Last year, Jeremy Hellickson won the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year Award, winning 13 games with a 2.95 ERA. At only 25, and pitching for a team that has a knack for developing pitchers as the Rays do, it would appear that his potential is limitless. But how good is Hellickson really going to be?
In 2011, he held opponents to a .210 batting average. This was built mainly upon an insanely low .223 average on balls in play. As the league average is approximately .300, Hellickson got very lucky last year. Yes, the Rays were the best fielding team in baseball least year, and should only get better now that Carlos Pena has returned, but can Hellickson really bank on that type of luck again? When looking back at the last twenty pitchers that held opponents to a batting average on balls in play of between .200 and .250, most of them had severe regression the following year. The ones that avoided this trend were Roger Clemens, Jamie Moyer, and Barry Zito. Zito actually improved his batting average on balls in play against, marking the last time he was relevant in anything other than punchlines for bad contracts.
Then there are Hellickson’s strike out and walk rates. After posting only two walks per nine innings and a strike out rate of 8.2 per nine innings in a brief trial in 2010, he walked 3.43 batters per nine last year. His strike out rate plummeted to 5.6 per nine innings. One thing Hellickson does have going for him in terms of future strike out improvement is a solid difference between his fastball and offspeed pitches – his fastball averaged 90.9 MPH last season, his curve and change were at 75.5 and 79.9 MPH respectively. However, that is an average fastball that he throws, meaning that he will need to rely more on control than the ability to throw the baseball past the opposition. Unless he cuts down on his walk rate, he will be in even more trouble next year.
According to the always entertaining comparison chart on baseballreference.com, the following ten pitchers compare to Hellickson’s age 24 season: Doc Medich, Rich Gale, Pedro Astacio, Joey Hamilton, George Meakim, Bob Buhl, Mike Dunne, Steve Gromek, Rip Collins, and Bobby Jones. Of those ten pitchers, only three of them (Buhl, Gromek, and Jones) had an All-Star Game appearance. Even then, it was one selection each. Most of those pitchers did not even win 100 games in their career, as they were unable to sustain the luck they had in their rookie seasons going forward.
Hellickson, however, has several factors in his favor. First, Tropicana Field is one of the better pitcher’s parks in baseball. For every 100 runs scored at a neutral park, the Trop has averaged 90 over the past four years. With the large foul territory and open bullpens, it’s a pitcher’s dream. Second, as mentioned previously, he has a great defense behind him. The Rays were the best in baseball in almost every defensive metric last season, and will only get better now that Pena is back. And third, while it is a small sample size, Hellickson does not give up a lot of hard hit balls. Those weak pop ups and ground balls will help keep his ERA down, and make him look a lot better than he is.
As it stands, Hellickson appears destined for a 12 to 15 win, 4.00 ERA season. While it is a solid year, especially for a pitcher that is going to be the fourth or fifth starter, it is not ace material. Hellickson should have a decent career as a middle of the rotation starter, but do not expect much more than that.
Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts
Monday, March 26, 2012
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Minnesota Twins 2012 Season Preview
Going in to 2011, the Minnesota Twins appeared ready to do what they have always done – compete for the AL Central title despite never quite appearing good enough on paper. Well, last year the wheels fell off, as the pitching was terrible and Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Denard Span were all hurt. By the end of the year, the Twins may as well have had a AAAA roster, and it showed in the results.
For the Twins to be better in 2012, the rotation needs to pitch better. One would think that, since they gave up the second most runs in the American League, that they would be better by default, right? Wrong. When 2/5 of your rotation consists of batting practice pitchers such as Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis, you’re going to get pounded like a nerd with lunch money. While Francisco Liriano pitched a no hitter last year, it may have actually been the worst no hitter in the history of baseball. It also came against the White Sox, who couldn’t have hit the broad side of a barn last year. The Twins need him to pitch like he did in 2010, not like the imposter that was wearing his jersey in 2011. Carl Pavano makes starts, and is able to get through innings. That’s about it. On almost any other team in baseball, he’s a fifth starter. In Minnesota? Pavano is the second starter, which should tell you everything that needs to be known about this atrocity of a pitching staff. Scott Baker, if he can stay healthy, is actually a decent starter who had a 4-1 K/BB rate last year. Unfortunately, he also got hammered by the injury bug. If he can stay healthy, the Twins may be able to win 60 games. If not, there may not be a limit to how far they can sink.
As bad as the rotation is, and it’s God-Awful, the bullpen may be worse. Matt Capps is a mediocre closer at best, but at least he only cost them Wilson Ramos *sarcasm*. Glen Perkins was handed a three year deal to be the setup man, instead of the Twins using that money to actually, you know, help their team in any truly useful fashion. Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak was moved from the rotation to the bullpen, which speaks volumes about their effectiveness. The rest of the bullpen may as well be pitching machines or people from the stands, since they would probably be just as effective.
In the outfield, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer departed in free agency. The Twins replaced them with Ben Revere, who is a future leadoff candidate with solid speed and defense, but limited upside; and Josh Willingham. Willingham also has a history of injury problems, and really may be better as a fourth outfielder or DH. Denard Span is expected to be healthy, and will be desperately needed on a team that is going to need to manufacture runs. Expect to see a lot of Rene Tosoni this year, which is good news for his relatives and no one else.
Around the infield, it doesn’t get much better either. Danny Valencia hit 15 home runs last year, and got on base at a .294 clip. The Twins thought about sending him back to the minors last year, and may end up doing so this year. Jamey Carroll is a decent utility infielder, but is going to be the Twins starting shortstop. This is because Alexi Casilla is going to be the everyday second baseman, if he can stay healthy (notice a trend?) Casilla can run, and that’s about it. He ends up at second base because Tsuyoshi Nishioka may have been a bigger disappointment than WaterWorld. Some combination of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer will play first base, if either are healthy. Morneau is still battling concussion symptoms from 2010, and may never get back to form.
At catcher are the aforementioned Mauer and Ryan Doumit. Doumit is expected to be the Twins DH, which should keep him from having as many trips to the DL as he typically has. This means that Drew Butera gets mentioned in this post. Do not expect analysis of Drew Butera. We are not wasting out time. Mauer may never hit 28 home runs again, but he is still one of the best catchers in baseball. If he’s healthy, he may be the only reason to watch a Twins game.
The Twins will be one of the teams ‘competing’ for the worst record in baseball this season. The worst part is, they do not have any real prospects that are close to making an impact, or veterans that could bring something back in trade. The Twins will be awful, and will be for a while.
For the Twins to be better in 2012, the rotation needs to pitch better. One would think that, since they gave up the second most runs in the American League, that they would be better by default, right? Wrong. When 2/5 of your rotation consists of batting practice pitchers such as Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis, you’re going to get pounded like a nerd with lunch money. While Francisco Liriano pitched a no hitter last year, it may have actually been the worst no hitter in the history of baseball. It also came against the White Sox, who couldn’t have hit the broad side of a barn last year. The Twins need him to pitch like he did in 2010, not like the imposter that was wearing his jersey in 2011. Carl Pavano makes starts, and is able to get through innings. That’s about it. On almost any other team in baseball, he’s a fifth starter. In Minnesota? Pavano is the second starter, which should tell you everything that needs to be known about this atrocity of a pitching staff. Scott Baker, if he can stay healthy, is actually a decent starter who had a 4-1 K/BB rate last year. Unfortunately, he also got hammered by the injury bug. If he can stay healthy, the Twins may be able to win 60 games. If not, there may not be a limit to how far they can sink.
As bad as the rotation is, and it’s God-Awful, the bullpen may be worse. Matt Capps is a mediocre closer at best, but at least he only cost them Wilson Ramos *sarcasm*. Glen Perkins was handed a three year deal to be the setup man, instead of the Twins using that money to actually, you know, help their team in any truly useful fashion. Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak was moved from the rotation to the bullpen, which speaks volumes about their effectiveness. The rest of the bullpen may as well be pitching machines or people from the stands, since they would probably be just as effective.
In the outfield, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer departed in free agency. The Twins replaced them with Ben Revere, who is a future leadoff candidate with solid speed and defense, but limited upside; and Josh Willingham. Willingham also has a history of injury problems, and really may be better as a fourth outfielder or DH. Denard Span is expected to be healthy, and will be desperately needed on a team that is going to need to manufacture runs. Expect to see a lot of Rene Tosoni this year, which is good news for his relatives and no one else.
Around the infield, it doesn’t get much better either. Danny Valencia hit 15 home runs last year, and got on base at a .294 clip. The Twins thought about sending him back to the minors last year, and may end up doing so this year. Jamey Carroll is a decent utility infielder, but is going to be the Twins starting shortstop. This is because Alexi Casilla is going to be the everyday second baseman, if he can stay healthy (notice a trend?) Casilla can run, and that’s about it. He ends up at second base because Tsuyoshi Nishioka may have been a bigger disappointment than WaterWorld. Some combination of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer will play first base, if either are healthy. Morneau is still battling concussion symptoms from 2010, and may never get back to form.
At catcher are the aforementioned Mauer and Ryan Doumit. Doumit is expected to be the Twins DH, which should keep him from having as many trips to the DL as he typically has. This means that Drew Butera gets mentioned in this post. Do not expect analysis of Drew Butera. We are not wasting out time. Mauer may never hit 28 home runs again, but he is still one of the best catchers in baseball. If he’s healthy, he may be the only reason to watch a Twins game.
The Twins will be one of the teams ‘competing’ for the worst record in baseball this season. The worst part is, they do not have any real prospects that are close to making an impact, or veterans that could bring something back in trade. The Twins will be awful, and will be for a while.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Kansas City Royals 2012 Season Preview
According to Dayton Moore’s “Process”, the Kansas City Royals were going to have their prospects up in 2011 and 2012, have them learn how to be major league players, and try to contend for 2013. Well, a strange thing happened along the way, as the Royals had one of the better offenses in baseball in 2011. While the starting rotation needs to show dramatic improvement for the Royals to contend for a playoff spot this season, maybe it’s not as far away as once thought. In fact, the Royals have become a trendy sleeper pick for several outlets, especially since the second Wild Card has been added.
For the Royals to take the next step, they need one or two of their starters to dramatically improve. Luke Hochevar is the de facto number one starter, but he is far from an ace. In fact, the Royals not only do not have a true number one starter, but they also do not have a pitcher that could be a number two starter on a good team either. Hochevar did show signs of improvement in the second half of last year, however; as his K/9 went from 4.38 to just under 9. If he can keep that improvement in 2012, then he may just be ready. Jonathan Sanchez was acquired from the San Francisco Giants for Melky Cabrera’s career year. Sanchez strikes out a lot of hitters, but walks a lot as well. He also has some health concerns. If he could improve his control, then he could be another solid starter, but at 29, he is what he is at this point. Bruce Chen has gone from journeyman bust to a Panamanian-Korean version of Jamie Moyer. While he is not going to make a lot of people miss, he has been surprisingly effective. Felipe Paulino was picked up after being released by the Colorado Rockies, and immediately become a fairly good starter. Ignore his won-loss record and total and aggrigate ERA – he has a lot of upside and may end up being the Royals best starter this year. The fifth spot in the rotation will be taken by either Aaron Crow or Danny Duffy. Crow has two solid pitches, and desperately needs a third pitch to be an effective starter. However, his fastball-slider combo were great out of the bullpen, where he was an All-Star last year. That would leave Duffy, who looked like a younger version of Jonathan Sanchez.
The bullpen, however, is a strength for the Royals. Joakim Soria had an off year last year, partially due to injury and partially due to experimenting with a cutter in the first half. Once he scrapped the cutter, he went back to looking like the Soria of years past. Jonathan Broxton was picked up on a one year deal as a safety net if Soria either gets hurt again, or is traded. Little Timmy Collins is the primary lefty reliever, and wore down last year from overuse. Greg Holland was the Royals best reliever last year, and may end up being the closer of the future if Crow can stick in the rotation.
In the outfield, the Royals have Alex Gordon in left, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Jeff Francoeur in right. Gordon finally tapped into his limitless potential, becoming a Gold Glove outfielder and a legitimate offensive threat. Cain’s defense and speed made Melky Cabrera expendable, and he may end up taking the leadoff spot from Gordon. Francoeur had a surprisingly good season, as he finished with 20 home runs, and over 20 stolen bases. He is another solid defensive player, and furthers the Royals desire to be a run prevention team. Mitch Maier is the fourth outfielder, and can play all three positions.
Last year, the Royals had the youngest infield in baseball by the end of the year. Third baseman Mike Moustakas struggled initially in the majors, but began to hit as the season progressed. This was well in line with his minor league track record, where he needed 150 to 200 at bats to get acclimated to the talent level, then began to hit. Look for Moustakas to have a good year in 2012. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is a great defensive player, but provides little to nothing offensively. Despite that, he is extremely valuable, given his ability to take away hits and runs. Johnny Giavotella is expected to be the Opening Day second baseman, and will be better than what the Royals had there last season by default. His presence banishes Chris Getz either to the bench or to AAA. Eric Hosmer will also get a full season at first base, and is looking to build off of an impressive rookie season. Hosmer has also added an element of speed to his game over the last couple of seasons. Yuniesky Betancourt returns as a theoretical utility infielder, even though he couldn’t catch the ball if it was placed directly in front of him, and may actually be the worst player in baseball. But, it would not be the Royals if they did not make at least one head scratching move per offseason.
Salvador Perez turned a solid 148 at bat debut into a five year extension, and is locked up as the catcher of the present and future. While he swings at literally everything, he also has a surprisingly good contact rate. He is also a solid defensive catcher with a plus arm, so the Royals may have a steal with their investment. Brayan Pena is the backup catcher, and is essentially a body that can give Perez the occassional day off. Billy Butler is entrenched at the designated hitter spot, and while he may never hit a lot of home runs, is a lock for 40+ doubles and a solid batting average. All in all, the offense was good last year, and may be even better this year.
For the Royals to have a chance this year, they need their run prevention plan to work as well as they can possibly dream of. A step forward by either Hochevar or Paulino will help, but they are more likely to contend in 2013 than in 2012.
For the Royals to take the next step, they need one or two of their starters to dramatically improve. Luke Hochevar is the de facto number one starter, but he is far from an ace. In fact, the Royals not only do not have a true number one starter, but they also do not have a pitcher that could be a number two starter on a good team either. Hochevar did show signs of improvement in the second half of last year, however; as his K/9 went from 4.38 to just under 9. If he can keep that improvement in 2012, then he may just be ready. Jonathan Sanchez was acquired from the San Francisco Giants for Melky Cabrera’s career year. Sanchez strikes out a lot of hitters, but walks a lot as well. He also has some health concerns. If he could improve his control, then he could be another solid starter, but at 29, he is what he is at this point. Bruce Chen has gone from journeyman bust to a Panamanian-Korean version of Jamie Moyer. While he is not going to make a lot of people miss, he has been surprisingly effective. Felipe Paulino was picked up after being released by the Colorado Rockies, and immediately become a fairly good starter. Ignore his won-loss record and total and aggrigate ERA – he has a lot of upside and may end up being the Royals best starter this year. The fifth spot in the rotation will be taken by either Aaron Crow or Danny Duffy. Crow has two solid pitches, and desperately needs a third pitch to be an effective starter. However, his fastball-slider combo were great out of the bullpen, where he was an All-Star last year. That would leave Duffy, who looked like a younger version of Jonathan Sanchez.
