It is one of the cardinal rules in fantasy baseball - Thou Shalt Not Chase Saves. It is just as easy to find a pitcher who will get 30 saves in the later rounds of most drafts as it is to take a closer early. In fact, more often than not, several closers will lose their jobs during the season, and their replacements will be found on the waiver wire. Everyone seems to recognize this.
And yet, such logic is lost in Major League Baseball. Teams are constantly overwhelmed by a high total in the saves category, while ignoring the horrific peripheral statistics. Case in point - the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Fernando Rodney, who just lost his spot as closer, was signed to a two year, $11 million dollar contract after the 2009 season. As the closer for Detroit that year, he had 37 saves, good for sixth in the American League that year. That was enough for the Angels to overlook other statistics that would indicate that Rodney really did not have that good of a season, specifically his 1.467 WHiP, his 1.49 K/BB ratio, his 4.40 ERA (which was good for an ERA+ of 104), and his WAR of 0.5 (barely above replacement level). But he got 37 saves!!!!
This is not the first time the Angels have done this. After the 2008 season, they signed Brian Fuentes to a two year, $17.5 million dollar contract. While Fuentes had a much better year than Rodney in his free agent season, the big number that stands out is his 30 saves. He did provide a solid 2009 for the Angels, leading the American League in saves, but lost his job in 2010 and was traded to the Minnesota Twins for a 26 year old minor league pitcher who has never been above AA. Not exactly a great return on investment.
Meanwhile, teams such as the Atlanta Braes and Oakland A's handle the closer position differently. They cycle different pitchers in, and do not spend a lot of money to fill that role. Since 1991, the following pitchers have led Atlanta in saves: Juan Berenguer (1991), Alejandro Pena (1992), Mike Stanton (1993), Greg McMichael (1994), Mark Wohlers (1995-1997), Kerry Ligtenberg (1998), John Rocker (1999-2001), John Smoltz (2002-2004), Chris Reitsma (2005), Bob Wickman (2006, 2007), Mike Gonzalez (2008), Rafael Soriano (2009), and Billy Wagner (2010). All were quite effective for the Braves, and were not nearly the financial investment of the 'top' closers in baseball.
Oakland, since Eckersley left, have had the following pitchers lead their team in saves: Billy Taylor (1996-1999), Jason Isringhausen (2000, 2001), Billy Koch (2002), Keith Foulke (2003), Octovio Dotel (2004), Huston Street (2005, 2006, 2008), Alan Embree (2007), and Andrew Bailey (2009, 2010). While the A's do not have the same level of turnover as the Braves, they still share the same philosophy - do not spend money on closers.
Closers can be found if teams know what to look at when it comes to a pitcher's statistics. Saves is the last thing the front office should be looking at.
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Thursday, March 17, 2011
2011 Preview - National League East
This is the fourth installment of the six part 2011 baseball preview. Today is the first of the National League divisions, the NL East. The teams are listed in the order of their anticipated finish.
1. Atlanta Braves: The Braves may have built themselves another dynasty. Their offense, already solid, was improved with the acquisition of Dan Uggla from the Florida Marlins. Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman add youth to a lineup with several veteran bats. Chipper Jones returns for another year, and is looking good thus far in spring training. The pitching staff is solid and deep, with Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens atop the rotation. Top prospects Julio Teheran and Mike Minor headline a crop of young pitchers that are making their way towards the majors.
With the acquisition of Uggla's bat, the Braves also traded for his glove - or lack thereof. While Uggla is not as bad as Brooks Conrad was for the Braves during the 2010 postseason at second, he's not vastly better either. Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters, two young hard throwing relievers, are vying for the closer position vacated by the retired Billy Wagner. Whether or not either will be able to be effective as the closer will be a major question. Also, for the first time since 1990, the Braves do not have the familiar presence of Bobby Cox in the dugout. His hand picked successor, Fredi Gonzalez, takes over this talented club as he tries to lead them back to a perpetual postseason berth.
The Braves are very well set up for 2011 and beyond. They may not have another 14 year run of postseason appearances, but they will be making October appearances for the foreseeable future.
