In this culture of instant analysis and overreaction, society has a tendency to have kneejerk reactions to daily events. With a sport that is almost daily, such as baseball, these reactions can be fairly entertaining at times, and at other times pathetic. As of the time that this is being written, teams have played only one of two games, yet people will still react as though it is game 160.
For instance, a quick look at the standings shows that the Royals, Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates all have better records than the Red Sox. Does this mean that the Sox are destined to have a terrible year while those four teams contend for a pennant? No. It means that the Sox lost their opener, while the Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates won theirs. The Royals have split their first two games against the Angels. Yet, after that defeat, Sox fans are, in a fashion typical to our society, reacting as if it is the end of the world. So, as a public service, the following message is being broadcast here on this blog: IT'S ONE GAME!!!! It's not the end of the world. If the Sox are under .500 after July, then feel free to panic.
To further prove this point, look at some performances thus far. Albert Pujols has grounded into three double plays and does not have a hit. Jon Lester gave up three home runs in a game for the first time in his career. He also did not strike out a batter for the first time since 2008. Brett Myers, who has a career mark of 7.46 K's/9, also did not strike out a batter in his start. On the other side of the coin, J.P. Arencibia is leading the American League in batting average (.750), home runs (2), and RBI (5). John Buck and Neil Walker lead the National League in RBI with four. Ramon Hernandez leads baseball in batting average, hitting .800 presently.
Does any of this mean that Pujols and Lester are going to have terrible seasons? Do these statistics mean that Arencibia is going to win the Triple Crown? Is Neil Walker going to keep up his 648 RBI pace? The answer is a resounding NO.
Early season baseball is great for seeing unlikely people at the top of leaderboards and for seeing surprising starts. But remember, everything evens out. There is a reason why Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland A's, maintains that the first two months are for evaluation - because nothing is proven yet. Baseball is about patience. Stay patient with your team and favorite players, and enjoy the season. If they are performing terribly around June/July, then it's time to panic.
Showing posts with label National League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National League. Show all posts
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Saturday, March 19, 2011
2011 Preview - National League West
This is the sixth and final installment of the six part 2011 baseball preview. The teams are ranked in the order of their expected finish.
1. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies managed to hang around in the playoff picture, going 83-79 in 2010 despite losing Troy Tulowitzki for roughly one third of the season. This bodes well for 2011. The Rockies feature a very balanced lineup with legitimate power in Tulo and Carlos Gonzalez, speed in Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith, and a professional hitter in Todd Helton. The bullpen, headed by Huston Street, Rafael Betancourt, and Matt Lindstrom, is solid. The top of the rotation features Ubaldo Jimenez, who had a great season last year, and the underrated Jorge De La Rosa. Jhoulys Chacin showed flashes last season of being a solid major league pitcher, ending with a 3.40 ERA, which is even more impressive since more than half of his starts were in Coors Field.
The biggest concern with the Rockies is their ability to stay healthy. Tulo, Helton, Street, Aaron Cook, and Ian Stewart all missed time last year due to injuries. Stewart is already injured in spring training, and may not be ready for the start of the season. The back of the rotation is also a concern with Cook and Jason Hammel. Neither pitched particularly well last year (Cook had a 5.08 ERA in 23 games last year, Hammel had a 4.81 ERA in 30 games), and will need to show improvement in 2011.
The Rockies are set to leapfrog the Giants and the Padres to capture the National League West. Barring injuries, the Rockies return to the postseason this year.
2. San Fransisco Giants: The 2010 Giants proved that a great rotation and playing smart baseball can lead a team to a World Series Championship. Ace Tim Lincecum heads the staff, followed by the improving Johnathon Sanchez, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner. Barry Zito rounds out the staff as the fifth starter. The bullpen is also very deep, with Brain Wilson, and his beard, slamming the door in the ninth inning. Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo provide a solid bridge to the closer.
With the Giants, their biggest questions involve their lineup. Last season, they only scored 697 runs, which was 17th in baseball, and 8th in the National League. This came on a career year from Aubrey Huff, who should regress. Cody Ross was a revelation in the postseason, but he was released outright by the Marlins in August. Can he continue to hit like he did in October? Miguel Tejada is expected to be the everyday shortstop at age 37, despite the fact that his lack of range and mobility dictates he should be playing third base, if anywhere on the playing field at all. Pablo Sandoval had a very bad season last year - can he rebound? These may be the keys to the Giants being able to compete for the division or the wild card.
While the Giants will have some offensive regression, there should be enough players that improve to keep them in the postseason hunt. Expect the Giants to be the NL Wild Card, based on their pitching staff.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are an enigma. On paper, they appear to be a playoff team and the favorite in the West. However, their end results never equate to the level of talent on the roster. Is it that these players are not as good as they are perceived? Was it that Joe Torre just could not tap into the potential of these players and Don Mattingly will? Is Torre overrated? Prior to joining the Yankees and being handed the talent he had in New York, Torre only made the playoffs once. Add the messy divorce between the McCourts, and the Dodgers have the potential to further regress.
