Going in to 2011, the Minnesota Twins appeared ready to do what they have always done – compete for the AL Central title despite never quite appearing good enough on paper. Well, last year the wheels fell off, as the pitching was terrible and Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Denard Span were all hurt. By the end of the year, the Twins may as well have had a AAAA roster, and it showed in the results.
For the Twins to be better in 2012, the rotation needs to pitch better. One would think that, since they gave up the second most runs in the American League, that they would be better by default, right? Wrong. When 2/5 of your rotation consists of batting practice pitchers such as Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis, you’re going to get pounded like a nerd with lunch money. While Francisco Liriano pitched a no hitter last year, it may have actually been the worst no hitter in the history of baseball. It also came against the White Sox, who couldn’t have hit the broad side of a barn last year. The Twins need him to pitch like he did in 2010, not like the imposter that was wearing his jersey in 2011. Carl Pavano makes starts, and is able to get through innings. That’s about it. On almost any other team in baseball, he’s a fifth starter. In Minnesota? Pavano is the second starter, which should tell you everything that needs to be known about this atrocity of a pitching staff. Scott Baker, if he can stay healthy, is actually a decent starter who had a 4-1 K/BB rate last year. Unfortunately, he also got hammered by the injury bug. If he can stay healthy, the Twins may be able to win 60 games. If not, there may not be a limit to how far they can sink.
As bad as the rotation is, and it’s God-Awful, the bullpen may be worse. Matt Capps is a mediocre closer at best, but at least he only cost them Wilson Ramos *sarcasm*. Glen Perkins was handed a three year deal to be the setup man, instead of the Twins using that money to actually, you know, help their team in any truly useful fashion. Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak was moved from the rotation to the bullpen, which speaks volumes about their effectiveness. The rest of the bullpen may as well be pitching machines or people from the stands, since they would probably be just as effective.
In the outfield, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer departed in free agency. The Twins replaced them with Ben Revere, who is a future leadoff candidate with solid speed and defense, but limited upside; and Josh Willingham. Willingham also has a history of injury problems, and really may be better as a fourth outfielder or DH. Denard Span is expected to be healthy, and will be desperately needed on a team that is going to need to manufacture runs. Expect to see a lot of Rene Tosoni this year, which is good news for his relatives and no one else.
Around the infield, it doesn’t get much better either. Danny Valencia hit 15 home runs last year, and got on base at a .294 clip. The Twins thought about sending him back to the minors last year, and may end up doing so this year. Jamey Carroll is a decent utility infielder, but is going to be the Twins starting shortstop. This is because Alexi Casilla is going to be the everyday second baseman, if he can stay healthy (notice a trend?) Casilla can run, and that’s about it. He ends up at second base because Tsuyoshi Nishioka may have been a bigger disappointment than WaterWorld. Some combination of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer will play first base, if either are healthy. Morneau is still battling concussion symptoms from 2010, and may never get back to form.
At catcher are the aforementioned Mauer and Ryan Doumit. Doumit is expected to be the Twins DH, which should keep him from having as many trips to the DL as he typically has. This means that Drew Butera gets mentioned in this post. Do not expect analysis of Drew Butera. We are not wasting out time. Mauer may never hit 28 home runs again, but he is still one of the best catchers in baseball. If he’s healthy, he may be the only reason to watch a Twins game.
The Twins will be one of the teams ‘competing’ for the worst record in baseball this season. The worst part is, they do not have any real prospects that are close to making an impact, or veterans that could bring something back in trade. The Twins will be awful, and will be for a while.
Showing posts with label AL Central. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AL Central. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Kansas City Royals 2012 Season Preview
According to Dayton Moore’s “Process”, the Kansas City Royals were going to have their prospects up in 2011 and 2012, have them learn how to be major league players, and try to contend for 2013. Well, a strange thing happened along the way, as the Royals had one of the better offenses in baseball in 2011. While the starting rotation needs to show dramatic improvement for the Royals to contend for a playoff spot this season, maybe it’s not as far away as once thought. In fact, the Royals have become a trendy sleeper pick for several outlets, especially since the second Wild Card has been added.
For the Royals to take the next step, they need one or two of their starters to dramatically improve. Luke Hochevar is the de facto number one starter, but he is far from an ace. In fact, the Royals not only do not have a true number one starter, but they also do not have a pitcher that could be a number two starter on a good team either. Hochevar did show signs of improvement in the second half of last year, however; as his K/9 went from 4.38 to just under 9. If he can keep that improvement in 2012, then he may just be ready. Jonathan Sanchez was acquired from the San Francisco Giants for Melky Cabrera’s career year. Sanchez strikes out a lot of hitters, but walks a lot as well. He also has some health concerns. If he could improve his control, then he could be another solid starter, but at 29, he is what he is at this point. Bruce Chen has gone from journeyman bust to a Panamanian-Korean version of Jamie Moyer. While he is not going to make a lot of people miss, he has been surprisingly effective. Felipe Paulino was picked up after being released by the Colorado Rockies, and immediately become a fairly good starter. Ignore his won-loss record and total and aggrigate ERA – he has a lot of upside and may end up being the Royals best starter this year. The fifth spot in the rotation will be taken by either Aaron Crow or Danny Duffy. Crow has two solid pitches, and desperately needs a third pitch to be an effective starter. However, his fastball-slider combo were great out of the bullpen, where he was an All-Star last year. That would leave Duffy, who looked like a younger version of Jonathan Sanchez.
The bullpen, however, is a strength for the Royals. Joakim Soria had an off year last year, partially due to injury and partially due to experimenting with a cutter in the first half. Once he scrapped the cutter, he went back to looking like the Soria of years past. Jonathan Broxton was picked up on a one year deal as a safety net if Soria either gets hurt again, or is traded. Little Timmy Collins is the primary lefty reliever, and wore down last year from overuse. Greg Holland was the Royals best reliever last year, and may end up being the closer of the future if Crow can stick in the rotation.
In the outfield, the Royals have Alex Gordon in left, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Jeff Francoeur in right. Gordon finally tapped into his limitless potential, becoming a Gold Glove outfielder and a legitimate offensive threat. Cain’s defense and speed made Melky Cabrera expendable, and he may end up taking the leadoff spot from Gordon. Francoeur had a surprisingly good season, as he finished with 20 home runs, and over 20 stolen bases. He is another solid defensive player, and furthers the Royals desire to be a run prevention team. Mitch Maier is the fourth outfielder, and can play all three positions.
