Boston Red Sox 2012 Season Preview

Following a collapse that left many diehard Red Sox fans recalling the days prior to 2004, the Sox made wholesale changes – to the front office and coaching staff. Gone are the ‘Boy Wonder’ Theo Epstein, having been traded to the Chicago Cubs to take over as the team’s President of Baseball Operations. The Sox also got rid their most successful manager in the history of the franchise in Terry Francona. In their place, the Sox hired The Official Puppet of Larry Lucchino in Ben Cherington as GM; and Bobby Valentine as manager, a man who is better known for his ability to generate goodwill, provide a quality soundbite, and wear Groucho Marx glasses than for his baseball acumen.

These replacements would be somewhat palatable if the Red Sox did anything this offseason to upgrade their roster. Anything at all. However, they did the polar opposite, letting Jonathon Papelbon walk in free agency, trading their starting shortstop for minor league filler, and not addressing any of the holes on their roster. What, exactly, was the plan?

The starting rotation returns Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett. Buchholz was injured most of last year, so there is no guarantee that he will return to form in 2012. Lester and Beckett both produced statistics that looked good at the end of the year, but were also primarily responcible for the Sox epic collapse of 2012. Behind them, a group of has-beens in Vincente Padilla, Carlos Silva, John Maine and Aaron Cook, never-weres in Felix Doubrant and Tom Gorzelanny, and converted relievers in Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves. As maligned as John Lackey and Diasuke Matsuzaka have been, they are actually much better than the corpses that the Sox are looking to trot out two out of every five starts.

The bullpen could be decent, however. Even though they lost Papelbon, they traded for Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon, both of whom have closing experience. If Bailey can remain healthy all season, they have an All-Star closer at an extremely affordable price. However, the key with him is his ability to stay healthy. If Bard goes back to the bullpen, the combo of he and Melancon will make the seventh and eight innings fairly worry free. However, the rest of the bullpen is in disarray. Bobby Jenks dealt with a potentially life threating situation with his spine this offseason, and there are doubts as to whether or not he will pitch again. Matt Albers looked solid at the start of last season, but wore down as hitters remembered that he was, in fact, the pitcher that bombed in Baltimore in recent history. The rest of the bullpen will consist of whatever arms do not stick in the rotation, none of which appear to be viable major league options.

In the outfield, center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury came back from an injury plagued 2010 with a vengeance, finally capitalizing on his potential. However, questions remain as to whether or not he can remain healthy, and if he can put up similar numbers consistently. Left field is manned by Carl Crawford, who was such a disappointment last year that team owner John Henry went out of his way to state that he was against the signing from the start. In right field, the often injured J.D. Drew has departed, as has the heir apparent in Josh Reddick. By all appearances, the Sox are hoping to cobble the position together with Cody Ross, Mark Sweeney, and possibly Ryan Kalish. None of these options really inspire any confidence.

Shortstop and third base have the potential to be disasters for the Sox. Shortstop Marco Scutaro was dumped, apparently for financial reasons. In his place, the Sox have the triumvirate of Mike Aviles, Jose Iglasies, and their big free agent signing – Nick Punto. If Aviles remains true to form and produces in even numbered years, then they will be decent there. Otherwise, this could be a black hole in the lineup. At third base is Kevin Youkilis, a solid player when healthy. However, Youkilis has been injured over the past two seasons, and missed a significant amount of time last year. One has to wonder if his body can hold up to playing third base at this stage of his career. If not, uber-prospect Will Middlebrooks had better live up to his billing, or else the Sox offense will be in serious trouble.

On the plus side, first and second base are solid. Adrian Gonzalez produced a monster season, ranking in the top ten in the American League in most meaningful offensive categories while providing Gold Glove caliber defense. He will anchor the lineup for years to come. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia provides a bit of everything for Boston, bringing surprising power, underrated speed, and leadership qualities that the Sox are in desperate need of. At DH, David Ortiz appears to have hit a second wind in his career, and is back for another season.

If everything turns out perfect for the Red Sox, they can contend for a World Series berth. However, it is even more likely that the Sox could be on the outside looking in. Enjoy the memories of the Terry Francona Era, because the days of being a perennial contender appear to be just about done.

It's Still Early

In this culture of instant analysis and overreaction, society has a tendency to have kneejerk reactions to daily events. With a sport that is almost daily, such as baseball, these reactions can be fairly entertaining at times, and at other times pathetic. As of the time that this is being written, teams have played only one of two games, yet people will still react as though it is game 160.

For instance, a quick look at the standings shows that the Royals, Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates all have better records than the Red Sox. Does this mean that the Sox are destined to have a terrible year while those four teams contend for a pennant? No. It means that the Sox lost their opener, while the Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates won theirs. The Royals have split their first two games against the Angels. Yet, after that defeat, Sox fans are, in a fashion typical to our society, reacting as if it is the end of the world. So, as a public service, the following message is being broadcast here on this blog: IT'S ONE GAME!!!! It's not the end of the world. If the Sox are under .500 after July, then feel free to panic.

To further prove this point, look at some performances thus far. Albert Pujols has grounded into three double plays and does not have a hit. Jon Lester gave up three home runs in a game for the first time in his career. He also did not strike out a batter for the first time since 2008. Brett Myers, who has a career mark of 7.46 K's/9, also did not strike out a batter in his start. On the other side of the coin, J.P. Arencibia is leading the American League in batting average (.750), home runs (2), and RBI (5). John Buck and Neil Walker lead the National League in RBI with four. Ramon Hernandez leads baseball in batting average, hitting .800 presently.

Does any of this mean that Pujols and Lester are going to have terrible seasons? Do these statistics mean that Arencibia is going to win the Triple Crown? Is Neil Walker going to keep up his 648 RBI pace? The answer is a resounding NO.

Early season baseball is great for seeing unlikely people at the top of leaderboards and for seeing surprising starts. But remember, everything evens out. There is a reason why Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland A's, maintains that the first two months are for evaluation - because nothing is proven yet. Baseball is about patience. Stay patient with your team and favorite players, and enjoy the season. If they are performing terribly around June/July, then it's time to panic.