On to part three of the 2011 baseball season preview. This time, the American League West is featured. Teams are listed in order of their expected finish.
1. Texas Rangers: The Rangers have an extremely potent offense when healthy. With Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, and Ian Kinsler, the lineup already had several tremendous hitters. Adding Adrian Beltre to that mix makes this already formidable lineup even better. In the bullpen, they have Neftali Feliz, who was the AL Rookie of the Year last year as closer. With the additions of Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes, along with prospect Alexi Ogando, the bullpen is solid.
The biggest concern with the Rangers is their health. Cruz, Hamilton, and Kinsler all missed significant time last season. Hamilton, in particular, is a definate injury concern as he has played in over 135 games just once in his four year career. The rotation is also littered with question marks. Last season, the Rangers had a team ERA of 3.93, but that was also a product of players such as Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter having career years. Cliff Lee is no longer there to solidify the rotation and be that stopper in the event of a losing streak.
Despite this, the Rangers are still the team to beat in the AL West, and should reach the postseason for consecutive years for the first time since 1998 and 1999.
2. Oakland A's: The A's dramatically improved their team this offseason. By adding David DeJesus through trade, and the free agent signings of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, they have solidified a lineup that was anemic at best. While none of these signings are expected to hit 30 or more home runs, they fit perfectly with the ballpark, as they are prototypical doubles hitters. The pitching staff is both young and solid. Brett Anderson looks like a potential ace in the making. Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez are a solid group of pitchers, and should continue to improve this season.
The middle infield is the biggest weakness for this team. Mark Ellis cannot stay healthy, and at age 34, does not promise to gain any durability. Cliff Pennington is a black hole on offense, and is easily replaced. When the Cardinals made Brendan Ryan available, the A's should have made a move to grab him. While he wouldn't prove much more with the bat, he would solidify their infield defense, which Pennington does not.
Even with the questions in the middle of their infield, the A's should contend for the division title, and are my pick for the American League Wild Card.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels offseason was filled with disappointment. After attempting to get Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford, they made a trade that screamed of desperation by moving Mike Napoli and Jaun Rivera for Vernon Wells and his ridiculous contract. Despite this, the Wells acquisition does improve their defense. The offense is still solid, with the return of Kendry Morales only serving to improve the lineup.
The rotation is a concern after Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. Ervin Santana, Joel Piniero, and Scott Kazmir do not inspire any confidence in their ability (or lack thereof) to get major league hitters out. Kazmir in particular has fallen off dramatically since his trade from Tampa Bay. The closer position is also a potential landmine, with Fernando Rodney and his 1.544 WHiP being counted on to close out ballgames. Rodney has the potential to completely napalm the ninth inning on any given night.
This is a team with a lot of holes and a questionable pitching staff. They will finish far behind the Rangers and the A's.
4. Seattle Mariners: This team is flat out terrible. Aside from Ichiro's hitting ability and his streak of 200 hits per year, and the ability to watch Felix Hernandez pitching, there really are not a lot of reasons to be excited for this ballclub. There are a few promising players coming through the pipeline in Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, and Nick Franklin; however, they need a lot more help.
The offense last season scored a total of 513 runs last year, or just under 3.2 per game. As such, their biggest offseason move was to get rid of Jose Lopez and bring in Brendan Ryan, who provides a great glove but nothing on offense. After Hernandez in the rotation is the AAAA platter of Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Luke French, and the perpetually injured Erik Bedard. This team is terrible beyond comprehension.
The only thing that the Mariners will be competing for in 2011 is the ability to draft first in 2012.
Showing posts with label 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
2011 Preview - American League Central
For Part Two of the 2011 baseball preview, we look at the American League Central. Teams are listed in the order of their anticipated finish.
1. Chicago White Sox: Despite losing their closer in Bobby Jenks, the White Sox had a solid offseason. In signing Adam Dunn as a free agent to bolster an already solid lineup, they have increased their offensive firepower. Even with the loss of Jenks, the bullpen is still solid and deep. Matt Thornton is expected to take over as the closer, after an excellent 2010 where he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.005 WHiP, and 81 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. If he falters, Chris Sale, the first round draft pick in 2010, is ready to take over. After making his debut on August 6, he posted an ERA of 1.93, a 1.071 WHiP, and striking out 32 batters over 23.1 innings. The rotation, while it does not have a specific pitcher that can be pointed to as an 'ace', is filled with pitchers that would be a number two or number three starter on most any other team.
The biggest question mark with the White Sox is how Jake Peavy will return from his injury. He had surgery last summer to reattach his latissimus dormi muscle in his shoulder, which is a procedure that is quite rare in baseball. As of now, his velocity is down, but he is still pitching relatively effectively. However, if he goes down again, that is a major hole to fill.
