Over the past twenty years, the Toronto Blue Jays have been fairly easy to predict. They have won between 80 and 89 games eleven times in that span, never winning 90 or more. They have won fewer than 70 games just once in that time frame, not counting the strike year. And they have finished fourth in the American League East each of the last four seasons. They have also been a team expected to finally break through over the last couple of season. Is 2012 finally when they break through?
The starting pitchers are a solid, if relatively anonymous, group. Ricky Romero took the next step in his development last season, dropping his ERA below 3.00 (2.92), cutting down his walk rate, and holding steady with strikeouts. He did lucky with his batting average against, but it had been low the previous year as well. Hitters just do not make solid contact against him. Brandon Morrow was inconsistent last season, but he did show some flashes. Also, he improved on his rates, cutting down his walks per nine innings, and actually leading the AL in strikeouts per nine. It is not inconceivable for him to take the next step as well this season. Henderson Alvarez appears to be a very good pitcher in the making. In his brief appearance last season, he had a K/BB ratio of 5:1. He also allowed just over a hit per inning (64 hits in 63.2 innings pitched). Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, and Kyle Drabek will vie for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Cecil is a solid back of the rotation starter. Drabek was a former top prospect, who still has plenty of time to have everything come together. McGowan had not been in the major leagues since 2008 before his brief cameo last season, and will attempt to be the Blue Jays version of Ryan Vogelsong.
The bullpen had several departures, but filled in those holes nicely. Sergio Santos is a low priced closer, who is under control for three more seasons. Darren Oliver and Francisco Cordero were signed as veteran help for an already solid group. Jason Frasor returned from the White Sox, and provides even more depth. The bullpen is a solid, deep group that will be an asset for the Blue Jays.
The outfield is a very solid group, with Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and Colby Rasmus. Bautista proved that 2010 was not a fluke, and is one of the best hitters in the game. He improved his walk rate, cut down on strikeouts, and led the American League in home runs for a second consecutive year. Rasmus, a former top prospect of the Cardinals who clashed with Tony LaRussa, should benefit from a new beginning, and may be able to finally tap into his potential. Snider was hurt for much of last season, but is a solid power hitter. Rajai Davis was brought over as the fourth outfielder, and can play all three outfield positions.
Around the infield, the Blue Jays have a lot of potential. Brett Lawrie will be the everyday third baseman, after exploding onto the scene in his major league debut. He has plenty of talent; the biggest question is whether or not he can keep himself together, as he developed a reputation as a head case in the minors. If he can, Lawrie has the chance to be a top notch third baseman for years to come. Yunel Escobar is a solid player at shortstop, providing decent power, a good batting eye, and solid defense. Kelly Johnson was acquired for Aaron Hill last season, and returns as the starting second baseman. He provides solid power, and good defense. While his batting average was terrible overall, he did hit .270 in 132 plate appearances after coming over to Toronto. He should return to form with a full season as a Blue Jay. Despite back to back mediocre seasons, Adam Lind remains at first base. He does have good power, on the rare occasions when he makes contact. His strikeout percentage did improve from 2010, but his overall statline is a far cry from 2009. This may be his final chance to prove that he can be an everyday player.
J.P. Arencibia provides great power from the catcher position, but not much else. He struck out in just over one out of every three at bats, and is mediocre at best defensively. Jeff Mathis was signed to be the late inning defensive replacement. In the minors, Travis d’Arnaud is waiting to take over should Arencibia not show any improvement. At DH, the Blue Jays have Edwin Encarnacion, who can also play third and first base if needed. While he is a butcher with the glove, he is another solid bat that the Jays can plug into their lineup.
All in all, it appears to be the same situation with the Blue Jays this year as it has been in years past. They would probably win most of the other divisions in baseball, but are stuck in the brutal AL East. Once the second wild card team is added, then they will have a better chance at the playoffs, but for now, they will remain on the outside looking in.
