Projecting Jeremy Hellickson

Last year, Jeremy Hellickson won the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year Award, winning 13 games with a 2.95 ERA. At only 25, and pitching for a team that has a knack for developing pitchers as the Rays do, it would appear that his potential is limitless. But how good is Hellickson really going to be?

In 2011, he held opponents to a .210 batting average. This was built mainly upon an insanely low .223 average on balls in play. As the league average is approximately .300, Hellickson got very lucky last year. Yes, the Rays were the best fielding team in baseball least year, and should only get better now that Carlos Pena has returned, but can Hellickson really bank on that type of luck again? When looking back at the last twenty pitchers that held opponents to a batting average on balls in play of between .200 and .250, most of them had severe regression the following year. The ones that avoided this trend were Roger Clemens, Jamie Moyer, and Barry Zito. Zito actually improved his batting average on balls in play against, marking the last time he was relevant in anything other than punchlines for bad contracts.

Then there are Hellickson’s strike out and walk rates. After posting only two walks per nine innings and a strike out rate of 8.2 per nine innings in a brief trial in 2010, he walked 3.43 batters per nine last year. His strike out rate plummeted to 5.6 per nine innings. One thing Hellickson does have going for him in terms of future strike out improvement is a solid difference between his fastball and offspeed pitches – his fastball averaged 90.9 MPH last season, his curve and change were at 75.5 and 79.9 MPH respectively. However, that is an average fastball that he throws, meaning that he will need to rely more on control than the ability to throw the baseball past the opposition. Unless he cuts down on his walk rate, he will be in even more trouble next year.
According to the always entertaining comparison chart on baseballreference.com, the following ten pitchers compare to Hellickson’s age 24 season: Doc Medich, Rich Gale, Pedro Astacio, Joey Hamilton, George Meakim, Bob Buhl, Mike Dunne, Steve Gromek, Rip Collins, and Bobby Jones. Of those ten pitchers, only three of them (Buhl, Gromek, and Jones) had an All-Star Game appearance. Even then, it was one selection each. Most of those pitchers did not even win 100 games in their career, as they were unable to sustain the luck they had in their rookie seasons going forward.

Hellickson, however, has several factors in his favor. First, Tropicana Field is one of the better pitcher’s parks in baseball. For every 100 runs scored at a neutral park, the Trop has averaged 90 over the past four years. With the large foul territory and open bullpens, it’s a pitcher’s dream. Second, as mentioned previously, he has a great defense behind him. The Rays were the best in baseball in almost every defensive metric last season, and will only get better now that Pena is back. And third, while it is a small sample size, Hellickson does not give up a lot of hard hit balls. Those weak pop ups and ground balls will help keep his ERA down, and make him look a lot better than he is.

As it stands, Hellickson appears destined for a 12 to 15 win, 4.00 ERA season. While it is a solid year, especially for a pitcher that is going to be the fourth or fifth starter, it is not ace material. Hellickson should have a decent career as a middle of the rotation starter, but do not expect much more than that.

Toronto Blue Jays 2012 Season Preview

Over the past twenty years, the Toronto Blue Jays have been fairly easy to predict. They have won between 80 and 89 games eleven times in that span, never winning 90 or more. They have won fewer than 70 games just once in that time frame, not counting the strike year. And they have finished fourth in the American League East each of the last four seasons. They have also been a team expected to finally break through over the last couple of season. Is 2012 finally when they break through?

The starting pitchers are a solid, if relatively anonymous, group. Ricky Romero took the next step in his development last season, dropping his ERA below 3.00 (2.92), cutting down his walk rate, and holding steady with strikeouts. He did lucky with his batting average against, but it had been low the previous year as well. Hitters just do not make solid contact against him. Brandon Morrow was inconsistent last season, but he did show some flashes. Also, he improved on his rates, cutting down his walks per nine innings, and actually leading the AL in strikeouts per nine. It is not inconceivable for him to take the next step as well this season. Henderson Alvarez appears to be a very good pitcher in the making. In his brief appearance last season, he had a K/BB ratio of 5:1. He also allowed just over a hit per inning (64 hits in 63.2 innings pitched). Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, and Kyle Drabek will vie for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Cecil is a solid back of the rotation starter. Drabek was a former top prospect, who still has plenty of time to have everything come together. McGowan had not been in the major leagues since 2008 before his brief cameo last season, and will attempt to be the Blue Jays version of Ryan Vogelsong.

The bullpen had several departures, but filled in those holes nicely. Sergio Santos is a low priced closer, who is under control for three more seasons. Darren Oliver and Francisco Cordero were signed as veteran help for an already solid group. Jason Frasor returned from the White Sox, and provides even more depth. The bullpen is a solid, deep group that will be an asset for the Blue Jays.

The outfield is a very solid group, with Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and Colby Rasmus. Bautista proved that 2010 was not a fluke, and is one of the best hitters in the game. He improved his walk rate, cut down on strikeouts, and led the American League in home runs for a second consecutive year. Rasmus, a former top prospect of the Cardinals who clashed with Tony LaRussa, should benefit from a new beginning, and may be able to finally tap into his potential. Snider was hurt for much of last season, but is a solid power hitter. Rajai Davis was brought over as the fourth outfielder, and can play all three outfield positions.

