As the NFL season approaches, people are gearing up for their fantasy football drafts. Some have happened already, yet most will take place this weekend, as it is the weekend before the season begins.
Yesterday, we provided some names to remember for later in the year in our Deep Sleepers post. Today, we’re going to provide a few busts to avoid this upcoming year. Again, the ‘experts’ continue to trot out the same bust players (like Mike Vick), so you won’t get that here. What you will get are people that are flying under the bust radar. Such as….
Quarterback - Tony Romo: First, let us point out that the Cowboys offense actually performed better when Romo was injured last season. Next, as almost useless as Roy Williams the receiver was, he is a better receiving option than Kevin Ogletree or whatever else they are sticking as their third receiver. Third, as explosive as Dez Bryant can potentially be, he is still very unproven. Fourth, they Cowboys are going to run the ball more with Jason Garrett as their head coach than they did with Wade Phillips. Add this all together, and it spells a season that may be better for the Cowboys as a team, but worse for Romo in fantasy leagues. Romo is right now the seventh quarterback going in drafts on average, but he will likely finish outside the top 12 in points.
Other potential busts: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Mike Vick
Running Back – Jamaal Charles: A lot of people have been on the Maurice Jones-Drew as a bust bandwagon, yet they love Jamaal Charles. While Jones-Drew is definitely bust material, Charles has a lot more red flags when looking at his situation. Charles is going in the top five based off of his potential and his absolutely insane 6.4 yards per carry last season. Despite all of the yards he managed to accumulate, he only scored a total of eight touchdowns, two of which came in one game. While he is supposed to get a larger share of the workload, there are a lot of questions as to whether or not he can handle it. Already, he has a leg injury. Plus, there is still the spectre of Thomas Jones lurking in the background. If he loses even one yard per carry, then his rushing total is only just over 1200 yards. Basically, this would make him Peyton Hillis without the scores. The potential for justifying his selection is here, however it is more likely he will put up numbers that would be acquired with a fourth round pick.
Other potential busts: Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden
Wide Receiver – Greg Jennings: Here is someone that is not getting a lot of run as a possible bust. Yet, there is a statistical trend that shows that Jennings may not live up to being the fourth or fifth receiver off the board. Specifically, prior to the injury to Jermichael Finley, Jennings averaged six targets a game. After the injury, that number increased to 8.2. Not only is Finley healthy, but the Packers added a second solid receiving tight end in the draft in D.J. Williams. This way, in case Finley gets hurt again, they have someone that can step in and make plays. Added to this is the return of Ryan Grant, who missed all but one game last year due to injury. Having Grant back in the lineup means that the Packers will run the ball more, which further limits the potential for touches for Jennings. Let someone else draft him based on last season.
Other potential busts: Dwayne Bowe, Dez Bryant, Steve Johnson
Tight End – Vernon Davis: By all statistical measurements, Davis had a monster year last season, as Mike Singletary was able to finally tap into his immense potential. Yet, in a game by game breakdown, there are troubling signs. Davis had three games last year with only one reception. He had eight games with 36 or fewer yards. Davis was the ultimate boom or bust play at tight end last year. Add to this the statements made by Jim Harbaugh about how Frank Gore is going to be the focal point of the offense, and how they would like to work Delanie Walker into the passing game more, and this spells a backslide for Davis statistically.
Other potential busts: Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, Owen Daniels
Showing posts with label fantasy footall. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy footall. Show all posts
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers
By now, almost every fantasy football ‘expert’ has created a list of sleepers for people to target. In fact, we’ve even done a podcast on it (take a listen – we know what we’re talking about. Money back guarantee on that). But it takes someone with some real knowledge and stones to provide a list of some really deep sleepers for you all to keep an eye on for later in the year. Thankfully for you all, Mr. Dave’s Sports Blog is not afraid to make these predictions.
Now, none of these players should be drafted unless you happen to be in an insanely deep league. However, these are people that will probably earn jobs by the end of the year. Keep an eye on them, put them on a watch list, and remember that these people could be the next Peyton Hillis or Mike Vick. Of course, it’s just as likely they could be the next person you see bagging your groceries at the local Food Mart. Anyway, onto the list!