Last year, the Royals had the youngest infield in baseball by the end of the year. Third baseman Mike Moustakas struggled initially in the majors, but began to hit as the season progressed. This was well in line with his minor league track record, where he needed 150 to 200 at bats to get acclimated to the talent level, then began to hit. Look for Moustakas to have a good year in 2012. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is a great defensive player, but provides little to nothing offensively. Despite that, he is extremely valuable, given his ability to take away hits and runs. Johnny Giavotella is expected to be the Opening Day second baseman, and will be better than what the Royals had there last season by default. His presence banishes Chris Getz either to the bench or to AAA. Eric Hosmer will also get a full season at first base, and is looking to build off of an impressive rookie season. Hosmer has also added an element of speed to his game over the last couple of seasons. Yuniesky Betancourt returns as a theoretical utility infielder, even though he couldn’t catch the ball if it was placed directly in front of him, and may actually be the worst player in baseball. But, it would not be the Royals if they did not make at least one head scratching move per offseason.
Salvador Perez turned a solid 148 at bat debut into a five year extension, and is locked up as the catcher of the present and future. While he swings at literally everything, he also has a surprisingly good contact rate. He is also a solid defensive catcher with a plus arm, so the Royals may have a steal with their investment. Brayan Pena is the backup catcher, and is essentially a body that can give Perez the occassional day off. Billy Butler is entrenched at the designated hitter spot, and while he may never hit a lot of home runs, is a lock for 40+ doubles and a solid batting average. All in all, the offense was good last year, and may be even better this year.
For the Royals to have a chance this year, they need their run prevention plan to work as well as they can possibly dream of. A step forward by either Hochevar or Paulino will help, but they are more likely to contend in 2013 than in 2012.
For the Royals to take the next step, they need one or two of their starters to dramatically improve. Luke Hochevar is the de facto number one starter, but he is far from an ace. In fact, the Royals not only do not have a true number one starter, but they also do not have a pitcher that could be a number two starter on a good team either. Hochevar did show signs of improvement in the second half of last year, however; as his K/9 went from 4.38 to just under 9. If he can keep that improvement in 2012, then he may just be ready. Jonathan Sanchez was acquired from the San Francisco Giants for Melky Cabrera’s career year. Sanchez strikes out a lot of hitters, but walks a lot as well. He also has some health concerns. If he could improve his control, then he could be another solid starter, but at 29, he is what he is at this point. Bruce Chen has gone from journeyman bust to a Panamanian-Korean version of Jamie Moyer. While he is not going to make a lot of people miss, he has been surprisingly effective. Felipe Paulino was picked up after being released by the Colorado Rockies, and immediately become a fairly good starter. Ignore his won-loss record and total and aggrigate ERA – he has a lot of upside and may end up being the Royals best starter this year. The fifth spot in the rotation will be taken by either Aaron Crow or Danny Duffy. Crow has two solid pitches, and desperately needs a third pitch to be an effective starter. However, his fastball-slider combo were great out of the bullpen, where he was an All-Star last year. That would leave Duffy, who looked like a younger version of Jonathan Sanchez.
The bullpen, however, is a strength for the Royals. Joakim Soria had an off year last year, partially due to injury and partially due to experimenting with a cutter in the first half. Once he scrapped the cutter, he went back to looking like the Soria of years past. Jonathan Broxton was picked up on a one year deal as a safety net if Soria either gets hurt again, or is traded. Little Timmy Collins is the primary lefty reliever, and wore down last year from overuse. Greg Holland was the Royals best reliever last year, and may end up being the closer of the future if Crow can stick in the rotation.
In the outfield, the Royals have Alex Gordon in left, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Jeff Francoeur in right. Gordon finally tapped into his limitless potential, becoming a Gold Glove outfielder and a legitimate offensive threat. Cain’s defense and speed made Melky Cabrera expendable, and he may end up taking the leadoff spot from Gordon. Francoeur had a surprisingly good season, as he finished with 20 home runs, and over 20 stolen bases. He is another solid defensive player, and furthers the Royals desire to be a run prevention team. Mitch Maier is the fourth outfielder, and can play all three positions.
Last year, the Royals had the youngest infield in baseball by the end of the year. Third baseman Mike Moustakas struggled initially in the majors, but began to hit as the season progressed. This was well in line with his minor league track record, where he needed 150 to 200 at bats to get acclimated to the talent level, then began to hit. Look for Moustakas to have a good year in 2012. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is a great defensive player, but provides little to nothing offensively. Despite that, he is extremely valuable, given his ability to take away hits and runs. Johnny Giavotella is expected to be the Opening Day second baseman, and will be better than what the Royals had there last season by default. His presence banishes Chris Getz either to the bench or to AAA. Eric Hosmer will also get a full season at first base, and is looking to build off of an impressive rookie season. Hosmer has also added an element of speed to his game over the last couple of seasons. Yuniesky Betancourt returns as a theoretical utility infielder, even though he couldn’t catch the ball if it was placed directly in front of him, and may actually be the worst player in baseball. But, it would not be the Royals if they did not make at least one head scratching move per offseason.
Salvador Perez turned a solid 148 at bat debut into a five year extension, and is locked up as the catcher of the present and future. While he swings at literally everything, he also has a surprisingly good contact rate. He is also a solid defensive catcher with a plus arm, so the Royals may have a steal with their investment. Brayan Pena is the backup catcher, and is essentially a body that can give Perez the occassional day off. Billy Butler is entrenched at the designated hitter spot, and while he may never hit a lot of home runs, is a lock for 40+ doubles and a solid batting average. All in all, the offense was good last year, and may be even better this year.
For the Royals to have a chance this year, they need their run prevention plan to work as well as they can possibly dream of. A step forward by either Hochevar or Paulino will help, but they are more likely to contend in 2013 than in 2012.
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Detroit Tigers 2012 Season Preview
In 2011, the Detroit Tigers were easily the class of the American League Central, boasting a solid lineup, an absolute stud ace pitcher, and a good bullpen. This year, they have improved the lineup, and bring back the same rotation. But will the Tigers be better?
For all the buzz centered around Justin Verlander, the rest of the rotation is pretty good. Verlander, who is not only the reigning Cy Young Award winner, but also the reigning MVP, is perhaps the best starting pitcher in the game. On his own, he automatically gives the Tigers a chance to win every game he pitches. Max Scherzer has shown flashes of greatness, and has started to be more consistant in each outing. Doug Fister is a very underrated pitcher, and solidified the rotation when he came over in the midseason trade from Seattle. Rick Porcello was decent at times last year, and will regress this season (more on that in a bit). Jacob Turner is likely to win the fifth starter position, and by default will be an upgrade over the corpse of Brad Penny. But will the pitching actually look as good as they really are? Scherzer, Porcello, and Fister are all groundball pitchers, and the Tigers defense around the infield has the mobility of Christopher Reeve. They will give up a lot more runs than last year, but may actually pitch better.
