2012 Fantasy Baseball Busts

With every fantasy baseball season, there are players that dramatically out perform expectations. On the flip side, there are those players that fail in often spectacular fashion, to the point where they may derail a seemingly promising fantasy run. The key is to notice those players whose statistics from the previous season are not likely to be sustained, and let other people grab them much earlier than they should go. Here are our picks by position:

Catcher – Power hitting catchers that can produce a decent batting average are a scarce commodity. Catchers that hit .320 with 30 home runs are even rarer. Last year, Mike Napoli reached both of those levels with only 432 plate appearances. However, his batting average with inflated by a .344 BABip. In his career, Napoli has had one other season where his BABip was over .300, and that was 2009, when he .272. Yes, playing in Texas will help, but he is much more likely to play like an average catcher than an elite player this year.

First Base – The obvious choice here would be Ryan Howard, as his final at bat in 2011 left him crumpled upon the ground with a torn Achilles. Yet, there is a player who is considered elite at this position whose batting average has decreased in each of the last five seasons. Yes, Mark Teixeira can still hit home runs, but that is about all he can do right now. He has abandoned the concept of trying to put the ball into play to go after home runs with the short porch at Yankee Stadium. While he can provide two categories, he will absolutely kill teams in the other three.

Second Base – Take a player with dramatic home/road splits, questionable health, and a career year in most categories. Put them all together, and you have Ian Kinsler. Kinsler, for his career, hits .309 at home, and just .243 on the road. He has been injured numerous times over his career, so there is no guarantee that he can have a second consecutive year that he does not get injured. Over the past three years, he has hit 31,9, and 32 home runs. His batting average over the course of the year has fluctuated from .253 to .319. Strangely, in both his 30-30 seasons, he had the lowest two batting averages (.253 and .255) of his career. Kinsler is way too inconsistent and injury prone, and is just as likely to be a wasted pick as he is to be a valuable fantasy league producer.

Third Base – Anyone remember Kevin Maas? Or Shane Spenser? Or Sam Horn? Those players looked like elite players over their first 150 at bats in the major leagues, then faded into obscurity. Brett Lawrie may not end up with a career that was as disappointing as the players mentioned, but he is not a guarantee to be a stud either. Lawrie has a history of being a bit of a mental case, and that may derail his career more than anything else. Some publications have him ranked as highly as the third best third baseman in league, which is ridiculous. Classic over-hyped prospect.

Shortstop – Contract year? Check. One reasonably healthy year for a player with an injury history? Check. Big, guaranteed contract? Check. Ladies and gentlemen, meet Jose Reyes! The newly minted Miami Marlin won a batting title and stole 39 bases last year, despite missing time with a hamstring injury. In fact, he has had injuries to both his calf and hamstring over the past three years, which does not bode well for a player who relies on his speed. Reyes is the ultimate risk-reward player at shortstop – he could be great, but he could miss most of the year as well.

Outfield – Over the past two seasons, a total of ten players have combined for 40 home runs and 70 stolen bases. Of those ten, Drew Stubbs has had the lowest batting average and fewest RBI. He has struck out in 28.9% of his plate appearances over his career, and the rate has increased each season. His walk rate, meanwhile, has been around 9%. He has an OPS+ of 96 in his career, and he simply cannot get on base. Normally, a player that has both speed and power is a player to covet, but not if those are the only two things he provides. There is also the possibility that he could gt benched if he starts slowly, since the Reds have a lot of outfield depth. Let someone else jump on the supposed break out year for this 27 year old.

Starting Pitcher – Over the past six years, Josh Beckett has been dominant in odd numbered years, yet decidedly mediocre in even numbered years. Guess what 2012 is. Add to this trend the fact that he seems to be obsessed with an alleged rat in the Boston clubhouse who ruined the ‘Chicken and Beer’ fun, and there is a forecast for disaster. Beckett also does have a bit of an injury history as well. He has been far too inconsistent over his career to expect back-to-back impressive campaigns.

Relief Pitcher – Repeat after me – do not chase saves. Do not draft a closer just because he happened to lead the major leagues in saves, especially if he did so with a below average WHiP and K/9 rate. In short, avoid Jose Valverde. Valverde went 49-49 in save opportunities last season, but how likely is he to repeat that? Valverde is 34, has had his K/9 decrease each of the last six seasons, and has seen his BB/9 climb above 4 for the last couple of seasons. as soon as he starts blowing a few games, he will be nothing more than a replacement level closer in a typical fantasy league.

Boston Red Sox 2012 Season Preview

Following a collapse that left many diehard Red Sox fans recalling the days prior to 2004, the Sox made wholesale changes – to the front office and coaching staff. Gone are the ‘Boy Wonder’ Theo Epstein, having been traded to the Chicago Cubs to take over as the team’s President of Baseball Operations. The Sox also got rid their most successful manager in the history of the franchise in Terry Francona. In their place, the Sox hired The Official Puppet of Larry Lucchino in Ben Cherington as GM; and Bobby Valentine as manager, a man who is better known for his ability to generate goodwill, provide a quality soundbite, and wear Groucho Marx glasses than for his baseball acumen.

These replacements would be somewhat palatable if the Red Sox did anything this offseason to upgrade their roster. Anything at all. However, they did the polar opposite, letting Jonathon Papelbon walk in free agency, trading their starting shortstop for minor league filler, and not addressing any of the holes on their roster. What, exactly, was the plan?

