With every fantasy baseball season, there are players that dramatically out perform expectations. On the flip side, there are those players that fail in often spectacular fashion, to the point where they may derail a seemingly promising fantasy run. The key is to notice those players whose statistics from the previous season are not likely to be sustained, and let other people grab them much earlier than they should go. Here are our picks by position:
Catcher – Power hitting catchers that can produce a decent batting average are a scarce commodity. Catchers that hit .320 with 30 home runs are even rarer. Last year, Mike Napoli reached both of those levels with only 432 plate appearances. However, his batting average with inflated by a .344 BABip. In his career, Napoli has had one other season where his BABip was over .300, and that was 2009, when he .272. Yes, playing in Texas will help, but he is much more likely to play like an average catcher than an elite player this year.
First Base – The obvious choice here would be Ryan Howard, as his final at bat in 2011 left him crumpled upon the ground with a torn Achilles. Yet, there is a player who is considered elite at this position whose batting average has decreased in each of the last five seasons. Yes, Mark Teixeira can still hit home runs, but that is about all he can do right now. He has abandoned the concept of trying to put the ball into play to go after home runs with the short porch at Yankee Stadium. While he can provide two categories, he will absolutely kill teams in the other three.
Second Base – Take a player with dramatic home/road splits, questionable health, and a career year in most categories. Put them all together, and you have Ian Kinsler. Kinsler, for his career, hits .309 at home, and just .243 on the road. He has been injured numerous times over his career, so there is no guarantee that he can have a second consecutive year that he does not get injured. Over the past three years, he has hit 31,9, and 32 home runs. His batting average over the course of the year has fluctuated from .253 to .319. Strangely, in both his 30-30 seasons, he had the lowest two batting averages (.253 and .255) of his career. Kinsler is way too inconsistent and injury prone, and is just as likely to be a wasted pick as he is to be a valuable fantasy league producer.
Third Base – Anyone remember Kevin Maas? Or Shane Spenser? Or Sam Horn? Those players looked like elite players over their first 150 at bats in the major leagues, then faded into obscurity. Brett Lawrie may not end up with a career that was as disappointing as the players mentioned, but he is not a guarantee to be a stud either. Lawrie has a history of being a bit of a mental case, and that may derail his career more than anything else. Some publications have him ranked as highly as the third best third baseman in league, which is ridiculous. Classic over-hyped prospect.
Shortstop – Contract year? Check. One reasonably healthy year for a player with an injury history? Check. Big, guaranteed contract? Check. Ladies and gentlemen, meet Jose Reyes! The newly minted Miami Marlin won a batting title and stole 39 bases last year, despite missing time with a hamstring injury. In fact, he has had injuries to both his calf and hamstring over the past three years, which does not bode well for a player who relies on his speed. Reyes is the ultimate risk-reward player at shortstop – he could be great, but he could miss most of the year as well.
Outfield – Over the past two seasons, a total of ten players have combined for 40 home runs and 70 stolen bases. Of those ten, Drew Stubbs has had the lowest batting average and fewest RBI. He has struck out in 28.9% of his plate appearances over his career, and the rate has increased each season. His walk rate, meanwhile, has been around 9%. He has an OPS+ of 96 in his career, and he simply cannot get on base. Normally, a player that has both speed and power is a player to covet, but not if those are the only two things he provides. There is also the possibility that he could gt benched if he starts slowly, since the Reds have a lot of outfield depth. Let someone else jump on the supposed break out year for this 27 year old.
Starting Pitcher – Over the past six years, Josh Beckett has been dominant in odd numbered years, yet decidedly mediocre in even numbered years. Guess what 2012 is. Add to this trend the fact that he seems to be obsessed with an alleged rat in the Boston clubhouse who ruined the ‘Chicken and Beer’ fun, and there is a forecast for disaster. Beckett also does have a bit of an injury history as well. He has been far too inconsistent over his career to expect back-to-back impressive campaigns.