The bullpen suffered a big loss with the Al Alburquerque injury, but Octovio Dotel will help to minimize the damage. Jose Valverde was a perfect 49-49 in save attempts last season, but shows some signs of wear, as his K/9 has steadily decreased over the past four seasons. Phil Coke has been moved back to the bullpen after the Tigers attempt to turn him into a starter. Coke is a dominant lefty reliever, and will help bridge the gap to Valverde. Joaquin Benoit is a solid setup man, and will hold down the eighth inning.
The outfield consists of Andy Dirks in right field, Austin Jackson in center, and Brennan Boesch in left. Boesch missed roughly a third of the season with a thumb injury, but had been improved in his second season. Jackson has a lot of speed, but is not great at tracking down fly balls. He also has a tendency to strike out a lot for a leadoff hitter, which truly limits his effectiveness. Dirks is expected to be the starting right fielder, but is far from a sure thing to start the season with the Tigers. He tore up the Dominican winter league, and is looking to use that as a springboard to success in Detroit. If he falters, Delmon Young will step in. Ryan Raburn, slated to the be starting second baseman, can also play in the outfield if needed.
With the Tigers infield, we can safely say two things – they will hit well, and they will not catch the ball whatsoever. Miguel Cabrera moves over the third base after having not played there since 2008, when it took 14 games for Jim Leyland to decide that there were not enough cigarettes in Detroit for him to deal with Cabrera’s lack of defense. Yes, Cabrera may be one of the two best hitters in the game, but he is a much better first baseman than third baseman. Next to him is Jhonny Peralta, he whose parental units did not have spell check. Peralta can hit, but is an absolute butcher in the field. Ryan Raburn is a converted outfielder who is playing second base, and is actually the best defensive player starting in the Tigers infield. With a full season of plate appearances, he could have a breakout year. Prince Fielder signed a huge contract after Victor Martinez was lost for the season, and will take over for Cabrera at first. He provides another 40+ home run bat, but is a major defensive liability. Brandon Inge, upset after being sent to the bench after hitting less than .200 last year, will still see a lot of playing time as a defensive replacement. Yes, the offense will be better, but the pitching staff will have nightmares of double play grounders becoming hits.
Alex Avila broke out in a big way last season as the Tigers starting catcher. He was helped by a .366 batting average on balls in play, which points to regression this year. On the positive side, he did display a solid batting eye and the ability to take a walk. He will also be the main starting catcher even if he struggles, as backup Gerald Laird is useless with a bat. Delmon Young is slated to be the designated hitter, but that may change if either Boesch or Dirks struggle in the outfield. If that happens, either Fielder or Cabrera wil likely become the DH, with Inge moving into the starting lineup.
On paper, the Tigers are better than they were last season. While they will likely win the AL Central , they may not be as good a team. the lack of infield defense will keep them from winning a World Series.
For all the buzz centered around Justin Verlander, the rest of the rotation is pretty good. Verlander, who is not only the reigning Cy Young Award winner, but also the reigning MVP, is perhaps the best starting pitcher in the game. On his own, he automatically gives the Tigers a chance to win every game he pitches. Max Scherzer has shown flashes of greatness, and has started to be more consistant in each outing. Doug Fister is a very underrated pitcher, and solidified the rotation when he came over in the midseason trade from Seattle. Rick Porcello was decent at times last year, and will regress this season (more on that in a bit). Jacob Turner is likely to win the fifth starter position, and by default will be an upgrade over the corpse of Brad Penny. But will the pitching actually look as good as they really are? Scherzer, Porcello, and Fister are all groundball pitchers, and the Tigers defense around the infield has the mobility of Christopher Reeve. They will give up a lot more runs than last year, but may actually pitch better.
The bullpen suffered a big loss with the Al Alburquerque injury, but Octovio Dotel will help to minimize the damage. Jose Valverde was a perfect 49-49 in save attempts last season, but shows some signs of wear, as his K/9 has steadily decreased over the past four seasons. Phil Coke has been moved back to the bullpen after the Tigers attempt to turn him into a starter. Coke is a dominant lefty reliever, and will help bridge the gap to Valverde. Joaquin Benoit is a solid setup man, and will hold down the eighth inning.
The outfield consists of Andy Dirks in right field, Austin Jackson in center, and Brennan Boesch in left. Boesch missed roughly a third of the season with a thumb injury, but had been improved in his second season. Jackson has a lot of speed, but is not great at tracking down fly balls. He also has a tendency to strike out a lot for a leadoff hitter, which truly limits his effectiveness. Dirks is expected to be the starting right fielder, but is far from a sure thing to start the season with the Tigers. He tore up the Dominican winter league, and is looking to use that as a springboard to success in Detroit. If he falters, Delmon Young will step in. Ryan Raburn, slated to the be starting second baseman, can also play in the outfield if needed.
With the Tigers infield, we can safely say two things – they will hit well, and they will not catch the ball whatsoever. Miguel Cabrera moves over the third base after having not played there since 2008, when it took 14 games for Jim Leyland to decide that there were not enough cigarettes in Detroit for him to deal with Cabrera’s lack of defense. Yes, Cabrera may be one of the two best hitters in the game, but he is a much better first baseman than third baseman. Next to him is Jhonny Peralta, he whose parental units did not have spell check. Peralta can hit, but is an absolute butcher in the field. Ryan Raburn is a converted outfielder who is playing second base, and is actually the best defensive player starting in the Tigers infield. With a full season of plate appearances, he could have a breakout year. Prince Fielder signed a huge contract after Victor Martinez was lost for the season, and will take over for Cabrera at first. He provides another 40+ home run bat, but is a major defensive liability. Brandon Inge, upset after being sent to the bench after hitting less than .200 last year, will still see a lot of playing time as a defensive replacement. Yes, the offense will be better, but the pitching staff will have nightmares of double play grounders becoming hits.
Alex Avila broke out in a big way last season as the Tigers starting catcher. He was helped by a .366 batting average on balls in play, which points to regression this year. On the positive side, he did display a solid batting eye and the ability to take a walk. He will also be the main starting catcher even if he struggles, as backup Gerald Laird is useless with a bat. Delmon Young is slated to be the designated hitter, but that may change if either Boesch or Dirks struggle in the outfield. If that happens, either Fielder or Cabrera wil likely become the DH, with Inge moving into the starting lineup.
