The rise of Jose Bautista from continual afterthought to power hitting monster is quite the interesting one. Bautista was drafted in the 20th round of the 2000 amateur draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He toiled in the minors for three years, never rising higher than A ball. His best season came in 2002, when he hit .301 with 14 home runs and 57 RBI. Throughout his minor league career, he struck out more than he walked, had mediocre power numbers, really didn't have a set position.
In 2004, Bautista racked up more miles than an airline pilot. He was selected by the Baltimore Orioles in the Rule V Draft, at which point in time he was considered their 12th best prospect. At the time, Baseball America said in their Prospect Handbook that “Bautista has a quick bat and can catch up to the best fastballs. His power potential is his best tool.” Still, he was not an elite talent.
Since Bautista was a Rule V draftee, Baltimore had to keep him on the Major League roster, or waive him. After 16 games and 12 plate appearances, on June 3rd, they placed him on waivers. The Tampa Bay Rays picked him up, where he logged 12 games and 15 plate appearances. Failing to impress the Tampa front office, he was sold to the Kansas City Royals on June 28th. With the Royals, he logged 13 games and 26 plate appearances. In those plate appearances, he struck out 12 times. Thoroughly unimpressed, the Royals traded Bautista to the New York Mets for Justin Huber on July 30th. Bautista never actually suited up for the Mets, as he was traded with Ty Wigginton and minor leaguer Matt Peterson back to Pittsburgh, in exchange for Kris Benson (and his wife) and Jeff Keppinger later the same day. Bautista would spend the rest of the year in Pittsburgh, where he would get another 43 plate appearances, and striking out 18 times. With all of these transactions, Bautista became the first, and only, player to be on five different teams in one season.
In 2005, Bautista spent most of 2005 in the minors, playing primarily in AA, where he hit .283 with 23 home runs. In 2006 and 2007, Bautista stuck with the Pirates, playing as a super utility player in 2006, and the primary third baseman in 2007. Then came 2008. He started off as Pittsburgh's primary third baseman, but the organization lost faith in him after he struggled to hit .242 with only 12 home runs. Frustrated, the Pirates acquired Andy LaRoche, then sent Bautista down to AAA. Finally, on August 21st, he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays, who sent Robinzon Diaz over to complete the trade on the 25th.
2009 appeared to be just like every other season for Bautista. He played in left, right, and at third for the Blue Jays, showing very little of the power potential that made him a mid-level prospect. He appeared that he was simply a utility player, someone that would never quite reach his projections. Then, in September 2009, Toronto's hitting coach Dwayne Murphy made some adjustments to Bautista's swing. Suddenly, everything clicked, and Bautista would hit 10 home runs in the month of September.
Despite the power surge over the last month of the season, Bautista hit a total of 13 home runs in 2009. Because of this, he was overlooked going in to the 2010 season. From the start, he showed that his production in September was not a fluke, as he started to hit. By May 24, 2010, he had hit 14 home runs. He was selected to the American League All-Star team, and led the AL in home runs with 54, shattering his previous best of 16, set in 2006. He would finish fourth in the MVP vote, and earn his first Silver Slugger award.
This year, Joey Bats as he is now known, is back at it again. Through 37 games, he is leading the AL in home runs again, with 18. In his last 162 games, Bautista has hit 63 home runs. Next on the list is Albert Pujols, who has hit 41.
So, why do people refuse to acknowledge what Bautista is accomplishing? Is it the immediate suspicion that, even though one can plainly see the difference in his swing, that this surge cannot be natural? Is it because he plays in Toronto? Regardless of the reasoning, Bautista's transformation has been nothing short of remarkable. He has gone from being an unknown utility player to a feared slugger in roughly one year. Time to pay attention.
Showing posts with label American League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label American League. Show all posts
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Red Sox and Rays - Out Of Playoff Contention?
It is still very early in the baseball season, with the first week just being concluded. However, there are still two teams that have yet to taste victory. One is the Tampa Bay Rays, which may not be much of a surprise given the talent they lost this offseason. The second is the Boston Red Sox, which is shocking considering how most experts predicted them to win the World Series.
For the Red Sox or the Rays to win the World Series after this start would truly be historic. The worst start for a team to still make the playoffs is 0-5, by the 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates and the 1995 Cincinnati Reds. Both the Red Sox and Rays find themselves at 0-6 presently.
