A Tale of Two Milestone

When Derek Jeter was staring down 3000 hits, it was practically impossible to avoid coverage of his quest. Whenever one turned on ESPN, looked at a sports website, or listened to a baseball game, there was Jeter. It got to a point where it almost seemed as though it was a part of his contract that he needed to be mentioned everywhere. Of course, if it was, Alex Rodriguez would have negotiated a clause in his contract where he needed to be mentioned more than Jeter.

Meanwhile, there was another player marching towards a milestone. In fact, the milestone that he was chasing was more exclusive than getting to 3000 hits. While Jeter became the 28th player to get 3000 hits, only seven people had gotten to this other feat. Yet, due to the low profile approach to the game the player has, very little attention was paid to his quest. The player? Jim Thome. The milestone? 600 home runs.
With a two home run game last night, Thome became the eighth player to get to 600 home runs for a career. His name now joins players like Mays, Ruth, Aaron, Griffey, Bonds, A-Rod, and Sosa. Yet, it seems as though no one cares. Why is this?

There are a number of reasons for this. First, Thome never really captured the imagination of America. He has only been an All-Star five times over his twenty year career. He has never finished higher than fourth in the MVP vote. He has played for teams that aren’t exactly constantly on television with the Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Dodgers, and Twins. His peak was during the height of the steroid era, where he was being overshadowed by players like Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and A-Rod. He just isn’t an exciting player.

Secondly, there is the entire steroid era. Thome has never been linked to PEDs, but he played during that era. Baseballs were leaving the yard with amazing frequency. In fact, three of the players he joins in the 600 home run club have been linked to steroids, and one is an admitted user. Yet Thome was never hauled in front of Congress, was never the focus of a smear campaign headed by Major League Baseball, and just destroyed the ol’ horsehide with regularity.

This actually leads to the third reason. Due to the steroid era, people are jaded with home run hitters. Remember the old baseball ad stating ‘Chicks dig the long ball’? Maybe they did back in the day, but now people just expect them to happen. Over the past decade, five players joined the 600 home run club. Meanwhile, only three players have joined the 3000 hit club in the same time frame. The oversaturation of the home run in baseball has led people to think that 3000 hits are a more difficult accomplishment to get to, when that is simply not the case.

When Derek Jeter got to 3000 hits, you could not escape the coverage. Meanwhile, Jim Thome got to 600 home runs to a collective yawn. It’s unfortunate that a player who did things the right way is not getting the due he deserves.

The Value Of The Stolen Base

Over the course of baseball's history, five statistics had come to be regarded as the best for evaluating players. They were runs, batting average, home runs, runs batted in, and stolen bases. Now, over the course of the almost 150 years that baseball has been in existence as a professional sport, new ways of looking at players have been developed. Statistics such as OPS+, WAR, and rbat have changed the way that players are viewed now. In fact, sabermetric statistics have been a driving force behind dramatic increases of votes for the Hall of Fame. Players such as Bert Blyleven owe their induction in part to the sabermetric community.

Yet, despite the realization that a statistic such as batting average or RBIs no longer tell the true value of a player, stolen bases persist in the imaginations of baseball fans. Why is this? This seems to be a two part answer. First, the stolen base is a lot rarer now than it was even twenty five years ago, when players such as Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson were consistently at or near the century mark for a season. Second, the stolen base is one of the statistics that count in majority of fantasy leagues, which make players such as Jacoby Ellsbury or Juan Pierre appear more valuable than they are.

Using the win probability statistic, it was determined that from between 1999 and 2002 a stolen base added .018 wins. That is 1.8% for those of you that cannot do math. Meanwhile, a caught stealing subtracted .043 wins, or added the probability of a loss by 4.3%. In order for a stolen base to actually add anything to a team's success, the runner needs to be successful on at least 70% of his attempts.

Meanwhile, a home run adds roughly 10% to a team's win probability statistic. While decidedly old school, Earl Weaver's famous reluctance to steal bases and wait for the three run home run was, in retrospect, actually quite ahead of his time for a way to view the game. The home run adds a lot more to the odds of a team winning than a stolen base does.