On paper, the Tigers are better than they were last season. While they will likely win the AL Central , they may not be as good a team. the lack of infield defense will keep them from winning a World Series.
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Cleveland Indians 2012 Season Preview
At the beginning of 2011, the Cleveland Indians were essentially an afterthought when it came to teams that could content. Then the season started, and the Indians found themselves surprisingly competitive. They made moves at the trade deadline, such as acquiring Ubaldo Jimenez. While the acquisitions did not work for 2011, and the Indians found themselves under .500 yet again, they have at least given notice that they are no longer the pushovers they had been for the past few seasons.
Cleveland’s starting rotation is filled with ground ball pitchers, so the infield defense is going to be vitally important. Fronting the rotation is the aforementioned Ubaldo Jimenez, who endured the worst season of his career. While his peripheral numbers were similar to what they had always been, he lost a couple of miles per hour from his fastball. If he can regain the lost velocity, he gives the Indians a very good ace. Otherwise, he becomes a good pitcher who will provide solid innings. Justin Masterson had a breakout season, as he shaved nearly a run and a half from his ERA. His walk rate drastically improved, and he appears to finally be tapping into this potential. Veteran Derek Lowe was brought over as the third starter. Despite his age, he still induces plenty of ground balls, and fits well into their rotation. Josh Tomlin may not be able to dent a piece of bread with his fastball, but he is a surprisingly effective starter. Kevin Slowey is the best bet to round out the rotation, as he looks to bounce back from an ineffective and injury plagued season.
The ‘Bullpen Mafia’ may actually be the best relief corps in baseball. Chris Perez returns as the closer, but may actually be one of the Indians worst relief pitchers. Even though he is expected to be back from his injury by Opening Day, there is no guarantee that he holds the spot all year. Vinnie Pestano, the pitcher most likely to take over from Perez, may be one of the top three set-up men in baseball. Last season, he held right handed batters to a .118 batting average. Joe Smith and Rafael Perez are both ground ball specialists, and are excellent specialists. This is an extremely deep group, and will not cost the Indians many games over the season.
The outfield is slated to have Michael Brantley in left, Grady Sizemore in center, and Shin-Soo Choo in right. Any idea of expecting production, health, or Sizemore missing fewer than 100 games is pure insanity at this point. Expect Brantley to end up in center. He provides solid defense and good speed, but also has issues staying healthy. Choo had an abysmal year las tseason, and needs to have a bounce back campaign for the Indians to take the next step forward in their quest to contend. Aaron Cunningham, a castoff from the San Deigo Padres, or Shelley Duncan, will likely see a lot of action this season.
Around the infield, the Indians have a nice blend of veterans and youngsters. Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis will be starters for an entire season in 2012, and both are intriguing prospects. Chisenhall may never reach the gaudy numbers that he was thought to early in his minor league career, but he looks like he may be another Travis Fryman-type player. .280 with 25 home runs and solid defense would not be a surprise. Kipnis, meanwhile, may be an absolute stud. He was overlooked by most people due to Dustin Ackley being in the minors at the same time, but Kipnis was just as good. Asdrubal Cabrera put together a monster year in 2011, and will be hitting in the middle of the lineup once again. Expect some regression, but he will have another solid year. Casey Kotchman provides excellent defense, and a decent bat, at first base. Power has never really been his thing, but he will hit enough to stay in the lineup. If either Chisenhall or Kotchman falter, defensive whiz Jack Hannahan is waiting in the wings.
At catcher is Carlos Santana, who happens to be one of the best in the game. His batting average was low, but he still got on base, hit for power, and was versatile in the field. Backup Lou Marson will see more time than the typical backup catcher, since Santana plays a lot of first base as well to take some wear and tear off his knees. Travis Hafner returns as the DH, but like Sizemore, can he be expected to remain healthy all season? If he can, Hafner provides another power bat to what is a solid lineup.
If the Indians can remain healthy, and that is a big if, they could have a shot at winning the AL Central. At the very least, they will be in contention for one of the wild card slots in the American League.
Cleveland’s starting rotation is filled with ground ball pitchers, so the infield defense is going to be vitally important. Fronting the rotation is the aforementioned Ubaldo Jimenez, who endured the worst season of his career. While his peripheral numbers were similar to what they had always been, he lost a couple of miles per hour from his fastball. If he can regain the lost velocity, he gives the Indians a very good ace. Otherwise, he becomes a good pitcher who will provide solid innings. Justin Masterson had a breakout season, as he shaved nearly a run and a half from his ERA. His walk rate drastically improved, and he appears to finally be tapping into this potential. Veteran Derek Lowe was brought over as the third starter. Despite his age, he still induces plenty of ground balls, and fits well into their rotation. Josh Tomlin may not be able to dent a piece of bread with his fastball, but he is a surprisingly effective starter. Kevin Slowey is the best bet to round out the rotation, as he looks to bounce back from an ineffective and injury plagued season.
The ‘Bullpen Mafia’ may actually be the best relief corps in baseball. Chris Perez returns as the closer, but may actually be one of the Indians worst relief pitchers. Even though he is expected to be back from his injury by Opening Day, there is no guarantee that he holds the spot all year. Vinnie Pestano, the pitcher most likely to take over from Perez, may be one of the top three set-up men in baseball. Last season, he held right handed batters to a .118 batting average. Joe Smith and Rafael Perez are both ground ball specialists, and are excellent specialists. This is an extremely deep group, and will not cost the Indians many games over the season.
The outfield is slated to have Michael Brantley in left, Grady Sizemore in center, and Shin-Soo Choo in right. Any idea of expecting production, health, or Sizemore missing fewer than 100 games is pure insanity at this point. Expect Brantley to end up in center. He provides solid defense and good speed, but also has issues staying healthy. Choo had an abysmal year las tseason, and needs to have a bounce back campaign for the Indians to take the next step forward in their quest to contend. Aaron Cunningham, a castoff from the San Deigo Padres, or Shelley Duncan, will likely see a lot of action this season.