Now does this mean that both teams are already out of playoff attention? Not at all. If either of these teams lost six games in a row in the middle of the season, analysts would be paying much less attention. However, this is at the start of the year, where the accumulating losses are more obvious, especially when both teams have been swept by teams that were expected to be terrible (the Rays by Baltimore, the Sox by Cleveland).
The Rays have become just the second team to go from having the best record in the American League to 0-5, joining the 1905 Red Sox. They have been horrendous on offense, becoming the fourth team since 1919 to score one or fewer runs in five of their first six games. The Rays rank dead last in baseball in runs (7), batting average (.136), on base percentage (.218), and slugging (.260). The Sox, meanwhile, are 29th in batting average (.190) and 26th in runs (16). The biggest issue for Boston, even more than their offense, has been their pitching. They rank dead last in ERA (8.33), 29th in WHiP (1.68), had not had a quality start until today.
So, are both teams out of it already? In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'til it's over." But the odds are certainly stacked against both clubs after the first week.
For the Red Sox or the Rays to win the World Series after this start would truly be historic. The worst start for a team to still make the playoffs is 0-5, by the 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates and the 1995 Cincinnati Reds. Both the Red Sox and Rays find themselves at 0-6 presently.
Now does this mean that both teams are already out of playoff attention? Not at all. If either of these teams lost six games in a row in the middle of the season, analysts would be paying much less attention. However, this is at the start of the year, where the accumulating losses are more obvious, especially when both teams have been swept by teams that were expected to be terrible (the Rays by Baltimore, the Sox by Cleveland).
The Rays have become just the second team to go from having the best record in the American League to 0-5, joining the 1905 Red Sox. They have been horrendous on offense, becoming the fourth team since 1919 to score one or fewer runs in five of their first six games. The Rays rank dead last in baseball in runs (7), batting average (.136), on base percentage (.218), and slugging (.260). The Sox, meanwhile, are 29th in batting average (.190) and 26th in runs (16). The biggest issue for Boston, even more than their offense, has been their pitching. They rank dead last in ERA (8.33), 29th in WHiP (1.68), had not had a quality start until today.
So, are both teams out of it already? In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'til it's over." But the odds are certainly stacked against both clubs after the first week.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
It's Still Early
In this culture of instant analysis and overreaction, society has a tendency to have kneejerk reactions to daily events. With a sport that is almost daily, such as baseball, these reactions can be fairly entertaining at times, and at other times pathetic. As of the time that this is being written, teams have played only one of two games, yet people will still react as though it is game 160.
For instance, a quick look at the standings shows that the Royals, Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates all have better records than the Red Sox. Does this mean that the Sox are destined to have a terrible year while those four teams contend for a pennant? No. It means that the Sox lost their opener, while the Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates won theirs. The Royals have split their first two games against the Angels. Yet, after that defeat, Sox fans are, in a fashion typical to our society, reacting as if it is the end of the world. So, as a public service, the following message is being broadcast here on this blog: IT'S ONE GAME!!!! It's not the end of the world. If the Sox are under .500 after July, then feel free to panic.
To further prove this point, look at some performances thus far. Albert Pujols has grounded into three double plays and does not have a hit. Jon Lester gave up three home runs in a game for the first time in his career. He also did not strike out a batter for the first time since 2008. Brett Myers, who has a career mark of 7.46 K's/9, also did not strike out a batter in his start. On the other side of the coin, J.P. Arencibia is leading the American League in batting average (.750), home runs (2), and RBI (5). John Buck and Neil Walker lead the National League in RBI with four. Ramon Hernandez leads baseball in batting average, hitting .800 presently.
Does any of this mean that Pujols and Lester are going to have terrible seasons? Do these statistics mean that Arencibia is going to win the Triple Crown? Is Neil Walker going to keep up his 648 RBI pace? The answer is a resounding NO.
Early season baseball is great for seeing unlikely people at the top of leaderboards and for seeing surprising starts. But remember, everything evens out. There is a reason why Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland A's, maintains that the first two months are for evaluation - because nothing is proven yet. Baseball is about patience. Stay patient with your team and favorite players, and enjoy the season. If they are performing terribly around June/July, then it's time to panic.