Quarterback – Colin Kaepernick: Here’s a news flash for all of you – Alex Smith just isn’t that good. He has never thrown for more than 2890 yards in a season. He has 51 career touchdowns to 53 career interceptions. He has not proven to have the ability to manage a game and to actually win a game, as attested to by his 19-31 record as a starting quarterback. Kaepernick is mobile, has a better arm than Smith does, and is actually accurate with the ball. The quarterback in San Fran is going to be protected this year, as they plan on making Frank Gore the centerpiece of their offense, but that would only help a rookie like Kaepernick. Chances are, he’s starting by Week 8 (San Fran has a bye on Week 7), and can provide some solid fantasy league points as a duel threat quarterback.
Running Back – DeMarco Murray: The Dallas Cowboys have had a tendency over the past couple of years to utilize all three running backs on their roster. This year, they got rid of Marion Barber III, and drafted DeMarco Murray in the third round. Murray is a perfect fit for what the Cowboys want to do on offense, as he can catch the ball and is a great runner. Also, he has a knack for finding the end zone, with 63 total touchdowns in his college career. Keep in mind that for all the fantasy love that Felix Jones is getting, he has scored eight touchdowns total in his NFL career. With Murray’s track record of being able to score in college, chances are that he gets a shot with the ball near the goal line. In fact, it could end up where Murray is starting over Jones at the end of the year, as there are questions about his durability. At any rate, Murray could prove quite valuable in fantasy leagues, especially in touchdown leagues.
Wide Receiver – Eric Decker: Here’s the deal with Decker – what else is there ahead of him on the depth chart? Brandon Lloyd put together a career year in his eighth season. Prior to that, he was an afterthought for fantasy league purposes. Can he really do it again? Eddie Royal had a strong rookie season, then fell off the map last year. Meanwhile, Decker was a first round talent that the Broncos got in the third round due to an injury he suffered in college. This essentially turned his rookie season to a redshirt year. Decker has been playing the Z receiver and in the slot with the starting unit all training camp. He has great hands, knows how to run precise routes, and is a big target in the red zone. Also, it helps that Kyle Orton is actually a much better quarterback than people seem to realize. As long as Orton does not get Tebowed this year again, someone in that offense can have a huge year catching the ball. Decker would be a good option, as would….
Tight End – Julius Thomas: Thomas is right now behind Daniel Fells on the Denver Broncos depth chart. However, is happens to be a much better receiver, and tight end in general, than Fells, despite having only played two years of organized football. Already nicknamed ‘Mr. Red Zone’ by his Broncos teammates, Thomas was a former basketball player for Portland State, whose size and leaping ability will translate to the pros. It may take a bit before he sees consistant action, but he has the potential to be a touchdown scoring machine when he finally sees the field. Remember this name for around the middle of the season, and be ready to snag his talents.
Kicker and Defense: Look, we’re not going to waste your time by trying to predict something as nebulous as a kicker and a defensive unit. To illustrate the insanity of that, keep the following in mind: Arizona, who was a terrible defense for all intents and purposes, finished third in standard scoring leagues for defense due to defensive touchdowns. Sebastian Janikowski was undrafted in most leagues, and led kickers in points. Trying to predict these positions makes as much sense as stapling Jell-O to the ceiling. However, there are a couple of things to look at when trying to make your selections for these positions.
For kickers, it is better to find a bad offense than a good one. While this sounds contradictory, given the nature of the position, here’s the reason – bad offenses do not score touchdowns. Chances are, most of their points will come off of field goals, which benefits the kicker in a fantasy league format. As such, you want an accurate kicker with a strong leg on a bad team. After all, how else would Janikowski be considered the top kicker in any respect, aside from being able to eat Twinkies and down six packs of beer?
Now for defenses. The best thing to look at with a defense is their pass rush. If a defense can get to the quarterback, that will disguise a number of deficencies in other areas. By putting pressure on the quarterback, passes will not be as accurate, allowing even a terrible secondary to make plays. Also, sacks can lead to fumbles and turnovers, as the strip sack has become rather vogue in the NFL at this point. Find a defense with a strong pass rush, and you will have yourself a solid fantasy league defense.
Hopefully these predictions help you all out later in the year. Remember, these are not players that should be drafted in any but the deepest leagues, yet you should keep them in the back of your mind for mid season pickups.
Now, none of these players should be drafted unless you happen to be in an insanely deep league. However, these are people that will probably earn jobs by the end of the year. Keep an eye on them, put them on a watch list, and remember that these people could be the next Peyton Hillis or Mike Vick. Of course, it’s just as likely they could be the next person you see bagging your groceries at the local Food Mart. Anyway, onto the list!
