Red Sox and Rays - Out Of Playoff Contention?

It is still very early in the baseball season, with the first week just being concluded. However, there are still two teams that have yet to taste victory. One is the Tampa Bay Rays, which may not be much of a surprise given the talent they lost this offseason. The second is the Boston Red Sox, which is shocking considering how most experts predicted them to win the World Series.

For the Red Sox or the Rays to win the World Series after this start would truly be historic. The worst start for a team to still make the playoffs is 0-5, by the 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates and the 1995 Cincinnati Reds. Both the Red Sox and Rays find themselves at 0-6 presently.

Now does this mean that both teams are already out of playoff attention? Not at all. If either of these teams lost six games in a row in the middle of the season, analysts would be paying much less attention. However, this is at the start of the year, where the accumulating losses are more obvious, especially when both teams have been swept by teams that were expected to be terrible (the Rays by Baltimore, the Sox by Cleveland).

The Rays have become just the second team to go from having the best record in the American League to 0-5, joining the 1905 Red Sox. They have been horrendous on offense, becoming the fourth team since 1919 to score one or fewer runs in five of their first six games. The Rays rank dead last in baseball in runs (7), batting average (.136), on base percentage (.218), and slugging (.260). The Sox, meanwhile, are 29th in batting average (.190) and 26th in runs (16). The biggest issue for Boston, even more than their offense, has been their pitching. They rank dead last in ERA (8.33), 29th in WHiP (1.68), had not had a quality start until today.

So, are both teams out of it already? In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'til it's over." But the odds are certainly stacked against both clubs after the first week.

2011 Preview - National League Central

This is the fifth installment of the six part 2011 baseball preview. Today features the National League Central. Teams are listed in the order of their expected finish.

1. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers are all in on the 2011 season. Given that this is Prince Fielder's last year under Milwaukee control before free agency, the Brewers went out and strip mined the farm system in an attempt to compete this year. Trades for Zack Greinke and Sahun Marcum dramatically improved the rotation. Yovani Gallardo now becomes the number three pitcher. Randy Wolf is a better fit as the fourth starter, as opposed to the number two. Rounding out the rotation is Chris Narveson, who pitched well last year. The offense is solid, anchored by Fielder, Ryan Braun, and the solid Casey McGehee.

Injuries are a concern with the Brewers. Already, Greinke is going to miss some time due to a rib injury, and Marcum is dealing with shoulder tightness. If these injuries cause either pitcher to miss significant time, the Brewers are in trouble. The defense is also a concern. Alcides Escobar, a solid fielding shortstop, was moved in the Greinke trade, and replaced with Yuniesky Betancourt, who is a defensive black hole.

As long as the Brewers enjoy a reasonably healthy season, they should be the favorite to win a fairly strong NL Central.

2. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs offseason may have attracted more attention in the Central had the Brewers not made as many moves. By trading for Matt Garza, they improved their rotation. The signings of Carlos Pena and Kerry Wood improve their defense and bullpen respectively. Pena is a Gold Glove caliber first baseman, and is adept at gathering potentially errant throws. This will help the entire infield, and Starlin Castro in prticular. Wood returned tot he Cubs to set up Carlos Marmol, and as insurance in case Marmol struggles.

The key for the Cubs may be Carlos Zambrano. Last season, prior to the All-Star break, he was 3-6 with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.69 WHiP. After the break, he went 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA and a 1.27 WHiP. Which Zambrano will the Cubs get in 2011? Starlin Castro also has to take the next step in his development. Last year, he hit .300 with 10 stolen bases as a rookie. He was also caught 8 times. Improvement as a base stealer and proving that he can continue to provide a .300 average will be key.

The Cubs are a much better team that most people realize. Should Milwaukee falter, look for them to capitalize and take the NL Central.

3. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are due to regress this season. Last year, Joey Votto and Scott Rolen had excellent seasons to help power the Reds to the playoffs. Votto won the MVP, and should continue to hit at the same level, however Rolen is a concern. At age 35, he hit 20 home runs for the first time since 2006. He also struck out in 15.3% of his at bats, his highest total since 2004. Should the power numbers return to where they have been, and the strikeout rate continues to rise, the Reds suddenly find themselves with a hole in their lineup.

