2011 NFC North Preview

For the fourth of our eight part 2011 NFL preview, we take a look at the NFC North. The teams are listed in order of where we expect them to finish.

 1. Green Bay Packers: Last year, the Packers won the Super Bowl despite getting decimated by injuries all over the place. With the loss of every down back Ryan Grant, they were forced to rely on Aaron Rodgers when a viable alternative never developed. Rodgers delivered, and immediately placed himself in the discussion of top three quarterbacks in the NFL. With a healthy receiving corps now that Jermichael Finley and Donald Driver are back, the explosive Greg Jennings, and the potential breakout candidate James Jones; the offense can only get better. Grant is now going to be in a time share with playoff hero James Starks, adding a top notch running game to the elite passing game.

Usually, when a team is so dominant on one side of the ball, they are deficient on the other (we’re looking at you, Indianapolis Colts). That is simply not the case here. While the losses of Cullen Jenkins and Nick Barnett will hurt, they simply have players waiting in the wings that they will plug in. The line is still deep and quite capable of pressuring the quarterback despite being a 3-4. The linebackers are still a group of playmakers, headlined by Clay Matthews Jr. The secondary can not only play man coverage with the best of the NFL, but are all quite capable at blitzing from the edge.

An already deep team actually got better in the draft, despite having the last pick. This could be another Super Bowl run.

2. Detroit Lions: In theory, the Lions will go only as far as Matthew Stafford can bring them. Unfortunately, Stafford has been injured in each of his first two seasons. Fortunately for the Lions, this simply shows that they may be the deepest of any team at quarterback, as the three Lions QBs totaled 4001 yards, 26 touchdowns, and only 16 interceptions. Of course, it helps to have an absolute stud receiver in Calvin Johnson to throw to, but he has help. Brandon Pettigrew is a solid tight end, and the selection of Titus Young allows Nate Burleson to work the slot, where he is better suited. The biggest question is whether or not Jahvid Best can put together a complete season. He showed flashes of pure brilliance prior to his turf toe injury last year, but he will need to be the playmaker the Lions front office expects him to be.

On defense, the Lions are much improved. Ndamukong Suh may very well be the best defensive tackle at getting to the quarterback since Warren Sapp was in his prime. Adding Nick Fairley along side of him just makes his job that much easier. The defensive ends, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch, are both solid, and will benefit from the one-on-one matchups they will receive. Linebacker, which was a major weakness for the past few years, has been dramatically upgraded. Stephen Tulloch, Justin Durant, and DeAndre Levy are the best trio of linebackers that the Lions have had in years. The secondary finally has something there aside from third year safety Louis Delams. Chris Houston was resigned, and Eric Wright, a very underrated corner, was brought in as the second starter. This defense could be dominant if they stay healthy.
We here at Mr. Dave’s Sports Blog are not afraid to go out on a limb, so here it is – the Lions make the playoffs as the number five seed AND win a playoff game. Get used to Detroit playing good football.

3. Chicago Bears:Last year, the Bears won the division and made the NFC Championship game. That may as well have been in a different century. Statistically, the Bears should have been a nine win team last year, and it is hard to see where they will be much better than that this year. Jay Cutler is back, but does he have the respect of the locker room and the offense after he seemingly quit on them last year? Their offensive line is still a work in progress, and may have more holes than the slice of Swiss cheese on my sandwich. The biggest acquisition on offense was Roy Williams, who did have success with Mike Martz in Detroit, but is still exceedingly overrated. The key to the offense should by Matt Forte, who is a solid runner and pass catcher. Lovie Smith likes to run the ball, and Martz likes to throw to the running back, yet there are times when Forte is forgotten in that offense.

The defense still have a lot of name recognition with Brian Urlacher, Juluis Peppers, and Lance Briggs; but are they really any good? The defense is old, and is more about executing their scheme than reacting and chasing down plays. While the Bears were the second best rushing defense last year, is it truly feasible to expect them to maintain that pace? There is absolutely no depth behind the starters anywhere on this defense, so any time lost to injury will be a major concern.

The Bears are going to drop to the lower half of the division this year, and, if they are not careful, may sink all the way to the bottom.

4. Minnesota Vikings: Coming off the debacle that was last year and Brett Favre, the Vikings are a team that has something to prove. By trading for Donovan McNabb, they not only got seven years younger at quarterback, but brought in someone that personifies that mindset. McNabb will have a chip on his shoulder and will be motivated to show that he can still play after being unceremoniously dumped by the non-genius Mike Shanahan. The passing game is going to be designed to play to his strengths, and feature rollouts, bootlegs, and have McNabb only scan half the field for plays. Sidney Rice was allowed to leave through free agency, making Percy Harvin the de facto number one receiver. Harvin is a playmaker, but may be better suited to his role in the slot, and occasional use out of the backfield. If that happens to be the case, expect the tight ends to get a lot of work this year. And, of course, having a running back the caliber of Adrian Peterson helps alleviate a lot of pressure on the passing game. Now that Peterson appears to be over his early fumbling problems, he is the best back in the game.