For instance, a quick look at the standings shows that the Royals, Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates all have better records than the Red Sox. Does this mean that the Sox are destined to have a terrible year while those four teams contend for a pennant? No. It means that the Sox lost their opener, while the Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates won theirs. The Royals have split their first two games against the Angels. Yet, after that defeat, Sox fans are, in a fashion typical to our society, reacting as if it is the end of the world. So, as a public service, the following message is being broadcast here on this blog: IT'S ONE GAME!!!! It's not the end of the world. If the Sox are under .500 after July, then feel free to panic.
To further prove this point, look at some performances thus far. Albert Pujols has grounded into three double plays and does not have a hit. Jon Lester gave up three home runs in a game for the first time in his career. He also did not strike out a batter for the first time since 2008. Brett Myers, who has a career mark of 7.46 K's/9, also did not strike out a batter in his start. On the other side of the coin, J.P. Arencibia is leading the American League in batting average (.750), home runs (2), and RBI (5). John Buck and Neil Walker lead the National League in RBI with four. Ramon Hernandez leads baseball in batting average, hitting .800 presently.
Does any of this mean that Pujols and Lester are going to have terrible seasons? Do these statistics mean that Arencibia is going to win the Triple Crown? Is Neil Walker going to keep up his 648 RBI pace? The answer is a resounding NO.
Early season baseball is great for seeing unlikely people at the top of leaderboards and for seeing surprising starts. But remember, everything evens out. There is a reason why Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland A's, maintains that the first two months are for evaluation - because nothing is proven yet. Baseball is about patience. Stay patient with your team and favorite players, and enjoy the season. If they are performing terribly around June/July, then it's time to panic.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
2011 Preview - American League West
On to part three of the 2011 baseball season preview. This time, the American League West is featured. Teams are listed in order of their expected finish.
1. Texas Rangers: The Rangers have an extremely potent offense when healthy. With Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, and Ian Kinsler, the lineup already had several tremendous hitters. Adding Adrian Beltre to that mix makes this already formidable lineup even better. In the bullpen, they have Neftali Feliz, who was the AL Rookie of the Year last year as closer. With the additions of Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes, along with prospect Alexi Ogando, the bullpen is solid.
The biggest concern with the Rangers is their health. Cruz, Hamilton, and Kinsler all missed significant time last season. Hamilton, in particular, is a definate injury concern as he has played in over 135 games just once in his four year career. The rotation is also littered with question marks. Last season, the Rangers had a team ERA of 3.93, but that was also a product of players such as Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter having career years. Cliff Lee is no longer there to solidify the rotation and be that stopper in the event of a losing streak.
Despite this, the Rangers are still the team to beat in the AL West, and should reach the postseason for consecutive years for the first time since 1998 and 1999.
2. Oakland A's: The A's dramatically improved their team this offseason. By adding David DeJesus through trade, and the free agent signings of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, they have solidified a lineup that was anemic at best. While none of these signings are expected to hit 30 or more home runs, they fit perfectly with the ballpark, as they are prototypical doubles hitters. The pitching staff is both young and solid. Brett Anderson looks like a potential ace in the making. Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez are a solid group of pitchers, and should continue to improve this season.
The middle infield is the biggest weakness for this team. Mark Ellis cannot stay healthy, and at age 34, does not promise to gain any durability. Cliff Pennington is a black hole on offense, and is easily replaced. When the Cardinals made Brendan Ryan available, the A's should have made a move to grab him. While he wouldn't prove much more with the bat, he would solidify their infield defense, which Pennington does not.
Even with the questions in the middle of their infield, the A's should contend for the division title, and are my pick for the American League Wild Card.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels offseason was filled with disappointment. After attempting to get Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford, they made a trade that screamed of desperation by moving Mike Napoli and Jaun Rivera for Vernon Wells and his ridiculous contract. Despite this, the Wells acquisition does improve their defense. The offense is still solid, with the return of Kendry Morales only serving to improve the lineup.
The rotation is a concern after Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. Ervin Santana, Joel Piniero, and Scott Kazmir do not inspire any confidence in their ability (or lack thereof) to get major league hitters out. Kazmir in particular has fallen off dramatically since his trade from Tampa Bay. The closer position is also a potential landmine, with Fernando Rodney and his 1.544 WHiP being counted on to close out ballgames. Rodney has the potential to completely napalm the ninth inning on any given night.