Taking the percentages above, let's say that the average major league starting position player hits 15 home runs. He would then add 150% to his team's possible victories. Meanwhile, Juan Pierre in 2010 stole 68 bases while being caught 18 times. This adds up to providing a positive of adding 77.4% to his team's projected ability to win a game. For Pierre to add as much as an average player, he would have needed to steal around 130 bases at the same success rate.

Players such as Pierre, Dexter Fowler, and others who do nothing more than provide speed are often overrated. Ellsbury fell into this category prior to this year, where he has suddenly developed a bit of power to go along with his 50+ stolen base potential. While the stolen base is an exciting play, it is easy to see why as baseball management has changed the way they evaluate players, the pure speed player is practically a dinosaur. Getting on base and being able to move the line along is more valuable than being able to steal 60 bases, but only get on base at a .330 clip, as Pierre did in 2006 (it was actually 58 bases, but the point is still there).

The way of evaluating baseball players has changed a lot. So too should our perceptions of what makes a worthwhile major league player.

Johnny Damon and the Hall of Fame

On Saturday, Johnny Damon just became the 11th player in major league baseball history to record 500 doubles, 100 triples, 200 home runs, and 2500 hits. The previous ten players - George Brett, Goose Goslin, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Willie Mays, Paul Molitor, Stan Musial, Babe Ruth, Robin Yount, and Al Simmons - are all members of the baseball Hall of Fame.

So, this leads into the question - is Damon a Hall of Fame caliber player? Based on the eyeball test, where watching a player gives his value compared to his contemparies, he would seem not to be. Keep in mind, he has only been on two All-Star teams (2002 and 2005) and has never finished higher than 13th on any MVP ballot. On his career rankings, the best he places all-time is with his hit total, which is 72nd, with a present total of 2646.

The list of the top ten players he compares to is also an interesting mix. There is a Hall of Famer in Roberto Alomar, and two players that should make it in, with Tim Raines and Jimmy Ryan. The other seven are Vada Pinson - who is considered the best player not in the Hall, Steve Finley, Willie Davis, Jose Cruz Sr., Mickey Vernon, and Al Oliver. THis is a pretty good list of former players, but no one that truly stands out.

The two things that Damon has going for him are the group that he managed to join on Saturday, and being an intergral part of the Boston Red Sox World Series winning team in 2004. Baseball, being a sport that is truly based in history, is mindful of when players hit special milestones or join exclusive company. Also, being one of the members of the Sox during their curse busting season can only help in the minds of the voters, which will be noticed when Curt Schilling becomes eligable.

For Damon to make it in as a definite, chances are that he will need to put together another couple of years of solid production. However, at this point in his career, he is mainly a designated hitter, as his arm strength and defensive capabilities have decreased dramatically. The question will then be whether or not some team is willing to take on a 38 year old DH with limited power next season.

Right now, Damon seems to be on the outside looking in. However, a couple more solid years of production that move him closer to 3000 hits would do wonders for his case.

Papi For the Hall?

When people think of David Ortiz, they think of the run from 2003 through 2007, where Big Papi may have been the most feared hitter in baseball. With his outgoing, gregarious personality, his larger-than-life persona, and his seemingly uncanny ability to come through in the clutch, Ortiz had become something akin to a god amongst Boston sports fans.

Yet, what has been somehow overlooked through his career is that Ortiz's numbers have reached a point where he may receive legitimate consideration for the Hall of Fame when he retires. As it stands presently, Papi has 1675 hits, 366 home runs, 1213 RBI, a .283 batting average, and an OPS+ of 136. These statistics will only improve, as he is just 35 years old and has at least three more years in him. At that point, he should be around 2000 hits, 430 home runs, and 1400 RBI.

