2011 NFC West Preview

Welcome to the eighth and final installment of the 2011 NFL Preview. In this edition, we take a look at the NFC West. As always, teams are listed in order of their expected finish.

1. St. Louis Rams:Over the past few years, the offense has been all about Steven Jackson. Jackson has been on the receiving end of a lot of hits over that time, and has shaken off the nagging injuries to account for 72% of the Rams carries since 2008. Jackson will not have to shoulder that much of the lead this year, as the Rams have finally gotten some actual depth behind him in Jerious Norwood and Cadillac Williams. They have also finally found themselves a quarterback in Sam Bradford. Bradford looks like a future star in the league, and has Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator. This will only help his development. At receiver, he has what is essentially Wes Welker West in Danny Amendola, and Mike Sims-Walker, who is looking to jump start his career after faltering over the past season and a half in Jacksonville. Lance Kendricks will make an immediate impact in the passing game at tight end.

The defense, particularly the defensive line, could be outright scary for the opposition this year. Chris Long is beginning to tap into his potential, and appears to be on the verge of becoming a dominant player. James Hall is still a steady player, and Robert Quinn will be worked into the rotation. As he develops, he could become yet another steady player on that line. At linebacker, James Laurinaitis is solid in the middle, but the rest of the linebacking corps is a bit lacking. They gave up a lot of big plays last year, but should see an upgrade with the signing of Ben Leber. The biggest problem the Rams defense will have is in the secondary. The loss of Oshiomogho Atogwe will hurt a lot, but they attempted to lessen the blow by bringing in Quintin Mikell and Al Harris. The cornerbacks do not have any depth at all, with the injury to third corner Jerome Murphy. If either of the starters gets hurt, the Rams are in a lot of trouble in the passing game. Look for the Rams to attempt to generate a lot of pressure with the line and through creative blitz packages to help the secondary.

The Rams have the pieces in place to be the dominant team in the NFC West for a long time. It starts this season, as they will finish above .500.

2. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals season was doomed from the start last year, as they attempted to go with the combo platter of suckage at quarterback. After realizing that Derek Anderson, John Skelton, and Max Hall are not NFL quarterbacks, they went out and traded their top defensive back in Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie (aka the Good Cromartie) for Kevin Kolb. Kolb is an accurate quarterback, but there are durability issues here. He has also displayed a penchant for turning the ball over, with eleven interceptions against fourteen touchdowns. Can Kolb be anything more than a backup? The running game is thin, as Tim Hightower was traded and rookie Ryan Williams is out for the season. This leaves the job solely to Beanie Wells, who has yet to show that he can actually do anything as a running back. Look for Chester Taylor, he of the 2.4 yards per carry last year, to get a lot of touches. The receivers may as well be Larry Fitzgerald, Larry Fitzgerald, and Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is a top three receiver, and should sue for a lack of support. The other starter is either going to be Andre Roberts or Early Doucet. Todd Heap was brought in as a free agent, and Rob Housler was drafted in the third round, but when do the Cardinals use the tight end? This could be yet another mess on offense.

The defense was absolutely terrible last year, looking at times old and at other times inexperienced. While they would like to trun the defense into Pittsburgh West, there is simply a lack of talent on this side of the football. Going with their third defensive co-ordinator in three years does not help, since unless he happens to be Gandalf and can turn nothing into a formidible cast of characters, it won’t matter. There is nothing even close to resembling a pass rush, either from the line or from the linebackers. Speaking of the linebackers, Joey porter and Clark Haggans were a travesty last year. They ae simply too slow to be able to make the types of plays that are required in this defense. In the secondary, Adrian Wilson is solid, and great on blitzes. Patrick Peterson will start immediately, and will need to fill the void left by Rodgers-Cromartie being traded. Look for the Cardinals to go four for four on new defensive co-ordinators next year.

The Cardinals need a lot of help, so why pick them to finish second? Because the rest of the division is even more of a train wreck.

3. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers seemingly have a lot of talent on offense, but can never make it work. Why is this? Quite simply, it is due to the quarterback. News flash for those of you that didn’t know (probably Alex Smith’s family), but Alex Smith is terrible. If he is going to do anything with his career, aside from being known as the guy the 49ers drafted instead of Aaron Rodgers, it has to be now. Otherwise, expect to see Colin Kaepernick after the bye week. The offense will once again feature a heavy dose of Frank Gore, and will need him to stay healthy. Kendall Hunter looks like he can develop into a Brain Westbrook type of player, but can he shoulder the load if when Gore gets hurt? The receivers have a lot of talent, but have not realized their potential. Vernon Davis finally lived up to the hype, but can he continue to do so without Mike Singletary? Backup Delanie Walker should have an increased role in the offense, as the 49ers want to use the two tight end set in the passing game. Michael Crabtree remains an enigma, missing all four preseason games for the third consecutive year, and having much more hype than production. Braylon Edwards can make the spectacular grab, then can drop a ball that hits him in the numbers. Josh Morgan may actually be the most oconsistant of the receivers, but is at best the number three guy.

The defense had a lot of turnover, as six starters from last season are no longer with the team. Isaac Sopoaga moves over to nose tackle, taking over for Aubrayo Franklin. Justin Smith is a solid pass rusher on the line, and might actually be the best at putting pressure on the quarterback in San Fran. The linebackers are the strength of this unit, and are why the 49ers have a solid run defense. Patrick Willis is in the discussion for best middle linebacker in the NFL, and rookie Aldon Smith will provide a much needed pass rusher from the edge. NaVarro Bowman gets a chance to start with the departure of Takeo Spikes, and looks ready for the responsibility. Getting that pass rush will be important for the secondary. While Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner are solid players, they are not even close to being elite. Forcing the quarterback into mistakes will dramatically help them, and make the secondary look better than it actually is.

The 49ers have some talent, and are taking the right steps. They need another solid draft, and they could be in contention as soon as next year.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Do not be fooled by Seattle making the playoffs and winning a playoff game into thinking that they are a good team, because they quite simply are not. They took a major step back when they allowed Matt Hasselbeck to depart as a free agent and brought in Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson was terrible to the point that his Vikings teammates flew to Mississippi to beg Brett Favre to return. Not exactly something that makes you have any confidence in Jackson as a starting quarterback, right? Marshawn Lynch had perhaps the greatest run in playoff history, but can he be the answer as the every down back? The receiving corps actually improved, with the addition of Sidney Rice and tight end Zach Miller. Adding Robert Gallery to the line helps as well, but there is not a lot of talent elsewhere on this side of the football.

The defense could actually be surprisingly good. Colin Cole, Red Bryant, and Brandon Mebane were out for a combined 18 games last year, but if healthy, will help solidify the run defense. While the front four only had 24 sacks last year, the number will improve as long as the line stays intact. Linebacker is a position that is in transition, as Lofa Tatupu was released. For the defense to truly emerge, Aaron Curry needs to live up to the hype that comes with being the fourth overall pick in the draft. Leroy Hill seems to finally be back from injury, and will add a dimension of toughness and an attitude to the defense. The secondary is flat out huge, as Pete Carroll has specifically targeted taller cornerbacks and safeties. Safety Kam Chancellor is 6’3. Cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman are 6’4 and 6’3, respectively. In fact, not one member of the secondary is under 5’10. If this experiment works out as well as Carroll is hoping it does, then the Seattle secondary could be rather formidable.

Seattle needs a lot more help on offense to be able to compete. Look for them to draft a quarterback in 2012, and attempt to drag themselves out of the cellar once again.

Thoughts From Round One

Before getting into the three best and worst moves from the draft, some observations:

-Before the Carolina Panthers pick, the section that shows the clock on the ESPN coverage said 'error'. Fitting beginning to the Cam Newton era, in my opinion.
-During the Denver Broncos pick, did Roger Goodell forget what year it was?
-Speaking of Goodell, I give him credit for acknowledging the cascade of boos he received. He still may not care about the fans, but at least he won't ignore the reception he gets.
-Julio Jones, good choice with the bowtie.
-Blaine Gabbert doesn't feel like an NFL quarterback after watching his interviews.
-I get the explanation given by Baltimore as to how they let the clock run out, but seriously, was Mike Tice running their draft? They couldn't have had someone on a piece of paper just in case?
-Is Jonathon Baldwin the final Baldwin brother?
-New England made their inevitable trade. I was starting to get worried that it wouldn't happen.