The bullpen, however, is a strength for the Royals. Joakim Soria had an off year last year, partially due to injury and partially due to experimenting with a cutter in the first half. Once he scrapped the cutter, he went back to looking like the Soria of years past. Jonathan Broxton was picked up on a one year deal as a safety net if Soria either gets hurt again, or is traded. Little Timmy Collins is the primary lefty reliever, and wore down last year from overuse. Greg Holland was the Royals best reliever last year, and may end up being the closer of the future if Crow can stick in the rotation.
In the outfield, the Royals have Alex Gordon in left, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Jeff Francoeur in right. Gordon finally tapped into his limitless potential, becoming a Gold Glove outfielder and a legitimate offensive threat. Cain’s defense and speed made Melky Cabrera expendable, and he may end up taking the leadoff spot from Gordon. Francoeur had a surprisingly good season, as he finished with 20 home runs, and over 20 stolen bases. He is another solid defensive player, and furthers the Royals desire to be a run prevention team. Mitch Maier is the fourth outfielder, and can play all three positions.
Last year, the Royals had the youngest infield in baseball by the end of the year. Third baseman Mike Moustakas struggled initially in the majors, but began to hit as the season progressed. This was well in line with his minor league track record, where he needed 150 to 200 at bats to get acclimated to the talent level, then began to hit. Look for Moustakas to have a good year in 2012. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is a great defensive player, but provides little to nothing offensively. Despite that, he is extremely valuable, given his ability to take away hits and runs. Johnny Giavotella is expected to be the Opening Day second baseman, and will be better than what the Royals had there last season by default. His presence banishes Chris Getz either to the bench or to AAA. Eric Hosmer will also get a full season at first base, and is looking to build off of an impressive rookie season. Hosmer has also added an element of speed to his game over the last couple of seasons. Yuniesky Betancourt returns as a theoretical utility infielder, even though he couldn’t catch the ball if it was placed directly in front of him, and may actually be the worst player in baseball. But, it would not be the Royals if they did not make at least one head scratching move per offseason.
Salvador Perez turned a solid 148 at bat debut into a five year extension, and is locked up as the catcher of the present and future. While he swings at literally everything, he also has a surprisingly good contact rate. He is also a solid defensive catcher with a plus arm, so the Royals may have a steal with their investment. Brayan Pena is the backup catcher, and is essentially a body that can give Perez the occassional day off. Billy Butler is entrenched at the designated hitter spot, and while he may never hit a lot of home runs, is a lock for 40+ doubles and a solid batting average. All in all, the offense was good last year, and may be even better this year.
For the Royals to have a chance this year, they need their run prevention plan to work as well as they can possibly dream of. A step forward by either Hochevar or Paulino will help, but they are more likely to contend in 2013 than in 2012.
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Detroit Tigers 2012 Season Preview
In 2011, the Detroit Tigers were easily the class of the American League Central, boasting a solid lineup, an absolute stud ace pitcher, and a good bullpen. This year, they have improved the lineup, and bring back the same rotation. But will the Tigers be better?
For all the buzz centered around Justin Verlander, the rest of the rotation is pretty good. Verlander, who is not only the reigning Cy Young Award winner, but also the reigning MVP, is perhaps the best starting pitcher in the game. On his own, he automatically gives the Tigers a chance to win every game he pitches. Max Scherzer has shown flashes of greatness, and has started to be more consistant in each outing. Doug Fister is a very underrated pitcher, and solidified the rotation when he came over in the midseason trade from Seattle. Rick Porcello was decent at times last year, and will regress this season (more on that in a bit). Jacob Turner is likely to win the fifth starter position, and by default will be an upgrade over the corpse of Brad Penny. But will the pitching actually look as good as they really are? Scherzer, Porcello, and Fister are all groundball pitchers, and the Tigers defense around the infield has the mobility of Christopher Reeve. They will give up a lot more runs than last year, but may actually pitch better.
The bullpen suffered a big loss with the Al Alburquerque injury, but Octovio Dotel will help to minimize the damage. Jose Valverde was a perfect 49-49 in save attempts last season, but shows some signs of wear, as his K/9 has steadily decreased over the past four seasons. Phil Coke has been moved back to the bullpen after the Tigers attempt to turn him into a starter. Coke is a dominant lefty reliever, and will help bridge the gap to Valverde. Joaquin Benoit is a solid setup man, and will hold down the eighth inning.
The outfield consists of Andy Dirks in right field, Austin Jackson in center, and Brennan Boesch in left. Boesch missed roughly a third of the season with a thumb injury, but had been improved in his second season. Jackson has a lot of speed, but is not great at tracking down fly balls. He also has a tendency to strike out a lot for a leadoff hitter, which truly limits his effectiveness. Dirks is expected to be the starting right fielder, but is far from a sure thing to start the season with the Tigers. He tore up the Dominican winter league, and is looking to use that as a springboard to success in Detroit. If he falters, Delmon Young will step in. Ryan Raburn, slated to the be starting second baseman, can also play in the outfield if needed.
With the Tigers infield, we can safely say two things – they will hit well, and they will not catch the ball whatsoever. Miguel Cabrera moves over the third base after having not played there since 2008, when it took 14 games for Jim Leyland to decide that there were not enough cigarettes in Detroit for him to deal with Cabrera’s lack of defense. Yes, Cabrera may be one of the two best hitters in the game, but he is a much better first baseman than third baseman. Next to him is Jhonny Peralta, he whose parental units did not have spell check. Peralta can hit, but is an absolute butcher in the field. Ryan Raburn is a converted outfielder who is playing second base, and is actually the best defensive player starting in the Tigers infield. With a full season of plate appearances, he could have a breakout year. Prince Fielder signed a huge contract after Victor Martinez was lost for the season, and will take over for Cabrera at first. He provides another 40+ home run bat, but is a major defensive liability. Brandon Inge, upset after being sent to the bench after hitting less than .200 last year, will still see a lot of playing time as a defensive replacement. Yes, the offense will be better, but the pitching staff will have nightmares of double play grounders becoming hits.
Alex Avila broke out in a big way last season as the Tigers starting catcher. He was helped by a .366 batting average on balls in play, which points to regression this year. On the positive side, he did display a solid batting eye and the ability to take a walk. He will also be the main starting catcher even if he struggles, as backup Gerald Laird is useless with a bat. Delmon Young is slated to be the designated hitter, but that may change if either Boesch or Dirks struggle in the outfield. If that happens, either Fielder or Cabrera wil likely become the DH, with Inge moving into the starting lineup.
On paper, the Tigers are better than they were last season. While they will likely win the AL Central , they may not be as good a team. the lack of infield defense will keep them from winning a World Series.
For all the buzz centered around Justin Verlander, the rest of the rotation is pretty good. Verlander, who is not only the reigning Cy Young Award winner, but also the reigning MVP, is perhaps the best starting pitcher in the game. On his own, he automatically gives the Tigers a chance to win every game he pitches. Max Scherzer has shown flashes of greatness, and has started to be more consistant in each outing. Doug Fister is a very underrated pitcher, and solidified the rotation when he came over in the midseason trade from Seattle. Rick Porcello was decent at times last year, and will regress this season (more on that in a bit). Jacob Turner is likely to win the fifth starter position, and by default will be an upgrade over the corpse of Brad Penny. But will the pitching actually look as good as they really are? Scherzer, Porcello, and Fister are all groundball pitchers, and the Tigers defense around the infield has the mobility of Christopher Reeve. They will give up a lot more runs than last year, but may actually pitch better.
The bullpen suffered a big loss with the Al Alburquerque injury, but Octovio Dotel will help to minimize the damage. Jose Valverde was a perfect 49-49 in save attempts last season, but shows some signs of wear, as his K/9 has steadily decreased over the past four seasons. Phil Coke has been moved back to the bullpen after the Tigers attempt to turn him into a starter. Coke is a dominant lefty reliever, and will help bridge the gap to Valverde. Joaquin Benoit is a solid setup man, and will hold down the eighth inning.
The outfield consists of Andy Dirks in right field, Austin Jackson in center, and Brennan Boesch in left. Boesch missed roughly a third of the season with a thumb injury, but had been improved in his second season. Jackson has a lot of speed, but is not great at tracking down fly balls. He also has a tendency to strike out a lot for a leadoff hitter, which truly limits his effectiveness. Dirks is expected to be the starting right fielder, but is far from a sure thing to start the season with the Tigers. He tore up the Dominican winter league, and is looking to use that as a springboard to success in Detroit. If he falters, Delmon Young will step in. Ryan Raburn, slated to the be starting second baseman, can also play in the outfield if needed.
With the Tigers infield, we can safely say two things – they will hit well, and they will not catch the ball whatsoever. Miguel Cabrera moves over the third base after having not played there since 2008, when it took 14 games for Jim Leyland to decide that there were not enough cigarettes in Detroit for him to deal with Cabrera’s lack of defense. Yes, Cabrera may be one of the two best hitters in the game, but he is a much better first baseman than third baseman. Next to him is Jhonny Peralta, he whose parental units did not have spell check. Peralta can hit, but is an absolute butcher in the field. Ryan Raburn is a converted outfielder who is playing second base, and is actually the best defensive player starting in the Tigers infield. With a full season of plate appearances, he could have a breakout year. Prince Fielder signed a huge contract after Victor Martinez was lost for the season, and will take over for Cabrera at first. He provides another 40+ home run bat, but is a major defensive liability. Brandon Inge, upset after being sent to the bench after hitting less than .200 last year, will still see a lot of playing time as a defensive replacement. Yes, the offense will be better, but the pitching staff will have nightmares of double play grounders becoming hits.
Alex Avila broke out in a big way last season as the Tigers starting catcher. He was helped by a .366 batting average on balls in play, which points to regression this year. On the positive side, he did display a solid batting eye and the ability to take a walk. He will also be the main starting catcher even if he struggles, as backup Gerald Laird is useless with a bat. Delmon Young is slated to be the designated hitter, but that may change if either Boesch or Dirks struggle in the outfield. If that happens, either Fielder or Cabrera wil likely become the DH, with Inge moving into the starting lineup.
On paper, the Tigers are better than they were last season. While they will likely win the AL Central , they may not be as good a team. the lack of infield defense will keep them from winning a World Series.
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Cleveland Indians 2012 Season Preview
At the beginning of 2011, the Cleveland Indians were essentially an afterthought when it came to teams that could content. Then the season started, and the Indians found themselves surprisingly competitive. They made moves at the trade deadline, such as acquiring Ubaldo Jimenez. While the acquisitions did not work for 2011, and the Indians found themselves under .500 yet again, they have at least given notice that they are no longer the pushovers they had been for the past few seasons.
Cleveland’s starting rotation is filled with ground ball pitchers, so the infield defense is going to be vitally important. Fronting the rotation is the aforementioned Ubaldo Jimenez, who endured the worst season of his career. While his peripheral numbers were similar to what they had always been, he lost a couple of miles per hour from his fastball. If he can regain the lost velocity, he gives the Indians a very good ace. Otherwise, he becomes a good pitcher who will provide solid innings. Justin Masterson had a breakout season, as he shaved nearly a run and a half from his ERA. His walk rate drastically improved, and he appears to finally be tapping into this potential. Veteran Derek Lowe was brought over as the third starter. Despite his age, he still induces plenty of ground balls, and fits well into their rotation. Josh Tomlin may not be able to dent a piece of bread with his fastball, but he is a surprisingly effective starter. Kevin Slowey is the best bet to round out the rotation, as he looks to bounce back from an ineffective and injury plagued season.
The ‘Bullpen Mafia’ may actually be the best relief corps in baseball. Chris Perez returns as the closer, but may actually be one of the Indians worst relief pitchers. Even though he is expected to be back from his injury by Opening Day, there is no guarantee that he holds the spot all year. Vinnie Pestano, the pitcher most likely to take over from Perez, may be one of the top three set-up men in baseball. Last season, he held right handed batters to a .118 batting average. Joe Smith and Rafael Perez are both ground ball specialists, and are excellent specialists. This is an extremely deep group, and will not cost the Indians many games over the season.
The outfield is slated to have Michael Brantley in left, Grady Sizemore in center, and Shin-Soo Choo in right. Any idea of expecting production, health, or Sizemore missing fewer than 100 games is pure insanity at this point. Expect Brantley to end up in center. He provides solid defense and good speed, but also has issues staying healthy. Choo had an abysmal year las tseason, and needs to have a bounce back campaign for the Indians to take the next step forward in their quest to contend. Aaron Cunningham, a castoff from the San Deigo Padres, or Shelley Duncan, will likely see a lot of action this season.
Around the infield, the Indians have a nice blend of veterans and youngsters. Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis will be starters for an entire season in 2012, and both are intriguing prospects. Chisenhall may never reach the gaudy numbers that he was thought to early in his minor league career, but he looks like he may be another Travis Fryman-type player. .280 with 25 home runs and solid defense would not be a surprise. Kipnis, meanwhile, may be an absolute stud. He was overlooked by most people due to Dustin Ackley being in the minors at the same time, but Kipnis was just as good. Asdrubal Cabrera put together a monster year in 2011, and will be hitting in the middle of the lineup once again. Expect some regression, but he will have another solid year. Casey Kotchman provides excellent defense, and a decent bat, at first base. Power has never really been his thing, but he will hit enough to stay in the lineup. If either Chisenhall or Kotchman falter, defensive whiz Jack Hannahan is waiting in the wings.
At catcher is Carlos Santana, who happens to be one of the best in the game. His batting average was low, but he still got on base, hit for power, and was versatile in the field. Backup Lou Marson will see more time than the typical backup catcher, since Santana plays a lot of first base as well to take some wear and tear off his knees. Travis Hafner returns as the DH, but like Sizemore, can he be expected to remain healthy all season? If he can, Hafner provides another power bat to what is a solid lineup.
If the Indians can remain healthy, and that is a big if, they could have a shot at winning the AL Central. At the very least, they will be in contention for one of the wild card slots in the American League.
Cleveland’s starting rotation is filled with ground ball pitchers, so the infield defense is going to be vitally important. Fronting the rotation is the aforementioned Ubaldo Jimenez, who endured the worst season of his career. While his peripheral numbers were similar to what they had always been, he lost a couple of miles per hour from his fastball. If he can regain the lost velocity, he gives the Indians a very good ace. Otherwise, he becomes a good pitcher who will provide solid innings. Justin Masterson had a breakout season, as he shaved nearly a run and a half from his ERA. His walk rate drastically improved, and he appears to finally be tapping into this potential. Veteran Derek Lowe was brought over as the third starter. Despite his age, he still induces plenty of ground balls, and fits well into their rotation. Josh Tomlin may not be able to dent a piece of bread with his fastball, but he is a surprisingly effective starter. Kevin Slowey is the best bet to round out the rotation, as he looks to bounce back from an ineffective and injury plagued season.