Looking at baseballreference.com, the top 10 players on his comparison chart are interesting. There are only two Hall of Famers amongst them, with Ralph Kiner and Hank Greenburg at 9 and 10. The other eight are Lance Berkman, Paul Konerko, Mo Vaughn, Albert Belle, Derrek Lee, Kent Hrbek, David Justice, and Tim Salmon. None of these eight really strike anyone as a Hall of Fame caliber player, however, this list can change in the next three years.

What Papi has working for his Hall of Fame candidacy is entirely outside the realm of statistics, however. Ortiz has become a legend in the game, in part for his role on the Boston Red Sox World Series winning clubs in 2004 and 2007. He also has gained a reputation as the most feared clutch hitter in baseball, perhaps of all time. When it was close and late and Ortiz came to the dish, it was a must see event. More often than not, he would come through. This is one person whose reputation may exceed what he actually accomplished, and help his case going forward.

Ortiz seems like the type of player who will hang around the ballot for the 15 years he is allotted, then have his fate decided by the Veteran's Committee. Like a Don Mattingly or an Alan Trammell, he will be considered too good to fall off the ballot entirely, but not be good enough to get voted in. However, this could change. If Ortiz manages to get around 2200 hits and 450 home runs, which is an unlikely scenario, his mystique may be sufficient to elevate him to the hall at some point.

Papi will be an interesting case going forward. It will be fun to see if his reputation will outweigh his statistics.

Chasing Saves

It is one of the cardinal rules in fantasy baseball - Thou Shalt Not Chase Saves. It is just as easy to find a pitcher who will get 30 saves in the later rounds of most drafts as it is to take a closer early. In fact, more often than not, several closers will lose their jobs during the season, and their replacements will be found on the waiver wire. Everyone seems to recognize this.

And yet, such logic is lost in Major League Baseball. Teams are constantly overwhelmed by a high total in the saves category, while ignoring the horrific peripheral statistics. Case in point - the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Fernando Rodney, who just lost his spot as closer, was signed to a two year, $11 million dollar contract after the 2009 season. As the closer for Detroit that year, he had 37 saves, good for sixth in the American League that year. That was enough for the Angels to overlook other statistics that would indicate that Rodney really did not have that good of a season, specifically his 1.467 WHiP, his 1.49 K/BB ratio, his 4.40 ERA (which was good for an ERA+ of 104), and his WAR of 0.5 (barely above replacement level). But he got 37 saves!!!!

This is not the first time the Angels have done this. After the 2008 season, they signed Brian Fuentes to a two year, $17.5 million dollar contract. While Fuentes had a much better year than Rodney in his free agent season, the big number that stands out is his 30 saves. He did provide a solid 2009 for the Angels, leading the American League in saves, but lost his job in 2010 and was traded to the Minnesota Twins for a 26 year old minor league pitcher who has never been above AA. Not exactly a great return on investment.

Meanwhile, teams such as the Atlanta Braes and Oakland A's handle the closer position differently. They cycle different pitchers in, and do not spend a lot of money to fill that role. Since 1991, the following pitchers have led Atlanta in saves: Juan Berenguer (1991), Alejandro Pena (1992), Mike Stanton (1993), Greg McMichael (1994), Mark Wohlers (1995-1997), Kerry Ligtenberg (1998), John Rocker (1999-2001), John Smoltz (2002-2004), Chris Reitsma (2005), Bob Wickman (2006, 2007), Mike Gonzalez (2008), Rafael Soriano (2009), and Billy Wagner (2010). All were quite effective for the Braves, and were not nearly the financial investment of the 'top' closers in baseball.

Oakland, since Eckersley left, have had the following pitchers lead their team in saves: Billy Taylor (1996-1999), Jason Isringhausen (2000, 2001), Billy Koch (2002), Keith Foulke (2003), Octovio Dotel (2004), Huston Street (2005, 2006, 2008), Alan Embree (2007), and Andrew Bailey (2009, 2010). While the A's do not have the same level of turnover as the Braves, they still share the same philosophy - do not spend money on closers.

Closers can be found if teams know what to look at when it comes to a pitcher's statistics. Saves is the last thing the front office should be looking at.