Around the infield, the Blue Jays have a lot of potential. Brett Lawrie will be the everyday third baseman, after exploding onto the scene in his major league debut. He has plenty of talent; the biggest question is whether or not he can keep himself together, as he developed a reputation as a head case in the minors. If he can, Lawrie has the chance to be a top notch third baseman for years to come. Yunel Escobar is a solid player at shortstop, providing decent power, a good batting eye, and solid defense. Kelly Johnson was acquired for Aaron Hill last season, and returns as the starting second baseman. He provides solid power, and good defense. While his batting average was terrible overall, he did hit .270 in 132 plate appearances after coming over to Toronto. He should return to form with a full season as a Blue Jay. Despite back to back mediocre seasons, Adam Lind remains at first base. He does have good power, on the rare occasions when he makes contact. His strikeout percentage did improve from 2010, but his overall statline is a far cry from 2009. This may be his final chance to prove that he can be an everyday player.

J.P. Arencibia provides great power from the catcher position, but not much else. He struck out in just over one out of every three at bats, and is mediocre at best defensively. Jeff Mathis was signed to be the late inning defensive replacement. In the minors, Travis d’Arnaud is waiting to take over should Arencibia not show any improvement. At DH, the Blue Jays have Edwin Encarnacion, who can also play third and first base if needed. While he is a butcher with the glove, he is another solid bat that the Jays can plug into their lineup.

All in all, it appears to be the same situation with the Blue Jays this year as it has been in years past. They would probably win most of the other divisions in baseball, but are stuck in the brutal AL East. Once the second wild card team is added, then they will have a better chance at the playoffs, but for now, they will remain on the outside looking in.

Tampa Bay Rays 2012 Season Preview

At the beginning of 2011, the Tampa Bay Rays were written off as a team that had simply lost too many pieces to contend. Fast forward to the end of the year, and with the help of the Red Sox collapse, the Rays found themselves in the playoffs yet again.

The foundation for the Rays success begins with their formidable rotation. While they are all relatively young, Joe Maddon has proven to have delivered great results with youth. James Shields, at age 30, is the elder statesman amongst the starting rotation. While he had a career season last year, regression is to be expected, as his WHiP was far below his average mark. After a disastrous 2010, he managed to trim over two full runs from his ERA. He’s not as good as he looked in 2011, but not as bad as he was in 2010. The truth is someplace in between. Jeremy Hellickson is also a prime target for regression. Despite a fairly high walk rate and a low strikeout rate, he was helped immensely by a .223 batting average on balls in play against him. Some of the regression amongst Shields and Hellickson will be mitigated by the expected improvement from David Price and a season of Matt Moore in the rotation. Price continues to show improvement in cutting down his walk rate and has increased his strikeout rate. Moore is a phenom who tore through the minor leagues last year, and pitched well in the playoffs, as he was the surprise starter of Game One of the ALDS against Texas. Wade Davis had a solid sophomore season, and is likely to be the fifth starter, pushing Jeff Neimann either to long relief, or to the trade block.

The Rays gambled on making Kyle Farnsworth their closer last season, and it paid off. Farnsworth, who could typically be counted on to naplam any close game, put up a career season as he almost doubled his career total in saves. He returns as the closer again in 2012, but should he falter, the Rays have a plethora of options available. Jake McGee was drafted to be the Rays closer of the future, and would slide right in if needed. J.P. Howell had a disappointing 2011, but is likely to bounce back. Joel Peralta is an underrated set up man who got to an 0-2 count on 34% of batters faced last season. In that situation, he gave up only three hits all year. Fernando Rodney was also signed to a one year deal with a team option. If he can regain the form that he had previously, he may be another solid option for the seventh and eighth innings.

In the outfield are left fielder Desmond Jennings, center fielder B.J. Upton, and right fielder Matt Joyce. Upton has all the tools necessary to become great, but has a tendency to chase terrible pitches out of the strike zone and laying off fastballs down the middle of the plate. While he is a 20 home run/20 stolen base player, he may never be the elite offensive threat everyone expected. The same diagnosis can be placed on Desmond Jennings. While he was a rookie last year, he was expected to be Carl Crawford. He did end up being similar to Crawford, only it was the Carl Crawford from Boston last season. If he does not show significant improvement this season, it would not be out of the question for the Rays to try to find another option and trade Jennings. Matt Joyce can take a walk, steal the occasional base, and has a bit of power, but is more of a fourth outfielder. At this point, he probably is what he is.

At third base is Evan Longoria, who, even in a down year, had over thirty home runs. His batting average was dragged down by injuries and a .239 batting average on balls in play. Expect him to regain his form as an elite player, and the cornerstone of the lineup. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac will likely platoon at shortstop, although neither has proven to be an asset with the bat. Rodriguez may eventually take the job full time, as he has displayed a bit of power, and Brignac has an awful .272 on base percentage in his career. Either way, both players are merely holding down the position until Hak Ju Lee is brought up. Second base is held down by the very underrated Ben Zobrist. Zobrist not only provides one of the better bats in the lineup, but he also has the capability to play wherever he is needed. Carlos Pena was brought back, and while he may not hit for a high average, he does provide another power bat in the lineup, and plays Gold Glove caliber defense.