Relief Pitcher – Repeat after me – do not chase saves. Do not draft a closer just because he happened to lead the major leagues in saves, especially if he did so with a below average WHiP and K/9 rate. In short, avoid Jose Valverde. Valverde went 49-49 in save opportunities last season, but how likely is he to repeat that? Valverde is 34, has had his K/9 decrease each of the last six seasons, and has seen his BB/9 climb above 4 for the last couple of seasons. as soon as he starts blowing a few games, he will be nothing more than a replacement level closer in a typical fantasy league.
Showing posts with label fantasy baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy baseball. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Sunday, March 18, 2012
2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
As baseball season approaches, it is time when people start to thing of the important season ahead. And by important season, we mean the upcoming fantasy baseball season – a time when money and bragging rights are on the line. So, to help provide a bit of an edge, here is a list of sleepers – one at each position – to help you on your way.
Catcher – Yes, there are a top six, but the difference between catcher 7 and catcher 20 is not that great. So, the key is to find upside, as that can be found with Wilson Ramos. In 435 plate appearances last year, he had 15 home runs, 52 RBI, and a .267 batting average. Now that Pudge Rodriguez is no longer there to steal at bats, Ramos will have a full season of being the true main catcher in Washington. As a late round catcher, he is capable of bringing 20+ home runs, 70+ RBI, and a batting average over .280. Pretty solid production from a guy that will be considered an afterthought in most drafts.
First Base – Sometimes, a player can tear up AAA pitching, but cannot hit in the majors. However, sometimes players do not get enough of a chance to see what they are capable of. With Mat Gamel, he has never been great defensively, and he has only had 194 mostly forgettable plate appearances. This year, he has been moved from third base to first base, where his iron glove may not be as much of a factor, and will be given the opportunity to produce. He hit for power in the minors, and projects to 20+ home run hitter in his rookie year with a full season of at bats.
Second Base – Dustin Ackley may have had all of the acclaim coming up through the minors, but there was another second baseman on the same track. In fact, Jason Kipnis may be better for fantasy league purposes than Ackley. In under half the at bats, Kipnis had the same amount of home runs, and one fewer stolen base. He will likely be a 15 home run – 15 stolen base player, with upside for more. Don’t be surprised if he becomes a 20-20 player, maybe as soon as this year. A player that can fill all five categories in the middle of the draft? Jump on him.
Third Base – Patterns are amazing things, as they can show likely outcomes. With Mike Moustakas, he has traditionally struggled in his first 150 to 200 at bats, then puts everything together. True to form, he was awful for his first 200 major league at bats as he adjusted, but he began to hit for power shortly thereafter. He also has the bonus of being on the Royals, which traditionally is a two to three round penalty. Ignore the overall stats, and look at his slash line from September, when he went .352/.380/.580 with four home runs.
Shortstop -Zack Cozart was called up for a brief period of time in August, when he promptly got hurt, requiring Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow.He did manage to hit .324, albeit in 37 at bats, but he did have two home runs in that time period. In the minors, he displayed solid power, and a bit of speed, making him a potential double digit threat in both categories. Cozart is expected to be ready by Opening Day, and will fall late in drafts due to his injury and lack of playing time. Regardless, he is a potential double digit player in steals and homers, in a very shallow position.
Outfield – Colby Rasmus was considered a ‘Can’t Miss’ player going into 2011, but promptly ended up on Tony LaRussa’s bad side and was sent to Toronto. All in all, it was a miserable year for a guy that hit .276 with 23 home runs and 12 steals in 2010. This year, he is the classic buy-low player coming off a bad season. Toronto is a launching pad, and Rasmus will be allowed to be himself. The wrist injury he struggled with last season is a thing of the past, and his power stroke will return. Target him as a mid draft player; all the signs point to a huge rebound season.