This is a team with a lot of holes and a questionable pitching staff. They will finish far behind the Rangers and the A's.
4. Seattle Mariners: This team is flat out terrible. Aside from Ichiro's hitting ability and his streak of 200 hits per year, and the ability to watch Felix Hernandez pitching, there really are not a lot of reasons to be excited for this ballclub. There are a few promising players coming through the pipeline in Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, and Nick Franklin; however, they need a lot more help.
The offense last season scored a total of 513 runs last year, or just under 3.2 per game. As such, their biggest offseason move was to get rid of Jose Lopez and bring in Brendan Ryan, who provides a great glove but nothing on offense. After Hernandez in the rotation is the AAAA platter of Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Luke French, and the perpetually injured Erik Bedard. This team is terrible beyond comprehension.
The only thing that the Mariners will be competing for in 2011 is the ability to draft first in 2012.
1. Texas Rangers: The Rangers have an extremely potent offense when healthy. With Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, and Ian Kinsler, the lineup already had several tremendous hitters. Adding Adrian Beltre to that mix makes this already formidable lineup even better. In the bullpen, they have Neftali Feliz, who was the AL Rookie of the Year last year as closer. With the additions of Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes, along with prospect Alexi Ogando, the bullpen is solid.
The biggest concern with the Rangers is their health. Cruz, Hamilton, and Kinsler all missed significant time last season. Hamilton, in particular, is a definate injury concern as he has played in over 135 games just once in his four year career. The rotation is also littered with question marks. Last season, the Rangers had a team ERA of 3.93, but that was also a product of players such as Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter having career years. Cliff Lee is no longer there to solidify the rotation and be that stopper in the event of a losing streak.
Despite this, the Rangers are still the team to beat in the AL West, and should reach the postseason for consecutive years for the first time since 1998 and 1999.
2. Oakland A's: The A's dramatically improved their team this offseason. By adding David DeJesus through trade, and the free agent signings of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, they have solidified a lineup that was anemic at best. While none of these signings are expected to hit 30 or more home runs, they fit perfectly with the ballpark, as they are prototypical doubles hitters. The pitching staff is both young and solid. Brett Anderson looks like a potential ace in the making. Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez are a solid group of pitchers, and should continue to improve this season.
The middle infield is the biggest weakness for this team. Mark Ellis cannot stay healthy, and at age 34, does not promise to gain any durability. Cliff Pennington is a black hole on offense, and is easily replaced. When the Cardinals made Brendan Ryan available, the A's should have made a move to grab him. While he wouldn't prove much more with the bat, he would solidify their infield defense, which Pennington does not.
Even with the questions in the middle of their infield, the A's should contend for the division title, and are my pick for the American League Wild Card.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels offseason was filled with disappointment. After attempting to get Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford, they made a trade that screamed of desperation by moving Mike Napoli and Jaun Rivera for Vernon Wells and his ridiculous contract. Despite this, the Wells acquisition does improve their defense. The offense is still solid, with the return of Kendry Morales only serving to improve the lineup.
The rotation is a concern after Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. Ervin Santana, Joel Piniero, and Scott Kazmir do not inspire any confidence in their ability (or lack thereof) to get major league hitters out. Kazmir in particular has fallen off dramatically since his trade from Tampa Bay. The closer position is also a potential landmine, with Fernando Rodney and his 1.544 WHiP being counted on to close out ballgames. Rodney has the potential to completely napalm the ninth inning on any given night.
This is a team with a lot of holes and a questionable pitching staff. They will finish far behind the Rangers and the A's.
4. Seattle Mariners: This team is flat out terrible. Aside from Ichiro's hitting ability and his streak of 200 hits per year, and the ability to watch Felix Hernandez pitching, there really are not a lot of reasons to be excited for this ballclub. There are a few promising players coming through the pipeline in Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, and Nick Franklin; however, they need a lot more help.
The offense last season scored a total of 513 runs last year, or just under 3.2 per game. As such, their biggest offseason move was to get rid of Jose Lopez and bring in Brendan Ryan, who provides a great glove but nothing on offense. After Hernandez in the rotation is the AAAA platter of Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Luke French, and the perpetually injured Erik Bedard. This team is terrible beyond comprehension.
