The MVP award is designed to go to, literally, the most valuable player in his league. Somehow, over the years, this has morphed into the most valuable position player. The line of thinking is that, since pitchers have the Cy Young Award, the MVP should go to an every day player. This line of thought is simply asinine.
In the early days of the MVP award, the voters felt the same. Pitchers would routinely be voted as MVP’s, right on through the mid-1940′s. Then, something in the thought process of the voters changed. This was even back before the advent of the Cy Young, so they did not even have ‘their award’. In fact, the only time a pitcher won MVP between 1945 and 1986 was back in 1968, when Bob Gibson and Denny McClain both won MVP. This was mainly because no one else was even close to being worthy.
Lately, however, the way that awards are voted on has changed. The sabermetric community has brought along new statistics designed to prove a player’s true value to their team, while devaluing the old standby categories, such as wins and RBI. This become most evident back in 2009, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award, despite winning only 16 games. Then in 2010, Felix Hernandez finished 13-12, but was voted the Cy Young. Both players deserved the awards, not by conventional thinking, but by measuring their performance differently.
This train of thought had not continued along to the MVP ballot however. Then along came Justin Verlander, and his fabulous 2011 season. Not only did Verlander run away with the Cy Young, but he also managed to become Justin Verlander – MVP. Verlander is the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley back in 1992. Looking at the WAR statistic, Verlander tied Jose Bautista at 8.5. Bautista, playing for the also ran Blue Jays, finished third in the balloting.
Verlander was, by far, the most valuable player to his team’s success in a non-statistical way as well. Take Verlander off of the Tigers, and they are a third place team. Take Jacoby Ellsbury off the Red Sox, and they still do not make the playoffs. Take Bautista off the Blue Jays, they still do not make it to the playoffs. Verlander meant far more to his team’s success; which, by definition, makes him the most valuable player.
Now, people will argue that, as Verlander pitched in only 34 games, he is not as valuable as Ellsbury, who played in 158 games. This theory is easily debunked. Ellsbury had a total of 718 plate appearances, while Verlander faced 969 batters. Verlander had, by that measurement, 251 more chances to affect the game than Ellsbury did. Factoring in fielding, Ellsbury had 50 chances, while Ellsbury had 394. When adding plate appearances and total chances for Ellsbury, the total is 1112. Verlander had 1019. The difference of 93 is less than one ball per game. Games played truly has no bearing on who is most valuable, especially this year.
The Most Valuable Player is not always a position player. Hopefully this vote shows that people are beginning to realize that.
Showing posts with label Jacoby Ellsbury. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jacoby Ellsbury. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Friday, July 22, 2011
The Value Of The Stolen Base
Over the course of baseball's history, five statistics had come to be regarded as the best for evaluating players. They were runs, batting average, home runs, runs batted in, and stolen bases. Now, over the course of the almost 150 years that baseball has been in existence as a professional sport, new ways of looking at players have been developed. Statistics such as OPS+, WAR, and rbat have changed the way that players are viewed now. In fact, sabermetric statistics have been a driving force behind dramatic increases of votes for the Hall of Fame. Players such as Bert Blyleven owe their induction in part to the sabermetric community.
Yet, despite the realization that a statistic such as batting average or RBIs no longer tell the true value of a player, stolen bases persist in the imaginations of baseball fans. Why is this? This seems to be a two part answer. First, the stolen base is a lot rarer now than it was even twenty five years ago, when players such as Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson were consistently at or near the century mark for a season. Second, the stolen base is one of the statistics that count in majority of fantasy leagues, which make players such as Jacoby Ellsbury or Juan Pierre appear more valuable than they are.
Using the win probability statistic, it was determined that from between 1999 and 2002 a stolen base added .018 wins. That is 1.8% for those of you that cannot do math. Meanwhile, a caught stealing subtracted .043 wins, or added the probability of a loss by 4.3%. In order for a stolen base to actually add anything to a team's success, the runner needs to be successful on at least 70% of his attempts.
Meanwhile, a home run adds roughly 10% to a team's win probability statistic. While decidedly old school, Earl Weaver's famous reluctance to steal bases and wait for the three run home run was, in retrospect, actually quite ahead of his time for a way to view the game. The home run adds a lot more to the odds of a team winning than a stolen base does.
Taking the percentages above, let's say that the average major league starting position player hits 15 home runs. He would then add 150% to his team's possible victories. Meanwhile, Juan Pierre in 2010 stole 68 bases while being caught 18 times. This adds up to providing a positive of adding 77.4% to his team's projected ability to win a game. For Pierre to add as much as an average player, he would have needed to steal around 130 bases at the same success rate.
Players such as Pierre, Dexter Fowler, and others who do nothing more than provide speed are often overrated. Ellsbury fell into this category prior to this year, where he has suddenly developed a bit of power to go along with his 50+ stolen base potential. While the stolen base is an exciting play, it is easy to see why as baseball management has changed the way they evaluate players, the pure speed player is practically a dinosaur. Getting on base and being able to move the line along is more valuable than being able to steal 60 bases, but only get on base at a .330 clip, as Pierre did in 2006 (it was actually 58 bases, but the point is still there).
The way of evaluating baseball players has changed a lot. So too should our perceptions of what makes a worthwhile major league player.
Yet, despite the realization that a statistic such as batting average or RBIs no longer tell the true value of a player, stolen bases persist in the imaginations of baseball fans. Why is this? This seems to be a two part answer. First, the stolen base is a lot rarer now than it was even twenty five years ago, when players such as Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson were consistently at or near the century mark for a season. Second, the stolen base is one of the statistics that count in majority of fantasy leagues, which make players such as Jacoby Ellsbury or Juan Pierre appear more valuable than they are.
Using the win probability statistic, it was determined that from between 1999 and 2002 a stolen base added .018 wins. That is 1.8% for those of you that cannot do math. Meanwhile, a caught stealing subtracted .043 wins, or added the probability of a loss by 4.3%. In order for a stolen base to actually add anything to a team's success, the runner needs to be successful on at least 70% of his attempts.
Meanwhile, a home run adds roughly 10% to a team's win probability statistic. While decidedly old school, Earl Weaver's famous reluctance to steal bases and wait for the three run home run was, in retrospect, actually quite ahead of his time for a way to view the game. The home run adds a lot more to the odds of a team winning than a stolen base does.
Taking the percentages above, let's say that the average major league starting position player hits 15 home runs. He would then add 150% to his team's possible victories. Meanwhile, Juan Pierre in 2010 stole 68 bases while being caught 18 times. This adds up to providing a positive of adding 77.4% to his team's projected ability to win a game. For Pierre to add as much as an average player, he would have needed to steal around 130 bases at the same success rate.
Players such as Pierre, Dexter Fowler, and others who do nothing more than provide speed are often overrated. Ellsbury fell into this category prior to this year, where he has suddenly developed a bit of power to go along with his 50+ stolen base potential. While the stolen base is an exciting play, it is easy to see why as baseball management has changed the way they evaluate players, the pure speed player is practically a dinosaur. Getting on base and being able to move the line along is more valuable than being able to steal 60 bases, but only get on base at a .330 clip, as Pierre did in 2006 (it was actually 58 bases, but the point is still there).
The way of evaluating baseball players has changed a lot. So too should our perceptions of what makes a worthwhile major league player.
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