Catcher underwent a significant change, as both John Jaso and Kelly Stoppach were allowed to depart. In their place, the Rays brought in Jose Molina. While he is essentially useless with the bat, he is one of the best defensive catchers in the game. In fact, he was brought in for his ability to frame pitches – according to PitchFX, he saved 62.8 runs from framing pitches since 2008, despite playing a total of 264 games. Anything he contributes with the bat will be a bonus. At DH, the Rays brought in Orioles cast off Luke Scott, who had a terrible year in 2011, but had three consecutive years with 20+ home runs prior to that. Scott is another low-risk, high reward type player that the Rays seem to have luck with. Expect a bounce back year.

On paper, the Rays do not appear to have enough to contend with the Red Sox, Yankees, or even the Blue Jays this season. However, the same was said at the start of 2011. Joe Maddon is able to get the most out of the pieces he is given, and the pitching staff is more than enough to keep them competitive. Expect the Rays to contend for the wild card again this year.

New York Yankees 2012 Season Preview

Amazing how quickly the perception of a team can change. The Yankees were potentially in major trouble this offseason, as C.C. Sabathia had an out clause in his contract, and the rest of the starting rotation appeared to be in serious trouble. The lineup was old, and it appeared that the Yankees’ run may, in fact, have run it’s course.

Fast forward to January 23rd. The Yankees locked up Sabathia, providing them with a legitimate anchor for the rotation. Sabathia is, despite concerns about his weight, extremely durable and consistent. The Yankees then traded for rising star Michael Pineda, giving them a much needed young potential stud for the rotation. Three days later, they signed dependable veteran Hiroki Kuroda to a one year contract. Suddenly, the rotation, which looked like a severe weakness, had become a strength. 16 game winner Ivan Nova holds down the fourth starter slot, and despite the expected regression he will have this season, is a solid piece. The fifth starter will be either Phil Hughes, who imploded last year, or Freddy Garcia, who put up a surprisingly solid year. A.J. Burnett was traded to the Pirates, which will improve the Yankees’ rotation simply by his absence. The rotation, once a weakness, is suddenly a strength.

The bullpen is solid, with future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera returning to lock down the ninth inning. Even at age 42, he shows no signs of wearing down, and looks as dominant as ever. David Robertson may have been the top set up man in baseball last year. Despite his wildness (35 walks in 66.1 innings), he was virtually unhittable, holding the opposition to a .170 batting average against while striking out over one-third of the hitters he faced. Boone Logan, Rafael Soriano, and the recently signed David Aardsma provide excellent bullpen depth, and give the Yankees plenty of options should Robertson stumble or if Rivera gets hurt.

The outfield returns intact, with Nick Swisher in right field, Curtis Granderson in center, and Brett Gardner in left. Gardner is a solid player, capable of providing a bit of power, excellent speed, and a decent glove. Granderson had a career year last season, as he finally figured out how to hit left handed pitching. His 41 home runs were far and away his highest total, and he actually drew a solid amount of walks, showing an improved batting eye. While regression is expected, he may finally be past the possibility of being a platoon candidate. Swisher is a solid left fielder, able to get on base at a good rate, hit the occasional home run, and play decent defense. Even if the outfield is not spectacular, it is a solid group.

The infield for the Yankees is a solid group, although there are concerns at shortstop and third base. Derek Jeter returns at shortstop, but one has to wonder how long he will remain an effective major league player. 2010 looked like the beginning of the end, but Jeter returned with a solid 2011, particularly in the second half when he posted a .327 batting average and .811 OPS. Alex Rodriguez has been plagued by injuries over the past couple of years, and looks like he is nearing the end of the line. If he can stay healthy, Rodriguez can still produce at a level just below elite. The question is, how many games can he play? Otherwise, Eduardo Nunez may see a lot more playing time than a team with this payroll should allow. At second base is the dependable Robinson Cano, who is one of the top two or three second basemen in the game. While known primarily for his offense, Cano has won a Gold Glove, and is one of the best at making plays at his position. First baseman Mark Teixeira has seen his batting average on balls in play dip over each of the past five seasons, but remains a solid power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Teixeira is also a very underrated defensive player, having won four Gold Glove awards.

Russell Martin had a career rennaisance last season, and was rewarded with a $7.5 million dollar deal. While his batting average suffered a bit, he regained a power stroke, and showed flashes of his former ability. Francisco Cervelli is a capable backup, and may be one of the better backup catchers in the game. At DH, the Yankees finally put Jorge Posada out of his misery. Look for a platoon with Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones to take over the position, as they finally get some production from the position over a full year.

The Yankees are poised to make a deep run this season. After having problems in the playoffs due to their pitching staff, they may return to the World Series again this season. At this point, they are the favorites to represent the American League in the Fall Classic.

Boston Red Sox 2012 Season Preview

Following a collapse that left many diehard Red Sox fans recalling the days prior to 2004, the Sox made wholesale changes – to the front office and coaching staff. Gone are the ‘Boy Wonder’ Theo Epstein, having been traded to the Chicago Cubs to take over as the team’s President of Baseball Operations. The Sox also got rid their most successful manager in the history of the franchise in Terry Francona. In their place, the Sox hired The Official Puppet of Larry Lucchino in Ben Cherington as GM; and Bobby Valentine as manager, a man who is better known for his ability to generate goodwill, provide a quality soundbite, and wear Groucho Marx glasses than for his baseball acumen.

