2011 NFC South Preview

Continuing with our annual football preview, we take a look at the NFC South today. As always, the teams are listed in order of expected finish.

New Orleans Saints: The fact that the Saints were able to make the playoffs with all of the injuries they dealt with last year is nothing less than miraculous. Sean Payton actually prefers to pound the football, regardless of how prolific the Saints passing game is with Drew Brees, Marques Colston, and Robert Meachem. The plethora of injuries suffered at the the running back position led the Saints to have to give significant carries to such luminaries as Julius Jones and Ladell Betts. And yet, they still won eleven games last year. The offensive line received an upgrade with the addition of Olin Kreutz, and Darren Sproles will take over the Reggie Bush job. Despite not being as much of a name, Sproles is probably better at what the Saints want him to do than Bush was. Jeremy Shockley left as a free agent, but the Saints actually upgraded with second year player Jimmy Graham.

The defense had it’s issues last year, particularly stopping the run. This was on full display for the world to see when Marshawn Lynch essentially ran over the entire Saints defense en route to one of the best touchdown runs in NFL history. To rectify this, the Saints drafted Cameron Jordan, who will start from Day 1. New Defensive tackles Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers were signed as free agents, and will make it difficult to move the ball through the middle of the line. The Saints need to put pressure on the quarterback in order to protect their secondary, where the only playmaker they really have is safety Malcolm Jenkins. The linebackers are getting younger, as new faces will be starting around Johnathan Vilma, who has entirely resurrected his career in New Orleans. Expect a dramatic improvement on this side of the ball.

The Saints improved dramatically, and should be considered a legit contender.

2. Atlanta Falcons: There is a lot of hype surrounding the Falcons this year to be a major player in the Super Bowl hunt this year, but that is completely asinine. In theory, the addition of Julio Jones should help Roddy White and Matt Ryan, but he is a major question mark. All throughout college he displayed an ability to make great catches, but would drop passes that hit him in the chest. The only way he can help the offense is by being a deep decoy. Expect Harry Douglas to be a better fit, and to contribute more this year. Tony Gonzalez is still considered by people to be an elite tight end, but his production is closer to Todd Heap than anything else. He is elite in name only. Michael Turner is getting older, and, let’s face it, is due to slow down as he approaches his 30th birthday.

The defense is, again, not as good as advertised. They play a base 4-3 without anything exotic. The coverage packages are conservative and vanilla. For them to be any good, they need to generate a pass rush. John Abraham continued his revival in 2010, but the rest of the line was unable to generate much pressure on the quarterback. Enter Ray Edwards, who signed a lucrative contract as a free agent to attempt to be the answer. This is a risky proposition, as Edwards never posted double digit sacks, despite playing with the Williams Wall and Jared Allen in Minnesota. How will he fare when he becomes the target of double teams? The linebackers, headed by a healthy Curtis Lofton, are solid. Sean Weatherspoon may be a future star at linebacker, but he needs to stay healthy. The secondary is average, and plays assignment based football. Brent Grimes is solid, but Dunta Robinson needs to recapture his form from back in Houston.

The Falcons should be good, but not great. They will be on the cusp for a wild card slot.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs are an extremely young team that had a lot of things go well for them last year. While they managed to win 10 games, only one came against a squad with a winning record, and that was when the Saints sat their players on week 17. The Bucs will need to continue their progression, particularly on offense. Josh Freeman enters his second full season as the starter, and looks like he could be a legitimate starting quarterback. In fact, he seems destined to become another Roethlisberger type, only wihtout the off-field incidents. Rookie free agent LeGarrette Blount came out of nowhere to gain over 1000 yards, depsite only starting eight games. Four round draft pick Mike Williams exploded, leading the Bucs in receiving yards and touchdowns. Kellen Winslow is still a top tight end, but they need to find a second receiver. Arrelious Benn was hurt last year and is expected to get that job, but Dezmon Briscoe may be the eventual starter there.