The only thing that the Mariners will be competing for in 2011 is the ability to draft first in 2012.
Monday, March 14, 2011
2011 Preview - American League East
This is the first part of what is going to be a six part 2011 baseball preview. For Part One, the American League East is reviewed. The teams are listed in the order that I anticipate them finishing in.
1. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox easily had the best offseason of any team in baseball. Signing Carl Crawford as a free agent and trading for Adrian Gonzalez dramatically improves a lineup that was already formidable in it's own right. The rotation features four starters that could be the number one on any number of teams in Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey. The bench is filled with solid depth players and veterans. This is a team with very few weaknesses, and is the best team on paper.
There are several questions on the Sox, but they are relatively minor. First is the health on their team. Youkilis, Pedroia, and Ellsbury all missed significant time last year. Gonzalez is coming off of shoulder surgery. By all indications, they are all healthy and ready to go. Also, one must ask where Johnathon Papelbon's head is at. For him, he had an off year last year, and the Sox brought in Bobby Jenks in the event that he falters once again.
Nonetheless, this is the team that will win the AL East, and is likely to be the American League representative in the World Series.
2. Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays managed to win 85 games last season despite Aaron Hill and Adam Lind hitting .205 and .237 respectively. While Jose Bautista's power is expected to decrease this season after hitting 54 home runs last year, it is worth noting that he hit 10 in September of 2009 after an adjustment to his batting stance. Even with a dropoff from Bautista, improved production from Lind and Hill should more than make up for the difference.
Despite trading Shaun Marcum to the Brewers, the Blue Jays still have a deep rotation. Brendan Morrow, Ricky Romero, and Brett Cecil all did a solid job last year. Jesse Litsch is being added to the mix, as he spent most of last year recovering from injuries. The fifth spot int he rotation is a battle between prospect Kyle Drabek and Marc Rzepczynski. The bullpen has been improved with the addition of Frank Francisco as their presumed closer.
The Blue Jays are a team with a good direction and a solid future. 2012 is the more likely year to expect them to begin to contend for the postseason, but this team has the potential to accelerate that curve.
3. New York Yankees: Despite their best efforts on the free agent front, the Yankees found themselves in an unusual situation - perusing the bargain bin looking for potential bargains. After missing out on Cliff Lee, they signed a plethora of low risk free agent pitchers in Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia. Russell Martin was signed to take over as the primary catcher from Jorge Posada. Rafeal Soriano was brought in to solidify the bullpen and as insurance in the even that the ageless Mariano Rivera falters. However, the Soriano signing was curious given the contract (3 years for $15 million) and that General Manager Brian Cashman went out of his way to remove himself from that signing.
The core of the Yankees in Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, and Rivera are getting old. Posada and A-Rod have become injury risks, and Posada has essentially become the Yankees full time DH at this stage of his career. The rotation behind C.C. Sabathia is littered with question marks and unproven talent. A.J. Burnett can be napalm at any given moment. Phil Hughes had a solid year in 2010, but is he able to build off of that? The battle for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation is uninspiring at best, with Colon, Garcia, Ivan Nova, and Sergio Mitre battling to make the roster. Not exactly the team that one pictures the Yankees having.
Age and a lack of organizational depth that is ready to perform at the major league level are due to catch up to the Yankees. 2011 should be the first sign of slippage.
4. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays got absolutely hammered in this offseason. They lost their starting first baseman in Carlos Pena, their closer in Rafael Soriano, and their starting left fielder in Carl Crawford through free agency. Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett were traded away for increased financial flexibility. This is a team that is definitely in rebuilding mode, and are planning on contending in another couple of seasons.
However, the Rays possess one of the best managers in baseball in Joe Maddon, a deep minor league system filled with prospects, and a smart front office. They have a plan, and they know how to execute it to perfection. It may not always be pretty, and there will be cycles where the Rays will not be competitive, but they will cycle back around. Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, and Jake McGee are all expected to contribute at the major league level this season. Behind them are Hak-Ju Lee, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, and Josh Sale. The Rays, like Arnold in the Terminator, will be back.
Look for the Rays to return to prominence in 2013, but the future is bright down in Tampa.
5. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles are a very perplexing franchise. They are easily the worst team in a ridiculously difficult division, yet every year they seem to delude themselves into believe that they are a competitive ballclub. They make signings and trades as though they expect to compete every year, and refuse to recognize that they are, in fact, awful. The offseason signings of Vlad Guerrero and Derrek Lee, along with the trade for Mark Reynolds, further prove that this organization does not have anything resembling a long term plan.
On the positive side, the Orioles have some solid arms coming up. Brian Matusz pitched well during the second half of last year. Chris Tillman should contribute this season. Zack Britton and Dan Klein are on the way to the major leagues, and may be called up in September. Manny Machado is an elite prospect at shortstop. However, behind them, there is not a lot to get excited about. Buck Showalter has a lot of experience in getting young teams ready to compete, but he has had a lot more to work with than what he has been given in Baltimore.
The Orioles desperate need to recognize their situation and go full bore into rebuilding mode. Until they do so, this team is destined to take up permanent residence in the American League East basement.
1. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox easily had the best offseason of any team in baseball. Signing Carl Crawford as a free agent and trading for Adrian Gonzalez dramatically improves a lineup that was already formidable in it's own right. The rotation features four starters that could be the number one on any number of teams in Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey. The bench is filled with solid depth players and veterans. This is a team with very few weaknesses, and is the best team on paper.
There are several questions on the Sox, but they are relatively minor. First is the health on their team. Youkilis, Pedroia, and Ellsbury all missed significant time last year. Gonzalez is coming off of shoulder surgery. By all indications, they are all healthy and ready to go. Also, one must ask where Johnathon Papelbon's head is at. For him, he had an off year last year, and the Sox brought in Bobby Jenks in the event that he falters once again.
Nonetheless, this is the team that will win the AL East, and is likely to be the American League representative in the World Series.
2. Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays managed to win 85 games last season despite Aaron Hill and Adam Lind hitting .205 and .237 respectively. While Jose Bautista's power is expected to decrease this season after hitting 54 home runs last year, it is worth noting that he hit 10 in September of 2009 after an adjustment to his batting stance. Even with a dropoff from Bautista, improved production from Lind and Hill should more than make up for the difference.
Despite trading Shaun Marcum to the Brewers, the Blue Jays still have a deep rotation. Brendan Morrow, Ricky Romero, and Brett Cecil all did a solid job last year. Jesse Litsch is being added to the mix, as he spent most of last year recovering from injuries. The fifth spot int he rotation is a battle between prospect Kyle Drabek and Marc Rzepczynski. The bullpen has been improved with the addition of Frank Francisco as their presumed closer.
The Blue Jays are a team with a good direction and a solid future. 2012 is the more likely year to expect them to begin to contend for the postseason, but this team has the potential to accelerate that curve.
3. New York Yankees: Despite their best efforts on the free agent front, the Yankees found themselves in an unusual situation - perusing the bargain bin looking for potential bargains. After missing out on Cliff Lee, they signed a plethora of low risk free agent pitchers in Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia. Russell Martin was signed to take over as the primary catcher from Jorge Posada. Rafeal Soriano was brought in to solidify the bullpen and as insurance in the even that the ageless Mariano Rivera falters. However, the Soriano signing was curious given the contract (3 years for $15 million) and that General Manager Brian Cashman went out of his way to remove himself from that signing.
The core of the Yankees in Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, and Rivera are getting old. Posada and A-Rod have become injury risks, and Posada has essentially become the Yankees full time DH at this stage of his career. The rotation behind C.C. Sabathia is littered with question marks and unproven talent. A.J. Burnett can be napalm at any given moment. Phil Hughes had a solid year in 2010, but is he able to build off of that? The battle for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation is uninspiring at best, with Colon, Garcia, Ivan Nova, and Sergio Mitre battling to make the roster. Not exactly the team that one pictures the Yankees having.
Age and a lack of organizational depth that is ready to perform at the major league level are due to catch up to the Yankees. 2011 should be the first sign of slippage.
4. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays got absolutely hammered in this offseason. They lost their starting first baseman in Carlos Pena, their closer in Rafael Soriano, and their starting left fielder in Carl Crawford through free agency. Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett were traded away for increased financial flexibility. This is a team that is definitely in rebuilding mode, and are planning on contending in another couple of seasons.