These replacements would be somewhat palatable if the Red Sox did anything this offseason to upgrade their roster. Anything at all. However, they did the polar opposite, letting Jonathon Papelbon walk in free agency, trading their starting shortstop for minor league filler, and not addressing any of the holes on their roster. What, exactly, was the plan?

The starting rotation returns Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett. Buchholz was injured most of last year, so there is no guarantee that he will return to form in 2012. Lester and Beckett both produced statistics that looked good at the end of the year, but were also primarily responcible for the Sox epic collapse of 2012. Behind them, a group of has-beens in Vincente Padilla, Carlos Silva, John Maine and Aaron Cook, never-weres in Felix Doubrant and Tom Gorzelanny, and converted relievers in Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves. As maligned as John Lackey and Diasuke Matsuzaka have been, they are actually much better than the corpses that the Sox are looking to trot out two out of every five starts.

The bullpen could be decent, however. Even though they lost Papelbon, they traded for Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon, both of whom have closing experience. If Bailey can remain healthy all season, they have an All-Star closer at an extremely affordable price. However, the key with him is his ability to stay healthy. If Bard goes back to the bullpen, the combo of he and Melancon will make the seventh and eight innings fairly worry free. However, the rest of the bullpen is in disarray. Bobby Jenks dealt with a potentially life threating situation with his spine this offseason, and there are doubts as to whether or not he will pitch again. Matt Albers looked solid at the start of last season, but wore down as hitters remembered that he was, in fact, the pitcher that bombed in Baltimore in recent history. The rest of the bullpen will consist of whatever arms do not stick in the rotation, none of which appear to be viable major league options.

In the outfield, center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury came back from an injury plagued 2010 with a vengeance, finally capitalizing on his potential. However, questions remain as to whether or not he can remain healthy, and if he can put up similar numbers consistently. Left field is manned by Carl Crawford, who was such a disappointment last year that team owner John Henry went out of his way to state that he was against the signing from the start. In right field, the often injured J.D. Drew has departed, as has the heir apparent in Josh Reddick. By all appearances, the Sox are hoping to cobble the position together with Cody Ross, Mark Sweeney, and possibly Ryan Kalish. None of these options really inspire any confidence.

Shortstop and third base have the potential to be disasters for the Sox. Shortstop Marco Scutaro was dumped, apparently for financial reasons. In his place, the Sox have the triumvirate of Mike Aviles, Jose Iglasies, and their big free agent signing – Nick Punto. If Aviles remains true to form and produces in even numbered years, then they will be decent there. Otherwise, this could be a black hole in the lineup. At third base is Kevin Youkilis, a solid player when healthy. However, Youkilis has been injured over the past two seasons, and missed a significant amount of time last year. One has to wonder if his body can hold up to playing third base at this stage of his career. If not, uber-prospect Will Middlebrooks had better live up to his billing, or else the Sox offense will be in serious trouble.

On the plus side, first and second base are solid. Adrian Gonzalez produced a monster season, ranking in the top ten in the American League in most meaningful offensive categories while providing Gold Glove caliber defense. He will anchor the lineup for years to come. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia provides a bit of everything for Boston, bringing surprising power, underrated speed, and leadership qualities that the Sox are in desperate need of. At DH, David Ortiz appears to have hit a second wind in his career, and is back for another season.

If everything turns out perfect for the Red Sox, they can contend for a World Series berth. However, it is even more likely that the Sox could be on the outside looking in. Enjoy the memories of the Terry Francona Era, because the days of being a perennial contender appear to be just about done.

A Lose-Lose Situation

Every so often, there is a transaction or situation where both parties can claim victory. More often than not, one side will win, and the other side will lose. And still, there are those transactions and situations where both sides lose out. The latter situation is what the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox presently have.

First, the Cubs angle. They can point to the fact that Theo Epstein won two World Series rings with the Red Sox during his tenure. Yes, he did get those rings, but the fact of the matter is that he did not truly put those teams together. The core of the 2004 Red Sox team was put together by Dan Duquette, a man most commonly remembered for saying that Roger Clemens was done after allowing him to leave as a free agent following the 1996 season. Yes, Theo made the trade to get rid of Nomar, bringing in Doug Mientkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera, but who is to say that Duquette would not have made a similar move? Yes, trading Nomar when they did took balls, but Duquette was not afraid to make a huge splash either.

Then there is the 2007 championship. There were still a number of holdovers from that 2004 team, with the biggest additions being Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Both of those happened to come over during ap oint in time when Theo was not with the Sox, having infamously left in a power struggle with Larry Lucchino (more on him later).

So what has Theo actually done? He gets a lot of credit for rebuilding the Red Sox farm system, but a lot of the players that came up during his tenure and stayed with the Sox were, once again, Duquette draft picks. He did manage to sign such notable free agents as Julio Lugo, John Lackey, J.D. Drew, Matt Clement, Edgar Rentaria, Mike Cameron, Bobby Jenks, Carl Crawford, and Daisuke Matsuzaka however. Oh, wait. Those guys sucked. Where did he get that genius label from again?

Now he’s off to the Cubs, calling them the ‘ultimate challenge’. He’s brought over his guy, Jed Hoyer, to be the GM. The Cubs will now be run according to his ‘organizational philosophy’, which involves valuing draft picks over free agents. Over the past nine years, the Sox have had 32 first round and sandwich draft picks (mmmm…..sandwich….). The Cubs, meanwhile, have been dead last with 16. This will change, for better or for worse. At least he can’t be as bad as that previous waste of space they had a GM, Jim Hendry.