Around the infield, the Indians have a nice blend of veterans and youngsters. Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis will be starters for an entire season in 2012, and both are intriguing prospects. Chisenhall may never reach the gaudy numbers that he was thought to early in his minor league career, but he looks like he may be another Travis Fryman-type player. .280 with 25 home runs and solid defense would not be a surprise. Kipnis, meanwhile, may be an absolute stud. He was overlooked by most people due to Dustin Ackley being in the minors at the same time, but Kipnis was just as good. Asdrubal Cabrera put together a monster year in 2011, and will be hitting in the middle of the lineup once again. Expect some regression, but he will have another solid year. Casey Kotchman provides excellent defense, and a decent bat, at first base. Power has never really been his thing, but he will hit enough to stay in the lineup. If either Chisenhall or Kotchman falter, defensive whiz Jack Hannahan is waiting in the wings.
At catcher is Carlos Santana, who happens to be one of the best in the game. His batting average was low, but he still got on base, hit for power, and was versatile in the field. Backup Lou Marson will see more time than the typical backup catcher, since Santana plays a lot of first base as well to take some wear and tear off his knees. Travis Hafner returns as the DH, but like Sizemore, can he be expected to remain healthy all season? If he can, Hafner provides another power bat to what is a solid lineup.
If the Indians can remain healthy, and that is a big if, they could have a shot at winning the AL Central. At the very least, they will be in contention for one of the wild card slots in the American League.
Friday, March 2, 2012
Chicago White Sox 2012 Season Preview
At this time in 2011, the Chicago White Sox looked like a legitimate contender to make the playoffs. They had added a consistantly solid bat in Adam Dunn for the middle of their lineup, had a great manager in Ozzie Guillen, and only had the Detroit Tigers as a team to contend against. Fast forward one year, and the White Sox are a train wreck. Guillen is gone, replaced with a rookie manager. General Manager Kenny Williams is making moves without seeming to have a plan. This is going to be a brutal season for the entire city of Chicago (more on that when we mock preview the Cubs), but especially for the White Sox.
The starting pitching on the White Sox could have anywhere from one to four decent pitchers. Gavin Floyd returns as the defacto ace of the rotation, but is badly miscast in that role. While he has provided solid strikeout to walk ratios and a decent WHiP since he has been given a full-time role, he has also had only one season with an ERA under 4.00. Likewise, John Danks does not strike out a lot of hitters, and gives up a decent amount of baserunners. Both slot better as a third starter. Jake Peavy continues to hunt for the elusive healthy season, and will probably be injured by the All-Star Break yet again. When healthy, he is one of the best in the game, but can he be counted on for more than 20 starts? Philip Humber pitched well last season, but does anyone really expect that to continue? Jason Simontacchi also had one good year, and how did his career go? Chris Sale actually could be the best of this group. He was lights out in the bullpen, and has the pitching repetoire and skills to succeed.
The bullpen could be a disaster. Matt Thornton proved that he cannot be a closer in the most empathic way possible, short of bring out a can of petrol to the mound and lighting himself on fire like a protester at the G8. However, when he was mercifully put back into the setup role, he pitched a lot better. Sergio Santos, last year’s closer, was traded for essentially nothing, so the closer role now falls upon hard throwing rookie Addison Reed. Reed struck out 12 batters in 7.1 innings last year, so he may have the makings of a Craig Kimbrel type of season (fantasy sleeper alert!) Jesse Crain returns to the bullpen, and is a solid piece for the seventh and eighth innings. However, any thought of him opening the season as the closer while easing Reed into the role is pure insanity. Will Ohman is pegged as the lefty specialist, but he really isn’t that good. The bullpen will be a lot worse than last year.
In the outfield, the White Sox will likely have Alejandro De Aza in left, Alex Rios in center, and Dayan Viciedo in right. There are enough question marks with the outfield, that they may as well wear Riddler costumes. Can De Aza, a 27 year old career minor leaguer, hit like he did in his 57 game trial over the final two months of the season? Can Alex Rios not be one of the worst players in baseball? Can Dayan Viciedo be a decent enough glove in right field where he does not evoke memories of Jose Canseco trying to field a ball? Chances are, two of these questions will be answered with ‘NO!’ Of the three, Viciedo has the best chance to be a solid contributor the entire season. Alex Rios did pull his astonishing disappearing act in 2009 as well, when he moped his way out of Toronto. De Aza screams fluke with his .404 BABiP last year. This group could be fairly bad.
Yet, as awful as the outfield could be, the infield may be even worse. Third baseman Brett Morel was atrocious until he went on a late season tear. Can he use that burst in September as a springboard for 2012? Unlikely, but there is a glimmer of hope, albeit a rather faint one. Alexei Ramirez is what he is, a 15 home run, 15 stolen base shortstop who plays solid defense and does not really do any one thing well. However, he may be the best bat in this lineup by default. One time mega-prospect Gordon Beckham has gotten progressively worse since his rookie season, and may actually be just a bench player. Paul Konerko continued to roll along, but is 36. How long will his body hold up?
Furthering what may be one of the worst lineups this side of the American League West, Adam Dunn managed to put up what may have been the worst season in major league history. Congratulations Bill Bergen, you are no longer the biggest embarrassment to be an every day player. The surprising part of Dunn’s collapse was how remarkably consistant he was for the ten years prior to that. Was this just a fluke season, or is Dunn….well….done? Chances are that he bounces back, but it really won’t be difficult to have a better season. At catcher is A.J. Pierzynski, a player who has played at backup level (check his WAR) over most of his career, yet still somehow finds a way to get over 400 at bats per season. Backup Tyler Flowers is another former top prospect whose stock has fallen dramatically (notice a trend here?) but he does have some power potential. If he can hit to start the year, he may finally end Pierzynski’s reign of terror at the catcher position.
In the end, the White Sox will be terrible this season. They have a rookie manager, no direction, a barren minor league system, and no hope. They will struggle to not finish in the basement of the American League Central.
The starting pitching on the White Sox could have anywhere from one to four decent pitchers. Gavin Floyd returns as the defacto ace of the rotation, but is badly miscast in that role. While he has provided solid strikeout to walk ratios and a decent WHiP since he has been given a full-time role, he has also had only one season with an ERA under 4.00. Likewise, John Danks does not strike out a lot of hitters, and gives up a decent amount of baserunners. Both slot better as a third starter. Jake Peavy continues to hunt for the elusive healthy season, and will probably be injured by the All-Star Break yet again. When healthy, he is one of the best in the game, but can he be counted on for more than 20 starts? Philip Humber pitched well last season, but does anyone really expect that to continue? Jason Simontacchi also had one good year, and how did his career go? Chris Sale actually could be the best of this group. He was lights out in the bullpen, and has the pitching repetoire and skills to succeed.