On the plus side, the Dodgers have a very solid rotation. Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Ted Lilly, and Hiroki Kuroda make a good starting four. Johnathon Broxton returns as the closer despite a rough second half of the season in 2010. Hong-Chih Kuo, Kenley Jansen, and Matt Guerrier lead a solid bullpen, and would be good options if Broxton falters again. The lineup is good, with Matt Kemp, Andre Either, and James Loney as the anchors. A healthy Rafael Furcal returns as the catalyst at the top of the order.
This season is going to be interesting in DodgerLand, as Don Mattingly inherits a messy situation. There is a lot of talent here, but it just doesn't translate to success.
4. San Diego Padres: The Padres greatest strengths going into this season are their bullpen and top two starters. Mat Latos and Clayton Richard performed at an excellent level last season, although Latos did wear down in September. The bullpen has an elite closer in Heath Bell, and two potential closers of the future in Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams. Defensively, this is also a very solid ballclub, finishing second in the National League in 2010 with a .988 fielding percentage.
The remainder of the rotation is questionable at best. Tim Stauffer, Wade LeBlanc, and Aaron Harang round out the rotation, and are all question marks. Harang has had two terrible seasons in a row. Stauffer is converting from the bullpen to the rotation, and may take some time to adjust. LeBlanc puts a lot of people on base, but managed to escape most of those situations last year with minimal damage. The lineup also has major problems. They ranked 12th in the National League in runs scored last year, even with Adrian Gonzalez in the lineup. With his trade, the Padres are now leaning heavily on Ryan Ludwick, Brad Hawpe, and Chase Headley to make up the difference. The Padres did improve their team speed with acquiring Cameron Maybin and Jason Bartlett, so expect them to be more aggressive on the basepaths in an effort to manufacture runs.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks are all about potential. Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Justin Upton and Juan Miranda all have the possibility of being star players on offense. In the pitching staff, Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy could turn out to be top of the rotation starters. The top of the lineup has great speed with Upton, Drew, and Young. The rest of the rotation of Joe Saunders, Armando Galarraga, and Zach Duke is solid.
The key on offense is their ability to put the bat on the ball. Trading Mark Reynolds and his 211 strikeouts while implementing a philosophy of being selective will help to lower the 1529 strikeouts that the Diamondbacks had as a team last year, which was 11% higher than the second place team. This will help to improve a team that only managed a .250 batting average in 2010, leading to more runs and a better chance at being competitive.
The Diamondbacks are heading in the right direction. While they are not quite there, expect them to contend in 2012 or 2013.
1. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies managed to hang around in the playoff picture, going 83-79 in 2010 despite losing Troy Tulowitzki for roughly one third of the season. This bodes well for 2011. The Rockies feature a very balanced lineup with legitimate power in Tulo and Carlos Gonzalez, speed in Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith, and a professional hitter in Todd Helton. The bullpen, headed by Huston Street, Rafael Betancourt, and Matt Lindstrom, is solid. The top of the rotation features Ubaldo Jimenez, who had a great season last year, and the underrated Jorge De La Rosa. Jhoulys Chacin showed flashes last season of being a solid major league pitcher, ending with a 3.40 ERA, which is even more impressive since more than half of his starts were in Coors Field.
The biggest concern with the Rockies is their ability to stay healthy. Tulo, Helton, Street, Aaron Cook, and Ian Stewart all missed time last year due to injuries. Stewart is already injured in spring training, and may not be ready for the start of the season. The back of the rotation is also a concern with Cook and Jason Hammel. Neither pitched particularly well last year (Cook had a 5.08 ERA in 23 games last year, Hammel had a 4.81 ERA in 30 games), and will need to show improvement in 2011.
The Rockies are set to leapfrog the Giants and the Padres to capture the National League West. Barring injuries, the Rockies return to the postseason this year.
2. San Fransisco Giants: The 2010 Giants proved that a great rotation and playing smart baseball can lead a team to a World Series Championship. Ace Tim Lincecum heads the staff, followed by the improving Johnathon Sanchez, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner. Barry Zito rounds out the staff as the fifth starter. The bullpen is also very deep, with Brain Wilson, and his beard, slamming the door in the ninth inning. Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo provide a solid bridge to the closer.
With the Giants, their biggest questions involve their lineup. Last season, they only scored 697 runs, which was 17th in baseball, and 8th in the National League. This came on a career year from Aubrey Huff, who should regress. Cody Ross was a revelation in the postseason, but he was released outright by the Marlins in August. Can he continue to hit like he did in October? Miguel Tejada is expected to be the everyday shortstop at age 37, despite the fact that his lack of range and mobility dictates he should be playing third base, if anywhere on the playing field at all. Pablo Sandoval had a very bad season last year - can he rebound? These may be the keys to the Giants being able to compete for the division or the wild card.
While the Giants will have some offensive regression, there should be enough players that improve to keep them in the postseason hunt. Expect the Giants to be the NL Wild Card, based on their pitching staff.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are an enigma. On paper, they appear to be a playoff team and the favorite in the West. However, their end results never equate to the level of talent on the roster. Is it that these players are not as good as they are perceived? Was it that Joe Torre just could not tap into the potential of these players and Don Mattingly will? Is Torre overrated? Prior to joining the Yankees and being handed the talent he had in New York, Torre only made the playoffs once. Add the messy divorce between the McCourts, and the Dodgers have the potential to further regress.