Now to the moves. Three best:
1. Cleveland trading with Atlanta: Yes, they could have used Julio Jones, but the Browns have a ton of holes. One pick was not going to cure that. Instead, they literally got an offer they couldn't refuse for that pick. Even when they traded up, they are still up three picks from that move.
2. Baltimore drafting Jimmy Smith: They very well could have gotten screwed by not turning in a name before time ran out, but Kansas City took a receiver. Smith will give them a shutdown corner, and will allow Baltimore to do the one thing that they couldn't last year - blitz. Even with the questions surrounding his off the field issues, he's going into a locker room where Ray Lewis and company will not tolerate that. Perfect fit.
3. New England trading pick 28: They had pick 33, so whatever they draft there is not going to have that big of a dropoff. With the pieces that the Patriots need (offensive line, pass rushing defense) in abundance in this year's draft, they will still get what they need. The Saints may not be as good as people think they will be next year, as they have a tough schedule. That pick they got from New Orleans could well be in the 15 to 20 range, which is better than the Patriots are expected to draft.

Now, the three worst moves of the first round:
1. Cam Newton first overall: If you are Carolina, what is the value of this pick? Newton is a developmental quarterback who needs a couple of years to learn the NFL game. Also, the Panthers now admit they wasted a second round draft choice last year when they took Jimmy Clausen. Marcell Dareus or A.J. Green would have been better fits for the Panthers. Now, this is nothing against Newton, and I would like him if he went in the second round to a team like Philadelphia, where he could learn from Mike Vick and Andy Reid. Instead, he will get pushed out onto the field too early, and go down as a bust.
2. Falcons trading five picks to the Browns to draft Julio Jones: I get the rationale here, as Jones should finally give Roddy White someone to draw defenders away. However, there are a lot of questions about Jones on the field. He tends to drop the easy passes, as it looks as though he is trying to turn everything into a large gain. Also, the Browns needed him as well. Why would Holmgren trade out of this spot, knowing that Atlanta was looking to take Jones? I think Holmgren saw something he really didn't like, and I'll trust his judgment here.
3. Seattle drafting James Carpenter: Yes, the Seahawks need offensive line help. Yes, Carpenter will be an immediate starter at guard for them. However, there were better players available on the offensive line. Gabe Carimi, who went 29th, would have given the Seahawks a pair of bookends for their line. Better guards would actually be available in round two, and if they liked Carpenter that much, he probably would have been available as well. This pick was an absolute reach.

Thoughts from Day 2 will be up tomorrow morning.

Is Jed York onto something?

One day after losing to the Eagles to drop to 0-5 on the season, Jed York - owner and president of the San Fransisco 49ers - stated that not only will his team make the playoffs this season, but will outright win the NFC West. On the surface, this statement seems completely preposterous. Since 1990, no team that has ever started 0-5 has even reached the playoffs, let alone win it's division. So, it would seem that it would be relatively simple to dismiss this statement outright.

But let's take a closer look here. It isn't as though the 49ers play in anything that resembles a juggernaut of a division in the NFC West. Presently, the division leader is Arizona at 3-2 (who has been outscored by their opponents 88 to 138). Following them is Seattle at 2-2 and the Rams at 2-3. This division won't exactly confuse anyone as anything beyond mediocre. After five games, the 49ers are only three games back, so the difference in record is possible to come back from.

Now, let's look at their remaining schedule. Starting next week, they host Oakland, head to Carolina, play Denver in London, host St. Louis and Tampa Bay after a bye week, go to Arizona and Green Bay, host Seattle, go to San Diego and St. Louis, and finish up hosting Arizona. Of those teams, only three (Tampa, Green Bay, and Arizona) are over .500. Also in the 49ers favor, they have played only one game in division.

Looking at the teams in the NFC West, the other teams also have some potentially serious issues. Arizona is starting an undrafted rookie free agent in Max Hall (who I personally think will turn out to be decent, but that's another topic). Matt Hasselback has been one hit from the IR for the last three seasons, and does anyone really trust Charlie Whitehurst? St. Louis might be in the best shape quarterback-wise with Bradford, but his primary target is now out for the season. Seattle has troubles getting to the quarterback. Arizona's defense as a whole is terrible, ignoring the uncharacteristically bad day that Drew Brees and the Saints had yesterday. St. Louis has serious problems amongst it's receiving corps now that Clayton is out for the year.

Maybe Jed York is right. The NFC West certainly seems wide open for anyone to take, even as unlikely as it would seem for a 0-5 team to win a division.