Showing posts with label Jose Bautista. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jose Bautista. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Justin Verlander And The MVP Award
The MVP award is designed to go to, literally, the most valuable player in his league. Somehow, over the years, this has morphed into the most valuable position player. The line of thinking is that, since pitchers have the Cy Young Award, the MVP should go to an every day player. This line of thought is simply asinine.
In the early days of the MVP award, the voters felt the same. Pitchers would routinely be voted as MVP’s, right on through the mid-1940′s. Then, something in the thought process of the voters changed. This was even back before the advent of the Cy Young, so they did not even have ‘their award’. In fact, the only time a pitcher won MVP between 1945 and 1986 was back in 1968, when Bob Gibson and Denny McClain both won MVP. This was mainly because no one else was even close to being worthy.
Lately, however, the way that awards are voted on has changed. The sabermetric community has brought along new statistics designed to prove a player’s true value to their team, while devaluing the old standby categories, such as wins and RBI. This become most evident back in 2009, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award, despite winning only 16 games. Then in 2010, Felix Hernandez finished 13-12, but was voted the Cy Young. Both players deserved the awards, not by conventional thinking, but by measuring their performance differently.
This train of thought had not continued along to the MVP ballot however. Then along came Justin Verlander, and his fabulous 2011 season. Not only did Verlander run away with the Cy Young, but he also managed to become Justin Verlander – MVP. Verlander is the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley back in 1992. Looking at the WAR statistic, Verlander tied Jose Bautista at 8.5. Bautista, playing for the also ran Blue Jays, finished third in the balloting.
Verlander was, by far, the most valuable player to his team’s success in a non-statistical way as well. Take Verlander off of the Tigers, and they are a third place team. Take Jacoby Ellsbury off the Red Sox, and they still do not make the playoffs. Take Bautista off the Blue Jays, they still do not make it to the playoffs. Verlander meant far more to his team’s success; which, by definition, makes him the most valuable player.
Now, people will argue that, as Verlander pitched in only 34 games, he is not as valuable as Ellsbury, who played in 158 games. This theory is easily debunked. Ellsbury had a total of 718 plate appearances, while Verlander faced 969 batters. Verlander had, by that measurement, 251 more chances to affect the game than Ellsbury did. Factoring in fielding, Ellsbury had 50 chances, while Ellsbury had 394. When adding plate appearances and total chances for Ellsbury, the total is 1112. Verlander had 1019. The difference of 93 is less than one ball per game. Games played truly has no bearing on who is most valuable, especially this year.
The Most Valuable Player is not always a position player. Hopefully this vote shows that people are beginning to realize that.
In the early days of the MVP award, the voters felt the same. Pitchers would routinely be voted as MVP’s, right on through the mid-1940′s. Then, something in the thought process of the voters changed. This was even back before the advent of the Cy Young, so they did not even have ‘their award’. In fact, the only time a pitcher won MVP between 1945 and 1986 was back in 1968, when Bob Gibson and Denny McClain both won MVP. This was mainly because no one else was even close to being worthy.
Lately, however, the way that awards are voted on has changed. The sabermetric community has brought along new statistics designed to prove a player’s true value to their team, while devaluing the old standby categories, such as wins and RBI. This become most evident back in 2009, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award, despite winning only 16 games. Then in 2010, Felix Hernandez finished 13-12, but was voted the Cy Young. Both players deserved the awards, not by conventional thinking, but by measuring their performance differently.
This train of thought had not continued along to the MVP ballot however. Then along came Justin Verlander, and his fabulous 2011 season. Not only did Verlander run away with the Cy Young, but he also managed to become Justin Verlander – MVP. Verlander is the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley back in 1992. Looking at the WAR statistic, Verlander tied Jose Bautista at 8.5. Bautista, playing for the also ran Blue Jays, finished third in the balloting.
Verlander was, by far, the most valuable player to his team’s success in a non-statistical way as well. Take Verlander off of the Tigers, and they are a third place team. Take Jacoby Ellsbury off the Red Sox, and they still do not make the playoffs. Take Bautista off the Blue Jays, they still do not make it to the playoffs. Verlander meant far more to his team’s success; which, by definition, makes him the most valuable player.