On the plus side, the Dodgers have a very solid rotation. Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Ted Lilly, and Hiroki Kuroda make a good starting four. Johnathon Broxton returns as the closer despite a rough second half of the season in 2010. Hong-Chih Kuo, Kenley Jansen, and Matt Guerrier lead a solid bullpen, and would be good options if Broxton falters again. The lineup is good, with Matt Kemp, Andre Either, and James Loney as the anchors. A healthy Rafael Furcal returns as the catalyst at the top of the order.
This season is going to be interesting in DodgerLand, as Don Mattingly inherits a messy situation. There is a lot of talent here, but it just doesn't translate to success.
4. San Diego Padres: The Padres greatest strengths going into this season are their bullpen and top two starters. Mat Latos and Clayton Richard performed at an excellent level last season, although Latos did wear down in September. The bullpen has an elite closer in Heath Bell, and two potential closers of the future in Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams. Defensively, this is also a very solid ballclub, finishing second in the National League in 2010 with a .988 fielding percentage.
The remainder of the rotation is questionable at best. Tim Stauffer, Wade LeBlanc, and Aaron Harang round out the rotation, and are all question marks. Harang has had two terrible seasons in a row. Stauffer is converting from the bullpen to the rotation, and may take some time to adjust. LeBlanc puts a lot of people on base, but managed to escape most of those situations last year with minimal damage. The lineup also has major problems. They ranked 12th in the National League in runs scored last year, even with Adrian Gonzalez in the lineup. With his trade, the Padres are now leaning heavily on Ryan Ludwick, Brad Hawpe, and Chase Headley to make up the difference. The Padres did improve their team speed with acquiring Cameron Maybin and Jason Bartlett, so expect them to be more aggressive on the basepaths in an effort to manufacture runs.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks are all about potential. Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Justin Upton and Juan Miranda all have the possibility of being star players on offense. In the pitching staff, Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy could turn out to be top of the rotation starters. The top of the lineup has great speed with Upton, Drew, and Young. The rest of the rotation of Joe Saunders, Armando Galarraga, and Zach Duke is solid.
The key on offense is their ability to put the bat on the ball. Trading Mark Reynolds and his 211 strikeouts while implementing a philosophy of being selective will help to lower the 1529 strikeouts that the Diamondbacks had as a team last year, which was 11% higher than the second place team. This will help to improve a team that only managed a .250 batting average in 2010, leading to more runs and a better chance at being competitive.
The Diamondbacks are heading in the right direction. While they are not quite there, expect them to contend in 2012 or 2013.
Friday, March 18, 2011
2011 Preview - National League Central
This is the fifth installment of the six part 2011 baseball preview. Today features the National League Central. Teams are listed in the order of their expected finish.
1. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers are all in on the 2011 season. Given that this is Prince Fielder's last year under Milwaukee control before free agency, the Brewers went out and strip mined the farm system in an attempt to compete this year. Trades for Zack Greinke and Sahun Marcum dramatically improved the rotation. Yovani Gallardo now becomes the number three pitcher. Randy Wolf is a better fit as the fourth starter, as opposed to the number two. Rounding out the rotation is Chris Narveson, who pitched well last year. The offense is solid, anchored by Fielder, Ryan Braun, and the solid Casey McGehee.
Injuries are a concern with the Brewers. Already, Greinke is going to miss some time due to a rib injury, and Marcum is dealing with shoulder tightness. If these injuries cause either pitcher to miss significant time, the Brewers are in trouble. The defense is also a concern. Alcides Escobar, a solid fielding shortstop, was moved in the Greinke trade, and replaced with Yuniesky Betancourt, who is a defensive black hole.
As long as the Brewers enjoy a reasonably healthy season, they should be the favorite to win a fairly strong NL Central.
2. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs offseason may have attracted more attention in the Central had the Brewers not made as many moves. By trading for Matt Garza, they improved their rotation. The signings of Carlos Pena and Kerry Wood improve their defense and bullpen respectively. Pena is a Gold Glove caliber first baseman, and is adept at gathering potentially errant throws. This will help the entire infield, and Starlin Castro in prticular. Wood returned tot he Cubs to set up Carlos Marmol, and as insurance in case Marmol struggles.
The key for the Cubs may be Carlos Zambrano. Last season, prior to the All-Star break, he was 3-6 with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.69 WHiP. After the break, he went 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA and a 1.27 WHiP. Which Zambrano will the Cubs get in 2011? Starlin Castro also has to take the next step in his development. Last year, he hit .300 with 10 stolen bases as a rookie. He was also caught 8 times. Improvement as a base stealer and proving that he can continue to provide a .300 average will be key.
The Cubs are a much better team that most people realize. Should Milwaukee falter, look for them to capitalize and take the NL Central.
3. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are due to regress this season. Last year, Joey Votto and Scott Rolen had excellent seasons to help power the Reds to the playoffs. Votto won the MVP, and should continue to hit at the same level, however Rolen is a concern. At age 35, he hit 20 home runs for the first time since 2006. He also struck out in 15.3% of his at bats, his highest total since 2004. Should the power numbers return to where they have been, and the strikeout rate continues to rise, the Reds suddenly find themselves with a hole in their lineup.