While the Brewers and the Cubs improved, the Reds didn't. They return virtually the same roster from 2010 as they attempt to repeat. However, the Reds do boast a good rotation, headed by Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. The bullpen is solid, with veteran Francisco Cordero closing, and flame throwing Aroldis Chapman as their 8th inning pitcher.

The Reds have a good young team, and will be competitive for a few years. They just don't have enough to win the division in 2011 with the improvements made by the other teams.

4. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are in trouble. Already, Adam Wainwright has been lost for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Chris Carpenter has been dealing with several minor injuries during Spring Training, and given his history, cannot be counted on to pitch the entire season. The spectre of Albert Pujols' impending free agency hangs over this team as well. Colby Rasmus, a very good young player, has somehow incurred the wrath of Tony LaRussa, and was rumored to be on the trading block all offseason.

Despite this, the strength of the Cardinals is their lineup. Pujols is the best player in baseball, and is surrounded by good players in Rasmus, Matt Holliday, and the recently acquired Lance Berkman. Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto improve their middle infield, providing better defense and offense than Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan.

This is going to be an interesting year for the Cardinals, and may implode rapidly. The offense may be enough to keep them in contention for most of the year, but they simply do not have the pitching to keep up.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates are an improving team with several exciting young players ready to make an impact at the major league level. Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, and Andrew McCutchen provide a great core of talent that should be together for years. James McDonald looks like a potential number one starter in the making. The bullpen of All-Star Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan is solid. The Pirates are a much better team than they were in 2010.

However, the Pirates are still a couple of years away. The major league roster does not yet have enough talent to compete with the upper echelon of teams in the Central. There is plenty of talent coming up through the minors with pitching prospects Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie, Rudy Owens, and Luis Heredia ready to produce in the majors within the next two years.

The Pirates are improving. While 2011 may not be the year they end their 18 year run of losing seasons, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

6. Houston Astros: The Astros needed to rebuild long ago, but they had managed to remain close to contention, causing them to keep expending prospects for rental players. Last season, the bottom fell out, and they finally began the rebuilding process. Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman were traded, finally bringing over prospects to help them rebuild. However, this team has very little talent on offense at the major league level. Carlos Lee had his worst season in his career. Michael Bourn, while a Gold Glove center fielder, is not much of a hitter. Speed is his greatest asset, although he strikes out far more than a leadoff hitter should. His OPS+ of 90 proves that he is below league average as a batter.

The one bright spot for the Astros is their rotation. Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ, Brett Myers, and Bud Norris comprise a staff that is surprisingly solid and vastly underrated. Rodriguez and Myers are an excellent top two in any rotation. Happ and Norris have a lot of promise, and have demonstrated the ability to get major league hitters out. Ryan Rowland-Smith is the probable fifth starter, and is a solid fit in any pitching staff.

The Astros are going to be terrible this season, and will be in contention for the top pick in 2012. They delayed rebuilding for too long, and will suffer the consequences for the next few years.

Card of the Week Part 5 - 1972 Topps Joe Morgan Traded

The Topps Traded sets as we have come to know them originally came about in 1981, when a separate boxed set featuring players that were traded during the season, and rookies that did not make the base set, was introduced. Previously, there had been other incarnations of the Traded set, both in 1974 and 1976, as 44 card sets featuring only players that had been traded. However, the origins of this concept trace their way back to 1972.

Included as part of the high numbered section of the set, this seven card subset featured well known players who had been traded during the season. These cards featured those players in their new uniforms, with a facsimile rubber stamp saying 'Traded' angled across the bottom of the card. At the time, this was a novel concept, as it required getting to the player on the new team, getting the photograph, and having the card ready in time for inclusion in that series. Back before the internet, digital photography, and the technology of today, this was a difficult undertaking.

Joe Morgan, who is on the card depicted, was traded from Houston to Cincinnati along with four other players for Lee May, Tommy Helms, and Jimmy Stewart. May was a solid player, coming off of back to back All-Star appearances, while Helms and Stewart were serviceable players at the major league level. Morgan, however, became one of the vital cogs of the Big Red machine of the 1970's, going on to make eight consecutive All-Star Game appearances, win back to back MVP awards, and win four Gold Gloves at second base. He also helped to lead the Reds to the post season five times, winning two World Series.