Now, people will argue that, as Verlander pitched in only 34 games, he is not as valuable as Ellsbury, who played in 158 games. This theory is easily debunked. Ellsbury had a total of 718 plate appearances, while Verlander faced 969 batters. Verlander had, by that measurement, 251 more chances to affect the game than Ellsbury did. Factoring in fielding, Ellsbury had 50 chances, while Ellsbury had 394. When adding plate appearances and total chances for Ellsbury, the total is 1112. Verlander had 1019. The difference of 93 is less than one ball per game. Games played truly has no bearing on who is most valuable, especially this year.
The Most Valuable Player is not always a position player. Hopefully this vote shows that people are beginning to realize that.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Jose Bautista's Improbable Journey
The rise of Jose Bautista from continual afterthought to power hitting monster is quite the interesting one. Bautista was drafted in the 20th round of the 2000 amateur draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He toiled in the minors for three years, never rising higher than A ball. His best season came in 2002, when he hit .301 with 14 home runs and 57 RBI. Throughout his minor league career, he struck out more than he walked, had mediocre power numbers, really didn't have a set position.
In 2004, Bautista racked up more miles than an airline pilot. He was selected by the Baltimore Orioles in the Rule V Draft, at which point in time he was considered their 12th best prospect. At the time, Baseball America said in their Prospect Handbook that “Bautista has a quick bat and can catch up to the best fastballs. His power potential is his best tool.” Still, he was not an elite talent.
Since Bautista was a Rule V draftee, Baltimore had to keep him on the Major League roster, or waive him. After 16 games and 12 plate appearances, on June 3rd, they placed him on waivers. The Tampa Bay Rays picked him up, where he logged 12 games and 15 plate appearances. Failing to impress the Tampa front office, he was sold to the Kansas City Royals on June 28th. With the Royals, he logged 13 games and 26 plate appearances. In those plate appearances, he struck out 12 times. Thoroughly unimpressed, the Royals traded Bautista to the New York Mets for Justin Huber on July 30th. Bautista never actually suited up for the Mets, as he was traded with Ty Wigginton and minor leaguer Matt Peterson back to Pittsburgh, in exchange for Kris Benson (and his wife) and Jeff Keppinger later the same day. Bautista would spend the rest of the year in Pittsburgh, where he would get another 43 plate appearances, and striking out 18 times. With all of these transactions, Bautista became the first, and only, player to be on five different teams in one season.
In 2005, Bautista spent most of 2005 in the minors, playing primarily in AA, where he hit .283 with 23 home runs. In 2006 and 2007, Bautista stuck with the Pirates, playing as a super utility player in 2006, and the primary third baseman in 2007. Then came 2008. He started off as Pittsburgh's primary third baseman, but the organization lost faith in him after he struggled to hit .242 with only 12 home runs. Frustrated, the Pirates acquired Andy LaRoche, then sent Bautista down to AAA. Finally, on August 21st, he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays, who sent Robinzon Diaz over to complete the trade on the 25th.
2009 appeared to be just like every other season for Bautista. He played in left, right, and at third for the Blue Jays, showing very little of the power potential that made him a mid-level prospect. He appeared that he was simply a utility player, someone that would never quite reach his projections. Then, in September 2009, Toronto's hitting coach Dwayne Murphy made some adjustments to Bautista's swing. Suddenly, everything clicked, and Bautista would hit 10 home runs in the month of September.
Despite the power surge over the last month of the season, Bautista hit a total of 13 home runs in 2009. Because of this, he was overlooked going in to the 2010 season. From the start, he showed that his production in September was not a fluke, as he started to hit. By May 24, 2010, he had hit 14 home runs. He was selected to the American League All-Star team, and led the AL in home runs with 54, shattering his previous best of 16, set in 2006. He would finish fourth in the MVP vote, and earn his first Silver Slugger award.