While the Brewers and the Cubs improved, the Reds didn't. They return virtually the same roster from 2010 as they attempt to repeat. However, the Reds do boast a good rotation, headed by Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. The bullpen is solid, with veteran Francisco Cordero closing, and flame throwing Aroldis Chapman as their 8th inning pitcher.
The Reds have a good young team, and will be competitive for a few years. They just don't have enough to win the division in 2011 with the improvements made by the other teams.
4. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are in trouble. Already, Adam Wainwright has been lost for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Chris Carpenter has been dealing with several minor injuries during Spring Training, and given his history, cannot be counted on to pitch the entire season. The spectre of Albert Pujols' impending free agency hangs over this team as well. Colby Rasmus, a very good young player, has somehow incurred the wrath of Tony LaRussa, and was rumored to be on the trading block all offseason.
Despite this, the strength of the Cardinals is their lineup. Pujols is the best player in baseball, and is surrounded by good players in Rasmus, Matt Holliday, and the recently acquired Lance Berkman. Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto improve their middle infield, providing better defense and offense than Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan.
This is going to be an interesting year for the Cardinals, and may implode rapidly. The offense may be enough to keep them in contention for most of the year, but they simply do not have the pitching to keep up.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates are an improving team with several exciting young players ready to make an impact at the major league level. Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, and Andrew McCutchen provide a great core of talent that should be together for years. James McDonald looks like a potential number one starter in the making. The bullpen of All-Star Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan is solid. The Pirates are a much better team than they were in 2010.
However, the Pirates are still a couple of years away. The major league roster does not yet have enough talent to compete with the upper echelon of teams in the Central. There is plenty of talent coming up through the minors with pitching prospects Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie, Rudy Owens, and Luis Heredia ready to produce in the majors within the next two years.
The Pirates are improving. While 2011 may not be the year they end their 18 year run of losing seasons, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
6. Houston Astros: The Astros needed to rebuild long ago, but they had managed to remain close to contention, causing them to keep expending prospects for rental players. Last season, the bottom fell out, and they finally began the rebuilding process. Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman were traded, finally bringing over prospects to help them rebuild. However, this team has very little talent on offense at the major league level. Carlos Lee had his worst season in his career. Michael Bourn, while a Gold Glove center fielder, is not much of a hitter. Speed is his greatest asset, although he strikes out far more than a leadoff hitter should. His OPS+ of 90 proves that he is below league average as a batter.
The one bright spot for the Astros is their rotation. Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ, Brett Myers, and Bud Norris comprise a staff that is surprisingly solid and vastly underrated. Rodriguez and Myers are an excellent top two in any rotation. Happ and Norris have a lot of promise, and have demonstrated the ability to get major league hitters out. Ryan Rowland-Smith is the probable fifth starter, and is a solid fit in any pitching staff.
The Astros are going to be terrible this season, and will be in contention for the top pick in 2012. They delayed rebuilding for too long, and will suffer the consequences for the next few years.
1. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers are all in on the 2011 season. Given that this is Prince Fielder's last year under Milwaukee control before free agency, the Brewers went out and strip mined the farm system in an attempt to compete this year. Trades for Zack Greinke and Sahun Marcum dramatically improved the rotation. Yovani Gallardo now becomes the number three pitcher. Randy Wolf is a better fit as the fourth starter, as opposed to the number two. Rounding out the rotation is Chris Narveson, who pitched well last year. The offense is solid, anchored by Fielder, Ryan Braun, and the solid Casey McGehee.
Injuries are a concern with the Brewers. Already, Greinke is going to miss some time due to a rib injury, and Marcum is dealing with shoulder tightness. If these injuries cause either pitcher to miss significant time, the Brewers are in trouble. The defense is also a concern. Alcides Escobar, a solid fielding shortstop, was moved in the Greinke trade, and replaced with Yuniesky Betancourt, who is a defensive black hole.
As long as the Brewers enjoy a reasonably healthy season, they should be the favorite to win a fairly strong NL Central.
2. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs offseason may have attracted more attention in the Central had the Brewers not made as many moves. By trading for Matt Garza, they improved their rotation. The signings of Carlos Pena and Kerry Wood improve their defense and bullpen respectively. Pena is a Gold Glove caliber first baseman, and is adept at gathering potentially errant throws. This will help the entire infield, and Starlin Castro in prticular. Wood returned tot he Cubs to set up Carlos Marmol, and as insurance in case Marmol struggles.
The key for the Cubs may be Carlos Zambrano. Last season, prior to the All-Star break, he was 3-6 with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.69 WHiP. After the break, he went 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA and a 1.27 WHiP. Which Zambrano will the Cubs get in 2011? Starlin Castro also has to take the next step in his development. Last year, he hit .300 with 10 stolen bases as a rookie. He was also caught 8 times. Improvement as a base stealer and proving that he can continue to provide a .300 average will be key.
The Cubs are a much better team that most people realize. Should Milwaukee falter, look for them to capitalize and take the NL Central.
3. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are due to regress this season. Last year, Joey Votto and Scott Rolen had excellent seasons to help power the Reds to the playoffs. Votto won the MVP, and should continue to hit at the same level, however Rolen is a concern. At age 35, he hit 20 home runs for the first time since 2006. He also struck out in 15.3% of his at bats, his highest total since 2004. Should the power numbers return to where they have been, and the strikeout rate continues to rise, the Reds suddenly find themselves with a hole in their lineup.