The starting rotation returns Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett. Buchholz was injured most of last year, so there is no guarantee that he will return to form in 2012. Lester and Beckett both produced statistics that looked good at the end of the year, but were also primarily responcible for the Sox epic collapse of 2012. Behind them, a group of has-beens in Vincente Padilla, Carlos Silva, John Maine and Aaron Cook, never-weres in Felix Doubrant and Tom Gorzelanny, and converted relievers in Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves. As maligned as John Lackey and Diasuke Matsuzaka have been, they are actually much better than the corpses that the Sox are looking to trot out two out of every five starts.

The bullpen could be decent, however. Even though they lost Papelbon, they traded for Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon, both of whom have closing experience. If Bailey can remain healthy all season, they have an All-Star closer at an extremely affordable price. However, the key with him is his ability to stay healthy. If Bard goes back to the bullpen, the combo of he and Melancon will make the seventh and eight innings fairly worry free. However, the rest of the bullpen is in disarray. Bobby Jenks dealt with a potentially life threating situation with his spine this offseason, and there are doubts as to whether or not he will pitch again. Matt Albers looked solid at the start of last season, but wore down as hitters remembered that he was, in fact, the pitcher that bombed in Baltimore in recent history. The rest of the bullpen will consist of whatever arms do not stick in the rotation, none of which appear to be viable major league options.

In the outfield, center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury came back from an injury plagued 2010 with a vengeance, finally capitalizing on his potential. However, questions remain as to whether or not he can remain healthy, and if he can put up similar numbers consistently. Left field is manned by Carl Crawford, who was such a disappointment last year that team owner John Henry went out of his way to state that he was against the signing from the start. In right field, the often injured J.D. Drew has departed, as has the heir apparent in Josh Reddick. By all appearances, the Sox are hoping to cobble the position together with Cody Ross, Mark Sweeney, and possibly Ryan Kalish. None of these options really inspire any confidence.

Shortstop and third base have the potential to be disasters for the Sox. Shortstop Marco Scutaro was dumped, apparently for financial reasons. In his place, the Sox have the triumvirate of Mike Aviles, Jose Iglasies, and their big free agent signing – Nick Punto. If Aviles remains true to form and produces in even numbered years, then they will be decent there. Otherwise, this could be a black hole in the lineup. At third base is Kevin Youkilis, a solid player when healthy. However, Youkilis has been injured over the past two seasons, and missed a significant amount of time last year. One has to wonder if his body can hold up to playing third base at this stage of his career. If not, uber-prospect Will Middlebrooks had better live up to his billing, or else the Sox offense will be in serious trouble.

On the plus side, first and second base are solid. Adrian Gonzalez produced a monster season, ranking in the top ten in the American League in most meaningful offensive categories while providing Gold Glove caliber defense. He will anchor the lineup for years to come. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia provides a bit of everything for Boston, bringing surprising power, underrated speed, and leadership qualities that the Sox are in desperate need of. At DH, David Ortiz appears to have hit a second wind in his career, and is back for another season.

If everything turns out perfect for the Red Sox, they can contend for a World Series berth. However, it is even more likely that the Sox could be on the outside looking in. Enjoy the memories of the Terry Francona Era, because the days of being a perennial contender appear to be just about done.

Is Josh Beckett Done?

Last night, in his first start of the season, Josh Beckett gave up five hits and four walks over five innings against the Cleveland Indians. beckett also struck out four Indians hitters. However, over his five innings of work, he threw 106 pitches, for an average of 21.2 per inning.

The first time through the lineup, he managed to get eight of the first nine batters out, relying more on a changeup than he ever had before. After the first time facing him, the Indians adjusted, and Beckett was only able to get eight of the next fifteen batters out. The Indians stayed patient, and waited for Beckett to make mistakes.

Normally, such a difference in approach could be explained by a pitcher trying to keep batters off balance. Yet, there are several underlying issues here. First, Beckett has never really thrown a changeup much at all previously, yet alone at a rate of roughly 25% of his pitches. Second, Beckett's fastball was averaging approximately 91 MPH, down 5 MPH from where it had been previously. Third, he was awful last season and during spring training. And fourth, he is coming back from a back injury.

Watching him last night, he appeared to be someone rehabbing a shoulder or an arm injury. Considering that no one was truly positive if Beckett really had a back injury last year, it is possible that the arm was really the issue. If that is the case, Beckett's mysterious loss of velocity would be easier to explain. In fact, his start last night looked extremely similar to when Pedro martinez came back from his arm injury. Pedro got shelled in his first start, yet managed to finish the year with a 20-4  record with a 2.26 ERA. Incidentally, both had this happen during the season they both turned 30.

The difference is that Pedro had the mental capacity to know how to be effective without throwing fastballs past everyone else. He was still as confident as ever, daring the opposition to beat him. Beckett, however, looked timid, and was trying to hit corners. This is not what he has done to be successful before, and he needs to go back to daring the opposition to beat him. He needs to channel his inner Pedro.

If Beckett is not able to adapt, then he may very well be finished as a decent starter in baseball. Perhaps he could still be effective in a relief role, but who pays $17million per year to a set up pitcher? Not even the Yankees do that. Beckett needs to adjust how he pitches, or hope that the loss in velocity was an aberrition. Otherwise, his career may be just about over.