The ‘Bullpen Mafia’ may actually be the best relief corps in baseball. Chris Perez returns as the closer, but may actually be one of the Indians worst relief pitchers. Even though he is expected to be back from his injury by Opening Day, there is no guarantee that he holds the spot all year. Vinnie Pestano, the pitcher most likely to take over from Perez, may be one of the top three set-up men in baseball. Last season, he held right handed batters to a .118 batting average. Joe Smith and Rafael Perez are both ground ball specialists, and are excellent specialists. This is an extremely deep group, and will not cost the Indians many games over the season.
The outfield is slated to have Michael Brantley in left, Grady Sizemore in center, and Shin-Soo Choo in right. Any idea of expecting production, health, or Sizemore missing fewer than 100 games is pure insanity at this point. Expect Brantley to end up in center. He provides solid defense and good speed, but also has issues staying healthy. Choo had an abysmal year las tseason, and needs to have a bounce back campaign for the Indians to take the next step forward in their quest to contend. Aaron Cunningham, a castoff from the San Deigo Padres, or Shelley Duncan, will likely see a lot of action this season.
Around the infield, the Indians have a nice blend of veterans and youngsters. Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis will be starters for an entire season in 2012, and both are intriguing prospects. Chisenhall may never reach the gaudy numbers that he was thought to early in his minor league career, but he looks like he may be another Travis Fryman-type player. .280 with 25 home runs and solid defense would not be a surprise. Kipnis, meanwhile, may be an absolute stud. He was overlooked by most people due to Dustin Ackley being in the minors at the same time, but Kipnis was just as good. Asdrubal Cabrera put together a monster year in 2011, and will be hitting in the middle of the lineup once again. Expect some regression, but he will have another solid year. Casey Kotchman provides excellent defense, and a decent bat, at first base. Power has never really been his thing, but he will hit enough to stay in the lineup. If either Chisenhall or Kotchman falter, defensive whiz Jack Hannahan is waiting in the wings.
At catcher is Carlos Santana, who happens to be one of the best in the game. His batting average was low, but he still got on base, hit for power, and was versatile in the field. Backup Lou Marson will see more time than the typical backup catcher, since Santana plays a lot of first base as well to take some wear and tear off his knees. Travis Hafner returns as the DH, but like Sizemore, can he be expected to remain healthy all season? If he can, Hafner provides another power bat to what is a solid lineup.
If the Indians can remain healthy, and that is a big if, they could have a shot at winning the AL Central. At the very least, they will be in contention for one of the wild card slots in the American League.
Friday, March 2, 2012
Chicago White Sox 2012 Season Preview
At this time in 2011, the Chicago White Sox looked like a legitimate contender to make the playoffs. They had added a consistantly solid bat in Adam Dunn for the middle of their lineup, had a great manager in Ozzie Guillen, and only had the Detroit Tigers as a team to contend against. Fast forward one year, and the White Sox are a train wreck. Guillen is gone, replaced with a rookie manager. General Manager Kenny Williams is making moves without seeming to have a plan. This is going to be a brutal season for the entire city of Chicago (more on that when we mock preview the Cubs), but especially for the White Sox.
The starting pitching on the White Sox could have anywhere from one to four decent pitchers. Gavin Floyd returns as the defacto ace of the rotation, but is badly miscast in that role. While he has provided solid strikeout to walk ratios and a decent WHiP since he has been given a full-time role, he has also had only one season with an ERA under 4.00. Likewise, John Danks does not strike out a lot of hitters, and gives up a decent amount of baserunners. Both slot better as a third starter. Jake Peavy continues to hunt for the elusive healthy season, and will probably be injured by the All-Star Break yet again. When healthy, he is one of the best in the game, but can he be counted on for more than 20 starts? Philip Humber pitched well last season, but does anyone really expect that to continue? Jason Simontacchi also had one good year, and how did his career go? Chris Sale actually could be the best of this group. He was lights out in the bullpen, and has the pitching repetoire and skills to succeed.
The bullpen could be a disaster. Matt Thornton proved that he cannot be a closer in the most empathic way possible, short of bring out a can of petrol to the mound and lighting himself on fire like a protester at the G8. However, when he was mercifully put back into the setup role, he pitched a lot better. Sergio Santos, last year’s closer, was traded for essentially nothing, so the closer role now falls upon hard throwing rookie Addison Reed. Reed struck out 12 batters in 7.1 innings last year, so he may have the makings of a Craig Kimbrel type of season (fantasy sleeper alert!) Jesse Crain returns to the bullpen, and is a solid piece for the seventh and eighth innings. However, any thought of him opening the season as the closer while easing Reed into the role is pure insanity. Will Ohman is pegged as the lefty specialist, but he really isn’t that good. The bullpen will be a lot worse than last year.
In the outfield, the White Sox will likely have Alejandro De Aza in left, Alex Rios in center, and Dayan Viciedo in right. There are enough question marks with the outfield, that they may as well wear Riddler costumes. Can De Aza, a 27 year old career minor leaguer, hit like he did in his 57 game trial over the final two months of the season? Can Alex Rios not be one of the worst players in baseball? Can Dayan Viciedo be a decent enough glove in right field where he does not evoke memories of Jose Canseco trying to field a ball? Chances are, two of these questions will be answered with ‘NO!’ Of the three, Viciedo has the best chance to be a solid contributor the entire season. Alex Rios did pull his astonishing disappearing act in 2009 as well, when he moped his way out of Toronto. De Aza screams fluke with his .404 BABiP last year. This group could be fairly bad.
Yet, as awful as the outfield could be, the infield may be even worse. Third baseman Brett Morel was atrocious until he went on a late season tear. Can he use that burst in September as a springboard for 2012? Unlikely, but there is a glimmer of hope, albeit a rather faint one. Alexei Ramirez is what he is, a 15 home run, 15 stolen base shortstop who plays solid defense and does not really do any one thing well. However, he may be the best bat in this lineup by default. One time mega-prospect Gordon Beckham has gotten progressively worse since his rookie season, and may actually be just a bench player. Paul Konerko continued to roll along, but is 36. How long will his body hold up?
Furthering what may be one of the worst lineups this side of the American League West, Adam Dunn managed to put up what may have been the worst season in major league history. Congratulations Bill Bergen, you are no longer the biggest embarrassment to be an every day player. The surprising part of Dunn’s collapse was how remarkably consistant he was for the ten years prior to that. Was this just a fluke season, or is Dunn….well….done? Chances are that he bounces back, but it really won’t be difficult to have a better season. At catcher is A.J. Pierzynski, a player who has played at backup level (check his WAR) over most of his career, yet still somehow finds a way to get over 400 at bats per season. Backup Tyler Flowers is another former top prospect whose stock has fallen dramatically (notice a trend here?) but he does have some power potential. If he can hit to start the year, he may finally end Pierzynski’s reign of terror at the catcher position.
In the end, the White Sox will be terrible this season. They have a rookie manager, no direction, a barren minor league system, and no hope. They will struggle to not finish in the basement of the American League Central.
The starting pitching on the White Sox could have anywhere from one to four decent pitchers. Gavin Floyd returns as the defacto ace of the rotation, but is badly miscast in that role. While he has provided solid strikeout to walk ratios and a decent WHiP since he has been given a full-time role, he has also had only one season with an ERA under 4.00. Likewise, John Danks does not strike out a lot of hitters, and gives up a decent amount of baserunners. Both slot better as a third starter. Jake Peavy continues to hunt for the elusive healthy season, and will probably be injured by the All-Star Break yet again. When healthy, he is one of the best in the game, but can he be counted on for more than 20 starts? Philip Humber pitched well last season, but does anyone really expect that to continue? Jason Simontacchi also had one good year, and how did his career go? Chris Sale actually could be the best of this group. He was lights out in the bullpen, and has the pitching repetoire and skills to succeed.
The bullpen could be a disaster. Matt Thornton proved that he cannot be a closer in the most empathic way possible, short of bring out a can of petrol to the mound and lighting himself on fire like a protester at the G8. However, when he was mercifully put back into the setup role, he pitched a lot better. Sergio Santos, last year’s closer, was traded for essentially nothing, so the closer role now falls upon hard throwing rookie Addison Reed. Reed struck out 12 batters in 7.1 innings last year, so he may have the makings of a Craig Kimbrel type of season (fantasy sleeper alert!) Jesse Crain returns to the bullpen, and is a solid piece for the seventh and eighth innings. However, any thought of him opening the season as the closer while easing Reed into the role is pure insanity. Will Ohman is pegged as the lefty specialist, but he really isn’t that good. The bullpen will be a lot worse than last year.
In the outfield, the White Sox will likely have Alejandro De Aza in left, Alex Rios in center, and Dayan Viciedo in right. There are enough question marks with the outfield, that they may as well wear Riddler costumes. Can De Aza, a 27 year old career minor leaguer, hit like he did in his 57 game trial over the final two months of the season? Can Alex Rios not be one of the worst players in baseball? Can Dayan Viciedo be a decent enough glove in right field where he does not evoke memories of Jose Canseco trying to field a ball? Chances are, two of these questions will be answered with ‘NO!’ Of the three, Viciedo has the best chance to be a solid contributor the entire season. Alex Rios did pull his astonishing disappearing act in 2009 as well, when he moped his way out of Toronto. De Aza screams fluke with his .404 BABiP last year. This group could be fairly bad.
Yet, as awful as the outfield could be, the infield may be even worse. Third baseman Brett Morel was atrocious until he went on a late season tear. Can he use that burst in September as a springboard for 2012? Unlikely, but there is a glimmer of hope, albeit a rather faint one. Alexei Ramirez is what he is, a 15 home run, 15 stolen base shortstop who plays solid defense and does not really do any one thing well. However, he may be the best bat in this lineup by default. One time mega-prospect Gordon Beckham has gotten progressively worse since his rookie season, and may actually be just a bench player. Paul Konerko continued to roll along, but is 36. How long will his body hold up?
Furthering what may be one of the worst lineups this side of the American League West, Adam Dunn managed to put up what may have been the worst season in major league history. Congratulations Bill Bergen, you are no longer the biggest embarrassment to be an every day player. The surprising part of Dunn’s collapse was how remarkably consistant he was for the ten years prior to that. Was this just a fluke season, or is Dunn….well….done? Chances are that he bounces back, but it really won’t be difficult to have a better season. At catcher is A.J. Pierzynski, a player who has played at backup level (check his WAR) over most of his career, yet still somehow finds a way to get over 400 at bats per season. Backup Tyler Flowers is another former top prospect whose stock has fallen dramatically (notice a trend here?) but he does have some power potential. If he can hit to start the year, he may finally end Pierzynski’s reign of terror at the catcher position.
In the end, the White Sox will be terrible this season. They have a rookie manager, no direction, a barren minor league system, and no hope. They will struggle to not finish in the basement of the American League Central.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Toronto Blue Jays 2012 Season Preview
Over the past twenty years, the Toronto Blue Jays have been fairly easy to predict. They have won between 80 and 89 games eleven times in that span, never winning 90 or more. They have won fewer than 70 games just once in that time frame, not counting the strike year. And they have finished fourth in the American League East each of the last four seasons. They have also been a team expected to finally break through over the last couple of season. Is 2012 finally when they break through?
The starting pitchers are a solid, if relatively anonymous, group. Ricky Romero took the next step in his development last season, dropping his ERA below 3.00 (2.92), cutting down his walk rate, and holding steady with strikeouts. He did lucky with his batting average against, but it had been low the previous year as well. Hitters just do not make solid contact against him. Brandon Morrow was inconsistent last season, but he did show some flashes. Also, he improved on his rates, cutting down his walks per nine innings, and actually leading the AL in strikeouts per nine. It is not inconceivable for him to take the next step as well this season. Henderson Alvarez appears to be a very good pitcher in the making. In his brief appearance last season, he had a K/BB ratio of 5:1. He also allowed just over a hit per inning (64 hits in 63.2 innings pitched). Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, and Kyle Drabek will vie for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Cecil is a solid back of the rotation starter. Drabek was a former top prospect, who still has plenty of time to have everything come together. McGowan had not been in the major leagues since 2008 before his brief cameo last season, and will attempt to be the Blue Jays version of Ryan Vogelsong.
The bullpen had several departures, but filled in those holes nicely. Sergio Santos is a low priced closer, who is under control for three more seasons. Darren Oliver and Francisco Cordero were signed as veteran help for an already solid group. Jason Frasor returned from the White Sox, and provides even more depth. The bullpen is a solid, deep group that will be an asset for the Blue Jays.
The outfield is a very solid group, with Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and Colby Rasmus. Bautista proved that 2010 was not a fluke, and is one of the best hitters in the game. He improved his walk rate, cut down on strikeouts, and led the American League in home runs for a second consecutive year. Rasmus, a former top prospect of the Cardinals who clashed with Tony LaRussa, should benefit from a new beginning, and may be able to finally tap into his potential. Snider was hurt for much of last season, but is a solid power hitter. Rajai Davis was brought over as the fourth outfielder, and can play all three outfield positions.
Around the infield, the Blue Jays have a lot of potential. Brett Lawrie will be the everyday third baseman, after exploding onto the scene in his major league debut. He has plenty of talent; the biggest question is whether or not he can keep himself together, as he developed a reputation as a head case in the minors. If he can, Lawrie has the chance to be a top notch third baseman for years to come. Yunel Escobar is a solid player at shortstop, providing decent power, a good batting eye, and solid defense. Kelly Johnson was acquired for Aaron Hill last season, and returns as the starting second baseman. He provides solid power, and good defense. While his batting average was terrible overall, he did hit .270 in 132 plate appearances after coming over to Toronto. He should return to form with a full season as a Blue Jay. Despite back to back mediocre seasons, Adam Lind remains at first base. He does have good power, on the rare occasions when he makes contact. His strikeout percentage did improve from 2010, but his overall statline is a far cry from 2009. This may be his final chance to prove that he can be an everyday player.
J.P. Arencibia provides great power from the catcher position, but not much else. He struck out in just over one out of every three at bats, and is mediocre at best defensively. Jeff Mathis was signed to be the late inning defensive replacement. In the minors, Travis d’Arnaud is waiting to take over should Arencibia not show any improvement. At DH, the Blue Jays have Edwin Encarnacion, who can also play third and first base if needed. While he is a butcher with the glove, he is another solid bat that the Jays can plug into their lineup.
All in all, it appears to be the same situation with the Blue Jays this year as it has been in years past. They would probably win most of the other divisions in baseball, but are stuck in the brutal AL East. Once the second wild card team is added, then they will have a better chance at the playoffs, but for now, they will remain on the outside looking in.
The starting pitchers are a solid, if relatively anonymous, group. Ricky Romero took the next step in his development last season, dropping his ERA below 3.00 (2.92), cutting down his walk rate, and holding steady with strikeouts. He did lucky with his batting average against, but it had been low the previous year as well. Hitters just do not make solid contact against him. Brandon Morrow was inconsistent last season, but he did show some flashes. Also, he improved on his rates, cutting down his walks per nine innings, and actually leading the AL in strikeouts per nine. It is not inconceivable for him to take the next step as well this season. Henderson Alvarez appears to be a very good pitcher in the making. In his brief appearance last season, he had a K/BB ratio of 5:1. He also allowed just over a hit per inning (64 hits in 63.2 innings pitched). Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, and Kyle Drabek will vie for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Cecil is a solid back of the rotation starter. Drabek was a former top prospect, who still has plenty of time to have everything come together. McGowan had not been in the major leagues since 2008 before his brief cameo last season, and will attempt to be the Blue Jays version of Ryan Vogelsong.