While the Brewers and the Cubs improved, the Reds didn't. They return virtually the same roster from 2010 as they attempt to repeat. However, the Reds do boast a good rotation, headed by Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. The bullpen is solid, with veteran Francisco Cordero closing, and flame throwing Aroldis Chapman as their 8th inning pitcher.
The Reds have a good young team, and will be competitive for a few years. They just don't have enough to win the division in 2011 with the improvements made by the other teams.
4. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are in trouble. Already, Adam Wainwright has been lost for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Chris Carpenter has been dealing with several minor injuries during Spring Training, and given his history, cannot be counted on to pitch the entire season. The spectre of Albert Pujols' impending free agency hangs over this team as well. Colby Rasmus, a very good young player, has somehow incurred the wrath of Tony LaRussa, and was rumored to be on the trading block all offseason.
Despite this, the strength of the Cardinals is their lineup. Pujols is the best player in baseball, and is surrounded by good players in Rasmus, Matt Holliday, and the recently acquired Lance Berkman. Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto improve their middle infield, providing better defense and offense than Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan.
This is going to be an interesting year for the Cardinals, and may implode rapidly. The offense may be enough to keep them in contention for most of the year, but they simply do not have the pitching to keep up.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates are an improving team with several exciting young players ready to make an impact at the major league level. Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, and Andrew McCutchen provide a great core of talent that should be together for years. James McDonald looks like a potential number one starter in the making. The bullpen of All-Star Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan is solid. The Pirates are a much better team than they were in 2010.
However, the Pirates are still a couple of years away. The major league roster does not yet have enough talent to compete with the upper echelon of teams in the Central. There is plenty of talent coming up through the minors with pitching prospects Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie, Rudy Owens, and Luis Heredia ready to produce in the majors within the next two years.
The Pirates are improving. While 2011 may not be the year they end their 18 year run of losing seasons, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
6. Houston Astros: The Astros needed to rebuild long ago, but they had managed to remain close to contention, causing them to keep expending prospects for rental players. Last season, the bottom fell out, and they finally began the rebuilding process. Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman were traded, finally bringing over prospects to help them rebuild. However, this team has very little talent on offense at the major league level. Carlos Lee had his worst season in his career. Michael Bourn, while a Gold Glove center fielder, is not much of a hitter. Speed is his greatest asset, although he strikes out far more than a leadoff hitter should. His OPS+ of 90 proves that he is below league average as a batter.
The one bright spot for the Astros is their rotation. Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ, Brett Myers, and Bud Norris comprise a staff that is surprisingly solid and vastly underrated. Rodriguez and Myers are an excellent top two in any rotation. Happ and Norris have a lot of promise, and have demonstrated the ability to get major league hitters out. Ryan Rowland-Smith is the probable fifth starter, and is a solid fit in any pitching staff.
The Astros are going to be terrible this season, and will be in contention for the top pick in 2012. They delayed rebuilding for too long, and will suffer the consequences for the next few years.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
2011 Preview - National League East
This is the fourth installment of the six part 2011 baseball preview. Today is the first of the National League divisions, the NL East. The teams are listed in the order of their anticipated finish.
1. Atlanta Braves: The Braves may have built themselves another dynasty. Their offense, already solid, was improved with the acquisition of Dan Uggla from the Florida Marlins. Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman add youth to a lineup with several veteran bats. Chipper Jones returns for another year, and is looking good thus far in spring training. The pitching staff is solid and deep, with Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens atop the rotation. Top prospects Julio Teheran and Mike Minor headline a crop of young pitchers that are making their way towards the majors.
With the acquisition of Uggla's bat, the Braves also traded for his glove - or lack thereof. While Uggla is not as bad as Brooks Conrad was for the Braves during the 2010 postseason at second, he's not vastly better either. Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters, two young hard throwing relievers, are vying for the closer position vacated by the retired Billy Wagner. Whether or not either will be able to be effective as the closer will be a major question. Also, for the first time since 1990, the Braves do not have the familiar presence of Bobby Cox in the dugout. His hand picked successor, Fredi Gonzalez, takes over this talented club as he tries to lead them back to a perpetual postseason berth.
The Braves are very well set up for 2011 and beyond. They may not have another 14 year run of postseason appearances, but they will be making October appearances for the foreseeable future.
2. Philadelphia Phillies: Ye Gods, this rotation is stacked. With the surprise acquisition of Cliff Lee via free agency, the Phillies can trot out four legitimate aces, as he joins Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels in the rotation. Joe Blanton, their number five starter, would slot as a number three on the majority of teams in baseball. The rotation is backed up by a solid bullpen, as a reborn Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson set up Brad Lidge. Lidge bounced back from a terrible 2009 to post his typically solid season, holding hitters to a .194 batting average, significantly down from the .301 he gave up the year before.
The offense, by name value alone, is solid, despite the loss of Jayson Werth. However, last season the Phillies scored either one run or were shut out in 34 of the 162 games played. Home runs decreased from 224 in 2009 to 166 in 2010. While the age of the lineup is certainly a factor, the Phillies big hitters (Utley, Victorino, Howard, and Rollins) are also seeing fewer fastballs. As batters that do most of their damage on the heater, this trend severely limits their ability to produce.
