Chasing Saves

It is one of the cardinal rules in fantasy baseball - Thou Shalt Not Chase Saves. It is just as easy to find a pitcher who will get 30 saves in the later rounds of most drafts as it is to take a closer early. In fact, more often than not, several closers will lose their jobs during the season, and their replacements will be found on the waiver wire. Everyone seems to recognize this.

And yet, such logic is lost in Major League Baseball. Teams are constantly overwhelmed by a high total in the saves category, while ignoring the horrific peripheral statistics. Case in point - the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Fernando Rodney, who just lost his spot as closer, was signed to a two year, $11 million dollar contract after the 2009 season. As the closer for Detroit that year, he had 37 saves, good for sixth in the American League that year. That was enough for the Angels to overlook other statistics that would indicate that Rodney really did not have that good of a season, specifically his 1.467 WHiP, his 1.49 K/BB ratio, his 4.40 ERA (which was good for an ERA+ of 104), and his WAR of 0.5 (barely above replacement level). But he got 37 saves!!!!

This is not the first time the Angels have done this. After the 2008 season, they signed Brian Fuentes to a two year, $17.5 million dollar contract. While Fuentes had a much better year than Rodney in his free agent season, the big number that stands out is his 30 saves. He did provide a solid 2009 for the Angels, leading the American League in saves, but lost his job in 2010 and was traded to the Minnesota Twins for a 26 year old minor league pitcher who has never been above AA. Not exactly a great return on investment.

Meanwhile, teams such as the Atlanta Braes and Oakland A's handle the closer position differently. They cycle different pitchers in, and do not spend a lot of money to fill that role. Since 1991, the following pitchers have led Atlanta in saves: Juan Berenguer (1991), Alejandro Pena (1992), Mike Stanton (1993), Greg McMichael (1994), Mark Wohlers (1995-1997), Kerry Ligtenberg (1998), John Rocker (1999-2001), John Smoltz (2002-2004), Chris Reitsma (2005), Bob Wickman (2006, 2007), Mike Gonzalez (2008), Rafael Soriano (2009), and Billy Wagner (2010). All were quite effective for the Braves, and were not nearly the financial investment of the 'top' closers in baseball.

Oakland, since Eckersley left, have had the following pitchers lead their team in saves: Billy Taylor (1996-1999), Jason Isringhausen (2000, 2001), Billy Koch (2002), Keith Foulke (2003), Octovio Dotel (2004), Huston Street (2005, 2006, 2008), Alan Embree (2007), and Andrew Bailey (2009, 2010). While the A's do not have the same level of turnover as the Braves, they still share the same philosophy - do not spend money on closers.

Closers can be found if teams know what to look at when it comes to a pitcher's statistics. Saves is the last thing the front office should be looking at.

2011 Preview - American League West

On to part three of the 2011 baseball season preview. This time, the American League West is featured. Teams are listed in order of their expected finish.

1. Texas Rangers: The Rangers have an extremely potent offense when healthy. With Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, and Ian Kinsler, the lineup already had several tremendous hitters. Adding Adrian Beltre to that mix makes this already formidable lineup even better. In the bullpen, they have Neftali Feliz, who was the AL Rookie of the Year last year as closer. With the additions of Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes, along with prospect Alexi Ogando, the bullpen is solid.

The biggest concern with the Rangers is their health. Cruz, Hamilton, and Kinsler all missed significant time last season. Hamilton, in particular, is a definate injury concern as he has played in over 135 games just once in his four year career. The rotation is also littered with question marks. Last season, the Rangers had a team ERA of 3.93, but that was also a product of players such as Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter having career years. Cliff Lee is no longer there to solidify the rotation and be that stopper in the event of a losing streak.

Despite this, the Rangers are still the team to beat in the AL West, and should reach the postseason for consecutive years for the first time since 1998 and 1999.

2. Oakland A's: The A's dramatically improved their team this offseason. By adding David DeJesus through trade, and the free agent signings of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, they have solidified a lineup that was anemic at best. While none of these signings are expected to hit 30 or more home runs, they fit perfectly with the ballpark, as they are prototypical doubles hitters. The pitching staff is both young and solid. Brett Anderson looks like a potential ace in the making. Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez are a solid group of pitchers, and should continue to improve this season.

The middle infield is the biggest weakness for this team. Mark Ellis cannot stay healthy, and at age 34, does not promise to gain any durability. Cliff Pennington is a black hole on offense, and is easily replaced. When the Cardinals made Brendan Ryan available, the A's should have made a move to grab him. While he wouldn't prove much more with the bat, he would solidify their infield defense, which Pennington does not.

Even with the questions in the middle of their infield, the A's should contend for the division title, and are my pick for the American League Wild Card.

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels offseason was filled with disappointment. After attempting to get Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford, they made a trade that screamed of desperation by moving Mike Napoli and Jaun Rivera for Vernon Wells and his ridiculous contract. Despite this, the Wells acquisition does improve their defense. The offense is still solid, with the return of Kendry Morales only serving to improve the lineup.

The rotation is a concern after Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. Ervin Santana, Joel Piniero, and Scott Kazmir do not inspire any confidence in their ability (or lack thereof) to get major league hitters out. Kazmir in particular has fallen off dramatically since his trade from Tampa Bay. The closer position is also a potential landmine, with Fernando Rodney and his 1.544 WHiP being counted on to close out ballgames. Rodney has the potential to completely napalm the ninth inning on any given night.

This is a team with a lot of holes and a questionable pitching staff. They will finish far behind the Rangers and the A's.

4. Seattle Mariners: This team is flat out terrible. Aside from Ichiro's hitting ability and his streak of 200 hits per year, and the ability to watch Felix Hernandez pitching, there really are not a lot of reasons to be excited for this ballclub. There are a few promising players coming through the pipeline in Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, and Nick Franklin; however, they need a lot more help.

The offense last season scored a total of 513 runs last year, or just under 3.2 per game. As such, their biggest offseason move was to get rid of Jose Lopez and bring in Brendan Ryan, who provides a great glove but nothing on offense. After Hernandez in the rotation is the AAAA platter of Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Luke French, and the perpetually injured Erik Bedard. This team is terrible beyond comprehension.

The only thing that the Mariners will be competing for in 2011 is the ability to draft first in 2012.