivalent of quitting before you could be fired for either gross negligence or a serious ethics violation.

Now that Manny will have all this free time, maybe he will now be able to deal with other personal problems. After all, his first suspension under the MLB substance abuse policy was for hCG (human chorionic gonadotropin, a women's fertility drug. So, now that he's no longer subject to testing for 'performance enhancers' Manny should be able to use Viagra. Remember how Rafael Palmeiro used to be the spokesperson for that drug? Remember for Palmeiro got busted for 'performance enhancers'? I see the connection there.

Or, perhaps the reason why he was using a women's fertility drug had a deeper meaning. Maybe Manny secretly wanted to be a woman. Maybe Manny had dreams of dressing like RuPaul when going to bat. Maybe this latest violation is simply due to increased levels of estrogen in his system, which is being used to kickstart his transformation. But then again, this would require Manny to be able to concentrate on something for longer than ten seconds. After all, he does have the attention span of a four year old on coke at a petting zoo. Or it would require Manny to think. He continues to prove that breathing is a natural reaction.

It takes a special kind of stupid to be caught under any sports PED testing guidelines. It takes a truly epic lack of intellect to be caught twice. Or, perhaps it was an amazing amount of apathy. Maybe Manny just didn't care if he got caught or not, and continued to do what he felt like. Either way, it's too bad. Ramirez had one of the classic swings in baseball, and may have been a Hall of Fame caliber player without the PED's. Now, his legacy is tarnished, and the Hall of Fame is probably as far away from Manny as a textbook on quantum physics.

So, farewell Manny. Yours should be a cautionary tale for other major leaguers on why it's important to be able to do something other than hit a baseball. It's also important to be able to think.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Red Sox and Rays - Out Of Playoff Contention?

It is still very early in the baseball season, with the first week just being concluded. However, there are still two teams that have yet to taste victory. One is the Tampa Bay Rays, which may not be much of a surprise given the talent they lost this offseason. The second is the Boston Red Sox, which is shocking considering how most experts predicted them to win the World Series.

For the Red Sox or the Rays to win the World Series after this start would truly be historic. The worst start for a team to still make the playoffs is 0-5, by the 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates and the 1995 Cincinnati Reds. Both the Red Sox and Rays find themselves at 0-6 presently.

Now does this mean that both teams are already out of playoff attention? Not at all. If either of these teams lost six games in a row in the middle of the season, analysts would be paying much less attention. However, this is at the start of the year, where the accumulating losses are more obvious, especially when both teams have been swept by teams that were expected to be terrible (the Rays by Baltimore, the Sox by Cleveland).

The Rays have become just the second team to go from having the best record in the American League to 0-5, joining the 1905 Red Sox. They have been horrendous on offense, becoming the fourth team since 1919 to score one or fewer runs in five of their first six games. The Rays rank dead last in baseball in runs (7), batting average (.136), on base percentage (.218), and slugging (.260). The Sox, meanwhile, are 29th in batting average (.190) and 26th in runs (16). The biggest issue for Boston, even more than their offense, has been their pitching. They rank dead last in ERA (8.33), 29th in WHiP (1.68), had not had a quality start until today.

So, are both teams out of it already? In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'til it's over." But the odds are certainly stacked against both clubs after the first week.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Is Josh Beckett Done?

Last night, in his first start of the season, Josh Beckett gave up five hits and four walks over five innings against the Cleveland Indians. beckett also struck out four Indians hitters. However, over his five innings of work, he threw 106 pitches, for an average of 21.2 per inning.

The first time through the lineup, he managed to get eight of the first nine batters out, relying more on a changeup than he ever had before. After the first time facing him, the Indians adjusted, and Beckett was only able to get eight of the next fifteen batters out. The Indians stayed patient, and waited for Beckett to make mistakes.

Normally, such a difference in approach could be explained by a pitcher trying to keep batters off balance. Yet, there are several underlying issues here. First, Beckett has never really thrown a changeup much at all previously, yet alone at a rate of roughly 25% of his pitches. Second, Beckett's fastball was averaging approximately 91 MPH, down 5 MPH from where it had been previously. Third, he was awful last season and during spring training. And fourth, he is coming back from a back injury.

Watching him last night, he appeared to be someone rehabbing a shoulder or an arm injury. Considering that no one was truly positive if Beckett really had a back injury last year, it is possible that the arm was really the issue. If that is the case, Beckett's mysterious loss of velocity would be easier to explain. In fact, his start last night looked extremely similar to when Pedro martinez came back from his arm injury. Pedro got shelled in his first start, yet managed to finish the year with a 20-4  record with a 2.26 ERA. Incidentally, both had this happen during the season they both turned 30.