The defense, much like the offense, needs to progress. The defensive line could start players that are all either rookies or second year players. Mason Foster will take over for Barrett Ruud, who was the Bucs leading tackler last year. However, Ruud did not make a lot of plays, so they drafted what they feel is an upgrade. The secondary still have the venerable Ronde Barber, and talented plays like Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson. However, Jackson is coming off a year long suspension, and Talib has had a number of legal issues since entering the NFL. The biggest issue will be finding leadership. While Barber is still around, someone needs to step up and be ready to take that mantle when he retires. Chances are, it will be Gerard McCoy.

The Bucs will make strides this year, but it will not show in the record. They are, however, a team on the rise.

4. Carolina Panthers: Let’s talk about the positives here first – the running game has three solid backs, and they still have the good Steve Smith. Greg Olsen will provide a nice red zone target, and help the young quarterbacks when they are running for their lives. Now for the rest of the team. Cam Newton managed to parlay one good season in college into being the first pick overall in the 2011 draft, just one year after the Panthers drafted Jimmy Clausen in the second round. That essentially was the equivalent of lighting a draft choice on fire. Clausen may not have been great, but Newton will be worse. Remember Akili Smith? Meet this generations version – Akili 2.0. They have not had a number two receiver since Mushin Muhammad left the first time, and they even brought him back in an attempt to give Steve Smith some help. At this point in time, Smith may as well just sit down on the field during plays to force his way out of town.

The defense has it’s bright spots. Charles Johnson stepped into the void left by Julius Peppers, and performed at a level that was completely unexpected. Terrell McClain could be a beast in the 4-3, and will help the Panthers stuff the run. Also helping the defense is the return of several veterans that had to deal with injuries last year. Thomas Davis may finally be healthy, and Jon Beason is an extremely talented player. The secondary has solid starters, but less than nothing for depth. The Panthers will try to blitz often in passing situations in order to allievate pressure on that group.

The Panthers are not as bad as they were last year, but they are not that much better either. It’s going to be another long year in Carolina.

Examining Day Three of the Draft

The players selected in the last four rounds may not be the biggest names in the draft, but they can be the ones that lead a team to greatness. For an example, just look at Tom Brady going at pick 199. Good teams, such as the Patriots, typically find productive players in these spots year in and year out. Here is a list of some of the players that may very well succeed going forward:

Jacquizz Rodgers to Atlanta in round five. Rodgers, right now, is going to be the change of pace back for the Falcons, spelling Michael Turner and probably getting around ten touches a game. He also will be the heir to Turner when the Falcons move on from him. Turner is 29, and has a history of getting injured. Rodgers may make an impact sooner than people would expect.

Brandon Hogan to Carolina in the fourth round. Hogan is a solid cover corner, which fits the Panthers defense perfectly. The Panthers blitz a lot, leaving their corners in a lot of one on one situations. Also, the Panthers will probably lose at least one of their starting cornerbacks. Hogan might end up as a starter from day one.

Jordan Cameron to the Browns in round four. Cameron is a former basketball player who will provide Colt McCoy a huge target in the red zone. Look for most of Cameron's production to come on third downs, and for him to see a lot of passes in the end zone. He is also a problem to match up against defensively, and may be moved around the formation quite a bit.

Ricky Stanzi to the Chiefs in round five. Stanzi is the quarterback of the future in Kansas City, and may see time this year if Matt Cassel does not progress further this season. Stanzi, if given the chance, will make plays with that team. A lot of teams are going to regret passing on him.

Brandon Fusco to Minnesota in the sixth round. Fusco has great strength, and is an aggressive blocker. He is raw, but will develop quickly and will help open lanes for Adrian Peterson. Fusco has the potential to become a productive starter as a center, and may end up in the upper echelon in a few years.

Marcus Cannon to the Patriots in round five. Cannon is an interesting story. Just prior to the draft, he was diagnosed with Non-Hodgins Lymphoma, from which a full recovery is expected. Before this discovery, he was expected to go int eh second round. Cannon can play either tackle or guard, and helps to solidify an offensive line that had issues last year. He may turn out to be the biggest steal of the draft.