The rotation should be enough to ensure that the Phillies win majority of their games. But the offense is going to need to rebound in a major fashion for them to win the NL East.
3. Florida Marlins: The Marlins two biggest moves were to trade Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Michael Dunn, and to sign Javier Vazquez. At first, these moves would not cause excitement. However, Infante has proven to be a solid bat, and he solidifies the defense in the middle of the diamond. Dunn was added to a much improved bullpen to help the Marlins protect any leads. Vazquez has historically pitched much better in the National League, and in the NL East in particular. With a rotation fronted by the under appreciated Josh Johnson, and a lineup featuring Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, and some good young talent, the Marlins may be a lot better than people think.
The key for the Marlins will be whether or not the younger players perform up to their potential. Stanton hit 22 home runs in 359 at bats in 2010, and is expected to improve upon that number. Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez had solid rookie seasons, but need to improve for the Marlins to compete. John Buck was brought in as a free agent to solidify the catching position, however he is also a question mark after coming off of a career year in Toronto.
The Marlins will surprise some people in 2011, as long as the young players perform up to their potential. It would not be any surprise if they find themselves ahead of the Phillies at the end of the year.
4. Washington Nationals: The Nationals improved their offense with the signing of Jayson Werth, and also announced their intention to actually build a competitive team at the same time. While they may have overpaid Werth, teams like the Nations have to spend more than market value to attract free agents - look at how the Tigers acquired Ivan Rodriguez. Bryce Harper and the injured Stephan Strasburg headline a crop of elite prospects that will help to improve the Nationals in the next couple of season.
Aside from Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond, there is not much to like about the 2011 major league roster. Majority of the roster would either be bench pieces or be in AAA for clubs that are expected to compete, and even some that won't. Livan Hernandez is expected to lead the rotation, at age 36. If Jordan Zimmerman and Chien-Ming Wang can come back and pitch as well as they had before injury, the pitching staff would look a lot better. Until that time, there just is not a lot of talent here.
The future looks good in Washington, but the 2011 season will still be bad. They will improve over last year, but they are still a couple of years away.
5. New York Mets: To call the New York Mets a train wreck would be disrespectful - to train wrecks. They are much, much worse than that. With the situation involving the Bernie Madoff pyramid scheme, the Mets were financially hog tied and unable to make moves. Aside from David Wright, the only positive for the Mets involves expiring contracts. The mistakes known as Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo run out after 2011, as does 2012. Even though the Wilpon's needed to borrow $25 million from Major League Baseball this offseason, they have $36.5 million dollars off the books next season. Should the option on Francisco Rodriguez's contract not be triggered, that number jumps up to $50.5 million.
This team was a complete disaster, and that was even before the news that Johan Santana may be out for the entire season. Injuries, under performing free agent signings, and a lack of talent permeate the Mets. Jason Bay provided a total of six home runs for the 4 year/$66 million contract he signed. Jose Reyes cannot stay healthy. The rotation, minus Santana, is headed by either Mike Pelfrey or R. A. Dickey. This is what a team with over $133 million in payroll obligations has to look forward to? Really?
The Mets are flat out awful. As much as it would be best to just avert the eyes and ignore this disaster, the perverse interest in watching carnage is the only thing that makes seeing a Mets game worthwhile.
1. Atlanta Braves: The Braves may have built themselves another dynasty. Their offense, already solid, was improved with the acquisition of Dan Uggla from the Florida Marlins. Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman add youth to a lineup with several veteran bats. Chipper Jones returns for another year, and is looking good thus far in spring training. The pitching staff is solid and deep, with Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens atop the rotation. Top prospects Julio Teheran and Mike Minor headline a crop of young pitchers that are making their way towards the majors.
With the acquisition of Uggla's bat, the Braves also traded for his glove - or lack thereof. While Uggla is not as bad as Brooks Conrad was for the Braves during the 2010 postseason at second, he's not vastly better either. Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters, two young hard throwing relievers, are vying for the closer position vacated by the retired Billy Wagner. Whether or not either will be able to be effective as the closer will be a major question. Also, for the first time since 1990, the Braves do not have the familiar presence of Bobby Cox in the dugout. His hand picked successor, Fredi Gonzalez, takes over this talented club as he tries to lead them back to a perpetual postseason berth.
The Braves are very well set up for 2011 and beyond. They may not have another 14 year run of postseason appearances, but they will be making October appearances for the foreseeable future.
2. Philadelphia Phillies: Ye Gods, this rotation is stacked. With the surprise acquisition of Cliff Lee via free agency, the Phillies can trot out four legitimate aces, as he joins Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels in the rotation. Joe Blanton, their number five starter, would slot as a number three on the majority of teams in baseball. The rotation is backed up by a solid bullpen, as a reborn Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson set up Brad Lidge. Lidge bounced back from a terrible 2009 to post his typically solid season, holding hitters to a .194 batting average, significantly down from the .301 he gave up the year before.