The bullpen had several departures, but filled in those holes nicely. Sergio Santos is a low priced closer, who is under control for three more seasons. Darren Oliver and Francisco Cordero were signed as veteran help for an already solid group. Jason Frasor returned from the White Sox, and provides even more depth. The bullpen is a solid, deep group that will be an asset for the Blue Jays.
The outfield is a very solid group, with Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and Colby Rasmus. Bautista proved that 2010 was not a fluke, and is one of the best hitters in the game. He improved his walk rate, cut down on strikeouts, and led the American League in home runs for a second consecutive year. Rasmus, a former top prospect of the Cardinals who clashed with Tony LaRussa, should benefit from a new beginning, and may be able to finally tap into his potential. Snider was hurt for much of last season, but is a solid power hitter. Rajai Davis was brought over as the fourth outfielder, and can play all three outfield positions.
Around the infield, the Blue Jays have a lot of potential. Brett Lawrie will be the everyday third baseman, after exploding onto the scene in his major league debut. He has plenty of talent; the biggest question is whether or not he can keep himself together, as he developed a reputation as a head case in the minors. If he can, Lawrie has the chance to be a top notch third baseman for years to come. Yunel Escobar is a solid player at shortstop, providing decent power, a good batting eye, and solid defense. Kelly Johnson was acquired for Aaron Hill last season, and returns as the starting second baseman. He provides solid power, and good defense. While his batting average was terrible overall, he did hit .270 in 132 plate appearances after coming over to Toronto. He should return to form with a full season as a Blue Jay. Despite back to back mediocre seasons, Adam Lind remains at first base. He does have good power, on the rare occasions when he makes contact. His strikeout percentage did improve from 2010, but his overall statline is a far cry from 2009. This may be his final chance to prove that he can be an everyday player.
J.P. Arencibia provides great power from the catcher position, but not much else. He struck out in just over one out of every three at bats, and is mediocre at best defensively. Jeff Mathis was signed to be the late inning defensive replacement. In the minors, Travis d’Arnaud is waiting to take over should Arencibia not show any improvement. At DH, the Blue Jays have Edwin Encarnacion, who can also play third and first base if needed. While he is a butcher with the glove, he is another solid bat that the Jays can plug into their lineup.
All in all, it appears to be the same situation with the Blue Jays this year as it has been in years past. They would probably win most of the other divisions in baseball, but are stuck in the brutal AL East. Once the second wild card team is added, then they will have a better chance at the playoffs, but for now, they will remain on the outside looking in.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Tampa Bay Rays 2012 Season Preview
At the beginning of 2011, the Tampa Bay Rays were written off as a team that had simply lost too many pieces to contend. Fast forward to the end of the year, and with the help of the Red Sox collapse, the Rays found themselves in the playoffs yet again.
The foundation for the Rays success begins with their formidable rotation. While they are all relatively young, Joe Maddon has proven to have delivered great results with youth. James Shields, at age 30, is the elder statesman amongst the starting rotation. While he had a career season last year, regression is to be expected, as his WHiP was far below his average mark. After a disastrous 2010, he managed to trim over two full runs from his ERA. He’s not as good as he looked in 2011, but not as bad as he was in 2010. The truth is someplace in between. Jeremy Hellickson is also a prime target for regression. Despite a fairly high walk rate and a low strikeout rate, he was helped immensely by a .223 batting average on balls in play against him. Some of the regression amongst Shields and Hellickson will be mitigated by the expected improvement from David Price and a season of Matt Moore in the rotation. Price continues to show improvement in cutting down his walk rate and has increased his strikeout rate. Moore is a phenom who tore through the minor leagues last year, and pitched well in the playoffs, as he was the surprise starter of Game One of the ALDS against Texas. Wade Davis had a solid sophomore season, and is likely to be the fifth starter, pushing Jeff Neimann either to long relief, or to the trade block.
The Rays gambled on making Kyle Farnsworth their closer last season, and it paid off. Farnsworth, who could typically be counted on to naplam any close game, put up a career season as he almost doubled his career total in saves. He returns as the closer again in 2012, but should he falter, the Rays have a plethora of options available. Jake McGee was drafted to be the Rays closer of the future, and would slide right in if needed. J.P. Howell had a disappointing 2011, but is likely to bounce back. Joel Peralta is an underrated set up man who got to an 0-2 count on 34% of batters faced last season. In that situation, he gave up only three hits all year. Fernando Rodney was also signed to a one year deal with a team option. If he can regain the form that he had previously, he may be another solid option for the seventh and eighth innings.
In the outfield are left fielder Desmond Jennings, center fielder B.J. Upton, and right fielder Matt Joyce. Upton has all the tools necessary to become great, but has a tendency to chase terrible pitches out of the strike zone and laying off fastballs down the middle of the plate. While he is a 20 home run/20 stolen base player, he may never be the elite offensive threat everyone expected. The same diagnosis can be placed on Desmond Jennings. While he was a rookie last year, he was expected to be Carl Crawford. He did end up being similar to Crawford, only it was the Carl Crawford from Boston last season. If he does not show significant improvement this season, it would not be out of the question for the Rays to try to find another option and trade Jennings. Matt Joyce can take a walk, steal the occasional base, and has a bit of power, but is more of a fourth outfielder. At this point, he probably is what he is.
At third base is Evan Longoria, who, even in a down year, had over thirty home runs. His batting average was dragged down by injuries and a .239 batting average on balls in play. Expect him to regain his form as an elite player, and the cornerstone of the lineup. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac will likely platoon at shortstop, although neither has proven to be an asset with the bat. Rodriguez may eventually take the job full time, as he has displayed a bit of power, and Brignac has an awful .272 on base percentage in his career. Either way, both players are merely holding down the position until Hak Ju Lee is brought up. Second base is held down by the very underrated Ben Zobrist. Zobrist not only provides one of the better bats in the lineup, but he also has the capability to play wherever he is needed. Carlos Pena was brought back, and while he may not hit for a high average, he does provide another power bat in the lineup, and plays Gold Glove caliber defense.
Catcher underwent a significant change, as both John Jaso and Kelly Stoppach were allowed to depart. In their place, the Rays brought in Jose Molina. While he is essentially useless with the bat, he is one of the best defensive catchers in the game. In fact, he was brought in for his ability to frame pitches – according to PitchFX, he saved 62.8 runs from framing pitches since 2008, despite playing a total of 264 games. Anything he contributes with the bat will be a bonus. At DH, the Rays brought in Orioles cast off Luke Scott, who had a terrible year in 2011, but had three consecutive years with 20+ home runs prior to that. Scott is another low-risk, high reward type player that the Rays seem to have luck with. Expect a bounce back year.
On paper, the Rays do not appear to have enough to contend with the Red Sox, Yankees, or even the Blue Jays this season. However, the same was said at the start of 2011. Joe Maddon is able to get the most out of the pieces he is given, and the pitching staff is more than enough to keep them competitive. Expect the Rays to contend for the wild card again this year.
The foundation for the Rays success begins with their formidable rotation. While they are all relatively young, Joe Maddon has proven to have delivered great results with youth. James Shields, at age 30, is the elder statesman amongst the starting rotation. While he had a career season last year, regression is to be expected, as his WHiP was far below his average mark. After a disastrous 2010, he managed to trim over two full runs from his ERA. He’s not as good as he looked in 2011, but not as bad as he was in 2010. The truth is someplace in between. Jeremy Hellickson is also a prime target for regression. Despite a fairly high walk rate and a low strikeout rate, he was helped immensely by a .223 batting average on balls in play against him. Some of the regression amongst Shields and Hellickson will be mitigated by the expected improvement from David Price and a season of Matt Moore in the rotation. Price continues to show improvement in cutting down his walk rate and has increased his strikeout rate. Moore is a phenom who tore through the minor leagues last year, and pitched well in the playoffs, as he was the surprise starter of Game One of the ALDS against Texas. Wade Davis had a solid sophomore season, and is likely to be the fifth starter, pushing Jeff Neimann either to long relief, or to the trade block.
The Rays gambled on making Kyle Farnsworth their closer last season, and it paid off. Farnsworth, who could typically be counted on to naplam any close game, put up a career season as he almost doubled his career total in saves. He returns as the closer again in 2012, but should he falter, the Rays have a plethora of options available. Jake McGee was drafted to be the Rays closer of the future, and would slide right in if needed. J.P. Howell had a disappointing 2011, but is likely to bounce back. Joel Peralta is an underrated set up man who got to an 0-2 count on 34% of batters faced last season. In that situation, he gave up only three hits all year. Fernando Rodney was also signed to a one year deal with a team option. If he can regain the form that he had previously, he may be another solid option for the seventh and eighth innings.
In the outfield are left fielder Desmond Jennings, center fielder B.J. Upton, and right fielder Matt Joyce. Upton has all the tools necessary to become great, but has a tendency to chase terrible pitches out of the strike zone and laying off fastballs down the middle of the plate. While he is a 20 home run/20 stolen base player, he may never be the elite offensive threat everyone expected. The same diagnosis can be placed on Desmond Jennings. While he was a rookie last year, he was expected to be Carl Crawford. He did end up being similar to Crawford, only it was the Carl Crawford from Boston last season. If he does not show significant improvement this season, it would not be out of the question for the Rays to try to find another option and trade Jennings. Matt Joyce can take a walk, steal the occasional base, and has a bit of power, but is more of a fourth outfielder. At this point, he probably is what he is.
At third base is Evan Longoria, who, even in a down year, had over thirty home runs. His batting average was dragged down by injuries and a .239 batting average on balls in play. Expect him to regain his form as an elite player, and the cornerstone of the lineup. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac will likely platoon at shortstop, although neither has proven to be an asset with the bat. Rodriguez may eventually take the job full time, as he has displayed a bit of power, and Brignac has an awful .272 on base percentage in his career. Either way, both players are merely holding down the position until Hak Ju Lee is brought up. Second base is held down by the very underrated Ben Zobrist. Zobrist not only provides one of the better bats in the lineup, but he also has the capability to play wherever he is needed. Carlos Pena was brought back, and while he may not hit for a high average, he does provide another power bat in the lineup, and plays Gold Glove caliber defense.
Catcher underwent a significant change, as both John Jaso and Kelly Stoppach were allowed to depart. In their place, the Rays brought in Jose Molina. While he is essentially useless with the bat, he is one of the best defensive catchers in the game. In fact, he was brought in for his ability to frame pitches – according to PitchFX, he saved 62.8 runs from framing pitches since 2008, despite playing a total of 264 games. Anything he contributes with the bat will be a bonus. At DH, the Rays brought in Orioles cast off Luke Scott, who had a terrible year in 2011, but had three consecutive years with 20+ home runs prior to that. Scott is another low-risk, high reward type player that the Rays seem to have luck with. Expect a bounce back year.
On paper, the Rays do not appear to have enough to contend with the Red Sox, Yankees, or even the Blue Jays this season. However, the same was said at the start of 2011. Joe Maddon is able to get the most out of the pieces he is given, and the pitching staff is more than enough to keep them competitive. Expect the Rays to contend for the wild card again this year.
Saturday, February 25, 2012
New York Yankees 2012 Season Preview
Amazing how quickly the perception of a team can change. The Yankees were potentially in major trouble this offseason, as C.C. Sabathia had an out clause in his contract, and the rest of the starting rotation appeared to be in serious trouble. The lineup was old, and it appeared that the Yankees’ run may, in fact, have run it’s course.
Fast forward to January 23rd. The Yankees locked up Sabathia, providing them with a legitimate anchor for the rotation. Sabathia is, despite concerns about his weight, extremely durable and consistent. The Yankees then traded for rising star Michael Pineda, giving them a much needed young potential stud for the rotation. Three days later, they signed dependable veteran Hiroki Kuroda to a one year contract. Suddenly, the rotation, which looked like a severe weakness, had become a strength. 16 game winner Ivan Nova holds down the fourth starter slot, and despite the expected regression he will have this season, is a solid piece. The fifth starter will be either Phil Hughes, who imploded last year, or Freddy Garcia, who put up a surprisingly solid year. A.J. Burnett was traded to the Pirates, which will improve the Yankees’ rotation simply by his absence. The rotation, once a weakness, is suddenly a strength.
The bullpen is solid, with future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera returning to lock down the ninth inning. Even at age 42, he shows no signs of wearing down, and looks as dominant as ever. David Robertson may have been the top set up man in baseball last year. Despite his wildness (35 walks in 66.1 innings), he was virtually unhittable, holding the opposition to a .170 batting average against while striking out over one-third of the hitters he faced. Boone Logan, Rafael Soriano, and the recently signed David Aardsma provide excellent bullpen depth, and give the Yankees plenty of options should Robertson stumble or if Rivera gets hurt.
The outfield returns intact, with Nick Swisher in right field, Curtis Granderson in center, and Brett Gardner in left. Gardner is a solid player, capable of providing a bit of power, excellent speed, and a decent glove. Granderson had a career year last season, as he finally figured out how to hit left handed pitching. His 41 home runs were far and away his highest total, and he actually drew a solid amount of walks, showing an improved batting eye. While regression is expected, he may finally be past the possibility of being a platoon candidate. Swisher is a solid left fielder, able to get on base at a good rate, hit the occasional home run, and play decent defense. Even if the outfield is not spectacular, it is a solid group.
The infield for the Yankees is a solid group, although there are concerns at shortstop and third base. Derek Jeter returns at shortstop, but one has to wonder how long he will remain an effective major league player. 2010 looked like the beginning of the end, but Jeter returned with a solid 2011, particularly in the second half when he posted a .327 batting average and .811 OPS. Alex Rodriguez has been plagued by injuries over the past couple of years, and looks like he is nearing the end of the line. If he can stay healthy, Rodriguez can still produce at a level just below elite. The question is, how many games can he play? Otherwise, Eduardo Nunez may see a lot more playing time than a team with this payroll should allow. At second base is the dependable Robinson Cano, who is one of the top two or three second basemen in the game. While known primarily for his offense, Cano has won a Gold Glove, and is one of the best at making plays at his position. First baseman Mark Teixeira has seen his batting average on balls in play dip over each of the past five seasons, but remains a solid power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Teixeira is also a very underrated defensive player, having won four Gold Glove awards.
Russell Martin had a career rennaisance last season, and was rewarded with a $7.5 million dollar deal. While his batting average suffered a bit, he regained a power stroke, and showed flashes of his former ability. Francisco Cervelli is a capable backup, and may be one of the better backup catchers in the game. At DH, the Yankees finally put Jorge Posada out of his misery. Look for a platoon with Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones to take over the position, as they finally get some production from the position over a full year.
The Yankees are poised to make a deep run this season. After having problems in the playoffs due to their pitching staff, they may return to the World Series again this season. At this point, they are the favorites to represent the American League in the Fall Classic.