Taiwan Jones to the Raiders in the fourth round. Jones may have been one of the most complete running backs in the draft. While the Raiders do have Darren McFadden, they use a backfield by committee approach, which will give Jones plenty of opportunities to show what he is capable of. He has great speed and solid hands, which will make him the perfect third down back for Oakland.

Keep an eye on these players going forward. There is the potential for all of them to turn out to be steals for their respective teams.

Thoughts From Round One

Before getting into the three best and worst moves from the draft, some observations:

-Before the Carolina Panthers pick, the section that shows the clock on the ESPN coverage said 'error'. Fitting beginning to the Cam Newton era, in my opinion.
-During the Denver Broncos pick, did Roger Goodell forget what year it was?
-Speaking of Goodell, I give him credit for acknowledging the cascade of boos he received. He still may not care about the fans, but at least he won't ignore the reception he gets.
-Julio Jones, good choice with the bowtie.
-Blaine Gabbert doesn't feel like an NFL quarterback after watching his interviews.
-I get the explanation given by Baltimore as to how they let the clock run out, but seriously, was Mike Tice running their draft? They couldn't have had someone on a piece of paper just in case?
-Is Jonathon Baldwin the final Baldwin brother?
-New England made their inevitable trade. I was starting to get worried that it wouldn't happen.

Now to the moves. Three best:
1. Cleveland trading with Atlanta: Yes, they could have used Julio Jones, but the Browns have a ton of holes. One pick was not going to cure that. Instead, they literally got an offer they couldn't refuse for that pick. Even when they traded up, they are still up three picks from that move.
2. Baltimore drafting Jimmy Smith: They very well could have gotten screwed by not turning in a name before time ran out, but Kansas City took a receiver. Smith will give them a shutdown corner, and will allow Baltimore to do the one thing that they couldn't last year - blitz. Even with the questions surrounding his off the field issues, he's going into a locker room where Ray Lewis and company will not tolerate that. Perfect fit.
3. New England trading pick 28: They had pick 33, so whatever they draft there is not going to have that big of a dropoff. With the pieces that the Patriots need (offensive line, pass rushing defense) in abundance in this year's draft, they will still get what they need. The Saints may not be as good as people think they will be next year, as they have a tough schedule. That pick they got from New Orleans could well be in the 15 to 20 range, which is better than the Patriots are expected to draft.

Now, the three worst moves of the first round:
1. Cam Newton first overall: If you are Carolina, what is the value of this pick? Newton is a developmental quarterback who needs a couple of years to learn the NFL game. Also, the Panthers now admit they wasted a second round draft choice last year when they took Jimmy Clausen. Marcell Dareus or A.J. Green would have been better fits for the Panthers. Now, this is nothing against Newton, and I would like him if he went in the second round to a team like Philadelphia, where he could learn from Mike Vick and Andy Reid. Instead, he will get pushed out onto the field too early, and go down as a bust.
2. Falcons trading five picks to the Browns to draft Julio Jones: I get the rationale here, as Jones should finally give Roddy White someone to draw defenders away. However, there are a lot of questions about Jones on the field. He tends to drop the easy passes, as it looks as though he is trying to turn everything into a large gain. Also, the Browns needed him as well. Why would Holmgren trade out of this spot, knowing that Atlanta was looking to take Jones? I think Holmgren saw something he really didn't like, and I'll trust his judgment here.
3. Seattle drafting James Carpenter: Yes, the Seahawks need offensive line help. Yes, Carpenter will be an immediate starter at guard for them. However, there were better players available on the offensive line. Gabe Carimi, who went 29th, would have given the Seahawks a pair of bookends for their line. Better guards would actually be available in round two, and if they liked Carpenter that much, he probably would have been available as well. This pick was an absolute reach.

Thoughts from Day 2 will be up tomorrow morning.