Continuing with our annual football preview, we take a look at the NFC South today. As always, the teams are listed in order of expected finish.
New Orleans Saints: The fact that the Saints were able to make the playoffs with all of the injuries they dealt with last year is nothing less than miraculous. Sean Payton actually prefers to pound the football, regardless of how prolific the Saints passing game is with Drew Brees, Marques Colston, and Robert Meachem. The plethora of injuries suffered at the the running back position led the Saints to have to give significant carries to such luminaries as Julius Jones and Ladell Betts. And yet, they still won eleven games last year. The offensive line received an upgrade with the addition of Olin Kreutz, and Darren Sproles will take over the Reggie Bush job. Despite not being as much of a name, Sproles is probably better at what the Saints want him to do than Bush was. Jeremy Shockley left as a free agent, but the Saints actually upgraded with second year player Jimmy Graham.
The defense had it’s issues last year, particularly stopping the run. This was on full display for the world to see when Marshawn Lynch essentially ran over the entire Saints defense en route to one of the best touchdown runs in NFL history. To rectify this, the Saints drafted Cameron Jordan, who will start from Day 1. New Defensive tackles Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers were signed as free agents, and will make it difficult to move the ball through the middle of the line. The Saints need to put pressure on the quarterback in order to protect their secondary, where the only playmaker they really have is safety Malcolm Jenkins. The linebackers are getting younger, as new faces will be starting around Johnathan Vilma, who has entirely resurrected his career in New Orleans. Expect a dramatic improvement on this side of the ball.
The Saints improved dramatically, and should be considered a legit contender.
2. Atlanta Falcons: There is a lot of hype surrounding the Falcons this year to be a major player in the Super Bowl hunt this year, but that is completely asinine. In theory, the addition of Julio Jones should help Roddy White and Matt Ryan, but he is a major question mark. All throughout college he displayed an ability to make great catches, but would drop passes that hit him in the chest. The only way he can help the offense is by being a deep decoy. Expect Harry Douglas to be a better fit, and to contribute more this year. Tony Gonzalez is still considered by people to be an elite tight end, but his production is closer to Todd Heap than anything else. He is elite in name only. Michael Turner is getting older, and, let’s face it, is due to slow down as he approaches his 30th birthday.
The defense is, again, not as good as advertised. They play a base 4-3 without anything exotic. The coverage packages are conservative and vanilla. For them to be any good, they need to generate a pass rush. John Abraham continued his revival in 2010, but the rest of the line was unable to generate much pressure on the quarterback. Enter Ray Edwards, who signed a lucrative contract as a free agent to attempt to be the answer. This is a risky proposition, as Edwards never posted double digit sacks, despite playing with the Williams Wall and Jared Allen in Minnesota. How will he fare when he becomes the target of double teams? The linebackers, headed by a healthy Curtis Lofton, are solid. Sean Weatherspoon may be a future star at linebacker, but he needs to stay healthy. The secondary is average, and plays assignment based football. Brent Grimes is solid, but Dunta Robinson needs to recapture his form from back in Houston.
The Falcons should be good, but not great. They will be on the cusp for a wild card slot.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs are an extremely young team that had a lot of things go well for them last year. While they managed to win 10 games, only one came against a squad with a winning record, and that was when the Saints sat their players on week 17. The Bucs will need to continue their progression, particularly on offense. Josh Freeman enters his second full season as the starter, and looks like he could be a legitimate starting quarterback. In fact, he seems destined to become another Roethlisberger type, only wihtout the off-field incidents. Rookie free agent LeGarrette Blount came out of nowhere to gain over 1000 yards, depsite only starting eight games. Four round draft pick Mike Williams exploded, leading the Bucs in receiving yards and touchdowns. Kellen Winslow is still a top tight end, but they need to find a second receiver. Arrelious Benn was hurt last year and is expected to get that job, but Dezmon Briscoe may be the eventual starter there.
The defense, much like the offense, needs to progress. The defensive line could start players that are all either rookies or second year players. Mason Foster will take over for Barrett Ruud, who was the Bucs leading tackler last year. However, Ruud did not make a lot of plays, so they drafted what they feel is an upgrade. The secondary still have the venerable Ronde Barber, and talented plays like Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson. However, Jackson is coming off a year long suspension, and Talib has had a number of legal issues since entering the NFL. The biggest issue will be finding leadership. While Barber is still around, someone needs to step up and be ready to take that mantle when he retires. Chances are, it will be Gerard McCoy.
The Bucs will make strides this year, but it will not show in the record. They are, however, a team on the rise.
4. Carolina Panthers: Let’s talk about the positives here first – the running game has three solid backs, and they still have the good Steve Smith. Greg Olsen will provide a nice red zone target, and help the young quarterbacks when they are running for their lives. Now for the rest of the team. Cam Newton managed to parlay one good season in college into being the first pick overall in the 2011 draft, just one year after the Panthers drafted Jimmy Clausen in the second round. That essentially was the equivalent of lighting a draft choice on fire. Clausen may not have been great, but Newton will be worse. Remember Akili Smith? Meet this generations version – Akili 2.0. They have not had a number two receiver since Mushin Muhammad left the first time, and they even brought him back in an attempt to give Steve Smith some help. At this point in time, Smith may as well just sit down on the field during plays to force his way out of town.
The defense has it’s bright spots. Charles Johnson stepped into the void left by Julius Peppers, and performed at a level that was completely unexpected. Terrell McClain could be a beast in the 4-3, and will help the Panthers stuff the run. Also helping the defense is the return of several veterans that had to deal with injuries last year. Thomas Davis may finally be healthy, and Jon Beason is an extremely talented player. The secondary has solid starters, but less than nothing for depth. The Panthers will try to blitz often in passing situations in order to allievate pressure on that group.
The Panthers are not as bad as they were last year, but they are not that much better either. It’s going to be another long year in Carolina.
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