By virtue of their depth and Ozzie Guillen's ability to somhow make the right moves, the White Sox are the team that should win a very competitive AL Central.
2. Minnesota Twins: The Twins got a major boost this offseason without needing to make a signing in the return of Joe Nathan. With his return to the bullpen, this gives the Twins three pitchers with significant closing experience in Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Like the White Sox, the Twins have a rotation without a specific ace, but all of their pitchers would slot as a number two or three on most other teams. The lineup, when healthy, is very good. Anchored by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, they scored the fifth most runs per game and had the fourth highest OPS in the American League, even with Morneau being out of the lineup after July 8th.
The Twins health is a major concern with Morneau recovering from a severe concussion and the Joe Mauer's tendancy to get hurt. Also, the defense in the outfield is horrible. With the spacious outfield at Target Field, the lack of range between Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel could hurt the Twins in 2011.
The Twins should battle with the White Sox for most of the 2011 season, but in the end, they will fall just short.
3. Detroit Tigers: The Detroit Tigers were quite active this offseason, acquiring Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit as free agents, and resigning Magglio Ordonez. The offense, which was already solid, has improved with these signings and Ordonez's return. Miguel Cabrera and Brendan Boesch will benefit from the improved lineup, as Cabrera will have more protection behind him. Boesch's production decreased when Ordonez got hurt, and he will benefit from having these veteran hitters around him in the lineup. Benoit fortifies a deep bullpen, along with a finally healthy Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde returning as closer.
The primary concern with the Tigers is their rotation. They have a legitimate number one starter in Justin Verlander; however, the rest of the rotation is a major concern. There are no guarantees that Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, or Brad Penny will pitch well. Scherzer did pitch much better after a mid season demotion to AAA last season, but he has yet to show any consistency at the major league level. Rounding out the rotation is Phil Coke, who the Tigers are hoping to convert to starting after he has spent the last three years as a reliever. They also have the spectre of Cabrera's DUI arrest hanging overhead. While i do not expect that to be a distraction, there is still the concern that Selig may suspend him or demand that he re-enters rehab, which would severely hurt the Tigers chances this year.
While the Tigers will be competitive, they simply do not have the rotation to keep up with the White Sox or the Twins. They would need to out slug their opponents to win the division, and they simply are not consistent enough to do so.
4. Cleveland Indians: When you are a team that will be lucky to win 70 games, the greatest strength of the team should not be the bullpen. However, in Cleveland, that is exactly where their strength lies. Chris Perez is a solid closer, and looks to be on his way to becoming one of the elite closers in the game. With him in the bullpen are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, both strong arms that could close if Perez falters. They have some good young players coming up, with Carlos Santana projected to become an elite catcher, and Lonnie Chisenhall expected to debut at third base for them sometime this season. Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera are the main building blocks in the major league lineup, and both are excellent players.
The rest of the lineup is filled with major holes that were not addressed in the offseason. The Indians only major pickup as a free agent was Austin Kearns, which is not a move that inspires much confidence. The Indians are hoping that Travis Hafner remains healthy, that Grady Sizemore is finally healthy, and that Matt LaPorta can show some of the talent that had him considered to be a top prospect, and the key to the C.C. Sabathia trade. Meanwhile, the rotation is littered with AAAA pitchers. Fausto Carmona is the defacto number one, and is the only member of the rotation that could be considered major league material.
The Indians are in for a very long season, and it may be a few years before they are able to seriously expect to contend.
5. Kansas City Royals: Let's be up front - the Royals are not about 2011. They plan on competing in 2012 and beyond.
With that out of the way, the Royals are difficult to forecast for 2011. They have a number of elite prospects on the verge of reaching the majors, several of which may be called up before the September roster expansion. The lineup on opening day will not look anything like the lineup sent on to the field in September. The Royals, being cognisant of having the best system in baseball, signed the free agents they acquired to one year deals, so as to not block any of the prospects for 2012. For the present, they have a great closer in Jaokim Soria, and what promises to be a solid bullpen, despite the likelihood that they will have three rookies playing key roles. Billy Butler continues to hit at a solid level, and while he needs to develop more power, he has essentially become the 2010's version of Mark Grace.
However, this team has absolutely no offense aside from Butler. Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera were brought in as free agents, but will probably be traded by the deadline if the Royals can get anything for them. The rotation has very little to show for it, but once again, this is by design. Zack Greinke, their ace, was traded this offseason to Milwaukee in a move that brought over their shortstop and center fielder for the next few years. However, the Royals are placing their hopes on prospects, which is not always a formula for success. If these players flame out, the Royals are in serious trouble going forward.
The Royals have a great future, and should contend in 2012 and beyond. 2011 is more about giving some of the prospects major league experience than it is about attempting to win the Central.