Starting Pitcher – If a rookie can put together a 5:1 K/BB ratio as a starter, he is worth paying attention to. Last season, Henderson Alvarez did exactly that in his ten starts. Over 63.2 innings, he struck out 40 batters, only walked 8, and produced a 3.53 ERA. Even though he pitches in a launching pad in Toronto, those concerns are lessened given his extreme ground ball tendencies, as 53.5% of his outs came on the ground ball. Yes, he is only 22, and there will be growing pains, but he will dramatically out-perform his draft position this year. As a backup starter, he is a diamond in the rough.
Relief Pitcher – Chris Perez, the closer in Cleveland, is really not that good. His strikeouts have plummeted, and he got very lucky on his batting average on balls in play against him last year. He has also been hurt this preseason, and may not be ready in time for Opening Day. Add all these considerations together, and the signs point to Vinnie Pestano as the closer for the Indians by the end of the year. Pestano had the sixth best K/9 rate of any reliever last season, and got hitters to swing and miss against him 40% of the time. Pestano was far superior to Perez in almost every stat last year, and may have been the closer regardless. With the injury, however, this opens the door for Pestano to be a dominant closer all year.
Catcher – Yes, there are a top six, but the difference between catcher 7 and catcher 20 is not that great. So, the key is to find upside, as that can be found with Wilson Ramos. In 435 plate appearances last year, he had 15 home runs, 52 RBI, and a .267 batting average. Now that Pudge Rodriguez is no longer there to steal at bats, Ramos will have a full season of being the true main catcher in Washington. As a late round catcher, he is capable of bringing 20+ home runs, 70+ RBI, and a batting average over .280. Pretty solid production from a guy that will be considered an afterthought in most drafts.
First Base – Sometimes, a player can tear up AAA pitching, but cannot hit in the majors. However, sometimes players do not get enough of a chance to see what they are capable of. With Mat Gamel, he has never been great defensively, and he has only had 194 mostly forgettable plate appearances. This year, he has been moved from third base to first base, where his iron glove may not be as much of a factor, and will be given the opportunity to produce. He hit for power in the minors, and projects to 20+ home run hitter in his rookie year with a full season of at bats.
Second Base – Dustin Ackley may have had all of the acclaim coming up through the minors, but there was another second baseman on the same track. In fact, Jason Kipnis may be better for fantasy league purposes than Ackley. In under half the at bats, Kipnis had the same amount of home runs, and one fewer stolen base. He will likely be a 15 home run – 15 stolen base player, with upside for more. Don’t be surprised if he becomes a 20-20 player, maybe as soon as this year. A player that can fill all five categories in the middle of the draft? Jump on him.
Third Base – Patterns are amazing things, as they can show likely outcomes. With Mike Moustakas, he has traditionally struggled in his first 150 to 200 at bats, then puts everything together. True to form, he was awful for his first 200 major league at bats as he adjusted, but he began to hit for power shortly thereafter. He also has the bonus of being on the Royals, which traditionally is a two to three round penalty. Ignore the overall stats, and look at his slash line from September, when he went .352/.380/.580 with four home runs.
Shortstop -Zack Cozart was called up for a brief period of time in August, when he promptly got hurt, requiring Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow.He did manage to hit .324, albeit in 37 at bats, but he did have two home runs in that time period. In the minors, he displayed solid power, and a bit of speed, making him a potential double digit threat in both categories. Cozart is expected to be ready by Opening Day, and will fall late in drafts due to his injury and lack of playing time. Regardless, he is a potential double digit player in steals and homers, in a very shallow position.
Outfield – Colby Rasmus was considered a ‘Can’t Miss’ player going into 2011, but promptly ended up on Tony LaRussa’s bad side and was sent to Toronto. All in all, it was a miserable year for a guy that hit .276 with 23 home runs and 12 steals in 2010. This year, he is the classic buy-low player coming off a bad season. Toronto is a launching pad, and Rasmus will be allowed to be himself. The wrist injury he struggled with last season is a thing of the past, and his power stroke will return. Target him as a mid draft player; all the signs point to a huge rebound season.