Now to the Red Sox.

Part of why Theo left the Sox was that he no longer would have to deal with Larry Lucchino, a man that is roughly as pleasant to deal with as a CarrotTop stand-up routine. Lucchino and Epstein had been in a power struggle pretty much since the beginning, leading the Sox to essentially have two voices trying to shout each other down. Larry would manipulate the public relations side of the team to whatever he felt his agenda was, while Theo would just ignore his verdicts sent down from on high. Yeah, that’s a great situation to be around.
Now that Theo is gone, Larry wins his personal war. But are the Red Sox better for it? For all his faults, Epstein did have a long term organizational view at heart. He truly did what he felt was right to put together a winning franchise on the field. Lucchino, being one of the owners of the team, even if he is a minority owner, is more concerned with filling Fenway with customers and getting ratings on NESN than he is with the won-loss record. If people tune in, why would he care if the Sox win or not?

Lucchino is also, by all accounts, a filthy rat. He is not a man to be trusted whatsoever, unless you want to find a knife protruding from your back. Given the history of the Red Sox in recent years of ripping people as they leave the organization, you can see why most people would trust Lucchino as far as they can throw him.
Now that slimy weasel has control of the Red Sox. Yes, Ben Cherington has been named as the Red Sox new GM, but it’s really going to be Lucchino pulling the strings from behind the scenes. This promises to be a train wreck. Since the Red Sox clubhouse is already in shambles, the team chemistry is atrocious, and the fan base is almost in meltdown mode, how can things get worse?

Well, for starters, they can do what they did and give Lucchino the keys. A person with zero experience making actual roster decisions now having what is essentially the final say over everything in a major market with seemingly unlimited  money to spend? Sounds a lot like what the Yankees were over the mid 1980′s to mid 1990′s. Welcome to bloated payrolls, short sighted signings, and a losing record for years to come. The GM and manager’s positions promise to be a revolving door, but who cares as long as people pack the ballpark and sing to Sweet Caroline?

Both teams lose in this situation. And both teams will continue to lose on the field for a long time.

The End For Posada

Since the second week of the 2011 season, it has been evident that Jorge Posada had nothing left. His bat was slower, he was no longer able to play in the field, and he was unable to provide anything beyond the mythical ‘veteran leadership’. Even the leadership was redundant on a team built around established veterans.

Yes, Posada started off the year hitting for power, but that was all he was doing. Finally, roughly five months too late, Joe Girardi realized that he could get the same production from a cardboard standup of Posada, and has benched him. Posada has now become just another veteran who hung on too long through his inability to recognize the inevitable – that he no longer has the skill necessary to play major league baseball.

At first glance, Posada seems to be having a passable season. His batting average stands at .230, which is not good, but is also not Adam Dunn. However, he hit .382 in June, has not hit a home run in his last 78 at bats, and cannot play in the field any longer. Presently, he has an OPS+ of 83, his lowest in a season with more than 200 plate appearances. His strikeout to walk rate is almost two to one, far worse than his career average. He is -8 at offensive runs above replacement, and -1.2 in WAR. In short, at the $13.1Million he is making this season, Posada is playing worse than your typical 25th man on the roster.

It rarely ends well for professional athletes when their career is winding down. Bouyed by their past successes, they feel that it is only a slump that they can work their way out of. More often than not, the only time they understand that the reality is that they no longer have the skills to play is when they are shown the door and they are forced into retirement, as the next prospect or free agent veteran is brought in to take their place.

And so, the writing is on the wall for Jorge Posada. Perhaps he can hang around for another year or two at a much lower salary on a team desperate for some of that ‘veteran leadership’. Maybe he will end up catching or being the designated hitter a couple of times a week and providing occasional power off of the bench. But his days of regular playing time are over. The best case scenario for Posada would be for the Yankees to have ‘Jorge Appreciation Day’ and he announces that he is going to retire after the season. This way, he can claim that he went out on his terms, which many athletes are unable to say.

Jose Bautista's Improbable Journey

The rise of Jose Bautista from continual afterthought to power hitting monster is quite the interesting one. Bautista was drafted in the 20th round of the 2000 amateur draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He toiled in the minors for three years, never rising higher than A ball. His best season came in 2002, when he hit .301 with 14 home runs and 57 RBI. Throughout his minor league career, he struck out more than he walked, had mediocre power numbers, really didn't have a set position.

In 2004, Bautista racked up more miles than an airline pilot. He was selected by the Baltimore Orioles in the Rule V Draft, at which point in time he was considered their 12th best prospect. At the time, Baseball America said in their Prospect Handbook that “Bautista has a quick bat and can catch up to the best fastballs. His power potential is his best tool.”  Still, he was not an elite talent.