2. Philadelphia Phillies: Ye Gods, this rotation is stacked. With the surprise acquisition of Cliff Lee via free agency, the Phillies can trot out four legitimate aces, as he joins Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels in the rotation. Joe Blanton, their number five starter, would slot as a number three on the majority of teams in baseball. The rotation is backed up by a solid bullpen, as a reborn Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson set up Brad Lidge. Lidge bounced back from a terrible 2009 to post his typically solid season, holding hitters to a .194 batting average, significantly down from the .301 he gave up the year before.
The offense, by name value alone, is solid, despite the loss of Jayson Werth. However, last season the Phillies scored either one run or were shut out in 34 of the 162 games played. Home runs decreased from 224 in 2009 to 166 in 2010. While the age of the lineup is certainly a factor, the Phillies big hitters (Utley, Victorino, Howard, and Rollins) are also seeing fewer fastballs. As batters that do most of their damage on the heater, this trend severely limits their ability to produce.
The rotation should be enough to ensure that the Phillies win majority of their games. But the offense is going to need to rebound in a major fashion for them to win the NL East.
3. Florida Marlins: The Marlins two biggest moves were to trade Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Michael Dunn, and to sign Javier Vazquez. At first, these moves would not cause excitement. However, Infante has proven to be a solid bat, and he solidifies the defense in the middle of the diamond. Dunn was added to a much improved bullpen to help the Marlins protect any leads. Vazquez has historically pitched much better in the National League, and in the NL East in particular. With a rotation fronted by the under appreciated Josh Johnson, and a lineup featuring Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, and some good young talent, the Marlins may be a lot better than people think.
The key for the Marlins will be whether or not the younger players perform up to their potential. Stanton hit 22 home runs in 359 at bats in 2010, and is expected to improve upon that number. Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez had solid rookie seasons, but need to improve for the Marlins to compete. John Buck was brought in as a free agent to solidify the catching position, however he is also a question mark after coming off of a career year in Toronto.
The Marlins will surprise some people in 2011, as long as the young players perform up to their potential. It would not be any surprise if they find themselves ahead of the Phillies at the end of the year.
4. Washington Nationals: The Nationals improved their offense with the signing of Jayson Werth, and also announced their intention to actually build a competitive team at the same time. While they may have overpaid Werth, teams like the Nations have to spend more than market value to attract free agents - look at how the Tigers acquired Ivan Rodriguez. Bryce Harper and the injured Stephan Strasburg headline a crop of elite prospects that will help to improve the Nationals in the next couple of season.
Aside from Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond, there is not much to like about the 2011 major league roster. Majority of the roster would either be bench pieces or be in AAA for clubs that are expected to compete, and even some that won't. Livan Hernandez is expected to lead the rotation, at age 36. If Jordan Zimmerman and Chien-Ming Wang can come back and pitch as well as they had before injury, the pitching staff would look a lot better. Until that time, there just is not a lot of talent here.
The future looks good in Washington, but the 2011 season will still be bad. They will improve over last year, but they are still a couple of years away.
5. New York Mets: To call the New York Mets a train wreck would be disrespectful - to train wrecks. They are much, much worse than that. With the situation involving the Bernie Madoff pyramid scheme, the Mets were financially hog tied and unable to make moves. Aside from David Wright, the only positive for the Mets involves expiring contracts. The mistakes known as Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo run out after 2011, as does 2012. Even though the Wilpon's needed to borrow $25 million from Major League Baseball this offseason, they have $36.5 million dollars off the books next season. Should the option on Francisco Rodriguez's contract not be triggered, that number jumps up to $50.5 million.
This team was a complete disaster, and that was even before the news that Johan Santana may be out for the entire season. Injuries, under performing free agent signings, and a lack of talent permeate the Mets. Jason Bay provided a total of six home runs for the 4 year/$66 million contract he signed. Jose Reyes cannot stay healthy. The rotation, minus Santana, is headed by either Mike Pelfrey or R. A. Dickey. This is what a team with over $133 million in payroll obligations has to look forward to? Really?
The Mets are flat out awful. As much as it would be best to just avert the eyes and ignore this disaster, the perverse interest in watching carnage is the only thing that makes seeing a Mets game worthwhile.
1. Atlanta Braves: The Braves may have built themselves another dynasty. Their offense, already solid, was improved with the acquisition of Dan Uggla from the Florida Marlins. Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman add youth to a lineup with several veteran bats. Chipper Jones returns for another year, and is looking good thus far in spring training. The pitching staff is solid and deep, with Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens atop the rotation. Top prospects Julio Teheran and Mike Minor headline a crop of young pitchers that are making their way towards the majors.