The offense, by name value alone, is solid, despite the loss of Jayson Werth. However, last season the Phillies scored either one run or were shut out in 34 of the 162 games played. Home runs decreased from 224 in 2009 to 166 in 2010. While the age of the lineup is certainly a factor, the Phillies big hitters (Utley, Victorino, Howard, and Rollins) are also seeing fewer fastballs. As batters that do most of their damage on the heater, this trend severely limits their ability to produce.
The rotation should be enough to ensure that the Phillies win majority of their games. But the offense is going to need to rebound in a major fashion for them to win the NL East.
3. Florida Marlins: The Marlins two biggest moves were to trade Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Michael Dunn, and to sign Javier Vazquez. At first, these moves would not cause excitement. However, Infante has proven to be a solid bat, and he solidifies the defense in the middle of the diamond. Dunn was added to a much improved bullpen to help the Marlins protect any leads. Vazquez has historically pitched much better in the National League, and in the NL East in particular. With a rotation fronted by the under appreciated Josh Johnson, and a lineup featuring Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, and some good young talent, the Marlins may be a lot better than people think.
The key for the Marlins will be whether or not the younger players perform up to their potential. Stanton hit 22 home runs in 359 at bats in 2010, and is expected to improve upon that number. Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez had solid rookie seasons, but need to improve for the Marlins to compete. John Buck was brought in as a free agent to solidify the catching position, however he is also a question mark after coming off of a career year in Toronto.
The Marlins will surprise some people in 2011, as long as the young players perform up to their potential. It would not be any surprise if they find themselves ahead of the Phillies at the end of the year.
4. Washington Nationals: The Nationals improved their offense with the signing of Jayson Werth, and also announced their intention to actually build a competitive team at the same time. While they may have overpaid Werth, teams like the Nations have to spend more than market value to attract free agents - look at how the Tigers acquired Ivan Rodriguez. Bryce Harper and the injured Stephan Strasburg headline a crop of elite prospects that will help to improve the Nationals in the next couple of season.
Aside from Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond, there is not much to like about the 2011 major league roster. Majority of the roster would either be bench pieces or be in AAA for clubs that are expected to compete, and even some that won't. Livan Hernandez is expected to lead the rotation, at age 36. If Jordan Zimmerman and Chien-Ming Wang can come back and pitch as well as they had before injury, the pitching staff would look a lot better. Until that time, there just is not a lot of talent here.
The future looks good in Washington, but the 2011 season will still be bad. They will improve over last year, but they are still a couple of years away.
5. New York Mets: To call the New York Mets a train wreck would be disrespectful - to train wrecks. They are much, much worse than that. With the situation involving the Bernie Madoff pyramid scheme, the Mets were financially hog tied and unable to make moves. Aside from David Wright, the only positive for the Mets involves expiring contracts. The mistakes known as Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo run out after 2011, as does 2012. Even though the Wilpon's needed to borrow $25 million from Major League Baseball this offseason, they have $36.5 million dollars off the books next season. Should the option on Francisco Rodriguez's contract not be triggered, that number jumps up to $50.5 million.
This team was a complete disaster, and that was even before the news that Johan Santana may be out for the entire season. Injuries, under performing free agent signings, and a lack of talent permeate the Mets. Jason Bay provided a total of six home runs for the 4 year/$66 million contract he signed. Jose Reyes cannot stay healthy. The rotation, minus Santana, is headed by either Mike Pelfrey or R. A. Dickey. This is what a team with over $133 million in payroll obligations has to look forward to? Really?
The Mets are flat out awful. As much as it would be best to just avert the eyes and ignore this disaster, the perverse interest in watching carnage is the only thing that makes seeing a Mets game worthwhile.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
The possible reason behind Chipper's decline
Come this time of year, if you play fantasy baseball, it is around the time when you begin to scout for your leagues. Statistics get crunched, trends are looked at, and a draft list begins to take place. If you happen to be in deep leagues, you look beyond the top 15 at each position, and look for players that may be able to have bounce back or unexpected seasons.
Looking over Chipper Jones' statistics over the past three years, there is a marked decline. Yes, Jones is still taking his walks, however his power has decreased dramatically and his batting average has suffered. Perhaps this is due to age (Jones is 39) and injury, but there may be more to it than that. In 2008, Jones hit .364, leading the National League, and slugged 22 homers. In 2009, that went down to .264 and 18 homers, despite 62 more plate appearances. Last season, in 381 plate appearances, he batted .265 with 10 homers.
Part of this may be due to bad luck. His batting average in balls in play has dropped from .383 in 2008 to .287 in 2009 and .281 in 2010. His career average on BABip is .315, so there is a significant difference there. Also, he has a lower than normal BABip over the past two seasons, as the median falls at .299.
However, there is a disturbing trend that may signify why his BABip is decreasing so rapidly. When he makes contact with an offspeed pitch or a breaking ball on the outside part of the plate, his batting average has fallen rapidly. Back in 2008, his batting average on such pitches .358. This fell to .274 in 2009, and down to an atrocious .136 in 2010.
Typically, when a batter is about to lose his abilities, he is no longer able to keep up with the fastball or maintain his batting eye. With Chipper, this is not the case. He can still hit the fastball, and he can still draw a walk. Yet, he no longer seems to be able to hit softer pitches on the outside half. It will be curious to see how he hits these pitches throughout the spring, and whether or not pitchers begin to throw him more offspeed pitches on the outer half.