The difference is that Pedro had the mental capacity to know how to be effective without throwing fastballs past everyone else. He was still as confident as ever, daring the opposition to beat him. Beckett, however, looked timid, and was trying to hit corners. This is not what he has done to be successful before, and he needs to go back to daring the opposition to beat him. He needs to channel his inner Pedro.

If Beckett is not able to adapt, then he may very well be finished as a decent starter in baseball. Perhaps he could still be effective in a relief role, but who pays $17million per year to a set up pitcher? Not even the Yankees do that. Beckett needs to adjust how he pitches, or hope that the loss in velocity was an aberrition. Otherwise, his career may be just about over.

Chasing Saves

It is one of the cardinal rules in fantasy baseball - Thou Shalt Not Chase Saves. It is just as easy to find a pitcher who will get 30 saves in the later rounds of most drafts as it is to take a closer early. In fact, more often than not, several closers will lose their jobs during the season, and their replacements will be found on the waiver wire. Everyone seems to recognize this.

And yet, such logic is lost in Major League Baseball. Teams are constantly overwhelmed by a high total in the saves category, while ignoring the horrific peripheral statistics. Case in point - the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Fernando Rodney, who just lost his spot as closer, was signed to a two year, $11 million dollar contract after the 2009 season. As the closer for Detroit that year, he had 37 saves, good for sixth in the American League that year. That was enough for the Angels to overlook other statistics that would indicate that Rodney really did not have that good of a season, specifically his 1.467 WHiP, his 1.49 K/BB ratio, his 4.40 ERA (which was good for an ERA+ of 104), and his WAR of 0.5 (barely above replacement level). But he got 37 saves!!!!

This is not the first time the Angels have done this. After the 2008 season, they signed Brian Fuentes to a two year, $17.5 million dollar contract. While Fuentes had a much better year than Rodney in his free agent season, the big number that stands out is his 30 saves. He did provide a solid 2009 for the Angels, leading the American League in saves, but lost his job in 2010 and was traded to the Minnesota Twins for a 26 year old minor league pitcher who has never been above AA. Not exactly a great return on investment.

Meanwhile, teams such as the Atlanta Braes and Oakland A's handle the closer position differently. They cycle different pitchers in, and do not spend a lot of money to fill that role. Since 1991, the following pitchers have led Atlanta in saves: Juan Berenguer (1991), Alejandro Pena (1992), Mike Stanton (1993), Greg McMichael (1994), Mark Wohlers (1995-1997), Kerry Ligtenberg (1998), John Rocker (1999-2001), John Smoltz (2002-2004), Chris Reitsma (2005), Bob Wickman (2006, 2007), Mike Gonzalez (2008), Rafael Soriano (2009), and Billy Wagner (2010). All were quite effective for the Braves, and were not nearly the financial investment of the 'top' closers in baseball.

Oakland, since Eckersley left, have had the following pitchers lead their team in saves: Billy Taylor (1996-1999), Jason Isringhausen (2000, 2001), Billy Koch (2002), Keith Foulke (2003), Octovio Dotel (2004), Huston Street (2005, 2006, 2008), Alan Embree (2007), and Andrew Bailey (2009, 2010). While the A's do not have the same level of turnover as the Braves, they still share the same philosophy - do not spend money on closers.

Closers can be found if teams know what to look at when it comes to a pitcher's statistics. Saves is the last thing the front office should be looking at.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Grand Theft Vrabel

This lockout must really be hitting the players hard.

At 5:30 am yesterday morning, Mike Vrabel of the Kansas City Chiefs was arrested for the theft of eight bottles of beer from a deli in the Beltarra Casino Resort and Spa. Vrabel was released later that morning after posting a $600 bond. In a statement released through his agent, he claimed that "It was an unfortunate misunderstanding, and I take full responsibility for the miscommunication." He also stated that "I feel comfortable that after talking with the appropriate parties, we will resolve this matter."

Now, things at casinos are expensive. We all get that. But the players must really be on some hard times if they have to resort to swiping booze from a deli instead of paying for it. Perhaps this is why the owners locked out the players in the first place - they knew that even the most vocal of them would not be able to go a month without turning to criminal activities to survive.