Fast forward to January 23rd. The Yankees locked up Sabathia, providing them with a legitimate anchor for the rotation. Sabathia is, despite concerns about his weight, extremely durable and consistent. The Yankees then traded for rising star Michael Pineda, giving them a much needed young potential stud for the rotation. Three days later, they signed dependable veteran Hiroki Kuroda to a one year contract. Suddenly, the rotation, which looked like a severe weakness, had become a strength. 16 game winner Ivan Nova holds down the fourth starter slot, and despite the expected regression he will have this season, is a solid piece. The fifth starter will be either Phil Hughes, who imploded last year, or Freddy Garcia, who put up a surprisingly solid year. A.J. Burnett was traded to the Pirates, which will improve the Yankees’ rotation simply by his absence. The rotation, once a weakness, is suddenly a strength.
The bullpen is solid, with future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera returning to lock down the ninth inning. Even at age 42, he shows no signs of wearing down, and looks as dominant as ever. David Robertson may have been the top set up man in baseball last year. Despite his wildness (35 walks in 66.1 innings), he was virtually unhittable, holding the opposition to a .170 batting average against while striking out over one-third of the hitters he faced. Boone Logan, Rafael Soriano, and the recently signed David Aardsma provide excellent bullpen depth, and give the Yankees plenty of options should Robertson stumble or if Rivera gets hurt.
The outfield returns intact, with Nick Swisher in right field, Curtis Granderson in center, and Brett Gardner in left. Gardner is a solid player, capable of providing a bit of power, excellent speed, and a decent glove. Granderson had a career year last season, as he finally figured out how to hit left handed pitching. His 41 home runs were far and away his highest total, and he actually drew a solid amount of walks, showing an improved batting eye. While regression is expected, he may finally be past the possibility of being a platoon candidate. Swisher is a solid left fielder, able to get on base at a good rate, hit the occasional home run, and play decent defense. Even if the outfield is not spectacular, it is a solid group.
The infield for the Yankees is a solid group, although there are concerns at shortstop and third base. Derek Jeter returns at shortstop, but one has to wonder how long he will remain an effective major league player. 2010 looked like the beginning of the end, but Jeter returned with a solid 2011, particularly in the second half when he posted a .327 batting average and .811 OPS. Alex Rodriguez has been plagued by injuries over the past couple of years, and looks like he is nearing the end of the line. If he can stay healthy, Rodriguez can still produce at a level just below elite. The question is, how many games can he play? Otherwise, Eduardo Nunez may see a lot more playing time than a team with this payroll should allow. At second base is the dependable Robinson Cano, who is one of the top two or three second basemen in the game. While known primarily for his offense, Cano has won a Gold Glove, and is one of the best at making plays at his position. First baseman Mark Teixeira has seen his batting average on balls in play dip over each of the past five seasons, but remains a solid power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Teixeira is also a very underrated defensive player, having won four Gold Glove awards.
Russell Martin had a career rennaisance last season, and was rewarded with a $7.5 million dollar deal. While his batting average suffered a bit, he regained a power stroke, and showed flashes of his former ability. Francisco Cervelli is a capable backup, and may be one of the better backup catchers in the game. At DH, the Yankees finally put Jorge Posada out of his misery. Look for a platoon with Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones to take over the position, as they finally get some production from the position over a full year.
The Yankees are poised to make a deep run this season. After having problems in the playoffs due to their pitching staff, they may return to the World Series again this season. At this point, they are the favorites to represent the American League in the Fall Classic.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Boston Red Sox 2012 Season Preview
Following a collapse that left many diehard Red Sox fans recalling the days prior to 2004, the Sox made wholesale changes – to the front office and coaching staff. Gone are the ‘Boy Wonder’ Theo Epstein, having been traded to the Chicago Cubs to take over as the team’s President of Baseball Operations. The Sox also got rid their most successful manager in the history of the franchise in Terry Francona. In their place, the Sox hired The Official Puppet of Larry Lucchino in Ben Cherington as GM; and Bobby Valentine as manager, a man who is better known for his ability to generate goodwill, provide a quality soundbite, and wear Groucho Marx glasses than for his baseball acumen.
These replacements would be somewhat palatable if the Red Sox did anything this offseason to upgrade their roster. Anything at all. However, they did the polar opposite, letting Jonathon Papelbon walk in free agency, trading their starting shortstop for minor league filler, and not addressing any of the holes on their roster. What, exactly, was the plan?
The starting rotation returns Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett. Buchholz was injured most of last year, so there is no guarantee that he will return to form in 2012. Lester and Beckett both produced statistics that looked good at the end of the year, but were also primarily responcible for the Sox epic collapse of 2012. Behind them, a group of has-beens in Vincente Padilla, Carlos Silva, John Maine and Aaron Cook, never-weres in Felix Doubrant and Tom Gorzelanny, and converted relievers in Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves. As maligned as John Lackey and Diasuke Matsuzaka have been, they are actually much better than the corpses that the Sox are looking to trot out two out of every five starts.
The bullpen could be decent, however. Even though they lost Papelbon, they traded for Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon, both of whom have closing experience. If Bailey can remain healthy all season, they have an All-Star closer at an extremely affordable price. However, the key with him is his ability to stay healthy. If Bard goes back to the bullpen, the combo of he and Melancon will make the seventh and eight innings fairly worry free. However, the rest of the bullpen is in disarray. Bobby Jenks dealt with a potentially life threating situation with his spine this offseason, and there are doubts as to whether or not he will pitch again. Matt Albers looked solid at the start of last season, but wore down as hitters remembered that he was, in fact, the pitcher that bombed in Baltimore in recent history. The rest of the bullpen will consist of whatever arms do not stick in the rotation, none of which appear to be viable major league options.
In the outfield, center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury came back from an injury plagued 2010 with a vengeance, finally capitalizing on his potential. However, questions remain as to whether or not he can remain healthy, and if he can put up similar numbers consistently. Left field is manned by Carl Crawford, who was such a disappointment last year that team owner John Henry went out of his way to state that he was against the signing from the start. In right field, the often injured J.D. Drew has departed, as has the heir apparent in Josh Reddick. By all appearances, the Sox are hoping to cobble the position together with Cody Ross, Mark Sweeney, and possibly Ryan Kalish. None of these options really inspire any confidence.
Shortstop and third base have the potential to be disasters for the Sox. Shortstop Marco Scutaro was dumped, apparently for financial reasons. In his place, the Sox have the triumvirate of Mike Aviles, Jose Iglasies, and their big free agent signing – Nick Punto. If Aviles remains true to form and produces in even numbered years, then they will be decent there. Otherwise, this could be a black hole in the lineup. At third base is Kevin Youkilis, a solid player when healthy. However, Youkilis has been injured over the past two seasons, and missed a significant amount of time last year. One has to wonder if his body can hold up to playing third base at this stage of his career. If not, uber-prospect Will Middlebrooks had better live up to his billing, or else the Sox offense will be in serious trouble.
On the plus side, first and second base are solid. Adrian Gonzalez produced a monster season, ranking in the top ten in the American League in most meaningful offensive categories while providing Gold Glove caliber defense. He will anchor the lineup for years to come. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia provides a bit of everything for Boston, bringing surprising power, underrated speed, and leadership qualities that the Sox are in desperate need of. At DH, David Ortiz appears to have hit a second wind in his career, and is back for another season.
If everything turns out perfect for the Red Sox, they can contend for a World Series berth. However, it is even more likely that the Sox could be on the outside looking in. Enjoy the memories of the Terry Francona Era, because the days of being a perennial contender appear to be just about done.
These replacements would be somewhat palatable if the Red Sox did anything this offseason to upgrade their roster. Anything at all. However, they did the polar opposite, letting Jonathon Papelbon walk in free agency, trading their starting shortstop for minor league filler, and not addressing any of the holes on their roster. What, exactly, was the plan?
The starting rotation returns Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett. Buchholz was injured most of last year, so there is no guarantee that he will return to form in 2012. Lester and Beckett both produced statistics that looked good at the end of the year, but were also primarily responcible for the Sox epic collapse of 2012. Behind them, a group of has-beens in Vincente Padilla, Carlos Silva, John Maine and Aaron Cook, never-weres in Felix Doubrant and Tom Gorzelanny, and converted relievers in Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves. As maligned as John Lackey and Diasuke Matsuzaka have been, they are actually much better than the corpses that the Sox are looking to trot out two out of every five starts.
The bullpen could be decent, however. Even though they lost Papelbon, they traded for Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon, both of whom have closing experience. If Bailey can remain healthy all season, they have an All-Star closer at an extremely affordable price. However, the key with him is his ability to stay healthy. If Bard goes back to the bullpen, the combo of he and Melancon will make the seventh and eight innings fairly worry free. However, the rest of the bullpen is in disarray. Bobby Jenks dealt with a potentially life threating situation with his spine this offseason, and there are doubts as to whether or not he will pitch again. Matt Albers looked solid at the start of last season, but wore down as hitters remembered that he was, in fact, the pitcher that bombed in Baltimore in recent history. The rest of the bullpen will consist of whatever arms do not stick in the rotation, none of which appear to be viable major league options.
In the outfield, center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury came back from an injury plagued 2010 with a vengeance, finally capitalizing on his potential. However, questions remain as to whether or not he can remain healthy, and if he can put up similar numbers consistently. Left field is manned by Carl Crawford, who was such a disappointment last year that team owner John Henry went out of his way to state that he was against the signing from the start. In right field, the often injured J.D. Drew has departed, as has the heir apparent in Josh Reddick. By all appearances, the Sox are hoping to cobble the position together with Cody Ross, Mark Sweeney, and possibly Ryan Kalish. None of these options really inspire any confidence.
Shortstop and third base have the potential to be disasters for the Sox. Shortstop Marco Scutaro was dumped, apparently for financial reasons. In his place, the Sox have the triumvirate of Mike Aviles, Jose Iglasies, and their big free agent signing – Nick Punto. If Aviles remains true to form and produces in even numbered years, then they will be decent there. Otherwise, this could be a black hole in the lineup. At third base is Kevin Youkilis, a solid player when healthy. However, Youkilis has been injured over the past two seasons, and missed a significant amount of time last year. One has to wonder if his body can hold up to playing third base at this stage of his career. If not, uber-prospect Will Middlebrooks had better live up to his billing, or else the Sox offense will be in serious trouble.
On the plus side, first and second base are solid. Adrian Gonzalez produced a monster season, ranking in the top ten in the American League in most meaningful offensive categories while providing Gold Glove caliber defense. He will anchor the lineup for years to come. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia provides a bit of everything for Boston, bringing surprising power, underrated speed, and leadership qualities that the Sox are in desperate need of. At DH, David Ortiz appears to have hit a second wind in his career, and is back for another season.
If everything turns out perfect for the Red Sox, they can contend for a World Series berth. However, it is even more likely that the Sox could be on the outside looking in. Enjoy the memories of the Terry Francona Era, because the days of being a perennial contender appear to be just about done.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Baltimore Orioles 2012 Season Preview
It is one thing to be an excruciatingly terrible team in a normal division. There may be the odd game that you catch a break and win here and there, a couple of players could preform far above their expectations, and might end up near .500. Then there are the Baltimore Orioles, a terrible team stuck in the best division in baseball. Losing less than 100 games would be a shock.
The offense revolves around two legitimately good players in All-Star catcher Matt Wieters and center fielder Adam Jones. Wieters is well on his way to becoming one of the top backstops in all of baseball, and Jones is a solid threat for twenty home runs and twenty stolen bases per year. Nick Markakis returns in right field, and while he is a decent player, has been a disappointment. Nolan Reimold figures to get the first chance at left field, but is coming back from injuries and may not be ready for the start of the season. If he is unable to play, then newly acquired Endy Chavez would take his spot, providing a decent glove and not much offense.
The infield consists of a plethora of questionable players. Brian Roberts was once one of the best second basemen in all of baseball, but is dealing with the aftermath of a severe concussion. It would be surprising if he manages to play with any effectiveness again. In his place is Robert Andino, best known for having a solid glove and getting the hit to complete the Red Sox epic collapse last season. On a good team, he is a utility player – on the Orioles, he’s probably going to be one of their most productive players. Shortstop is held down by J.J. Hardy, who managed to be healthy for the first time since 2008 and put up a career year. Third baseman Mark Reynolds and first baseman Chris Davis are the ultimate at being Rob Deer 2.0 - they will strike out, walk, or hit the ball around 500 feet. Add their batting averages together this year, and you may get to around .350. Neither player is a long term answer.
The pitchign staff is littered with AAAA players. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrietta, Chris Tillman, and Zack Britton look great in the minors, but are completely unable to get out major league hitters. Newly acquired Dana Eveland, if healthy, may end up being their best starting pitcher, which should indicate the truly horrific nature of this pitching staff. Seeing Rosie O’Donnell naked may be slightly less horrifying than watching one of their starts.
The bullpen is actually a slightly bigger disaster than the rotation, if that can be believed. Kevin Gregg held down the closer job last year, mainly because he was a closer before, despite a WHiP of 1.642 and a K/BB ratio of 1.325. Jim Johnson is expected to be the closer this season, and would be an upgrade just by removing Gregg from the equation. Matt Lindstrom is a decent pitcher as a middle reliever, but is expected to be a setup man. The rest of the bullpen consists of rookies and no-name players that were pulled off the scrap heap. They may as well just bring in a can of petrol and a match.
The Orioles are destined to finish in the basement of the AL East again in 2012, padding the records of the other AL East teams.
The offense revolves around two legitimately good players in All-Star catcher Matt Wieters and center fielder Adam Jones. Wieters is well on his way to becoming one of the top backstops in all of baseball, and Jones is a solid threat for twenty home runs and twenty stolen bases per year. Nick Markakis returns in right field, and while he is a decent player, has been a disappointment. Nolan Reimold figures to get the first chance at left field, but is coming back from injuries and may not be ready for the start of the season. If he is unable to play, then newly acquired Endy Chavez would take his spot, providing a decent glove and not much offense.
The infield consists of a plethora of questionable players. Brian Roberts was once one of the best second basemen in all of baseball, but is dealing with the aftermath of a severe concussion. It would be surprising if he manages to play with any effectiveness again. In his place is Robert Andino, best known for having a solid glove and getting the hit to complete the Red Sox epic collapse last season. On a good team, he is a utility player – on the Orioles, he’s probably going to be one of their most productive players. Shortstop is held down by J.J. Hardy, who managed to be healthy for the first time since 2008 and put up a career year. Third baseman Mark Reynolds and first baseman Chris Davis are the ultimate at being Rob Deer 2.0 - they will strike out, walk, or hit the ball around 500 feet. Add their batting averages together this year, and you may get to around .350. Neither player is a long term answer.
The pitchign staff is littered with AAAA players. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrietta, Chris Tillman, and Zack Britton look great in the minors, but are completely unable to get out major league hitters. Newly acquired Dana Eveland, if healthy, may end up being their best starting pitcher, which should indicate the truly horrific nature of this pitching staff. Seeing Rosie O’Donnell naked may be slightly less horrifying than watching one of their starts.
The bullpen is actually a slightly bigger disaster than the rotation, if that can be believed. Kevin Gregg held down the closer job last year, mainly because he was a closer before, despite a WHiP of 1.642 and a K/BB ratio of 1.325. Jim Johnson is expected to be the closer this season, and would be an upgrade just by removing Gregg from the equation. Matt Lindstrom is a decent pitcher as a middle reliever, but is expected to be a setup man. The rest of the bullpen consists of rookies and no-name players that were pulled off the scrap heap. They may as well just bring in a can of petrol and a match.