With the acquisition of Uggla's bat, the Braves also traded for his glove - or lack thereof. While Uggla is not as bad as Brooks Conrad was for the Braves during the 2010 postseason at second, he's not vastly better either. Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters, two young hard throwing relievers, are vying for the closer position vacated by the retired Billy Wagner. Whether or not either will be able to be effective as the closer will be a major question. Also, for the first time since 1990, the Braves do not have the familiar presence of Bobby Cox in the dugout. His hand picked successor, Fredi Gonzalez, takes over this talented club as he tries to lead them back to a perpetual postseason berth.
The Braves are very well set up for 2011 and beyond. They may not have another 14 year run of postseason appearances, but they will be making October appearances for the foreseeable future.
2. Philadelphia Phillies: Ye Gods, this rotation is stacked. With the surprise acquisition of Cliff Lee via free agency, the Phillies can trot out four legitimate aces, as he joins Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels in the rotation. Joe Blanton, their number five starter, would slot as a number three on the majority of teams in baseball. The rotation is backed up by a solid bullpen, as a reborn Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson set up Brad Lidge. Lidge bounced back from a terrible 2009 to post his typically solid season, holding hitters to a .194 batting average, significantly down from the .301 he gave up the year before.
The offense, by name value alone, is solid, despite the loss of Jayson Werth. However, last season the Phillies scored either one run or were shut out in 34 of the 162 games played. Home runs decreased from 224 in 2009 to 166 in 2010. While the age of the lineup is certainly a factor, the Phillies big hitters (Utley, Victorino, Howard, and Rollins) are also seeing fewer fastballs. As batters that do most of their damage on the heater, this trend severely limits their ability to produce.
The rotation should be enough to ensure that the Phillies win majority of their games. But the offense is going to need to rebound in a major fashion for them to win the NL East.
3. Florida Marlins: The Marlins two biggest moves were to trade Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Michael Dunn, and to sign Javier Vazquez. At first, these moves would not cause excitement. However, Infante has proven to be a solid bat, and he solidifies the defense in the middle of the diamond. Dunn was added to a much improved bullpen to help the Marlins protect any leads. Vazquez has historically pitched much better in the National League, and in the NL East in particular. With a rotation fronted by the under appreciated Josh Johnson, and a lineup featuring Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, and some good young talent, the Marlins may be a lot better than people think.
The key for the Marlins will be whether or not the younger players perform up to their potential. Stanton hit 22 home runs in 359 at bats in 2010, and is expected to improve upon that number. Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez had solid rookie seasons, but need to improve for the Marlins to compete. John Buck was brought in as a free agent to solidify the catching position, however he is also a question mark after coming off of a career year in Toronto.
The Marlins will surprise some people in 2011, as long as the young players perform up to their potential. It would not be any surprise if they find themselves ahead of the Phillies at the end of the year.
4. Washington Nationals: The Nationals improved their offense with the signing of Jayson Werth, and also announced their intention to actually build a competitive team at the same time. While they may have overpaid Werth, teams like the Nations have to spend more than market value to attract free agents - look at how the Tigers acquired Ivan Rodriguez. Bryce Harper and the injured Stephan Strasburg headline a crop of elite prospects that will help to improve the Nationals in the next couple of season.
Aside from Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond, there is not much to like about the 2011 major league roster. Majority of the roster would either be bench pieces or be in AAA for clubs that are expected to compete, and even some that won't. Livan Hernandez is expected to lead the rotation, at age 36. If Jordan Zimmerman and Chien-Ming Wang can come back and pitch as well as they had before injury, the pitching staff would look a lot better. Until that time, there just is not a lot of talent here.
The future looks good in Washington, but the 2011 season will still be bad. They will improve over last year, but they are still a couple of years away.
5. New York Mets: To call the New York Mets a train wreck would be disrespectful - to train wrecks. They are much, much worse than that. With the situation involving the Bernie Madoff pyramid scheme, the Mets were financially hog tied and unable to make moves. Aside from David Wright, the only positive for the Mets involves expiring contracts. The mistakes known as Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo run out after 2011, as does 2012. Even though the Wilpon's needed to borrow $25 million from Major League Baseball this offseason, they have $36.5 million dollars off the books next season. Should the option on Francisco Rodriguez's contract not be triggered, that number jumps up to $50.5 million.