This year, Joey Bats as he is now known, is back at it again. Through 37 games, he is leading the AL in home runs again, with 18. In his last 162 games, Bautista has hit 63 home runs. Next on the list is Albert Pujols, who has hit 41.
So, why do people refuse to acknowledge what Bautista is accomplishing? Is it the immediate suspicion that, even though one can plainly see the difference in his swing, that this surge cannot be natural? Is it because he plays in Toronto? Regardless of the reasoning, Bautista's transformation has been nothing short of remarkable. He has gone from being an unknown utility player to a feared slugger in roughly one year. Time to pay attention.
In 2004, Bautista racked up more miles than an airline pilot. He was selected by the Baltimore Orioles in the Rule V Draft, at which point in time he was considered their 12th best prospect. At the time, Baseball America said in their Prospect Handbook that “Bautista has a quick bat and can catch up to the best fastballs. His power potential is his best tool.” Still, he was not an elite talent.
Since Bautista was a Rule V draftee, Baltimore had to keep him on the Major League roster, or waive him. After 16 games and 12 plate appearances, on June 3rd, they placed him on waivers. The Tampa Bay Rays picked him up, where he logged 12 games and 15 plate appearances. Failing to impress the Tampa front office, he was sold to the Kansas City Royals on June 28th. With the Royals, he logged 13 games and 26 plate appearances. In those plate appearances, he struck out 12 times. Thoroughly unimpressed, the Royals traded Bautista to the New York Mets for Justin Huber on July 30th. Bautista never actually suited up for the Mets, as he was traded with Ty Wigginton and minor leaguer Matt Peterson back to Pittsburgh, in exchange for Kris Benson (and his wife) and Jeff Keppinger later the same day. Bautista would spend the rest of the year in Pittsburgh, where he would get another 43 plate appearances, and striking out 18 times. With all of these transactions, Bautista became the first, and only, player to be on five different teams in one season.
In 2005, Bautista spent most of 2005 in the minors, playing primarily in AA, where he hit .283 with 23 home runs. In 2006 and 2007, Bautista stuck with the Pirates, playing as a super utility player in 2006, and the primary third baseman in 2007. Then came 2008. He started off as Pittsburgh's primary third baseman, but the organization lost faith in him after he struggled to hit .242 with only 12 home runs. Frustrated, the Pirates acquired Andy LaRoche, then sent Bautista down to AAA. Finally, on August 21st, he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays, who sent Robinzon Diaz over to complete the trade on the 25th.
2009 appeared to be just like every other season for Bautista. He played in left, right, and at third for the Blue Jays, showing very little of the power potential that made him a mid-level prospect. He appeared that he was simply a utility player, someone that would never quite reach his projections. Then, in September 2009, Toronto's hitting coach Dwayne Murphy made some adjustments to Bautista's swing. Suddenly, everything clicked, and Bautista would hit 10 home runs in the month of September.
Despite the power surge over the last month of the season, Bautista hit a total of 13 home runs in 2009. Because of this, he was overlooked going in to the 2010 season. From the start, he showed that his production in September was not a fluke, as he started to hit. By May 24, 2010, he had hit 14 home runs. He was selected to the American League All-Star team, and led the AL in home runs with 54, shattering his previous best of 16, set in 2006. He would finish fourth in the MVP vote, and earn his first Silver Slugger award.
This year, Joey Bats as he is now known, is back at it again. Through 37 games, he is leading the AL in home runs again, with 18. In his last 162 games, Bautista has hit 63 home runs. Next on the list is Albert Pujols, who has hit 41.
So, why do people refuse to acknowledge what Bautista is accomplishing? Is it the immediate suspicion that, even though one can plainly see the difference in his swing, that this surge cannot be natural? Is it because he plays in Toronto? Regardless of the reasoning, Bautista's transformation has been nothing short of remarkable. He has gone from being an unknown utility player to a feared slugger in roughly one year. Time to pay attention.
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