Starting Pitcher – If a rookie can put together a 5:1 K/BB ratio as a starter, he is worth paying attention to. Last season, Henderson Alvarez did exactly that in his ten starts. Over 63.2 innings, he struck out 40 batters, only walked 8, and produced a 3.53 ERA. Even though he pitches in a launching pad in Toronto, those concerns are lessened given his extreme ground ball tendencies, as 53.5% of his outs came on the ground ball. Yes, he is only 22, and there will be growing pains, but he will dramatically out-perform his draft position this year. As a backup starter, he is a diamond in the rough.
Relief Pitcher – Chris Perez, the closer in Cleveland, is really not that good. His strikeouts have plummeted, and he got very lucky on his batting average on balls in play against him last year. He has also been hurt this preseason, and may not be ready in time for Opening Day. Add all these considerations together, and the signs point to Vinnie Pestano as the closer for the Indians by the end of the year. Pestano had the sixth best K/9 rate of any reliever last season, and got hitters to swing and miss against him 40% of the time. Pestano was far superior to Perez in almost every stat last year, and may have been the closer regardless. With the injury, however, this opens the door for Pestano to be a dominant closer all year.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
It is that time of year again, where baseball is right around the corner. As such, it is also the time of year where fantasy leagues are holding their drafts. Anyone can draft Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez, but leagues are often won in the later rounds by finding sleepers that produce. Here are some sleeper picks by position (average draft position according to ESPN fantasy drafts).
Catcher: Mike Napoli, average draft position: 179. Despite Mike Scioscia's outright reluctance to play Napoli everyday, he managed to hit 20 or more home runs for each of the last three seasons. Now, he finds himself in Texas, and the launching pad that is Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Last season, Napoli's isolated power was .230, which not only led all catchers, but was on par with players such as Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth. Napoli also has first base eligibility, which is a bonus in fantasy. While his batting average will remain around .250, his power is reason enough to wait when the top five catchers are off the board.
First Base: Freddie Freeman, average draft position: 214. Freeman joins Jason Heyward as a part of the next wave of Braves prospects that are expected to lead them to the playoffs. Despite being only 20 years old last year, Freeman hit .319/.378/.521 in AAA. This year, he has been handed the starting first baseman job out of spring training. Again, the average may be a tad bit low since he is only 21 going into this year, but Freeman will provide solid home run and RBI totals in that lineup. For a 21st round selection, a batting line of .270/25/70 is a fairly solid proposition.
Second Base: Brad Emaus, average draft position: none. This pick is not for the faint of heart, as Emaus is not guaranteed a starting job, or to even open the season with the Mets. However, he does have several things working in his favor. First, as a Rule V draftee, the Mets must keep him on the roster, or offer him back to the Toronto Blue Jays. Second, Luis Castillo was released, opening the position. Emaus, over the course of his minor league career, has displayed the ability to get double digit home runs and stolen bases, while hitting in the .280 to .290 range and walking more than he strikes out. For the last pick of a draft, there is a lot more upside here than what would typically be available.
Third Base: David Freese, average draft position: 221. Freese is sliding in drafts due to his injury history, as he has had ankle surgery in each of the past two seasons. While he has yet to really display a lot of power in the majors, he has provided a solid batting average and the ability to get on base. Over the course of his minor league career, he did manage to hit 68 home runs in 1456 at bats, for an average of one home run every 21.4 time to the plate. Should Freese see 400 at bats this year, that would project to 19 home runs. As a 22nd round draft choice, he could be a find as a three or four category provider.
Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, average draft position: 202. At first glance, Escobar's stat line last year was thoroughly unimpressive, as he hit .235 and only stole 10 bases. However, his BABip was only .266, which is extremely low. He also was stuck in the eighth spot in the batting order for the Brewers, where he did not steal as much due to hitting in front of the pitcher. With the trade to Kansas City, expect Escobar to run more, as they try to manufacture runs. Over the course of his minor league career, he stole 176 bases with a .293 batting average. Thirty steals and a .270 batting average and a decent run total is a fair expectation, and is quite good from a shortstop.
Outfield: Nate McLouth, average draft position: 226. McLouth is another bounce back candidate. 2010 was a wasted season for him, as he hit bad enough to be demoted to AAA. However, when he was given another opportunity in September, he responded by hitting at a respectable .263/.358/.509 with three home runs and three stolen bases over his final 23 games. Also, it is worth noting that prior to last season's disaster, he had hit 46 home runs and had 42 stolen bases over the previous two seasons. He is still only going to be 29 this season, so there is not yet any reason to think that he has lost his ability to hit. Given how he finished last season, the possibility of McLouth returning to 20 home run/20 stolen base form cannot be dismissed. Potentially finding that type of talent in the 22nd round makes him worth the investment.
Starting Pitcher: Jhoulys Chacin, average draft position: 175. Yes, a Colorado Rockies pitcher. Chacin went 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA, a 1.14 WHip, and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings over his last eight starts. Overall for the season, Chacin struck out 9.04 batters per nine, while providing an ERA of 3.28. Proving that pitching in Colorado is not a factor, he had a 3.98 ERA at Coors Field. Chacin opens the season with a spot in the rotation locked up, and is capable of providing numbers similar to pitchers being drafted five rounds before him. Ignore the fact that he pitches for the Rockies, and look at what Chacin is - a four category provider at starting pitching that is being drafted much later than he should be.
Relief Pitcher: Jake McGee, average draft position: 219. Every year, people draft relief pitchers too early, falling into the trap that they must grab saves. Yet, every year, there are pitchers that no one had even thought to draft that end up as closers. After all, how many people had John Axford at the start of 2010? McGee, who was a top starting pitching prospect for Tampa prior to injuring his elbow in 2008, appears to be that person this year. At AAA, he struck out 27 batters against three walks in 17.1 innings. In his five inning major league debut, he struck out six while only allowing two hits. He has a mid-90's fastball and a very good slider, which is all that one needs as a closer. Add in the fact that McGee is left handed, and that Kyle Farnsworth has the most closing experience on the Tampa Bay Rays roster, and McGee appears destined for 30+ saves.
Even if none of these players pan out when drafted, there is really no risk. By taking sleepers as opposed to the safe pick, the chance for reward is far greater. After all, everyone knows what Mark Buehrle will put up. But if one can draft someone that is equal to a Wandy Rodriguez instead, then that makes it worth the gamble. Players like Buehrle will be available on the waiver wire if the sleepers don't pan out.
Catcher: Mike Napoli, average draft position: 179. Despite Mike Scioscia's outright reluctance to play Napoli everyday, he managed to hit 20 or more home runs for each of the last three seasons. Now, he finds himself in Texas, and the launching pad that is Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Last season, Napoli's isolated power was .230, which not only led all catchers, but was on par with players such as Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth. Napoli also has first base eligibility, which is a bonus in fantasy. While his batting average will remain around .250, his power is reason enough to wait when the top five catchers are off the board.
First Base: Freddie Freeman, average draft position: 214. Freeman joins Jason Heyward as a part of the next wave of Braves prospects that are expected to lead them to the playoffs. Despite being only 20 years old last year, Freeman hit .319/.378/.521 in AAA. This year, he has been handed the starting first baseman job out of spring training. Again, the average may be a tad bit low since he is only 21 going into this year, but Freeman will provide solid home run and RBI totals in that lineup. For a 21st round selection, a batting line of .270/25/70 is a fairly solid proposition.