Since Bautista was a Rule V draftee, Baltimore had to keep him on the Major League roster, or waive him. After 16 games and 12 plate appearances, on June 3rd, they placed him on waivers. The Tampa Bay Rays picked him up, where he logged 12 games and 15 plate appearances. Failing to impress the Tampa front office, he was sold to the Kansas City Royals on June 28th. With the Royals, he logged 13 games and 26 plate appearances. In those plate appearances, he struck out 12 times. Thoroughly unimpressed, the Royals traded Bautista to the New York Mets for Justin Huber on July 30th. Bautista never actually suited up for the Mets, as he was traded with Ty Wigginton and minor leaguer Matt Peterson back to Pittsburgh, in exchange for Kris Benson (and his wife) and Jeff Keppinger later the same day. Bautista would spend the rest of the year in Pittsburgh, where he would get another 43 plate appearances, and striking out 18 times. With all of these transactions, Bautista became the first, and only, player to be on five different teams in one season.

In 2005, Bautista spent most of 2005 in the minors, playing primarily in AA, where he hit .283 with 23 home runs. In 2006 and 2007, Bautista stuck with the Pirates, playing as a super utility player in 2006, and the primary third baseman in 2007. Then came 2008. He started off as Pittsburgh's primary third baseman, but the organization lost faith in him after he struggled to hit .242 with only 12 home runs. Frustrated, the Pirates acquired Andy LaRoche, then sent Bautista down to AAA. Finally, on August 21st, he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays, who sent Robinzon Diaz over to complete the trade on the 25th.

2009 appeared to be just like every other season for Bautista. He played in left, right, and at third for the Blue Jays, showing very little of the power potential that made him a mid-level prospect. He appeared that he was simply a utility player, someone that would never quite reach his projections. Then, in September 2009, Toronto's hitting coach Dwayne Murphy made some adjustments to Bautista's swing. Suddenly, everything clicked, and Bautista would hit 10 home runs in the month of September.

Despite the power surge over the last month of the season, Bautista hit a total of 13 home runs in 2009. Because of this, he was overlooked going in to the 2010 season. From the start, he showed that his production in September was not a fluke, as he started to hit. By May 24, 2010, he had hit 14 home runs. He was selected to the American League All-Star team, and led the AL in home runs with 54, shattering his previous best of 16, set in 2006. He would finish fourth in the MVP vote, and earn his first Silver Slugger award.

This year, Joey Bats as he is now known, is back at it again. Through 37 games, he is leading the AL in home runs again, with 18. In his last 162 games, Bautista has hit 63 home runs. Next on the list is Albert Pujols, who has hit 41.

So, why do people refuse to acknowledge what Bautista is accomplishing? Is it the immediate suspicion that, even though one can plainly see the difference in his swing, that this surge cannot be natural? Is it because he plays in Toronto? Regardless of the reasoning, Bautista's transformation has been nothing short of remarkable. He has gone from being an unknown utility player to a feared slugger in roughly one year. Time to pay attention.

The New Eddie Whitson

Today, the Boston Red Sox placed John Lackey on the 15 day DL with what is being called a 'strained elbow'. The timing of this 'strained elbow' is rather peculiar, considering he did not appear to be in any discomfort at any point during this most recent disaster start. This time, in his 6 2/3 innings pitched, he gave up 9 earned runs on 9 hits with 5 walks, which has been roughly par for the Lack-ey course this season.

After the round of batting practice game, Lack-ey cranked his excuse machine into gear once again, this time complaining that his life was terrible in any way imaginable. While looking like Mr. Ed is never a boost to the psyche, if a terrible existence involves getting paid over $80million to essentially be a slow pitch softball pitcher, then sign me up.

On the whole, this signing is reminiscent of another ill-fated singing involving a pitcher going to the AL East. For this, let us steal Professor Peabody's Way Back Machine, and return to the year 1984. Fresh off going 14-8 with a 3.24 ERA for the San Diego Padres, Eddie Whitson signed a 5-year contract with the New York Yankees worth $4.4million, with an option for a sixth year. Needless to say, this marriage worked about as well as William Shatner attempting to sing (seriously, watch his Rocket Man cover). From the start, Whitson did not fit with the Yankees or in New York. He clashed with then-manager Billy Martin, getting into a fight with him in a bar and infamously kicking him in the crotch. He would get panic attacks before pitching in Yankee Stadium, and resorted to warming up while wearing a jacket, so that no one would recognize him before he took the mound. Finally, on July 9th of 1986, Whitson was put out of his misery, and traded back to San Diego for Tim Stoddard.

Back to the present. Lack-ey has the same 'deer in the headlights' look that Whitson had during his time in New York. At this point, he may as well be going out there wearing Depends undergarments, because he is soiling himself every time he takes the mound. If he actually was the horse that he looks like, Lack-ey would be glue. It's time to put him out of his misery.

Lack-ey needs to be traded from Boston. He cannot handle this market, the pressure of pitching on a team expected to contend every year, and having any expectations placed upon him. Lack-ey has been a disaster in every way possible since he signed here. If the Red Sox could get back anything that even resembled being useful for him (and this includes used sweat socks) they should take it immediately.

The Dice-K-Lackey Conundrum

After the rainout on April 13th, and the following off day, the Boston Red Sox have changed their starting rotation around yet again. Starting on Friday, the Sox will be sending out Clay Buchholz on Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays. Following Buchholz will be Josh Beckett on Saturday, then Jon Lester on Sunday. Monday, during the matinee game, will be Daisuke Matsuzaka - getting the start a full week since his previous outing. Following him on Tuesday in Oakland will be John Lackey, who is being skipped in the rotation.

