1. St. Louis Rams:Over the past few years, the offense has been all about Steven Jackson. Jackson has been on the receiving end of a lot of hits over that time, and has shaken off the nagging injuries to account for 72% of the Rams carries since 2008. Jackson will not have to shoulder that much of the lead this year, as the Rams have finally gotten some actual depth behind him in Jerious Norwood and Cadillac Williams. They have also finally found themselves a quarterback in Sam Bradford. Bradford looks like a future star in the league, and has Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator. This will only help his development. At receiver, he has what is essentially Wes Welker West in Danny Amendola, and Mike Sims-Walker, who is looking to jump start his career after faltering over the past season and a half in Jacksonville. Lance Kendricks will make an immediate impact in the passing game at tight end.
The defense, particularly the defensive line, could be outright scary for the opposition this year. Chris Long is beginning to tap into his potential, and appears to be on the verge of becoming a dominant player. James Hall is still a steady player, and Robert Quinn will be worked into the rotation. As he develops, he could become yet another steady player on that line. At linebacker, James Laurinaitis is solid in the middle, but the rest of the linebacking corps is a bit lacking. They gave up a lot of big plays last year, but should see an upgrade with the signing of Ben Leber. The biggest problem the Rams defense will have is in the secondary. The loss of Oshiomogho Atogwe will hurt a lot, but they attempted to lessen the blow by bringing in Quintin Mikell and Al Harris. The cornerbacks do not have any depth at all, with the injury to third corner Jerome Murphy. If either of the starters gets hurt, the Rams are in a lot of trouble in the passing game. Look for the Rams to attempt to generate a lot of pressure with the line and through creative blitz packages to help the secondary.
The Rams have the pieces in place to be the dominant team in the NFC West for a long time. It starts this season, as they will finish above .500.
2. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals season was doomed from the start last year, as they attempted to go with the combo platter of suckage at quarterback. After realizing that Derek Anderson, John Skelton, and Max Hall are not NFL quarterbacks, they went out and traded their top defensive back in Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie (aka the Good Cromartie) for Kevin Kolb. Kolb is an accurate quarterback, but there are durability issues here. He has also displayed a penchant for turning the ball over, with eleven interceptions against fourteen touchdowns. Can Kolb be anything more than a backup? The running game is thin, as Tim Hightower was traded and rookie Ryan Williams is out for the season. This leaves the job solely to Beanie Wells, who has yet to show that he can actually do anything as a running back. Look for Chester Taylor, he of the 2.4 yards per carry last year, to get a lot of touches. The receivers may as well be Larry Fitzgerald, Larry Fitzgerald, and Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is a top three receiver, and should sue for a lack of support. The other starter is either going to be Andre Roberts or Early Doucet. Todd Heap was brought in as a free agent, and Rob Housler was drafted in the third round, but when do the Cardinals use the tight end? This could be yet another mess on offense.
The defense was absolutely terrible last year, looking at times old and at other times inexperienced. While they would like to trun the defense into Pittsburgh West, there is simply a lack of talent on this side of the football. Going with their third defensive co-ordinator in three years does not help, since unless he happens to be Gandalf and can turn nothing into a formidible cast of characters, it won’t matter. There is nothing even close to resembling a pass rush, either from the line or from the linebackers. Speaking of the linebackers, Joey porter and Clark Haggans were a travesty last year. They ae simply too slow to be able to make the types of plays that are required in this defense. In the secondary, Adrian Wilson is solid, and great on blitzes. Patrick Peterson will start immediately, and will need to fill the void left by Rodgers-Cromartie being traded. Look for the Cardinals to go four for four on new defensive co-ordinators next year.
The Cardinals need a lot of help, so why pick them to finish second? Because the rest of the division is even more of a train wreck.
3. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers seemingly have a lot of talent on offense, but can never make it work. Why is this? Quite simply, it is due to the quarterback. News flash for those of you that didn’t know (probably Alex Smith’s family), but Alex Smith is terrible. If he is going to do anything with his career, aside from being known as the guy the 49ers drafted instead of Aaron Rodgers, it has to be now. Otherwise, expect to see Colin Kaepernick after the bye week. The offense will once again feature a heavy dose of Frank Gore, and will need him to stay healthy. Kendall Hunter looks like he can develop into a Brain Westbrook type of player, but can he shoulder the load
The defense had a lot of turnover, as six starters from last season are no longer with the team. Isaac Sopoaga moves over to nose tackle, taking over for Aubrayo Franklin. Justin Smith is a solid pass rusher on the line, and might actually be the best at putting pressure on the quarterback in San Fran. The linebackers are the strength of this unit, and are why the 49ers have a solid run defense. Patrick Willis is in the discussion for best middle linebacker in the NFL, and rookie Aldon Smith will provide a much needed pass rusher from the edge. NaVarro Bowman gets a chance to start with the departure of Takeo Spikes, and looks ready for the responsibility. Getting that pass rush will be important for the secondary. While Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner are solid players, they are not even close to being elite. Forcing the quarterback into mistakes will dramatically help them, and make the secondary look better than it actually is.
The 49ers have some talent, and are taking the right steps. They need another solid draft, and they could be in contention as soon as next year.
4. Seattle Seahawks: Do not be fooled by Seattle making the playoffs and winning a playoff game into thinking that they are a good team, because they quite simply are not. They took a major step back when they allowed Matt Hasselbeck to depart as a free agent and brought in Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson was terrible to the point that his Vikings teammates flew to Mississippi to beg Brett Favre to return. Not exactly something that makes you have any confidence in Jackson as a starting quarterback, right? Marshawn Lynch had perhaps the greatest run in playoff history, but can he be the answer as the every down back? The receiving corps actually improved, with the addition of Sidney Rice and tight end Zach Miller. Adding Robert Gallery to the line helps as well, but there is not a lot of talent elsewhere on this side of the football.
The defense could actually be surprisingly good. Colin Cole, Red Bryant, and Brandon Mebane were out for a combined 18 games last year, but if healthy, will help solidify the run defense. While the front four only had 24 sacks last year, the number will improve as long as the line stays intact. Linebacker is a position that is in transition, as Lofa Tatupu was released. For the defense to truly emerge, Aaron Curry needs to live up to the hype that comes with being the fourth overall pick in the draft. Leroy Hill seems to finally be back from injury, and will add a dimension of toughness and an attitude to the defense. The secondary is flat out huge, as Pete Carroll has specifically targeted taller cornerbacks and safeties. Safety Kam Chancellor is 6’3. Cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman are 6’4 and 6’3, respectively. In fact, not one member of the secondary is under 5’10. If this experiment works out as well as Carroll is hoping it does, then the Seattle secondary could be rather formidable.
Seattle needs a lot more help on offense to be able to compete. Look for them to draft a quarterback in 2012, and attempt to drag themselves out of the cellar once again.
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