Defensively, there is a lot of flux. The entire defensive line is in disarray, as the only starter from Week One last year that will be playing on Opening Day is Jared Allen. Kevin Williams will miss two games from his long-awaited suspension, and Pat Williams and Ray Edwards departed as free agents. The players expected to take their spots are not nearly as talented as their predecessors. Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson are playmakers at linebacker, and Antoine Winfield is one of the better cornerbacks in the game, but they are rather deficient on this side of the ball. The secondary will need the pass rush to re-emerge for them to avoid being torched frequently.

If everything breaks right, the Vikings may be in the hunt for a playoff berth late into December. However, it is more likely that December is all about seeing what Christian Ponder can do behind center.

Should the Bears be looking for another quarterback?

Early in the third quarter of their playoff game against the Green Bay Packers, Jay Cutler left the game with an apparent knee injury. However, at no point did it appear that Cutler actually injured his knee (which they are now claiming is a torn MCL). In fact, when asked directly about it, coach Lovie Smith directly contradicted his statements in back to back questions. When asked what happened, Smith claimed that he took a shot to the knee at the end of the second half. However, when asked a follow up question, Smith said the following: "He hurt his knee and he was out, all right? There's nothing else for me to tell you on that," Smith said. "I don't know exactly when it happened. He couldn't go, and we moved on. Let's go to some other questions, how about that?"

Usually, when someone injures themselves to the severity of what is being claimed about Cutler, they are receiving extensive treatment either on the sidelines or in the locker room. In fact, they are kept off that leg and carted into the locker room more often than not. You definitely don't see them wandering about the sidelines with their head down, with a look of complete apathy.

Cutler, for all of his talent, is not someone that wins football games. He makes stupid decisions with the football, throwing into double and triple coverage because he thinks that his arm is strong enough to get it there. He does not take the safe throws underneath to get the first down, because he is looking for the home run ball every time. He just doesn't have a head for the game. In fact, Jay Cutler is a lot like Brett Favre, only without the great receivers to bail him out for every misguided throw that he makes.

At this point of his career arc, Cutler has a lot of similarities to another quarterback with all of the measurables who could never win - Jeff George. Both possessed strong arms. Both put up gaudy stat lines. Yet, neither have ever been able to take a team to the Super Bowl, or win anything of consequence. The reason? Neither Cutler nor George were capable of making adjustments to their games nor were they capable of actually being a leader of their teams.

Given the fiasco that occurred last night, is it possible that the Bears would go in another direction at quarterback? This year's draft is anticipated to have a lot of solid quarterback prospects. Several big name quarterbacks should be made available by the teams they are presently on. Nothing is guaranteed for Cutler in Chicago right now.

Yesterday proved that teams cannot win without a leader at the quarterback position. Jay Cutler is not a leader. The Bears will not make the Super Bowl until they can fix that situation.

The end of an era

Today, Brett Favre's consecutive start streak ended at 297 games when he was listed as inactive with a sprained SC joint. Thus far through the 2010 season, he had played with a broken foot and severe elbow tendinitis. He has taken shot after shot after shot behind an offensive line that essentially best resembled a turnstile this season. There were points in time when Favre could barely walk, yet still rose up each time. Now, some of this may have been an overdramatization, since he very much enjoys being the center of attention, yet somehow these hits may have hurt more than even he let on.

Watching the Vikings struggle this season, one has to wonder how often Favre questioned his decision to return for one final year. He did not get along with his coach, the now deposed Brad Childress. His primary option at receiver had a severe hip injury, and was not even on the field for most of the season. He seemed a step slower, and never got in sync with the players around him. The receiving corps was a bit of a revolving door, with Sidney Rice hurt, Greg Camarillo being brought in right at the end of training camp, Randy Moss being there for a month, and Percy Harvin's ongoing migraine issues.

If this is truly the end for Favre and he does not play any further this season (as of now, there is talk of placing him on the injured reserve list), what will his legacy be? Some will remember him as the Ol' Gunslinger, who was out there firing the football around and having fun with his friends like it was an afternoon pick up game. Others will remember the narcissistic soap opera that was his waffling between being retired or being unretired, which stretched over four offseasons. Still others will recall how he is the main reason as to why two head coaches (Childress and Eric Mangini) got fired from their jobs.

When looking at Favre's legacy, it is important to remember all of this about him. It is also important to recognize his accomplishments, both positively (most touchdowns in a career, most career passing yards, the multiple MVP's) and negatively (most career interceptions, most career turnovers). Yes, Favre accomplished a lot of milestones and some achieved some potentially unbreakable records. Yet, how many of them are seemingly out of reach due to his ability to avoid injury (or his ego forcing him to continue playing) and the sheer length of time that he did play? To draw a parallel, Nolan Ryan has a lot of the same going for him. A lot of positive milestones (most strikeouts in a season and all-time, 300+ wins, seven no-hitters) and negative milestones (most career walks, never won a Cy Young award). Yes, both were great, but both played for a long time and managed to compile statistics just from the volume of games played.

In the end, Favre's last pass (fittingly intercepted) may have been thrown, and he is now set to limp off into the sunset, until the point in time when he arrives in Canton to wear the mustard yellow blazer signifying his due place in the NFL Hall of Fame. When recalling his remarkable career, don't just focus on the positive, but keep in mind the full portrait of this unique player who seemed incapable of receiving criticism from the pundits. Perhaps that is his greatest legacy of all.