The Orioles are destined to finish in the basement of the AL East again in 2012, padding the records of the other AL East teams.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Baseball's Dream Team
Apparently, putting together a ‘Dream Team’ has become the latest trend, roughly akin to the latest technological device. And like that new technology, it hasn’t worked out as expected.
Remember when the Miami Heat rolled out the first ‘Dream Team’ and how everyone anointed them as the NBA Champions before a single game had been played? Remember how LeBron demonstrated that he could count to seven as though he was the NBA version of The Count from Sesame Street when discussing how many championships they would win? Or remember how the Philadelphia Eagles were thought to be the future Super Bowl Champions and the regular season was merely a formality? Yeah, how well did that work out for either team?
Now the Miami Marlins are ignoring the lessons of history. And not distant history, such as when military leaders manage to forget that attacking Russia in the winter is a bad idea. This is recent history; in fact, it’s history in their own city. Obviously foresight and recognition of a problem are not amongst the strengths of the Marlins front office.
To further this point, look at the acquisitions they have made and the players they have been linked to. Already, they have signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell. They have been linked to C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder. Now, look at the roster that they are returning. Of the problems the Marlins had, shortstop and first base were not amongst those. Yes, they needed some help in the rotation and Buehrle fits that role, but does anyone really think that C.J. Wilson is truly worth ace money, especially when they already have Josh Johnson? Ridiculous.
Then there is the insanity that was the Jose Reyes signing. They already had an All-Star caliber shortstop in Hanley Ramirez. So why spend a ludicrous amount of money on a shortstop that can never stay healthy? Especially one with a history of leg, knee, and ankle injuries, whose best asset just so happens to be speed? Did they really expect Ramirez to be ok with the move, and quietly slide over the third base? Guess they completely botched their appraisal of that situation.
Meanwhile, the two most glaring holes on their roster have yet to actually be addressed. The primary third basemen for the Marlins hit a total of eight home runs last year. Eight. The had a center field combo that involved Emilio Bonifacio and Chris Coghlan. But obviously, those positions should not be a priority in free agency, when the team is opening it’s checkbook for the first time since 1997.
Sadly, there are free agents available that would have helped the Marlins in those very spots. Aramis Ramirez comes to mind. His bat in the middle of that lineup would make the Marlins rather formidable. Center field would be a bit harder to fill, but David DeJesus would have been a nice addition and can play a bit of center. Of the remaining free agents, Coco Crisp would be a solid signing, and probably would not cost a lot. This would allow the Marlins to spend money locking up their own talented young players. Instead, they will have a total of six players under contract in 2013. Six. Guess they didn’t get the memo that they are not playing fantasy baseball down there.
Like the other ‘Dream Teams’, this one will fail to meet expectations. Expect the Marlins to miss the playoffs, and unless Ozzie Guillen works more of his magic, they will finish below .500.
Remember when the Miami Heat rolled out the first ‘Dream Team’ and how everyone anointed them as the NBA Champions before a single game had been played? Remember how LeBron demonstrated that he could count to seven as though he was the NBA version of The Count from Sesame Street when discussing how many championships they would win? Or remember how the Philadelphia Eagles were thought to be the future Super Bowl Champions and the regular season was merely a formality? Yeah, how well did that work out for either team?
Now the Miami Marlins are ignoring the lessons of history. And not distant history, such as when military leaders manage to forget that attacking Russia in the winter is a bad idea. This is recent history; in fact, it’s history in their own city. Obviously foresight and recognition of a problem are not amongst the strengths of the Marlins front office.
To further this point, look at the acquisitions they have made and the players they have been linked to. Already, they have signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell. They have been linked to C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder. Now, look at the roster that they are returning. Of the problems the Marlins had, shortstop and first base were not amongst those. Yes, they needed some help in the rotation and Buehrle fits that role, but does anyone really think that C.J. Wilson is truly worth ace money, especially when they already have Josh Johnson? Ridiculous.
Then there is the insanity that was the Jose Reyes signing. They already had an All-Star caliber shortstop in Hanley Ramirez. So why spend a ludicrous amount of money on a shortstop that can never stay healthy? Especially one with a history of leg, knee, and ankle injuries, whose best asset just so happens to be speed? Did they really expect Ramirez to be ok with the move, and quietly slide over the third base? Guess they completely botched their appraisal of that situation.
Meanwhile, the two most glaring holes on their roster have yet to actually be addressed. The primary third basemen for the Marlins hit a total of eight home runs last year. Eight. The had a center field combo that involved Emilio Bonifacio and Chris Coghlan. But obviously, those positions should not be a priority in free agency, when the team is opening it’s checkbook for the first time since 1997.
Sadly, there are free agents available that would have helped the Marlins in those very spots. Aramis Ramirez comes to mind. His bat in the middle of that lineup would make the Marlins rather formidable. Center field would be a bit harder to fill, but David DeJesus would have been a nice addition and can play a bit of center. Of the remaining free agents, Coco Crisp would be a solid signing, and probably would not cost a lot. This would allow the Marlins to spend money locking up their own talented young players. Instead, they will have a total of six players under contract in 2013. Six. Guess they didn’t get the memo that they are not playing fantasy baseball down there.
Like the other ‘Dream Teams’, this one will fail to meet expectations. Expect the Marlins to miss the playoffs, and unless Ozzie Guillen works more of his magic, they will finish below .500.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Justin Verlander And The MVP Award
The MVP award is designed to go to, literally, the most valuable player in his league. Somehow, over the years, this has morphed into the most valuable position player. The line of thinking is that, since pitchers have the Cy Young Award, the MVP should go to an every day player. This line of thought is simply asinine.
In the early days of the MVP award, the voters felt the same. Pitchers would routinely be voted as MVP’s, right on through the mid-1940′s. Then, something in the thought process of the voters changed. This was even back before the advent of the Cy Young, so they did not even have ‘their award’. In fact, the only time a pitcher won MVP between 1945 and 1986 was back in 1968, when Bob Gibson and Denny McClain both won MVP. This was mainly because no one else was even close to being worthy.
Lately, however, the way that awards are voted on has changed. The sabermetric community has brought along new statistics designed to prove a player’s true value to their team, while devaluing the old standby categories, such as wins and RBI. This become most evident back in 2009, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award, despite winning only 16 games. Then in 2010, Felix Hernandez finished 13-12, but was voted the Cy Young. Both players deserved the awards, not by conventional thinking, but by measuring their performance differently.
This train of thought had not continued along to the MVP ballot however. Then along came Justin Verlander, and his fabulous 2011 season. Not only did Verlander run away with the Cy Young, but he also managed to become Justin Verlander – MVP. Verlander is the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley back in 1992. Looking at the WAR statistic, Verlander tied Jose Bautista at 8.5. Bautista, playing for the also ran Blue Jays, finished third in the balloting.
Verlander was, by far, the most valuable player to his team’s success in a non-statistical way as well. Take Verlander off of the Tigers, and they are a third place team. Take Jacoby Ellsbury off the Red Sox, and they still do not make the playoffs. Take Bautista off the Blue Jays, they still do not make it to the playoffs. Verlander meant far more to his team’s success; which, by definition, makes him the most valuable player.
Now, people will argue that, as Verlander pitched in only 34 games, he is not as valuable as Ellsbury, who played in 158 games. This theory is easily debunked. Ellsbury had a total of 718 plate appearances, while Verlander faced 969 batters. Verlander had, by that measurement, 251 more chances to affect the game than Ellsbury did. Factoring in fielding, Ellsbury had 50 chances, while Ellsbury had 394. When adding plate appearances and total chances for Ellsbury, the total is 1112. Verlander had 1019. The difference of 93 is less than one ball per game. Games played truly has no bearing on who is most valuable, especially this year.
The Most Valuable Player is not always a position player. Hopefully this vote shows that people are beginning to realize that.
In the early days of the MVP award, the voters felt the same. Pitchers would routinely be voted as MVP’s, right on through the mid-1940′s. Then, something in the thought process of the voters changed. This was even back before the advent of the Cy Young, so they did not even have ‘their award’. In fact, the only time a pitcher won MVP between 1945 and 1986 was back in 1968, when Bob Gibson and Denny McClain both won MVP. This was mainly because no one else was even close to being worthy.
Lately, however, the way that awards are voted on has changed. The sabermetric community has brought along new statistics designed to prove a player’s true value to their team, while devaluing the old standby categories, such as wins and RBI. This become most evident back in 2009, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award, despite winning only 16 games. Then in 2010, Felix Hernandez finished 13-12, but was voted the Cy Young. Both players deserved the awards, not by conventional thinking, but by measuring their performance differently.
This train of thought had not continued along to the MVP ballot however. Then along came Justin Verlander, and his fabulous 2011 season. Not only did Verlander run away with the Cy Young, but he also managed to become Justin Verlander – MVP. Verlander is the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley back in 1992. Looking at the WAR statistic, Verlander tied Jose Bautista at 8.5. Bautista, playing for the also ran Blue Jays, finished third in the balloting.
Verlander was, by far, the most valuable player to his team’s success in a non-statistical way as well. Take Verlander off of the Tigers, and they are a third place team. Take Jacoby Ellsbury off the Red Sox, and they still do not make the playoffs. Take Bautista off the Blue Jays, they still do not make it to the playoffs. Verlander meant far more to his team’s success; which, by definition, makes him the most valuable player.
Now, people will argue that, as Verlander pitched in only 34 games, he is not as valuable as Ellsbury, who played in 158 games. This theory is easily debunked. Ellsbury had a total of 718 plate appearances, while Verlander faced 969 batters. Verlander had, by that measurement, 251 more chances to affect the game than Ellsbury did. Factoring in fielding, Ellsbury had 50 chances, while Ellsbury had 394. When adding plate appearances and total chances for Ellsbury, the total is 1112. Verlander had 1019. The difference of 93 is less than one ball per game. Games played truly has no bearing on who is most valuable, especially this year.
The Most Valuable Player is not always a position player. Hopefully this vote shows that people are beginning to realize that.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
A Lose-Lose Situation
Every so often, there is a transaction or situation where both parties can claim victory. More often than not, one side will win, and the other side will lose. And still, there are those transactions and situations where both sides lose out. The latter situation is what the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox presently have.
First, the Cubs angle. They can point to the fact that Theo Epstein won two World Series rings with the Red Sox during his tenure. Yes, he did get those rings, but the fact of the matter is that he did not truly put those teams together. The core of the 2004 Red Sox team was put together by Dan Duquette, a man most commonly remembered for saying that Roger Clemens was done after allowing him to leave as a free agent following the 1996 season. Yes, Theo made the trade to get rid of Nomar, bringing in Doug Mientkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera, but who is to say that Duquette would not have made a similar move? Yes, trading Nomar when they did took balls, but Duquette was not afraid to make a huge splash either.
Then there is the 2007 championship. There were still a number of holdovers from that 2004 team, with the biggest additions being Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Both of those happened to come over during ap oint in time when Theo was not with the Sox, having infamously left in a power struggle with Larry Lucchino (more on him later).
So what has Theo actually done? He gets a lot of credit for rebuilding the Red Sox farm system, but a lot of the players that came up during his tenure and stayed with the Sox were, once again, Duquette draft picks. He did manage to sign such notable free agents as Julio Lugo, John Lackey, J.D. Drew, Matt Clement, Edgar Rentaria, Mike Cameron, Bobby Jenks, Carl Crawford, and Daisuke Matsuzaka however. Oh, wait. Those guys sucked. Where did he get that genius label from again?
Now he’s off to the Cubs, calling them the ‘ultimate challenge’. He’s brought over his guy, Jed Hoyer, to be the GM. The Cubs will now be run according to his ‘organizational philosophy’, which involves valuing draft picks over free agents. Over the past nine years, the Sox have had 32 first round and sandwich draft picks (mmmm…..sandwich….). The Cubs, meanwhile, have been dead last with 16. This will change, for better or for worse. At least he can’t be as bad as that previous waste of space they had a GM, Jim Hendry.
Now to the Red Sox.
Part of why Theo left the Sox was that he no longer would have to deal with Larry Lucchino, a man that is roughly as pleasant to deal with as a CarrotTop stand-up routine. Lucchino and Epstein had been in a power struggle pretty much since the beginning, leading the Sox to essentially have two voices trying to shout each other down. Larry would manipulate the public relations side of the team to whatever he felt his agenda was, while Theo would just ignore his verdicts sent down from on high. Yeah, that’s a great situation to be around.
Now that Theo is gone, Larry wins his personal war. But are the Red Sox better for it? For all his faults, Epstein did have a long term organizational view at heart. He truly did what he felt was right to put together a winning franchise on the field. Lucchino, being one of the owners of the team, even if he is a minority owner, is more concerned with filling Fenway with customers and getting ratings on NESN than he is with the won-loss record. If people tune in, why would he care if the Sox win or not?
Lucchino is also, by all accounts, a filthy rat. He is not a man to be trusted whatsoever, unless you want to find a knife protruding from your back. Given the history of the Red Sox in recent years of ripping people as they leave the organization, you can see why most people would trust Lucchino as far as they can throw him.
Now that slimy weasel has control of the Red Sox. Yes, Ben Cherington has been named as the Red Sox new GM, but it’s really going to be Lucchino pulling the strings from behind the scenes. This promises to be a train wreck. Since the Red Sox clubhouse is already in shambles, the team chemistry is atrocious, and the fan base is almost in meltdown mode, how can things get worse?
Well, for starters, they can do what they did and give Lucchino the keys. A person with zero experience making actual roster decisions now having what is essentially the final say over everything in a major market with seemingly unlimited money to spend? Sounds a lot like what the Yankees were over the mid 1980′s to mid 1990′s. Welcome to bloated payrolls, short sighted signings, and a losing record for years to come. The GM and manager’s positions promise to be a revolving door, but who cares as long as people pack the ballpark and sing to Sweet Caroline?
Both teams lose in this situation. And both teams will continue to lose on the field for a long time.
First, the Cubs angle. They can point to the fact that Theo Epstein won two World Series rings with the Red Sox during his tenure. Yes, he did get those rings, but the fact of the matter is that he did not truly put those teams together. The core of the 2004 Red Sox team was put together by Dan Duquette, a man most commonly remembered for saying that Roger Clemens was done after allowing him to leave as a free agent following the 1996 season. Yes, Theo made the trade to get rid of Nomar, bringing in Doug Mientkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera, but who is to say that Duquette would not have made a similar move? Yes, trading Nomar when they did took balls, but Duquette was not afraid to make a huge splash either.
Then there is the 2007 championship. There were still a number of holdovers from that 2004 team, with the biggest additions being Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Both of those happened to come over during ap oint in time when Theo was not with the Sox, having infamously left in a power struggle with Larry Lucchino (more on him later).
So what has Theo actually done? He gets a lot of credit for rebuilding the Red Sox farm system, but a lot of the players that came up during his tenure and stayed with the Sox were, once again, Duquette draft picks. He did manage to sign such notable free agents as Julio Lugo, John Lackey, J.D. Drew, Matt Clement, Edgar Rentaria, Mike Cameron, Bobby Jenks, Carl Crawford, and Daisuke Matsuzaka however. Oh, wait. Those guys sucked. Where did he get that genius label from again?