The explanation being given is that Lackey has a lot of success against Oakland, and they want to make certain that he pitches there. While his numbers are, in fact, very good against the A's in Oakland (8-4 with a sub 3.00 ERA in 16 starts), if he was to have started on Friday, he would have faced them on Wednesday. Is it possible that the Sox are already trying to protect lackey from the chorus of boos that he will receive the moment he starts to implode again? That is the more logical reason.

Then there is Dice-K, who, in his last start, was more of a train wreck than Charlie Sheen. In two plus innings, he gave up seven earned runs on eight hits and two walks. Tim Wakefield, who is the other option as the number five starter, was slightly better, giving up five runs (four earned) in three and a third innings, while giving up six hits and walking one. If (when) Dice-K has another bad start on Monday, will Wakefield take his spot in the rotation? And how long will Wakefield be able to keep that spot?

The front of the rotation is now closer to what it should have been coming out of Spring Training. Lackey is better suited as the number four in the Sox staff. However, the fifth starter is going to be a position of flux throughout the year. In fact, the best option for that spot may actually be Felix Doubront, who would provide the rotation with a second lefty and is a favorite of manager Terry Francona. Based on how Dice-K and Wakefield have pitched thus far, expect Doubront to get his chance soon.

Long term, the Sox are free of Dice-K after next season, although it feels as though the organization wants to be rid of him as of yesterday. Should the Sox be languishing out of the playoff hunt come the trading deadline, one has to wonder if they will package him with a prospect just to be rid of him. Lackey, meanwhile, is signed through 2014 with a vesting option for 2015, so he will not be leaving any time soon. Should he continue to struggle, the question would then be what to do with him. Sox fans have seemingly turned on him already, and his penchant for finding excuses and refusing to take blame for his awful performances have accelerated the fan's disgust. Right now, he cannot be trusted at home, and that is not a good thing for a player receiving $15.25 million per year.

Right now, the best option would be to move Dice-K to the bullpen as a long reliever, insert Doubront, and let Lackey try to figure himself out. Re-aligning the rotation as they have is a good start, at the very least.

Red Sox and Rays - Out Of Playoff Contention?

It is still very early in the baseball season, with the first week just being concluded. However, there are still two teams that have yet to taste victory. One is the Tampa Bay Rays, which may not be much of a surprise given the talent they lost this offseason. The second is the Boston Red Sox, which is shocking considering how most experts predicted them to win the World Series.

For the Red Sox or the Rays to win the World Series after this start would truly be historic. The worst start for a team to still make the playoffs is 0-5, by the 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates and the 1995 Cincinnati Reds. Both the Red Sox and Rays find themselves at 0-6 presently.

Now does this mean that both teams are already out of playoff attention? Not at all. If either of these teams lost six games in a row in the middle of the season, analysts would be paying much less attention. However, this is at the start of the year, where the accumulating losses are more obvious, especially when both teams have been swept by teams that were expected to be terrible (the Rays by Baltimore, the Sox by Cleveland).

The Rays have become just the second team to go from having the best record in the American League to 0-5, joining the 1905 Red Sox. They have been horrendous on offense, becoming the fourth team since 1919 to score one or fewer runs in five of their first six games. The Rays rank dead last in baseball in runs (7), batting average (.136), on base percentage (.218), and slugging (.260). The Sox, meanwhile, are 29th in batting average (.190) and 26th in runs (16). The biggest issue for Boston, even more than their offense, has been their pitching. They rank dead last in ERA (8.33), 29th in WHiP (1.68), had not had a quality start until today.

So, are both teams out of it already? In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'til it's over." But the odds are certainly stacked against both clubs after the first week.

Is Josh Beckett Done?

Last night, in his first start of the season, Josh Beckett gave up five hits and four walks over five innings against the Cleveland Indians. beckett also struck out four Indians hitters. However, over his five innings of work, he threw 106 pitches, for an average of 21.2 per inning.

The first time through the lineup, he managed to get eight of the first nine batters out, relying more on a changeup than he ever had before. After the first time facing him, the Indians adjusted, and Beckett was only able to get eight of the next fifteen batters out. The Indians stayed patient, and waited for Beckett to make mistakes.

Normally, such a difference in approach could be explained by a pitcher trying to keep batters off balance. Yet, there are several underlying issues here. First, Beckett has never really thrown a changeup much at all previously, yet alone at a rate of roughly 25% of his pitches. Second, Beckett's fastball was averaging approximately 91 MPH, down 5 MPH from where it had been previously. Third, he was awful last season and during spring training. And fourth, he is coming back from a back injury.

Watching him last night, he appeared to be someone rehabbing a shoulder or an arm injury. Considering that no one was truly positive if Beckett really had a back injury last year, it is possible that the arm was really the issue. If that is the case, Beckett's mysterious loss of velocity would be easier to explain. In fact, his start last night looked extremely similar to when Pedro martinez came back from his arm injury. Pedro got shelled in his first start, yet managed to finish the year with a 20-4  record with a 2.26 ERA. Incidentally, both had this happen during the season they both turned 30.

The difference is that Pedro had the mental capacity to know how to be effective without throwing fastballs past everyone else. He was still as confident as ever, daring the opposition to beat him. Beckett, however, looked timid, and was trying to hit corners. This is not what he has done to be successful before, and he needs to go back to daring the opposition to beat him. He needs to channel his inner Pedro.