1. Chicago White Sox: Despite losing their closer in Bobby Jenks, the White Sox had a solid offseason. In signing Adam Dunn as a free agent to bolster an already solid lineup, they have increased their offensive firepower. Even with the loss of Jenks, the bullpen is still solid and deep. Matt Thornton is expected to take over as the closer, after an excellent 2010 where he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.005 WHiP, and 81 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. If he falters, Chris Sale, the first round draft pick in 2010, is ready to take over. After making his debut on August 6, he posted an ERA of 1.93, a 1.071 WHiP, and striking out 32 batters over 23.1 innings. The rotation, while it does not have a specific pitcher that can be pointed to as an 'ace', is filled with pitchers that would be a number two or number three starter on most any other team.
The biggest question mark with the White Sox is how Jake Peavy will return from his injury. He had surgery last summer to reattach his latissimus dormi muscle in his shoulder, which is a procedure that is quite rare in baseball. As of now, his velocity is down, but he is still pitching relatively effectively. However, if he goes down again, that is a major hole to fill.
By virtue of their depth and Ozzie Guillen's ability to somhow make the right moves, the White Sox are the team that should win a very competitive AL Central.
2. Minnesota Twins: The Twins got a major boost this offseason without needing to make a signing in the return of Joe Nathan. With his return to the bullpen, this gives the Twins three pitchers with significant closing experience in Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Like the White Sox, the Twins have a rotation without a specific ace, but all of their pitchers would slot as a number two or three on most other teams. The lineup, when healthy, is very good. Anchored by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, they scored the fifth most runs per game and had the fourth highest OPS in the American League, even with Morneau being out of the lineup after July 8th.
The Twins health is a major concern with Morneau recovering from a severe concussion and the Joe Mauer's tendancy to get hurt. Also, the defense in the outfield is horrible. With the spacious outfield at Target Field, the lack of range between Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel could hurt the Twins in 2011.
The Twins should battle with the White Sox for most of the 2011 season, but in the end, they will fall just short.
3. Detroit Tigers: The Detroit Tigers were quite active this offseason, acquiring Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit as free agents, and resigning Magglio Ordonez. The offense, which was already solid, has improved with these signings and Ordonez's return. Miguel Cabrera and Brendan Boesch will benefit from the improved lineup, as Cabrera will have more protection behind him. Boesch's production decreased when Ordonez got hurt, and he will benefit from having these veteran hitters around him in the lineup. Benoit fortifies a deep bullpen, along with a finally healthy Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde returning as closer.
The primary concern with the Tigers is their rotation. They have a legitimate number one starter in Justin Verlander; however, the rest of the rotation is a major concern. There are no guarantees that Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, or Brad Penny will pitch well. Scherzer did pitch much better after a mid season demotion to AAA last season, but he has yet to show any consistency at the major league level. Rounding out the rotation is Phil Coke, who the Tigers are hoping to convert to starting after he has spent the last three years as a reliever. They also have the spectre of Cabrera's DUI arrest hanging overhead. While i do not expect that to be a distraction, there is still the concern that Selig may suspend him or demand that he re-enters rehab, which would severely hurt the Tigers chances this year.
While the Tigers will be competitive, they simply do not have the rotation to keep up with the White Sox or the Twins. They would need to out slug their opponents to win the division, and they simply are not consistent enough to do so.
4. Cleveland Indians: When you are a team that will be lucky to win 70 games, the greatest strength of the team should not be the bullpen. However, in Cleveland, that is exactly where their strength lies. Chris Perez is a solid closer, and looks to be on his way to becoming one of the elite closers in the game. With him in the bullpen are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, both strong arms that could close if Perez falters. They have some good young players coming up, with Carlos Santana projected to become an elite catcher, and Lonnie Chisenhall expected to debut at third base for them sometime this season. Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera are the main building blocks in the major league lineup, and both are excellent players.
The rest of the lineup is filled with major holes that were not addressed in the offseason. The Indians only major pickup as a free agent was Austin Kearns, which is not a move that inspires much confidence. The Indians are hoping that Travis Hafner remains healthy, that Grady Sizemore is finally healthy, and that Matt LaPorta can show some of the talent that had him considered to be a top prospect, and the key to the C.C. Sabathia trade. Meanwhile, the rotation is littered with AAAA pitchers. Fausto Carmona is the defacto number one, and is the only member of the rotation that could be considered major league material.
The Indians are in for a very long season, and it may be a few years before they are able to seriously expect to contend.