Of course, there may be a second explanation for all of this - that Vrabel was framed. Keep in mind that he did play for the New England Patriots. Also, this casino is in Indiana, home of the Colts. Who's to say that some unscrupulous casino employee, who also happens to be a Colts fan, didn't slip those beers into Vrabel's room and then call casino security? I guess getting Vrabel arrested makes up for 2001 through 2007 to them. Although, if the Colts had been playing that late into January, would the universe have had the joy of Peyton Manning chanting 'Cut that meat'?

In all seriousness, Vrabel is by all accounts a class act and a stand-up person. Chances are, this truly is just a misunderstanding, and it will be resolved soon.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Holy Aesop, John Madden's Still Alive!!!

After watching John Madden painfully attempt to be a sports broadcaster over the past few years before he drove his bus off into the sunset, it seemed that the universe had left him behind. Madden had become a caricature of himself, almost like the doddering old uncle that still thinks he is as sharp as he had been twenty years ago. While everyone else saw the decline, Madden never seemed cognisant of his depreciated skills.

Yet, Madden has just displayed a sign that he may be more on top of things than everyone had thought. While he appeared as though he was completely unaware that Eisenhower was no longer in the White House, let alone that football was not being played with leather helmets and quarterbacks may as well be wearing skirts for how often flags fly if someone sneezes near them, maybe his brain was in hibernation mode.

Showing a grasp on the reality of football, Madden has demanded, and gotten, a couple of significant changes in the Madden 2012 game. First, concussions are going to be treated as serious injuries. "Concussions are such a big thing, it has to be a big thing in the video game," Madden told The New York Times in a telephone interview. "It starts with young kids -- they start in video games. I think the osmosis is if you get a concussion, that's a serious thing and you shouldn't play. Or leading with the head that you want to eliminate. We want that message to be strong." To further this message, the announcers, Cris Collinsworth and Gus Johnson, will explain the severity and danger of a concussion when it is announced that the player will not return to the game.

Next, Madden 2012 will feature a greater emphasis on proper tackling. Helmet to helmet hits and head first tackling are going to be excluded, in an effort to make the game more of a tool to learn the proper way to play football for younger kids. The executive producer for Madden 2012, Phil Frazier, said that while it is not intended as a public service announcement, it is a means to educate younger kids to the dangers of concussions.

Good for Madden. More often than not, sports video games to not treat injuries with enough seriousness. Knowing that he still has enough left on the stick to realize that such things need to be paid attention to is a good thing for the video game industry, and for sports in general. Now if only the NFL meant it when they say they are trying to promote player safety, instead of just paying it lip service.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

It's Still Early

In this culture of instant analysis and overreaction, society has a tendency to have kneejerk reactions to daily events. With a sport that is almost daily, such as baseball, these reactions can be fairly entertaining at times, and at other times pathetic. As of the time that this is being written, teams have played only one of two games, yet people will still react as though it is game 160.

For instance, a quick look at the standings shows that the Royals, Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates all have better records than the Red Sox. Does this mean that the Sox are destined to have a terrible year while those four teams contend for a pennant? No. It means that the Sox lost their opener, while the Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates won theirs. The Royals have split their first two games against the Angels. Yet, after that defeat, Sox fans are, in a fashion typical to our society, reacting as if it is the end of the world. So, as a public service, the following message is being broadcast here on this blog: IT'S ONE GAME!!!! It's not the end of the world. If the Sox are under .500 after July, then feel free to panic.

To further prove this point, look at some performances thus far. Albert Pujols has grounded into three double plays and does not have a hit. Jon Lester gave up three home runs in a game for the first time in his career. He also did not strike out a batter for the first time since 2008. Brett Myers, who has a career mark of 7.46 K's/9, also did not strike out a batter in his start. On the other side of the coin, J.P. Arencibia is leading the American League in batting average (.750), home runs (2), and RBI (5). John Buck and Neil Walker lead the National League in RBI with four. Ramon Hernandez leads baseball in batting average, hitting .800 presently.

Does any of this mean that Pujols and Lester are going to have terrible seasons? Do these statistics mean that Arencibia is going to win the Triple Crown? Is Neil Walker going to keep up his 648 RBI pace? The answer is a resounding NO.

Early season baseball is great for seeing unlikely people at the top of leaderboards and for seeing surprising starts. But remember, everything evens out. There is a reason why Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland A's, maintains that the first two months are for evaluation - because nothing is proven yet. Baseball is about patience. Stay patient with your team and favorite players, and enjoy the season. If they are performing terribly around June/July, then it's time to panic.