The bullpen could be a disaster. Matt Thornton proved that he cannot be a closer in the most empathic way possible, short of bring out a can of petrol to the mound and lighting himself on fire like a protester at the G8. However, when he was mercifully put back into the setup role, he pitched a lot better. Sergio Santos, last year’s closer, was traded for essentially nothing, so the closer role now falls upon hard throwing rookie Addison Reed. Reed struck out 12 batters in 7.1 innings last year, so he may have the makings of a Craig Kimbrel type of season (fantasy sleeper alert!) Jesse Crain returns to the bullpen, and is a solid piece for the seventh and eighth innings. However, any thought of him opening the season as the closer while easing Reed into the role is pure insanity. Will Ohman is pegged as the lefty specialist, but he really isn’t that good. The bullpen will be a lot worse than last year.
In the outfield, the White Sox will likely have Alejandro De Aza in left, Alex Rios in center, and Dayan Viciedo in right. There are enough question marks with the outfield, that they may as well wear Riddler costumes. Can De Aza, a 27 year old career minor leaguer, hit like he did in his 57 game trial over the final two months of the season? Can Alex Rios not be one of the worst players in baseball? Can Dayan Viciedo be a decent enough glove in right field where he does not evoke memories of Jose Canseco trying to field a ball? Chances are, two of these questions will be answered with ‘NO!’ Of the three, Viciedo has the best chance to be a solid contributor the entire season. Alex Rios did pull his astonishing disappearing act in 2009 as well, when he moped his way out of Toronto. De Aza screams fluke with his .404 BABiP last year. This group could be fairly bad.
Yet, as awful as the outfield could be, the infield may be even worse. Third baseman Brett Morel was atrocious until he went on a late season tear. Can he use that burst in September as a springboard for 2012? Unlikely, but there is a glimmer of hope, albeit a rather faint one. Alexei Ramirez is what he is, a 15 home run, 15 stolen base shortstop who plays solid defense and does not really do any one thing well. However, he may be the best bat in this lineup by default. One time mega-prospect Gordon Beckham has gotten progressively worse since his rookie season, and may actually be just a bench player. Paul Konerko continued to roll along, but is 36. How long will his body hold up?
Furthering what may be one of the worst lineups this side of the American League West, Adam Dunn managed to put up what may have been the worst season in major league history. Congratulations Bill Bergen, you are no longer the biggest embarrassment to be an every day player. The surprising part of Dunn’s collapse was how remarkably consistant he was for the ten years prior to that. Was this just a fluke season, or is Dunn….well….done? Chances are that he bounces back, but it really won’t be difficult to have a better season. At catcher is A.J. Pierzynski, a player who has played at backup level (check his WAR) over most of his career, yet still somehow finds a way to get over 400 at bats per season. Backup Tyler Flowers is another former top prospect whose stock has fallen dramatically (notice a trend here?) but he does have some power potential. If he can hit to start the year, he may finally end Pierzynski’s reign of terror at the catcher position.
In the end, the White Sox will be terrible this season. They have a rookie manager, no direction, a barren minor league system, and no hope. They will struggle to not finish in the basement of the American League Central.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Justin Verlander And The MVP Award
The MVP award is designed to go to, literally, the most valuable player in his league. Somehow, over the years, this has morphed into the most valuable position player. The line of thinking is that, since pitchers have the Cy Young Award, the MVP should go to an every day player. This line of thought is simply asinine.
In the early days of the MVP award, the voters felt the same. Pitchers would routinely be voted as MVP’s, right on through the mid-1940′s. Then, something in the thought process of the voters changed. This was even back before the advent of the Cy Young, so they did not even have ‘their award’. In fact, the only time a pitcher won MVP between 1945 and 1986 was back in 1968, when Bob Gibson and Denny McClain both won MVP. This was mainly because no one else was even close to being worthy.
Lately, however, the way that awards are voted on has changed. The sabermetric community has brought along new statistics designed to prove a player’s true value to their team, while devaluing the old standby categories, such as wins and RBI. This become most evident back in 2009, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award, despite winning only 16 games. Then in 2010, Felix Hernandez finished 13-12, but was voted the Cy Young. Both players deserved the awards, not by conventional thinking, but by measuring their performance differently.
This train of thought had not continued along to the MVP ballot however. Then along came Justin Verlander, and his fabulous 2011 season. Not only did Verlander run away with the Cy Young, but he also managed to become Justin Verlander – MVP. Verlander is the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley back in 1992. Looking at the WAR statistic, Verlander tied Jose Bautista at 8.5. Bautista, playing for the also ran Blue Jays, finished third in the balloting.
Verlander was, by far, the most valuable player to his team’s success in a non-statistical way as well. Take Verlander off of the Tigers, and they are a third place team. Take Jacoby Ellsbury off the Red Sox, and they still do not make the playoffs. Take Bautista off the Blue Jays, they still do not make it to the playoffs. Verlander meant far more to his team’s success; which, by definition, makes him the most valuable player.
Now, people will argue that, as Verlander pitched in only 34 games, he is not as valuable as Ellsbury, who played in 158 games. This theory is easily debunked. Ellsbury had a total of 718 plate appearances, while Verlander faced 969 batters. Verlander had, by that measurement, 251 more chances to affect the game than Ellsbury did. Factoring in fielding, Ellsbury had 50 chances, while Ellsbury had 394. When adding plate appearances and total chances for Ellsbury, the total is 1112. Verlander had 1019. The difference of 93 is less than one ball per game. Games played truly has no bearing on who is most valuable, especially this year.
The Most Valuable Player is not always a position player. Hopefully this vote shows that people are beginning to realize that.
In the early days of the MVP award, the voters felt the same. Pitchers would routinely be voted as MVP’s, right on through the mid-1940′s. Then, something in the thought process of the voters changed. This was even back before the advent of the Cy Young, so they did not even have ‘their award’. In fact, the only time a pitcher won MVP between 1945 and 1986 was back in 1968, when Bob Gibson and Denny McClain both won MVP. This was mainly because no one else was even close to being worthy.
Lately, however, the way that awards are voted on has changed. The sabermetric community has brought along new statistics designed to prove a player’s true value to their team, while devaluing the old standby categories, such as wins and RBI. This become most evident back in 2009, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award, despite winning only 16 games. Then in 2010, Felix Hernandez finished 13-12, but was voted the Cy Young. Both players deserved the awards, not by conventional thinking, but by measuring their performance differently.