Now he’s off to the Cubs, calling them the ‘ultimate challenge’. He’s brought over his guy, Jed Hoyer, to be the GM. The Cubs will now be run according to his ‘organizational philosophy’, which involves valuing draft picks over free agents. Over the past nine years, the Sox have had 32 first round and sandwich draft picks (mmmm…..sandwich….). The Cubs, meanwhile, have been dead last with 16. This will change, for better or for worse. At least he can’t be as bad as that previous waste of space they had a GM, Jim Hendry.
Now to the Red Sox.
Part of why Theo left the Sox was that he no longer would have to deal with Larry Lucchino, a man that is roughly as pleasant to deal with as a CarrotTop stand-up routine. Lucchino and Epstein had been in a power struggle pretty much since the beginning, leading the Sox to essentially have two voices trying to shout each other down. Larry would manipulate the public relations side of the team to whatever he felt his agenda was, while Theo would just ignore his verdicts sent down from on high. Yeah, that’s a great situation to be around.
Now that Theo is gone, Larry wins his personal war. But are the Red Sox better for it? For all his faults, Epstein did have a long term organizational view at heart. He truly did what he felt was right to put together a winning franchise on the field. Lucchino, being one of the owners of the team, even if he is a minority owner, is more concerned with filling Fenway with customers and getting ratings on NESN than he is with the won-loss record. If people tune in, why would he care if the Sox win or not?
Lucchino is also, by all accounts, a filthy rat. He is not a man to be trusted whatsoever, unless you want to find a knife protruding from your back. Given the history of the Red Sox in recent years of ripping people as they leave the organization, you can see why most people would trust Lucchino as far as they can throw him.
Now that slimy weasel has control of the Red Sox. Yes, Ben Cherington has been named as the Red Sox new GM, but it’s really going to be Lucchino pulling the strings from behind the scenes. This promises to be a train wreck. Since the Red Sox clubhouse is already in shambles, the team chemistry is atrocious, and the fan base is almost in meltdown mode, how can things get worse?
Well, for starters, they can do what they did and give Lucchino the keys. A person with zero experience making actual roster decisions now having what is essentially the final say over everything in a major market with seemingly unlimited money to spend? Sounds a lot like what the Yankees were over the mid 1980′s to mid 1990′s. Welcome to bloated payrolls, short sighted signings, and a losing record for years to come. The GM and manager’s positions promise to be a revolving door, but who cares as long as people pack the ballpark and sing to Sweet Caroline?
Both teams lose in this situation. And both teams will continue to lose on the field for a long time.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Fixing the Red Sox
Last night, the Red Sox completed a collapse that was reminiscent of 1978 by blowing a nine game lead in the wild card during the month of September. For the last twenty games, they managed to play worse than anyone else in the American League except for the Royals, who they tied with a dreadful 5-15 record. That sort of record can be expected by teams that are going nowhere, as they are giving AAA players a shot to prove they can play, but not from a potential playoff team like the Sox were.
However, there is a way to fix the Red Sox so that their issues do not appear again. So step away from the Take-A-Number machine at the Tobin Bridge, get off the ledge, and stop jumping to your deaths. Also, look at the bright side in this – chances are, there will be fewer Pink Hat fans at Fenway next year, allowing real Sox fans to have greater access to the park.
Step One to fixing the Red Sox – get rid of Terry Francona and Curt Young: Quite simply, Francona’s time has come. He has lost the clubhouse, as evidenced by his admission earlier today that he needed to call a team meeting during their time in Toronto earlier this month, telling the players to focus on the game and not any off-field distractions. That obviously did not happen. The Sox continued to play with their heads buried in the sand for the remainder of the month, as they appeared complacent that their superior talent would allow them to coast into the playoffs as though it was their right. Francona has created an atmosphere where players do not need to take responsibility for their actions or performances (see Lackey, John). They can get time off due to phantom injuries (see Drew, JD). They can be out of shape for the entire season, and it does not matter (see half their roster). He needs to go.
Joining him should be Curt Young. Young was a terrible fit for this organization, as they have a number of strikeout pitchers, but he tried to implement a philosphy of pitching to contact. However, to have that be effective, there needs to be something resembling defense behind the pitchers, and the pitchers have to know how to get the hitter to hit the ball off the end of the bat. Too often, Red Sox pitchers threw absolute meatballs in key situations and were unable to get the big outs when they needed them. This can be placed squarely on Young and his pitching philosphy.
Step Two – Find Cement Shoes For John Lackey: If Lackey was the horse that he looks like, he would have been allowed to eat one last sugar cube before someone took a shotgun and blew his brains all over the pasture. The only thing he would be good for is Tyler Durden’s soap. Lackey is the personification of what is wrong with the Red Sox – fat, complacent, unable to take responsibility for the fact that he sucks, and has a contract almost as bloated as his waistline. If the Sox can get anything at all for him, even if it is a garbage bag of used sweatsocks, they should jump on it in a moment. Too bad that Jim Hendry got fired a couple months ago, because Lackey is his type of player – useless and overpaid. Oh, and you have three more years of this at $15.25Million per. The Sox may actually be better off dumping him entirely and regarding that money as a loss.
Step Three – Change Their Free Agent Evaluation Process: Whatever the Sox are doing, it is not working. They are dangerously close to becoming the New York Yankees of the mid 19080′s to the mid 1990′s. Remember that collection of high priced misfit toys that Steinbrenner would assemble that hated each other and could not play together? Well, that’s where the Sox are heading. Instead of trying to find the best fit for their long and short term goals, they have done nothing but throw money at the problems (see Lackey, John and Crawford, Carl). It does not matter if the players make any actual sense for the organization, it just matters as to whether or not they are big names. The Sox used to be good at finding players that fit their system (Ortiz, Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, Curt Schilling, etc), regardless of their reputations. Now, they are simply throwing big names at a wall and hoping they stick. This is why the clubhouse is so fractured, and why no one cares. Speaking of…..
Step Four – Youth Infusion: Let’s look at the prospective free agents this offseason for the Sox. There are Marco Scutaro, Ortiz, Jason Varitek, JD Drew, Tim Wakefield, Hideki Okajima, and Jonathon Papelbon. Of those players, only Ortiz and Papelbon would be worth bringing back in. This leaves the door open for Jose Iglesias at shortstop, Ryan Lavarnway at catcher, Ryan Kalish in right field, and a couple of players in the bullpen. The Red Sox were nothing more than a bunch of high priced players who simply went through the motions. While the steady influence and calming nature of veteran leadership is valuable during the closely contested games and the playoffs, it takes youthful exuberance to get a team to play with energy during the dog days of the season. The Sox have been lacking that for a long time, and it has proven to be a major detriment. Bring in some of the kids in AAA, instead of blowing money on high priced players that do not fit.
The Sox just need to do the preceding four things and they will be back to where they were during 2004 and 2007 – winning championships. However, that would require the Sox to actually focus on baseball moves, instead of acquiring players that the Pink Hat community will like. Naturally, this process would be about as popular with them as it would be if someone collected every copy of ‘Sweet Caroline’ and blew them up Disco Demolition style. So it will not happen. Why fix the problem when the park is filled with happy slobs that will pay $10 for a beer, just for the experience of being at Fenway?
However, there is a way to fix the Red Sox so that their issues do not appear again. So step away from the Take-A-Number machine at the Tobin Bridge, get off the ledge, and stop jumping to your deaths. Also, look at the bright side in this – chances are, there will be fewer Pink Hat fans at Fenway next year, allowing real Sox fans to have greater access to the park.
Step One to fixing the Red Sox – get rid of Terry Francona and Curt Young: Quite simply, Francona’s time has come. He has lost the clubhouse, as evidenced by his admission earlier today that he needed to call a team meeting during their time in Toronto earlier this month, telling the players to focus on the game and not any off-field distractions. That obviously did not happen. The Sox continued to play with their heads buried in the sand for the remainder of the month, as they appeared complacent that their superior talent would allow them to coast into the playoffs as though it was their right. Francona has created an atmosphere where players do not need to take responsibility for their actions or performances (see Lackey, John). They can get time off due to phantom injuries (see Drew, JD). They can be out of shape for the entire season, and it does not matter (see half their roster). He needs to go.
Joining him should be Curt Young. Young was a terrible fit for this organization, as they have a number of strikeout pitchers, but he tried to implement a philosphy of pitching to contact. However, to have that be effective, there needs to be something resembling defense behind the pitchers, and the pitchers have to know how to get the hitter to hit the ball off the end of the bat. Too often, Red Sox pitchers threw absolute meatballs in key situations and were unable to get the big outs when they needed them. This can be placed squarely on Young and his pitching philosphy.
Step Two – Find Cement Shoes For John Lackey: If Lackey was the horse that he looks like, he would have been allowed to eat one last sugar cube before someone took a shotgun and blew his brains all over the pasture. The only thing he would be good for is Tyler Durden’s soap. Lackey is the personification of what is wrong with the Red Sox – fat, complacent, unable to take responsibility for the fact that he sucks, and has a contract almost as bloated as his waistline. If the Sox can get anything at all for him, even if it is a garbage bag of used sweatsocks, they should jump on it in a moment. Too bad that Jim Hendry got fired a couple months ago, because Lackey is his type of player – useless and overpaid. Oh, and you have three more years of this at $15.25Million per. The Sox may actually be better off dumping him entirely and regarding that money as a loss.
Step Three – Change Their Free Agent Evaluation Process: Whatever the Sox are doing, it is not working. They are dangerously close to becoming the New York Yankees of the mid 19080′s to the mid 1990′s. Remember that collection of high priced misfit toys that Steinbrenner would assemble that hated each other and could not play together? Well, that’s where the Sox are heading. Instead of trying to find the best fit for their long and short term goals, they have done nothing but throw money at the problems (see Lackey, John and Crawford, Carl). It does not matter if the players make any actual sense for the organization, it just matters as to whether or not they are big names. The Sox used to be good at finding players that fit their system (Ortiz, Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, Curt Schilling, etc), regardless of their reputations. Now, they are simply throwing big names at a wall and hoping they stick. This is why the clubhouse is so fractured, and why no one cares. Speaking of…..
Step Four – Youth Infusion: Let’s look at the prospective free agents this offseason for the Sox. There are Marco Scutaro, Ortiz, Jason Varitek, JD Drew, Tim Wakefield, Hideki Okajima, and Jonathon Papelbon. Of those players, only Ortiz and Papelbon would be worth bringing back in. This leaves the door open for Jose Iglesias at shortstop, Ryan Lavarnway at catcher, Ryan Kalish in right field, and a couple of players in the bullpen. The Red Sox were nothing more than a bunch of high priced players who simply went through the motions. While the steady influence and calming nature of veteran leadership is valuable during the closely contested games and the playoffs, it takes youthful exuberance to get a team to play with energy during the dog days of the season. The Sox have been lacking that for a long time, and it has proven to be a major detriment. Bring in some of the kids in AAA, instead of blowing money on high priced players that do not fit.
The Sox just need to do the preceding four things and they will be back to where they were during 2004 and 2007 – winning championships. However, that would require the Sox to actually focus on baseball moves, instead of acquiring players that the Pink Hat community will like. Naturally, this process would be about as popular with them as it would be if someone collected every copy of ‘Sweet Caroline’ and blew them up Disco Demolition style. So it will not happen. Why fix the problem when the park is filled with happy slobs that will pay $10 for a beer, just for the experience of being at Fenway?
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Defending Jose Reyes
Today, during the 2011 finale for the New York Mets, Jose Reyes got a bunt single in his first at bat. He then immediately took himself out of the game, knowing full well that the 2011 NL Batting Title was in hand. Naturally, Mets fans (all five of them) are regarding this with outrage, infuriated that he would disregard their desire to see them and that he would show such little regard for the organization.
Look at this from Reyes’ point of view. This is his contract year, and he will be one of the marques free agents available. He has a unique skillset with his deadly speed and he plays at a premium position. After seeing the contract that Carl Crawford received in the offseason, he is angling to get something comparable. While Reyes does have injury issues, he now has something that Crawford does not – a batting title. Reyes is looking to get paid, pure and simple.
Meanwhile, Mets fans are whining that he is disrespecting the organization with his actions. What they are conveniently forgetting is that the Mets disrespected him first. Remember when Wilpon went on that rant about Reyes? He made the best player on his failure of a ballclub the target of his ire, saying the he does not deserve to get paid. Meanwhile, he has several fine examples of carbon based wastage on the payroll in Jason Bay, Angel Pagan, K-Rod (at the time), or Oliver Perez. But no, he singled out the best offensive player on the team, and it is not even close (Reyes has a WAR of 5.8. The next closest hitter on the team that is still there is Daniel Murphy at 1.9).
Respect is a two way street. Reyes was disrespected by ownership and by the Mets front office. Now, he is positioning himself to get a better contract. If the Mets had anything resembling baseball acumen, they would have locked him up and built the team around what he can provide them. However, they alienated the only reason people have to go out to that ballpark. Reyes is as good as gone, and the Mets will have absolutely nothing on offense next year. Forget any notion that they can spend in free agency; they still have the Madoff mess to deal with and possibly pay for. Where do the reinforcements come from then?
Jose Reyes did what was the right thing for Jose Reyes. Professional sports, the players, coaches, and even the owners, are nothing more than a collection of mercenaries. Nothing more, nothing less. They sell themselves to the highest bidders, maximizing the brief time that they can make maximum money in a child’s game. Do not romantize it. Accept it for what it is. And then realize that Jose Reyes is not at fault.
Look at this from Reyes’ point of view. This is his contract year, and he will be one of the marques free agents available. He has a unique skillset with his deadly speed and he plays at a premium position. After seeing the contract that Carl Crawford received in the offseason, he is angling to get something comparable. While Reyes does have injury issues, he now has something that Crawford does not – a batting title. Reyes is looking to get paid, pure and simple.
Meanwhile, Mets fans are whining that he is disrespecting the organization with his actions. What they are conveniently forgetting is that the Mets disrespected him first. Remember when Wilpon went on that rant about Reyes? He made the best player on his failure of a ballclub the target of his ire, saying the he does not deserve to get paid. Meanwhile, he has several fine examples of carbon based wastage on the payroll in Jason Bay, Angel Pagan, K-Rod (at the time), or Oliver Perez. But no, he singled out the best offensive player on the team, and it is not even close (Reyes has a WAR of 5.8. The next closest hitter on the team that is still there is Daniel Murphy at 1.9).
Respect is a two way street. Reyes was disrespected by ownership and by the Mets front office. Now, he is positioning himself to get a better contract. If the Mets had anything resembling baseball acumen, they would have locked him up and built the team around what he can provide them. However, they alienated the only reason people have to go out to that ballpark. Reyes is as good as gone, and the Mets will have absolutely nothing on offense next year. Forget any notion that they can spend in free agency; they still have the Madoff mess to deal with and possibly pay for. Where do the reinforcements come from then?
Jose Reyes did what was the right thing for Jose Reyes. Professional sports, the players, coaches, and even the owners, are nothing more than a collection of mercenaries. Nothing more, nothing less. They sell themselves to the highest bidders, maximizing the brief time that they can make maximum money in a child’s game. Do not romantize it. Accept it for what it is. And then realize that Jose Reyes is not at fault.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
The Problem With The Cubs
The previous week, the Cubs finally got around to firing Jim Hendry. This was a move that needed to be done a long time ago, yet the Cubs showed a lot of patience and leeway with someone who displayed an amazing amount of gross incompetence at his position.