If Beckett is not able to adapt, then he may very well be finished as a decent starter in baseball. Perhaps he could still be effective in a relief role, but who pays $17million per year to a set up pitcher? Not even the Yankees do that. Beckett needs to adjust how he pitches, or hope that the loss in velocity was an aberrition. Otherwise, his career may be just about over.

2011 Preview - American League East

This is the first part of what is going to be a six part 2011 baseball preview. For Part One, the American League East is reviewed. The teams are listed in the order that I anticipate them finishing in.

1. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox easily had the best offseason of any team in baseball. Signing Carl Crawford as a free agent and trading for Adrian Gonzalez dramatically improves a lineup that was already formidable in it's own right. The rotation features four starters that could be the number one on any number of teams in Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey. The bench is filled with solid depth players and veterans. This is a team with very few weaknesses, and is the best team on paper.

There are several questions on the Sox, but they are relatively minor. First is the health on their team. Youkilis, Pedroia, and Ellsbury all missed significant time last year. Gonzalez is coming off of shoulder surgery. By all indications, they are all healthy and ready to go. Also, one must ask where Johnathon Papelbon's head is at. For him, he had an off year last year, and the Sox brought in Bobby Jenks in the event that he falters once again.

Nonetheless, this is the team that will win the AL East, and is likely to be the American League representative in the World Series.

2. Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays managed to win 85 games last season despite Aaron Hill and Adam Lind hitting .205 and .237 respectively. While Jose Bautista's power is expected to decrease this season after hitting 54 home runs last year, it is worth noting that he hit 10 in September of 2009 after an adjustment to his batting stance. Even with a dropoff from Bautista, improved production from Lind and Hill should more than make up for the difference.

Despite trading Shaun Marcum to the Brewers, the Blue Jays still have a deep rotation. Brendan Morrow, Ricky Romero, and Brett Cecil all did a solid job last year. Jesse Litsch is being added to the mix, as he spent most of last year recovering from injuries. The fifth spot int he rotation is a battle between prospect Kyle Drabek and Marc Rzepczynski. The bullpen has been improved with the addition of Frank Francisco as their presumed closer.

The Blue Jays are a team with a good direction and a solid future. 2012 is the more likely year to expect them to begin to contend for the postseason, but this team has the potential to accelerate that curve.

3. New York Yankees: Despite their best efforts on the free agent front, the Yankees found themselves in an unusual situation - perusing the bargain bin looking for potential bargains. After missing out on Cliff Lee, they signed a plethora of low risk free agent pitchers in Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia. Russell Martin was signed to take over as the primary catcher from Jorge Posada. Rafeal Soriano was brought in to solidify the bullpen and as insurance in the even that the ageless Mariano Rivera falters. However, the Soriano signing was curious given the contract (3 years for $15 million) and that General Manager Brian Cashman went out of his way to remove himself from that signing.

The core of the Yankees in Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, and Rivera are getting old. Posada and A-Rod have become injury risks, and Posada has essentially become the Yankees full time DH at this stage of his career. The rotation behind C.C. Sabathia is littered with question marks and unproven talent. A.J. Burnett can be napalm at any given moment. Phil Hughes had a solid year in 2010, but is he able to build off of that? The battle for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation is uninspiring at best, with Colon, Garcia, Ivan Nova, and Sergio Mitre battling to make the roster. Not exactly the team that one pictures the Yankees having.

Age and a lack of organizational depth that is ready to perform at the major league level are due to catch up to the Yankees. 2011 should be the first sign of slippage.

4. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays got absolutely hammered in this offseason. They lost their starting first baseman in Carlos Pena, their closer in Rafael Soriano, and their starting left fielder in Carl Crawford through free agency. Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett were traded away for increased financial flexibility. This is a team that is definitely in rebuilding mode, and are planning on contending in another couple of seasons.

However, the Rays possess one of the best managers in baseball in Joe Maddon, a deep minor league system filled with prospects, and a smart front office. They have a plan, and they know how to execute it to perfection. It may not always be pretty, and there will be cycles where the Rays will not be competitive, but they will cycle back around. Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, and Jake McGee are all expected to contribute at the major league level this season. Behind them are Hak-Ju Lee, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, and Josh Sale. The Rays, like Arnold in the Terminator, will be back.

Look for the Rays to return to prominence in 2013, but the future is bright down in Tampa.

5. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles are a very perplexing franchise. They are easily the worst team in a ridiculously difficult division, yet every year they seem to delude themselves into believe that they are a competitive ballclub. They make signings and trades as though they expect to compete every year, and refuse to recognize that they are, in fact, awful. The offseason signings of Vlad Guerrero and Derrek Lee, along with the trade for Mark Reynolds, further prove that this organization does not have anything resembling a long term plan.

On the positive side, the Orioles have some solid arms coming up. Brian Matusz pitched well during the second half of last year. Chris Tillman should contribute this season. Zack Britton and Dan Klein are on the way to the major leagues, and may be called up in September. Manny Machado is an elite prospect at shortstop. However, behind them, there is not a lot to get excited about. Buck Showalter has a lot of experience in getting young teams ready to compete, but he has had a lot more to work with than what he has been given in Baltimore.

The Orioles desperate need to recognize their situation and go full bore into rebuilding mode. Until they do so, this team is destined to take up permanent residence in the American League East basement.