However, the Rays possess one of the best managers in baseball in Joe Maddon, a deep minor league system filled with prospects, and a smart front office. They have a plan, and they know how to execute it to perfection. It may not always be pretty, and there will be cycles where the Rays will not be competitive, but they will cycle back around. Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, and Jake McGee are all expected to contribute at the major league level this season. Behind them are Hak-Ju Lee, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, and Josh Sale. The Rays, like Arnold in the Terminator, will be back.
Look for the Rays to return to prominence in 2013, but the future is bright down in Tampa.
5. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles are a very perplexing franchise. They are easily the worst team in a ridiculously difficult division, yet every year they seem to delude themselves into believe that they are a competitive ballclub. They make signings and trades as though they expect to compete every year, and refuse to recognize that they are, in fact, awful. The offseason signings of Vlad Guerrero and Derrek Lee, along with the trade for Mark Reynolds, further prove that this organization does not have anything resembling a long term plan.
On the positive side, the Orioles have some solid arms coming up. Brian Matusz pitched well during the second half of last year. Chris Tillman should contribute this season. Zack Britton and Dan Klein are on the way to the major leagues, and may be called up in September. Manny Machado is an elite prospect at shortstop. However, behind them, there is not a lot to get excited about. Buck Showalter has a lot of experience in getting young teams ready to compete, but he has had a lot more to work with than what he has been given in Baltimore.
The Orioles desperate need to recognize their situation and go full bore into rebuilding mode. Until they do so, this team is destined to take up permanent residence in the American League East basement.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Derek Jeter gets another Gold Glove why?
The American League Gold Glove awards were announced the other day. There were few surprises amongst those who received the awards (Ichiro getting his tenth in ten years, Mark Beuhrle getting his second, Franklin Gutierrez being recognized) and for the most part, there were few flaws with those who received this award. However, that is unless one looks at the winner of the Gold Glove award for shortstop - the essentially immobile Derek Jeter.
Looking at the metric for defensive capability (Rfield - which measures the number of putouts, assists, and double plays made by each fielder, and comparing those totals to positional norms of other fielders to arrive at a figure above or below average. Each extra out made, or hit allowed, is worth X runs which leads to the FR figure) Jeter ranked dead last in the American League, and 27th of 28 shortstops in baseball that played a minimum of 100 games at that position (here is a link to the chart at baseballreference.com: http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9067 ). Now, this is taking nothing away from Jeter; he is a smart baseball player who knows almost exactly where to position himself with each hitter. If he is able to get to the ball, he typically makes the play, as exemplified by his six errors all season. However, he simply does not have any range at this point in time in his career. He has major problems getting to a ball hit in the hole or behind second base unless he is already shaded in that direction. Getting to a ground ball anywhere beyond two steps of his location either way is improbable at best.
The best choice for the AL Gold Glove award based on the chart would have been Jack Wilson. However, he plays in Seattle on a dismal ballclub and is not a 'name' for the fans. Let's face it, how many people out there care about Jack Wilson's baseball career outside of his family? Having the career that Jeter has had, and playing in pinstripes, definitely helped him get this award.
Looking at the metric for defensive capability (Rfield - which measures the number of putouts, assists, and double plays made by each fielder, and comparing those totals to positional norms of other fielders to arrive at a figure above or below average. Each extra out made, or hit allowed, is worth X runs which leads to the FR figure) Jeter ranked dead last in the American League, and 27th of 28 shortstops in baseball that played a minimum of 100 games at that position (here is a link to the chart at baseballreference.com: http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9067 ). Now, this is taking nothing away from Jeter; he is a smart baseball player who knows almost exactly where to position himself with each hitter. If he is able to get to the ball, he typically makes the play, as exemplified by his six errors all season. However, he simply does not have any range at this point in time in his career. He has major problems getting to a ball hit in the hole or behind second base unless he is already shaded in that direction. Getting to a ground ball anywhere beyond two steps of his location either way is improbable at best.
The best choice for the AL Gold Glove award based on the chart would have been Jack Wilson. However, he plays in Seattle on a dismal ballclub and is not a 'name' for the fans. Let's face it, how many people out there care about Jack Wilson's baseball career outside of his family? Having the career that Jeter has had, and playing in pinstripes, definitely helped him get this award.
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