5. Kansas City Royals: Let's be up front - the Royals are not about 2011. They plan on competing in 2012 and beyond.
With that out of the way, the Royals are difficult to forecast for 2011. They have a number of elite prospects on the verge of reaching the majors, several of which may be called up before the September roster expansion. The lineup on opening day will not look anything like the lineup sent on to the field in September. The Royals, being cognisant of having the best system in baseball, signed the free agents they acquired to one year deals, so as to not block any of the prospects for 2012. For the present, they have a great closer in Jaokim Soria, and what promises to be a solid bullpen, despite the likelihood that they will have three rookies playing key roles. Billy Butler continues to hit at a solid level, and while he needs to develop more power, he has essentially become the 2010's version of Mark Grace.
However, this team has absolutely no offense aside from Butler. Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera were brought in as free agents, but will probably be traded by the deadline if the Royals can get anything for them. The rotation has very little to show for it, but once again, this is by design. Zack Greinke, their ace, was traded this offseason to Milwaukee in a move that brought over their shortstop and center fielder for the next few years. However, the Royals are placing their hopes on prospects, which is not always a formula for success. If these players flame out, the Royals are in serious trouble going forward.
The Royals have a great future, and should contend in 2012 and beyond. 2011 is more about giving some of the prospects major league experience than it is about attempting to win the Central.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Cliff Lee's Decision
Up until last night, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Cliff Lee would either end up on the Texas Rangers or on the New York Yankees. Both teams had met with him multiple times, and extended contract offers that were lucritive in both length and dollar amount. Both teams had made it known to him that he was the focal point of their offseasons. It appeared that Lee was destined to either remain in the heart of Texas or to be wearing pinstripes.
Early in the day on Monday, rumors began to swirl that there was a third team that had offered a contract, a mystery team that had bid upon his services. Most pundits dismissed this notion as a negotiating ploy intended to drive up Lee's price on the market. Both the Rangers and Yankees held firm on their offers, secure in their belief that it would be down to those two. Then, late Monday night, Cliff Lee signed. Turns out, there really was a mystery team all along - the Philadelphia Phillies, who had just traded him to Seattle in the past offseason in a three team deal which garnered them Roy Halladay.
The rotation that Philadelhia is going to be sending out now has a top four of Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. This is, quite simply, the best starting rotation in baseball going into 2011. The only team that is even close is the San Fransisco Giants, who they lost to in the NLCS just about a month and a half ago. The Phillies have four bona fide aces that will go out and pitch for eighty percent of their games. Oh, and their number five starter, Joe Blanton? He's gotten 25 wins in the two and a half seasons he's been in Philadelphia, and would slot as a solid number three on a lot of teams.
Speaking of the last NLCS, it appears that the Phillies are taking their defeat to heart. After watching that pitching staff shut down their offense and the offense of the Texas Rangers, they went out and built an even better rotation than the one they faced. Yes, their offense may be slightly worse than it was last season with the departure of Jayson Werth, but he was deemed expendable due to the presence of Dominic Brown, their top prospect. If Brown can produce even a fraction of what Werth gave them, then the trade off is worth it.
As it stands, the road to the World Series in the national League now runs through Philadelphia. Barring injury, no other team can boast the rotation and nucleus the Phillies have. And they are set up to rule the National League for years to come.
Early in the day on Monday, rumors began to swirl that there was a third team that had offered a contract, a mystery team that had bid upon his services. Most pundits dismissed this notion as a negotiating ploy intended to drive up Lee's price on the market. Both the Rangers and Yankees held firm on their offers, secure in their belief that it would be down to those two. Then, late Monday night, Cliff Lee signed. Turns out, there really was a mystery team all along - the Philadelphia Phillies, who had just traded him to Seattle in the past offseason in a three team deal which garnered them Roy Halladay.
The rotation that Philadelhia is going to be sending out now has a top four of Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. This is, quite simply, the best starting rotation in baseball going into 2011. The only team that is even close is the San Fransisco Giants, who they lost to in the NLCS just about a month and a half ago. The Phillies have four bona fide aces that will go out and pitch for eighty percent of their games. Oh, and their number five starter, Joe Blanton? He's gotten 25 wins in the two and a half seasons he's been in Philadelphia, and would slot as a solid number three on a lot of teams.
Speaking of the last NLCS, it appears that the Phillies are taking their defeat to heart. After watching that pitching staff shut down their offense and the offense of the Texas Rangers, they went out and built an even better rotation than the one they faced. Yes, their offense may be slightly worse than it was last season with the departure of Jayson Werth, but he was deemed expendable due to the presence of Dominic Brown, their top prospect. If Brown can produce even a fraction of what Werth gave them, then the trade off is worth it.
As it stands, the road to the World Series in the national League now runs through Philadelphia. Barring injury, no other team can boast the rotation and nucleus the Phillies have. And they are set up to rule the National League for years to come.
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