Second Base: Brad Emaus, average draft position: none. This pick is not for the faint of heart, as Emaus is not guaranteed a starting job, or to even open the season with the Mets. However, he does have several things working in his favor. First, as a Rule V draftee, the Mets must keep him on the roster, or offer him back to the Toronto Blue Jays. Second, Luis Castillo was released, opening the position. Emaus, over the course of his minor league career, has displayed the ability to get double digit home runs and stolen bases, while hitting in the .280 to .290 range and walking more than he strikes out. For the last pick of a draft, there is a lot more upside here than what would typically be available.
Third Base: David Freese, average draft position: 221. Freese is sliding in drafts due to his injury history, as he has had ankle surgery in each of the past two seasons. While he has yet to really display a lot of power in the majors, he has provided a solid batting average and the ability to get on base. Over the course of his minor league career, he did manage to hit 68 home runs in 1456 at bats, for an average of one home run every 21.4 time to the plate. Should Freese see 400 at bats this year, that would project to 19 home runs. As a 22nd round draft choice, he could be a find as a three or four category provider.
Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, average draft position: 202. At first glance, Escobar's stat line last year was thoroughly unimpressive, as he hit .235 and only stole 10 bases. However, his BABip was only .266, which is extremely low. He also was stuck in the eighth spot in the batting order for the Brewers, where he did not steal as much due to hitting in front of the pitcher. With the trade to Kansas City, expect Escobar to run more, as they try to manufacture runs. Over the course of his minor league career, he stole 176 bases with a .293 batting average. Thirty steals and a .270 batting average and a decent run total is a fair expectation, and is quite good from a shortstop.
Outfield: Nate McLouth, average draft position: 226. McLouth is another bounce back candidate. 2010 was a wasted season for him, as he hit bad enough to be demoted to AAA. However, when he was given another opportunity in September, he responded by hitting at a respectable .263/.358/.509 with three home runs and three stolen bases over his final 23 games. Also, it is worth noting that prior to last season's disaster, he had hit 46 home runs and had 42 stolen bases over the previous two seasons. He is still only going to be 29 this season, so there is not yet any reason to think that he has lost his ability to hit. Given how he finished last season, the possibility of McLouth returning to 20 home run/20 stolen base form cannot be dismissed. Potentially finding that type of talent in the 22nd round makes him worth the investment.
Starting Pitcher: Jhoulys Chacin, average draft position: 175. Yes, a Colorado Rockies pitcher. Chacin went 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA, a 1.14 WHip, and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings over his last eight starts. Overall for the season, Chacin struck out 9.04 batters per nine, while providing an ERA of 3.28. Proving that pitching in Colorado is not a factor, he had a 3.98 ERA at Coors Field. Chacin opens the season with a spot in the rotation locked up, and is capable of providing numbers similar to pitchers being drafted five rounds before him. Ignore the fact that he pitches for the Rockies, and look at what Chacin is - a four category provider at starting pitching that is being drafted much later than he should be.
Relief Pitcher: Jake McGee, average draft position: 219. Every year, people draft relief pitchers too early, falling into the trap that they must grab saves. Yet, every year, there are pitchers that no one had even thought to draft that end up as closers. After all, how many people had John Axford at the start of 2010? McGee, who was a top starting pitching prospect for Tampa prior to injuring his elbow in 2008, appears to be that person this year. At AAA, he struck out 27 batters against three walks in 17.1 innings. In his five inning major league debut, he struck out six while only allowing two hits. He has a mid-90's fastball and a very good slider, which is all that one needs as a closer. Add in the fact that McGee is left handed, and that Kyle Farnsworth has the most closing experience on the Tampa Bay Rays roster, and McGee appears destined for 30+ saves.
Even if none of these players pan out when drafted, there is really no risk. By taking sleepers as opposed to the safe pick, the chance for reward is far greater. After all, everyone knows what Mark Buehrle will put up. But if one can draft someone that is equal to a Wandy Rodriguez instead, then that makes it worth the gamble. Players like Buehrle will be available on the waiver wire if the sleepers don't pan out.
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