During his tenure, Hendry had a habit of overpaying players based on their prime years, or players coming off of career years. Unfortunately, those prime years were often on other teams. Here are a few of the contracts that he signed players to:
So, why do the Cubs embrace their status as losers? Hell, sportscasters refer to them as the ‘Lovable Losers’ on a continual basis. Despite this, their fans do not care. Wrigley is packed almost every night, as the Cubs fans seem to treat it as a bar with the world’s most expensive cover charge. The baseball game is secondary – it’s about sitting on the bleachers and drinking beer with a few friends. They would be better served just doing that at a bar with the game on the television. Why should management change anything, when the ballpark is filled all the time?
If the Cubs are serious about building a contender, they need to change this mentality immediately. They need respected baseball people in decision making positions that understand what it takes to win. They need a general manager that is intelligent, capable of evaluating players and personnel, and is willing to build up their farm system. They need a manager that will change the culture of the clubhouse and make the players into winners. In short, they need to stop being the Cubs.
However, this will not happen. The Cubs will replace Jim Hendry with someone else equally incompetent. Someone like Omar Minaya. Enjoy another 100 years without a title, Cubs fans. Ownership doesn’t care enough to bring you one.
During his tenure, Hendry had a habit of overpaying players based on their prime years, or players coming off of career years. Unfortunately, those prime years were often on other teams. Here are a few of the contracts that he signed players to:
- Alfonso Soriano – 8 years, $136Million, no-trade clause
- Kosuke Fukudome – 4 years, $48Million, no-trade clause that he was able to get Fukudome to waive
- Milton Bradley – 3 years, $30Million
- Jacque Jones – 3 years, $15Million
- Jason Marquis – 3 years, $21Million
- Carlos Zambrano – 5 years, $91.5Million, no-trade clause
- Carlos Pena – 1 year, $10Million
So, why do the Cubs embrace their status as losers? Hell, sportscasters refer to them as the ‘Lovable Losers’ on a continual basis. Despite this, their fans do not care. Wrigley is packed almost every night, as the Cubs fans seem to treat it as a bar with the world’s most expensive cover charge. The baseball game is secondary – it’s about sitting on the bleachers and drinking beer with a few friends. They would be better served just doing that at a bar with the game on the television. Why should management change anything, when the ballpark is filled all the time?
If the Cubs are serious about building a contender, they need to change this mentality immediately. They need respected baseball people in decision making positions that understand what it takes to win. They need a general manager that is intelligent, capable of evaluating players and personnel, and is willing to build up their farm system. They need a manager that will change the culture of the clubhouse and make the players into winners. In short, they need to stop being the Cubs.
However, this will not happen. The Cubs will replace Jim Hendry with someone else equally incompetent. Someone like Omar Minaya. Enjoy another 100 years without a title, Cubs fans. Ownership doesn’t care enough to bring you one.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
A Tale of Two Milestone
When Derek Jeter was staring down 3000 hits, it was practically impossible to avoid coverage of his quest. Whenever one turned on ESPN, looked at a sports website, or listened to a baseball game, there was Jeter. It got to a point where it almost seemed as though it was a part of his contract that he needed to be mentioned everywhere. Of course, if it was, Alex Rodriguez would have negotiated a clause in his contract where he needed to be mentioned more than Jeter.
Meanwhile, there was another player marching towards a milestone. In fact, the milestone that he was chasing was more exclusive than getting to 3000 hits. While Jeter became the 28th player to get 3000 hits, only seven people had gotten to this other feat. Yet, due to the low profile approach to the game the player has, very little attention was paid to his quest. The player? Jim Thome. The milestone? 600 home runs.
With a two home run game last night, Thome became the eighth player to get to 600 home runs for a career. His name now joins players like Mays, Ruth, Aaron, Griffey, Bonds, A-Rod, and Sosa. Yet, it seems as though no one cares. Why is this?
There are a number of reasons for this. First, Thome never really captured the imagination of America. He has only been an All-Star five times over his twenty year career. He has never finished higher than fourth in the MVP vote. He has played for teams that aren’t exactly constantly on television with the Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Dodgers, and Twins. His peak was during the height of the steroid era, where he was being overshadowed by players like Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and A-Rod. He just isn’t an exciting player.
Secondly, there is the entire steroid era. Thome has never been linked to PEDs, but he played during that era. Baseballs were leaving the yard with amazing frequency. In fact, three of the players he joins in the 600 home run club have been linked to steroids, and one is an admitted user. Yet Thome was never hauled in front of Congress, was never the focus of a smear campaign headed by Major League Baseball, and just destroyed the ol’ horsehide with regularity.
This actually leads to the third reason. Due to the steroid era, people are jaded with home run hitters. Remember the old baseball ad stating ‘Chicks dig the long ball’? Maybe they did back in the day, but now people just expect them to happen. Over the past decade, five players joined the 600 home run club. Meanwhile, only three players have joined the 3000 hit club in the same time frame. The oversaturation of the home run in baseball has led people to think that 3000 hits are a more difficult accomplishment to get to, when that is simply not the case.
When Derek Jeter got to 3000 hits, you could not escape the coverage. Meanwhile, Jim Thome got to 600 home runs to a collective yawn. It’s unfortunate that a player who did things the right way is not getting the due he deserves.
Meanwhile, there was another player marching towards a milestone. In fact, the milestone that he was chasing was more exclusive than getting to 3000 hits. While Jeter became the 28th player to get 3000 hits, only seven people had gotten to this other feat. Yet, due to the low profile approach to the game the player has, very little attention was paid to his quest. The player? Jim Thome. The milestone? 600 home runs.
With a two home run game last night, Thome became the eighth player to get to 600 home runs for a career. His name now joins players like Mays, Ruth, Aaron, Griffey, Bonds, A-Rod, and Sosa. Yet, it seems as though no one cares. Why is this?
There are a number of reasons for this. First, Thome never really captured the imagination of America. He has only been an All-Star five times over his twenty year career. He has never finished higher than fourth in the MVP vote. He has played for teams that aren’t exactly constantly on television with the Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Dodgers, and Twins. His peak was during the height of the steroid era, where he was being overshadowed by players like Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and A-Rod. He just isn’t an exciting player.
Secondly, there is the entire steroid era. Thome has never been linked to PEDs, but he played during that era. Baseballs were leaving the yard with amazing frequency. In fact, three of the players he joins in the 600 home run club have been linked to steroids, and one is an admitted user. Yet Thome was never hauled in front of Congress, was never the focus of a smear campaign headed by Major League Baseball, and just destroyed the ol’ horsehide with regularity.
This actually leads to the third reason. Due to the steroid era, people are jaded with home run hitters. Remember the old baseball ad stating ‘Chicks dig the long ball’? Maybe they did back in the day, but now people just expect them to happen. Over the past decade, five players joined the 600 home run club. Meanwhile, only three players have joined the 3000 hit club in the same time frame. The oversaturation of the home run in baseball has led people to think that 3000 hits are a more difficult accomplishment to get to, when that is simply not the case.
When Derek Jeter got to 3000 hits, you could not escape the coverage. Meanwhile, Jim Thome got to 600 home runs to a collective yawn. It’s unfortunate that a player who did things the right way is not getting the due he deserves.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Don't Go Away Mad, Just Go Away
It was time for the annual Carlos Zambrano meltdown, and he certainly didn’t disappoint.
In typical napalm fashion, Zambrano got lit up by the Atlanta Braves, surrendering five home runs in 4 1/3 innings pitched. Following back to back home runs by the white hot Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman, Zambrano threw consecutive pitches at Chipper Jones. However, since Jones was not standing directly at the center of the plate, he missed on both accounts, with his final pitch going to the backstop. Naturally, Zambrano was tossed from the game.
That’s where the fun began. Typically Mad Carlos takes out his frustrations on the Gatorade cooler, teammates, or his dog. This time, it seems that the anger management classes have been working, since he didn’t feel a need to take a bat to his surroundings. No, he simply went into the locker room, cleaned out his locker, told locker room attendants and the training staff that he was retiring, and left before the end of the game.
This is just the latest in the litany of Mad Carlos actions. In the past, he has had such notable transgressions as referring to his team as a cast of AAA players (June 4 of this year) and getting into a fight with Derrek Lee on June 25, 2010. All of this can be yours for the low price of $91.5Million over five years, with $18Million due next year, the last of the contract he signed in 2007. And people wonder why the Cubs won’t win with Jim Hendry in charge?
For this latest issue, Zambrano has been suspended thirty days without pay and placed on the restricted list. Naturally, the Player’s Union is going to file a grievance for the ‘severity’ of the punishment, since forcing Zambrano to take responcibility for his actions just doesn’t make any sense. In all actuality, the punishment is probably too lenient. The Cubs should suspend him for the rest of the season without pay, then release him in the offseason. Call it addition by subtraction, since there cannot be anyone in the clubhouse willing to tolerate his childish behavior any longer.
In order for the Cubs to finally get around to breaking the ‘Curse of the Billy Goat’, they need to clean house. First to go should be Carlos Zambrano, followed shortly thereafter by the buffoon that gave him that contract. Get people in there that know how to run an organization, develop players, and actually know not to sign confirmed nutjobs to long term contracts. It would be one thing if this was his first time doing so, but who can forget the three year deal for Milton Bradley? What, Carl Everett and Marty Bergen weren’t answering their phones that day?
Now is the time to rid themselves of one mistake. It’s time to tell Carlos Zambrano not to go away mad, but to just go away.
In typical napalm fashion, Zambrano got lit up by the Atlanta Braves, surrendering five home runs in 4 1/3 innings pitched. Following back to back home runs by the white hot Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman, Zambrano threw consecutive pitches at Chipper Jones. However, since Jones was not standing directly at the center of the plate, he missed on both accounts, with his final pitch going to the backstop. Naturally, Zambrano was tossed from the game.
That’s where the fun began. Typically Mad Carlos takes out his frustrations on the Gatorade cooler, teammates, or his dog. This time, it seems that the anger management classes have been working, since he didn’t feel a need to take a bat to his surroundings. No, he simply went into the locker room, cleaned out his locker, told locker room attendants and the training staff that he was retiring, and left before the end of the game.
This is just the latest in the litany of Mad Carlos actions. In the past, he has had such notable transgressions as referring to his team as a cast of AAA players (June 4 of this year) and getting into a fight with Derrek Lee on June 25, 2010. All of this can be yours for the low price of $91.5Million over five years, with $18Million due next year, the last of the contract he signed in 2007. And people wonder why the Cubs won’t win with Jim Hendry in charge?
For this latest issue, Zambrano has been suspended thirty days without pay and placed on the restricted list. Naturally, the Player’s Union is going to file a grievance for the ‘severity’ of the punishment, since forcing Zambrano to take responcibility for his actions just doesn’t make any sense. In all actuality, the punishment is probably too lenient. The Cubs should suspend him for the rest of the season without pay, then release him in the offseason. Call it addition by subtraction, since there cannot be anyone in the clubhouse willing to tolerate his childish behavior any longer.
In order for the Cubs to finally get around to breaking the ‘Curse of the Billy Goat’, they need to clean house. First to go should be Carlos Zambrano, followed shortly thereafter by the buffoon that gave him that contract. Get people in there that know how to run an organization, develop players, and actually know not to sign confirmed nutjobs to long term contracts. It would be one thing if this was his first time doing so, but who can forget the three year deal for Milton Bradley? What, Carl Everett and Marty Bergen weren’t answering their phones that day?
Now is the time to rid themselves of one mistake. It’s time to tell Carlos Zambrano not to go away mad, but to just go away.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
The End For Posada
Since the second week of the 2011 season, it has been evident that Jorge Posada had nothing left. His bat was slower, he was no longer able to play in the field, and he was unable to provide anything beyond the mythical ‘veteran leadership’. Even the leadership was redundant on a team built around established veterans.
Yes, Posada started off the year hitting for power, but that was all he was doing. Finally, roughly five months too late, Joe Girardi realized that he could get the same production from a cardboard standup of Posada, and has benched him. Posada has now become just another veteran who hung on too long through his inability to recognize the inevitable – that he no longer has the skill necessary to play major league baseball.
At first glance, Posada seems to be having a passable season. His batting average stands at .230, which is not good, but is also not Adam Dunn. However, he hit .382 in June, has not hit a home run in his last 78 at bats, and cannot play in the field any longer. Presently, he has an OPS+ of 83, his lowest in a season with more than 200 plate appearances. His strikeout to walk rate is almost two to one, far worse than his career average. He is -8 at offensive runs above replacement, and -1.2 in WAR. In short, at the $13.1Million he is making this season, Posada is playing worse than your typical 25th man on the roster.
It rarely ends well for professional athletes when their career is winding down. Bouyed by their past successes, they feel that it is only a slump that they can work their way out of. More often than not, the only time they understand that the reality is that they no longer have the skills to play is when they are shown the door and they are forced into retirement, as the next prospect or free agent veteran is brought in to take their place.
And so, the writing is on the wall for Jorge Posada. Perhaps he can hang around for another year or two at a much lower salary on a team desperate for some of that ‘veteran leadership’. Maybe he will end up catching or being the designated hitter a couple of times a week and providing occasional power off of the bench. But his days of regular playing time are over. The best case scenario for Posada would be for the Yankees to have ‘Jorge Appreciation Day’ and he announces that he is going to retire after the season. This way, he can claim that he went out on his terms, which many athletes are unable to say.
Yes, Posada started off the year hitting for power, but that was all he was doing. Finally, roughly five months too late, Joe Girardi realized that he could get the same production from a cardboard standup of Posada, and has benched him. Posada has now become just another veteran who hung on too long through his inability to recognize the inevitable – that he no longer has the skill necessary to play major league baseball.
At first glance, Posada seems to be having a passable season. His batting average stands at .230, which is not good, but is also not Adam Dunn. However, he hit .382 in June, has not hit a home run in his last 78 at bats, and cannot play in the field any longer. Presently, he has an OPS+ of 83, his lowest in a season with more than 200 plate appearances. His strikeout to walk rate is almost two to one, far worse than his career average. He is -8 at offensive runs above replacement, and -1.2 in WAR. In short, at the $13.1Million he is making this season, Posada is playing worse than your typical 25th man on the roster.
It rarely ends well for professional athletes when their career is winding down. Bouyed by their past successes, they feel that it is only a slump that they can work their way out of. More often than not, the only time they understand that the reality is that they no longer have the skills to play is when they are shown the door and they are forced into retirement, as the next prospect or free agent veteran is brought in to take their place.
And so, the writing is on the wall for Jorge Posada. Perhaps he can hang around for another year or two at a much lower salary on a team desperate for some of that ‘veteran leadership’. Maybe he will end up catching or being the designated hitter a couple of times a week and providing occasional power off of the bench. But his days of regular playing time are over. The best case scenario for Posada would be for the Yankees to have ‘Jorge Appreciation Day’ and he announces that he is going to retire after the season. This way, he can claim that he went out on his terms, which many athletes are unable to say.
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