At the beginning of 2011, the Tampa Bay Rays were written off as a team that had simply lost too many pieces to contend. Fast forward to the end of the year, and with the help of the Red Sox collapse, the Rays found themselves in the playoffs yet again.
The foundation for the Rays success begins with their formidable rotation. While they are all relatively young, Joe Maddon has proven to have delivered great results with youth. James Shields, at age 30, is the elder statesman amongst the starting rotation. While he had a career season last year, regression is to be expected, as his WHiP was far below his average mark. After a disastrous 2010, he managed to trim over two full runs from his ERA. He’s not as good as he looked in 2011, but not as bad as he was in 2010. The truth is someplace in between. Jeremy Hellickson is also a prime target for regression. Despite a fairly high walk rate and a low strikeout rate, he was helped immensely by a .223 batting average on balls in play against him. Some of the regression amongst Shields and Hellickson will be mitigated by the expected improvement from David Price and a season of Matt Moore in the rotation. Price continues to show improvement in cutting down his walk rate and has increased his strikeout rate. Moore is a phenom who tore through the minor leagues last year, and pitched well in the playoffs, as he was the surprise starter of Game One of the ALDS against Texas. Wade Davis had a solid sophomore season, and is likely to be the fifth starter, pushing Jeff Neimann either to long relief, or to the trade block.
The Rays gambled on making Kyle Farnsworth their closer last season, and it paid off. Farnsworth, who could typically be counted on to naplam any close game, put up a career season as he almost doubled his career total in saves. He returns as the closer again in 2012, but should he falter, the Rays have a plethora of options available. Jake McGee was drafted to be the Rays closer of the future, and would slide right in if needed. J.P. Howell had a disappointing 2011, but is likely to bounce back. Joel Peralta is an underrated set up man who got to an 0-2 count on 34% of batters faced last season. In that situation, he gave up only three hits all year. Fernando Rodney was also signed to a one year deal with a team option. If he can regain the form that he had previously, he may be another solid option for the seventh and eighth innings.
In the outfield are left fielder Desmond Jennings, center fielder B.J. Upton, and right fielder Matt Joyce. Upton has all the tools necessary to become great, but has a tendency to chase terrible pitches out of the strike zone and laying off fastballs down the middle of the plate. While he is a 20 home run/20 stolen base player, he may never be the elite offensive threat everyone expected. The same diagnosis can be placed on Desmond Jennings. While he was a rookie last year, he was expected to be Carl Crawford. He did end up being similar to Crawford, only it was the Carl Crawford from Boston last season. If he does not show significant improvement this season, it would not be out of the question for the Rays to try to find another option and trade Jennings. Matt Joyce can take a walk, steal the occasional base, and has a bit of power, but is more of a fourth outfielder. At this point, he probably is what he is.
At third base is Evan Longoria, who, even in a down year, had over thirty home runs. His batting average was dragged down by injuries and a .239 batting average on balls in play. Expect him to regain his form as an elite player, and the cornerstone of the lineup. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac will likely platoon at shortstop, although neither has proven to be an asset with the bat. Rodriguez may eventually take the job full time, as he has displayed a bit of power, and Brignac has an awful .272 on base percentage in his career. Either way, both players are merely holding down the position until Hak Ju Lee is brought up. Second base is held down by the very underrated Ben Zobrist. Zobrist not only provides one of the better bats in the lineup, but he also has the capability to play wherever he is needed. Carlos Pena was brought back, and while he may not hit for a high average, he does provide another power bat in the lineup, and plays Gold Glove caliber defense.
Catcher underwent a significant change, as both John Jaso and Kelly Stoppach were allowed to depart. In their place, the Rays brought in Jose Molina. While he is essentially useless with the bat, he is one of the best defensive catchers in the game. In fact, he was brought in for his ability to frame pitches – according to PitchFX, he saved 62.8 runs from framing pitches since 2008, despite playing a total of 264 games. Anything he contributes with the bat will be a bonus. At DH, the Rays brought in Orioles cast off Luke Scott, who had a terrible year in 2011, but had three consecutive years with 20+ home runs prior to that. Scott is another low-risk, high reward type player that the Rays seem to have luck with. Expect a bounce back year.
On paper, the Rays do not appear to have enough to contend with the Red Sox, Yankees, or even the Blue Jays this season. However, the same was said at the start of 2011. Joe Maddon is able to get the most out of the pieces he is given, and the pitching staff is more than enough to keep them competitive. Expect the Rays to contend for the wild card again this year.
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