This train of thought had not continued along to the MVP ballot however. Then along came Justin Verlander, and his fabulous 2011 season. Not only did Verlander run away with the Cy Young, but he also managed to become Justin Verlander – MVP. Verlander is the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley back in 1992. Looking at the WAR statistic, Verlander tied Jose Bautista at 8.5. Bautista, playing for the also ran Blue Jays, finished third in the balloting.
Verlander was, by far, the most valuable player to his team’s success in a non-statistical way as well. Take Verlander off of the Tigers, and they are a third place team. Take Jacoby Ellsbury off the Red Sox, and they still do not make the playoffs. Take Bautista off the Blue Jays, they still do not make it to the playoffs. Verlander meant far more to his team’s success; which, by definition, makes him the most valuable player.
Now, people will argue that, as Verlander pitched in only 34 games, he is not as valuable as Ellsbury, who played in 158 games. This theory is easily debunked. Ellsbury had a total of 718 plate appearances, while Verlander faced 969 batters. Verlander had, by that measurement, 251 more chances to affect the game than Ellsbury did. Factoring in fielding, Ellsbury had 50 chances, while Ellsbury had 394. When adding plate appearances and total chances for Ellsbury, the total is 1112. Verlander had 1019. The difference of 93 is less than one ball per game. Games played truly has no bearing on who is most valuable, especially this year.
The Most Valuable Player is not always a position player. Hopefully this vote shows that people are beginning to realize that.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
2011 Preview - American League Central
For Part Two of the 2011 baseball preview, we look at the American League Central. Teams are listed in the order of their anticipated finish.
1. Chicago White Sox: Despite losing their closer in Bobby Jenks, the White Sox had a solid offseason. In signing Adam Dunn as a free agent to bolster an already solid lineup, they have increased their offensive firepower. Even with the loss of Jenks, the bullpen is still solid and deep. Matt Thornton is expected to take over as the closer, after an excellent 2010 where he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.005 WHiP, and 81 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. If he falters, Chris Sale, the first round draft pick in 2010, is ready to take over. After making his debut on August 6, he posted an ERA of 1.93, a 1.071 WHiP, and striking out 32 batters over 23.1 innings. The rotation, while it does not have a specific pitcher that can be pointed to as an 'ace', is filled with pitchers that would be a number two or number three starter on most any other team.
The biggest question mark with the White Sox is how Jake Peavy will return from his injury. He had surgery last summer to reattach his latissimus dormi muscle in his shoulder, which is a procedure that is quite rare in baseball. As of now, his velocity is down, but he is still pitching relatively effectively. However, if he goes down again, that is a major hole to fill.
By virtue of their depth and Ozzie Guillen's ability to somhow make the right moves, the White Sox are the team that should win a very competitive AL Central.
2. Minnesota Twins: The Twins got a major boost this offseason without needing to make a signing in the return of Joe Nathan. With his return to the bullpen, this gives the Twins three pitchers with significant closing experience in Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Like the White Sox, the Twins have a rotation without a specific ace, but all of their pitchers would slot as a number two or three on most other teams. The lineup, when healthy, is very good. Anchored by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, they scored the fifth most runs per game and had the fourth highest OPS in the American League, even with Morneau being out of the lineup after July 8th.
The Twins health is a major concern with Morneau recovering from a severe concussion and the Joe Mauer's tendancy to get hurt. Also, the defense in the outfield is horrible. With the spacious outfield at Target Field, the lack of range between Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel could hurt the Twins in 2011.
The Twins should battle with the White Sox for most of the 2011 season, but in the end, they will fall just short.
3. Detroit Tigers: The Detroit Tigers were quite active this offseason, acquiring Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit as free agents, and resigning Magglio Ordonez. The offense, which was already solid, has improved with these signings and Ordonez's return. Miguel Cabrera and Brendan Boesch will benefit from the improved lineup, as Cabrera will have more protection behind him. Boesch's production decreased when Ordonez got hurt, and he will benefit from having these veteran hitters around him in the lineup. Benoit fortifies a deep bullpen, along with a finally healthy Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde returning as closer.
The primary concern with the Tigers is their rotation. They have a legitimate number one starter in Justin Verlander; however, the rest of the rotation is a major concern. There are no guarantees that Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, or Brad Penny will pitch well. Scherzer did pitch much better after a mid season demotion to AAA last season, but he has yet to show any consistency at the major league level. Rounding out the rotation is Phil Coke, who the Tigers are hoping to convert to starting after he has spent the last three years as a reliever. They also have the spectre of Cabrera's DUI arrest hanging overhead. While i do not expect that to be a distraction, there is still the concern that Selig may suspend him or demand that he re-enters rehab, which would severely hurt the Tigers chances this year.
While the Tigers will be competitive, they simply do not have the rotation to keep up with the White Sox or the Twins. They would need to out slug their opponents to win the division, and they simply are not consistent enough to do so.
4. Cleveland Indians: When you are a team that will be lucky to win 70 games, the greatest strength of the team should not be the bullpen. However, in Cleveland, that is exactly where their strength lies. Chris Perez is a solid closer, and looks to be on his way to becoming one of the elite closers in the game. With him in the bullpen are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, both strong arms that could close if Perez falters. They have some good young players coming up, with Carlos Santana projected to become an elite catcher, and Lonnie Chisenhall expected to debut at third base for them sometime this season. Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera are the main building blocks in the major league lineup, and both are excellent players.
The rest of the lineup is filled with major holes that were not addressed in the offseason. The Indians only major pickup as a free agent was Austin Kearns, which is not a move that inspires much confidence. The Indians are hoping that Travis Hafner remains healthy, that Grady Sizemore is finally healthy, and that Matt LaPorta can show some of the talent that had him considered to be a top prospect, and the key to the C.C. Sabathia trade. Meanwhile, the rotation is littered with AAAA pitchers. Fausto Carmona is the defacto number one, and is the only member of the rotation that could be considered major league material.
The Indians are in for a very long season, and it may be a few years before they are able to seriously expect to contend.
5. Kansas City Royals: Let's be up front - the Royals are not about 2011. They plan on competing in 2012 and beyond.
With that out of the way, the Royals are difficult to forecast for 2011. They have a number of elite prospects on the verge of reaching the majors, several of which may be called up before the September roster expansion. The lineup on opening day will not look anything like the lineup sent on to the field in September. The Royals, being cognisant of having the best system in baseball, signed the free agents they acquired to one year deals, so as to not block any of the prospects for 2012. For the present, they have a great closer in Jaokim Soria, and what promises to be a solid bullpen, despite the likelihood that they will have three rookies playing key roles. Billy Butler continues to hit at a solid level, and while he needs to develop more power, he has essentially become the 2010's version of Mark Grace.
