Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Papi For the Hall?

When people think of David Ortiz, they think of the run from 2003 through 2007, where Big Papi may have been the most feared hitter in baseball. With his outgoing, gregarious personality, his larger-than-life persona, and his seemingly uncanny ability to come through in the clutch, Ortiz had become something akin to a god amongst Boston sports fans.

Yet, what has been somehow overlooked through his career is that Ortiz's numbers have reached a point where he may receive legitimate consideration for the Hall of Fame when he retires. As it stands presently, Papi has 1675 hits, 366 home runs, 1213 RBI, a .283 batting average, and an OPS+ of 136. These statistics will only improve, as he is just 35 years old and has at least three more years in him. At that point, he should be around 2000 hits, 430 home runs, and 1400 RBI.

Looking at baseballreference.com, the top 10 players on his comparison chart are interesting. There are only two Hall of Famers amongst them, with Ralph Kiner and Hank Greenburg at 9 and 10. The other eight are Lance Berkman, Paul Konerko, Mo Vaughn, Albert Belle, Derrek Lee, Kent Hrbek, David Justice, and Tim Salmon. None of these eight really strike anyone as a Hall of Fame caliber player, however, this list can change in the next three years.

What Papi has working for his Hall of Fame candidacy is entirely outside the realm of statistics, however. Ortiz has become a legend in the game, in part for his role on the Boston Red Sox World Series winning clubs in 2004 and 2007. He also has gained a reputation as the most feared clutch hitter in baseball, perhaps of all time. When it was close and late and Ortiz came to the dish, it was a must see event. More often than not, he would come through. This is one person whose reputation may exceed what he actually accomplished, and help his case going forward.

Ortiz seems like the type of player who will hang around the ballot for the 15 years he is allotted, then have his fate decided by the Veteran's Committee. Like a Don Mattingly or an Alan Trammell, he will be considered too good to fall off the ballot entirely, but not be good enough to get voted in. However, this could change. If Ortiz manages to get around 2200 hits and 450 home runs, which is an unlikely scenario, his mystique may be sufficient to elevate him to the hall at some point.

Papi will be an interesting case going forward. It will be fun to see if his reputation will outweigh his statistics.

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