Quarterback – Colin Kaepernick: Here’s a news flash for all of you – Alex Smith just isn’t that good. He has never thrown for more than 2890 yards in a season. He has 51 career touchdowns to 53 career interceptions. He has not proven to have the ability to manage a game and to actually win a game, as attested to by his 19-31 record as a starting quarterback. Kaepernick is mobile, has a better arm than Smith does, and is actually accurate with the ball. The quarterback in San Fran is going to be protected this year, as they plan on making Frank Gore the centerpiece of their offense, but that would only help a rookie like Kaepernick. Chances are, he’s starting by Week 8 (San Fran has a bye on Week 7), and can provide some solid fantasy league points as a duel threat quarterback.
Running Back – DeMarco Murray: The Dallas Cowboys have had a tendency over the past couple of years to utilize all three running backs on their roster. This year, they got rid of Marion Barber III, and drafted DeMarco Murray in the third round. Murray is a perfect fit for what the Cowboys want to do on offense, as he can catch the ball and is a great runner. Also, he has a knack for finding the end zone, with 63 total touchdowns in his college career. Keep in mind that for all the fantasy love that Felix Jones is getting, he has scored eight touchdowns total in his NFL career. With Murray’s track record of being able to score in college, chances are that he gets a shot with the ball near the goal line. In fact, it could end up where Murray is starting over Jones at the end of the year, as there are questions about his durability. At any rate, Murray could prove quite valuable in fantasy leagues, especially in touchdown leagues.
Wide Receiver – Eric Decker: Here’s the deal with Decker – what else is there ahead of him on the depth chart? Brandon Lloyd put together a career year in his eighth season. Prior to that, he was an afterthought for fantasy league purposes. Can he really do it again? Eddie Royal had a strong rookie season, then fell off the map last year. Meanwhile, Decker was a first round talent that the Broncos got in the third round due to an injury he suffered in college. This essentially turned his rookie season to a redshirt year. Decker has been playing the Z receiver and in the slot with the starting unit all training camp. He has great hands, knows how to run precise routes, and is a big target in the red zone. Also, it helps that Kyle Orton is actually a much better quarterback than people seem to realize. As long as Orton does not get Tebowed this year again, someone in that offense can have a huge year catching the ball. Decker would be a good option, as would….
Tight End – Julius Thomas: Thomas is right now behind Daniel Fells on the Denver Broncos depth chart. However, is happens to be a much better receiver, and tight end in general, than Fells, despite having only played two years of organized football. Already nicknamed ‘Mr. Red Zone’ by his Broncos teammates, Thomas was a former basketball player for Portland State, whose size and leaping ability will translate to the pros. It may take a bit before he sees consistant action, but he has the potential to be a touchdown scoring machine when he finally sees the field. Remember this name for around the middle of the season, and be ready to snag his talents.
Kicker and Defense: Look, we’re not going to waste your time by trying to predict something as nebulous as a kicker and a defensive unit. To illustrate the insanity of that, keep the following in mind: Arizona, who was a terrible defense for all intents and purposes, finished third in standard scoring leagues for defense due to defensive touchdowns. Sebastian Janikowski was undrafted in most leagues, and led kickers in points. Trying to predict these positions makes as much sense as stapling Jell-O to the ceiling. However, there are a couple of things to look at when trying to make your selections for these positions.
For kickers, it is better to find a bad offense than a good one. While this sounds contradictory, given the nature of the position, here’s the reason – bad offenses do not score touchdowns. Chances are, most of their points will come off of field goals, which benefits the kicker in a fantasy league format. As such, you want an accurate kicker with a strong leg on a bad team. After all, how else would Janikowski be considered the top kicker in any respect, aside from being able to eat Twinkies and down six packs of beer?
Now for defenses. The best thing to look at with a defense is their pass rush. If a defense can get to the quarterback, that will disguise a number of deficencies in other areas. By putting pressure on the quarterback, passes will not be as accurate, allowing even a terrible secondary to make plays. Also, sacks can lead to fumbles and turnovers, as the strip sack has become rather vogue in the NFL at this point. Find a defense with a strong pass rush, and you will have yourself a solid fantasy league defense.
Hopefully these predictions help you all out later in the year. Remember, these are not players that should be drafted in any but the deepest leagues, yet you should keep them in the back of your mind for mid season pickups.
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