However, this team has absolutely no offense aside from Butler. Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera were brought in as free agents, but will probably be traded by the deadline if the Royals can get anything for them. The rotation has very little to show for it, but once again, this is by design. Zack Greinke, their ace, was traded this offseason to Milwaukee in a move that brought over their shortstop and center fielder for the next few years. However, the Royals are placing their hopes on prospects, which is not always a formula for success. If these players flame out, the Royals are in serious trouble going forward.
The Royals have a great future, and should contend in 2012 and beyond. 2011 is more about giving some of the prospects major league experience than it is about attempting to win the Central.
1. Chicago White Sox: Despite losing their closer in Bobby Jenks, the White Sox had a solid offseason. In signing Adam Dunn as a free agent to bolster an already solid lineup, they have increased their offensive firepower. Even with the loss of Jenks, the bullpen is still solid and deep. Matt Thornton is expected to take over as the closer, after an excellent 2010 where he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.005 WHiP, and 81 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. If he falters, Chris Sale, the first round draft pick in 2010, is ready to take over. After making his debut on August 6, he posted an ERA of 1.93, a 1.071 WHiP, and striking out 32 batters over 23.1 innings. The rotation, while it does not have a specific pitcher that can be pointed to as an 'ace', is filled with pitchers that would be a number two or number three starter on most any other team.
The biggest question mark with the White Sox is how Jake Peavy will return from his injury. He had surgery last summer to reattach his latissimus dormi muscle in his shoulder, which is a procedure that is quite rare in baseball. As of now, his velocity is down, but he is still pitching relatively effectively. However, if he goes down again, that is a major hole to fill.
By virtue of their depth and Ozzie Guillen's ability to somhow make the right moves, the White Sox are the team that should win a very competitive AL Central.
2. Minnesota Twins: The Twins got a major boost this offseason without needing to make a signing in the return of Joe Nathan. With his return to the bullpen, this gives the Twins three pitchers with significant closing experience in Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Like the White Sox, the Twins have a rotation without a specific ace, but all of their pitchers would slot as a number two or three on most other teams. The lineup, when healthy, is very good. Anchored by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, they scored the fifth most runs per game and had the fourth highest OPS in the American League, even with Morneau being out of the lineup after July 8th.
The Twins health is a major concern with Morneau recovering from a severe concussion and the Joe Mauer's tendancy to get hurt. Also, the defense in the outfield is horrible. With the spacious outfield at Target Field, the lack of range between Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel could hurt the Twins in 2011.
The Twins should battle with the White Sox for most of the 2011 season, but in the end, they will fall just short.
3. Detroit Tigers: The Detroit Tigers were quite active this offseason, acquiring Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit as free agents, and resigning Magglio Ordonez. The offense, which was already solid, has improved with these signings and Ordonez's return. Miguel Cabrera and Brendan Boesch will benefit from the improved lineup, as Cabrera will have more protection behind him. Boesch's production decreased when Ordonez got hurt, and he will benefit from having these veteran hitters around him in the lineup. Benoit fortifies a deep bullpen, along with a finally healthy Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde returning as closer.
The primary concern with the Tigers is their rotation. They have a legitimate number one starter in Justin Verlander; however, the rest of the rotation is a major concern. There are no guarantees that Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, or Brad Penny will pitch well. Scherzer did pitch much better after a mid season demotion to AAA last season, but he has yet to show any consistency at the major league level. Rounding out the rotation is Phil Coke, who the Tigers are hoping to convert to starting after he has spent the last three years as a reliever. They also have the spectre of Cabrera's DUI arrest hanging overhead. While i do not expect that to be a distraction, there is still the concern that Selig may suspend him or demand that he re-enters rehab, which would severely hurt the Tigers chances this year.
While the Tigers will be competitive, they simply do not have the rotation to keep up with the White Sox or the Twins. They would need to out slug their opponents to win the division, and they simply are not consistent enough to do so.
4. Cleveland Indians: When you are a team that will be lucky to win 70 games, the greatest strength of the team should not be the bullpen. However, in Cleveland, that is exactly where their strength lies. Chris Perez is a solid closer, and looks to be on his way to becoming one of the elite closers in the game. With him in the bullpen are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, both strong arms that could close if Perez falters. They have some good young players coming up, with Carlos Santana projected to become an elite catcher, and Lonnie Chisenhall expected to debut at third base for them sometime this season. Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera are the main building blocks in the major league lineup, and both are excellent players.
The rest of the lineup is filled with major holes that were not addressed in the offseason. The Indians only major pickup as a free agent was Austin Kearns, which is not a move that inspires much confidence. The Indians are hoping that Travis Hafner remains healthy, that Grady Sizemore is finally healthy, and that Matt LaPorta can show some of the talent that had him considered to be a top prospect, and the key to the C.C. Sabathia trade. Meanwhile, the rotation is littered with AAAA pitchers. Fausto Carmona is the defacto number one, and is the only member of the rotation that could be considered major league material.
The Indians are in for a very long season, and it may be a few years before they are able to seriously expect to contend.
5. Kansas City Royals: Let's be up front - the Royals are not about 2011. They plan on competing in 2012 and beyond.
With that out of the way, the Royals are difficult to forecast for 2011. They have a number of elite prospects on the verge of reaching the majors, several of which may be called up before the September roster expansion. The lineup on opening day will not look anything like the lineup sent on to the field in September. The Royals, being cognisant of having the best system in baseball, signed the free agents they acquired to one year deals, so as to not block any of the prospects for 2012. For the present, they have a great closer in Jaokim Soria, and what promises to be a solid bullpen, despite the likelihood that they will have three rookies playing key roles. Billy Butler continues to hit at a solid level, and while he needs to develop more power, he has essentially become the 2010's version of Mark Grace.
However, this team has absolutely no offense aside from Butler. Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera were brought in as free agents, but will probably be traded by the deadline if the Royals can get anything for them. The rotation has very little to show for it, but once again, this is by design. Zack Greinke, their ace, was traded this offseason to Milwaukee in a move that brought over their shortstop and center fielder for the next few years. However, the Royals are placing their hopes on prospects, which is not always a formula for success. If these players flame out, the Royals are in serious trouble going forward.
The Royals have a great future, and should contend in 2012 and beyond. 2011 is more about giving some of the prospects major league experience than it is about attempting to win the Central.
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