Jones has had a great Hall of Fame worthy career. But his time is about up, and it's interesting in how the decline has been this atypical.
Looking over Chipper Jones' statistics over the past three years, there is a marked decline. Yes, Jones is still taking his walks, however his power has decreased dramatically and his batting average has suffered. Perhaps this is due to age (Jones is 39) and injury, but there may be more to it than that. In 2008, Jones hit .364, leading the National League, and slugged 22 homers. In 2009, that went down to .264 and 18 homers, despite 62 more plate appearances. Last season, in 381 plate appearances, he batted .265 with 10 homers.
Part of this may be due to bad luck. His batting average in balls in play has dropped from .383 in 2008 to .287 in 2009 and .281 in 2010. His career average on BABip is .315, so there is a significant difference there. Also, he has a lower than normal BABip over the past two seasons, as the median falls at .299.
However, there is a disturbing trend that may signify why his BABip is decreasing so rapidly. When he makes contact with an offspeed pitch or a breaking ball on the outside part of the plate, his batting average has fallen rapidly. Back in 2008, his batting average on such pitches .358. This fell to .274 in 2009, and down to an atrocious .136 in 2010.
Typically, when a batter is about to lose his abilities, he is no longer able to keep up with the fastball or maintain his batting eye. With Chipper, this is not the case. He can still hit the fastball, and he can still draw a walk. Yet, he no longer seems to be able to hit softer pitches on the outside half. It will be curious to see how he hits these pitches throughout the spring, and whether or not pitchers begin to throw him more offspeed pitches on the outer half.
Jones has had a great Hall of Fame worthy career. But his time is about up, and it's interesting in how the decline has been this atypical.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Cliff Lee's Decision
Up until last night, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Cliff Lee would either end up on the Texas Rangers or on the New York Yankees. Both teams had met with him multiple times, and extended contract offers that were lucritive in both length and dollar amount. Both teams had made it known to him that he was the focal point of their offseasons. It appeared that Lee was destined to either remain in the heart of Texas or to be wearing pinstripes.
Early in the day on Monday, rumors began to swirl that there was a third team that had offered a contract, a mystery team that had bid upon his services. Most pundits dismissed this notion as a negotiating ploy intended to drive up Lee's price on the market. Both the Rangers and Yankees held firm on their offers, secure in their belief that it would be down to those two. Then, late Monday night, Cliff Lee signed. Turns out, there really was a mystery team all along - the Philadelphia Phillies, who had just traded him to Seattle in the past offseason in a three team deal which garnered them Roy Halladay.
The rotation that Philadelhia is going to be sending out now has a top four of Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. This is, quite simply, the best starting rotation in baseball going into 2011. The only team that is even close is the San Fransisco Giants, who they lost to in the NLCS just about a month and a half ago. The Phillies have four bona fide aces that will go out and pitch for eighty percent of their games. Oh, and their number five starter, Joe Blanton? He's gotten 25 wins in the two and a half seasons he's been in Philadelphia, and would slot as a solid number three on a lot of teams.
Speaking of the last NLCS, it appears that the Phillies are taking their defeat to heart. After watching that pitching staff shut down their offense and the offense of the Texas Rangers, they went out and built an even better rotation than the one they faced. Yes, their offense may be slightly worse than it was last season with the departure of Jayson Werth, but he was deemed expendable due to the presence of Dominic Brown, their top prospect. If Brown can produce even a fraction of what Werth gave them, then the trade off is worth it.
As it stands, the road to the World Series in the national League now runs through Philadelphia. Barring injury, no other team can boast the rotation and nucleus the Phillies have. And they are set up to rule the National League for years to come.
Early in the day on Monday, rumors began to swirl that there was a third team that had offered a contract, a mystery team that had bid upon his services. Most pundits dismissed this notion as a negotiating ploy intended to drive up Lee's price on the market. Both the Rangers and Yankees held firm on their offers, secure in their belief that it would be down to those two. Then, late Monday night, Cliff Lee signed. Turns out, there really was a mystery team all along - the Philadelphia Phillies, who had just traded him to Seattle in the past offseason in a three team deal which garnered them Roy Halladay.
The rotation that Philadelhia is going to be sending out now has a top four of Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. This is, quite simply, the best starting rotation in baseball going into 2011. The only team that is even close is the San Fransisco Giants, who they lost to in the NLCS just about a month and a half ago. The Phillies have four bona fide aces that will go out and pitch for eighty percent of their games. Oh, and their number five starter, Joe Blanton? He's gotten 25 wins in the two and a half seasons he's been in Philadelphia, and would slot as a solid number three on a lot of teams.
Speaking of the last NLCS, it appears that the Phillies are taking their defeat to heart. After watching that pitching staff shut down their offense and the offense of the Texas Rangers, they went out and built an even better rotation than the one they faced. Yes, their offense may be slightly worse than it was last season with the departure of Jayson Werth, but he was deemed expendable due to the presence of Dominic Brown, their top prospect. If Brown can produce even a fraction of what Werth gave them, then the trade off is worth it.
As it stands, the road to the World Series in the national League now runs through Philadelphia. Barring injury, no other team can boast the rotation and nucleus the Phillies have. And they are set up to rule the National League for years to come.
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