This team was a complete disaster, and that was even before the news that Johan Santana may be out for the entire season. Injuries, under performing free agent signings, and a lack of talent permeate the Mets. Jason Bay provided a total of six home runs for the 4 year/$66 million contract he signed. Jose Reyes cannot stay healthy. The rotation, minus Santana, is headed by either Mike Pelfrey or R. A. Dickey. This is what a team with over $133 million in payroll obligations has to look forward to? Really?
The Mets are flat out awful. As much as it would be best to just avert the eyes and ignore this disaster, the perverse interest in watching carnage is the only thing that makes seeing a Mets game worthwhile.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
The possible reason behind Chipper's decline
Come this time of year, if you play fantasy baseball, it is around the time when you begin to scout for your leagues. Statistics get crunched, trends are looked at, and a draft list begins to take place. If you happen to be in deep leagues, you look beyond the top 15 at each position, and look for players that may be able to have bounce back or unexpected seasons.
Looking over Chipper Jones' statistics over the past three years, there is a marked decline. Yes, Jones is still taking his walks, however his power has decreased dramatically and his batting average has suffered. Perhaps this is due to age (Jones is 39) and injury, but there may be more to it than that. In 2008, Jones hit .364, leading the National League, and slugged 22 homers. In 2009, that went down to .264 and 18 homers, despite 62 more plate appearances. Last season, in 381 plate appearances, he batted .265 with 10 homers.
Part of this may be due to bad luck. His batting average in balls in play has dropped from .383 in 2008 to .287 in 2009 and .281 in 2010. His career average on BABip is .315, so there is a significant difference there. Also, he has a lower than normal BABip over the past two seasons, as the median falls at .299.
However, there is a disturbing trend that may signify why his BABip is decreasing so rapidly. When he makes contact with an offspeed pitch or a breaking ball on the outside part of the plate, his batting average has fallen rapidly. Back in 2008, his batting average on such pitches .358. This fell to .274 in 2009, and down to an atrocious .136 in 2010.
Typically, when a batter is about to lose his abilities, he is no longer able to keep up with the fastball or maintain his batting eye. With Chipper, this is not the case. He can still hit the fastball, and he can still draw a walk. Yet, he no longer seems to be able to hit softer pitches on the outside half. It will be curious to see how he hits these pitches throughout the spring, and whether or not pitchers begin to throw him more offspeed pitches on the outer half.
Jones has had a great Hall of Fame worthy career. But his time is about up, and it's interesting in how the decline has been this atypical.
Looking over Chipper Jones' statistics over the past three years, there is a marked decline. Yes, Jones is still taking his walks, however his power has decreased dramatically and his batting average has suffered. Perhaps this is due to age (Jones is 39) and injury, but there may be more to it than that. In 2008, Jones hit .364, leading the National League, and slugged 22 homers. In 2009, that went down to .264 and 18 homers, despite 62 more plate appearances. Last season, in 381 plate appearances, he batted .265 with 10 homers.
Part of this may be due to bad luck. His batting average in balls in play has dropped from .383 in 2008 to .287 in 2009 and .281 in 2010. His career average on BABip is .315, so there is a significant difference there. Also, he has a lower than normal BABip over the past two seasons, as the median falls at .299.
However, there is a disturbing trend that may signify why his BABip is decreasing so rapidly. When he makes contact with an offspeed pitch or a breaking ball on the outside part of the plate, his batting average has fallen rapidly. Back in 2008, his batting average on such pitches .358. This fell to .274 in 2009, and down to an atrocious .136 in 2010.
Typically, when a batter is about to lose his abilities, he is no longer able to keep up with the fastball or maintain his batting eye. With Chipper, this is not the case. He can still hit the fastball, and he can still draw a walk. Yet, he no longer seems to be able to hit softer pitches on the outside half. It will be curious to see how he hits these pitches throughout the spring, and whether or not pitchers begin to throw him more offspeed pitches on the outer half.
Jones has had a great Hall of Fame worthy career. But his time is about up, and it's interesting in how the decline has been this atypical.
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