2012 Fantasy Baseball Busts

With every fantasy baseball season, there are players that dramatically out perform expectations. On the flip side, there are those players that fail in often spectacular fashion, to the point where they may derail a seemingly promising fantasy run. The key is to notice those players whose statistics from the previous season are not likely to be sustained, and let other people grab them much earlier than they should go. Here are our picks by position:

Catcher – Power hitting catchers that can produce a decent batting average are a scarce commodity. Catchers that hit .320 with 30 home runs are even rarer. Last year, Mike Napoli reached both of those levels with only 432 plate appearances. However, his batting average with inflated by a .344 BABip. In his career, Napoli has had one other season where his BABip was over .300, and that was 2009, when he .272. Yes, playing in Texas will help, but he is much more likely to play like an average catcher than an elite player this year.

First Base – The obvious choice here would be Ryan Howard, as his final at bat in 2011 left him crumpled upon the ground with a torn Achilles. Yet, there is a player who is considered elite at this position whose batting average has decreased in each of the last five seasons. Yes, Mark Teixeira can still hit home runs, but that is about all he can do right now. He has abandoned the concept of trying to put the ball into play to go after home runs with the short porch at Yankee Stadium. While he can provide two categories, he will absolutely kill teams in the other three.

Second Base – Take a player with dramatic home/road splits, questionable health, and a career year in most categories. Put them all together, and you have Ian Kinsler. Kinsler, for his career, hits .309 at home, and just .243 on the road. He has been injured numerous times over his career, so there is no guarantee that he can have a second consecutive year that he does not get injured. Over the past three years, he has hit 31,9, and 32 home runs. His batting average over the course of the year has fluctuated from .253 to .319. Strangely, in both his 30-30 seasons, he had the lowest two batting averages (.253 and .255) of his career. Kinsler is way too inconsistent and injury prone, and is just as likely to be a wasted pick as he is to be a valuable fantasy league producer.

Third Base – Anyone remember Kevin Maas? Or Shane Spenser? Or Sam Horn? Those players looked like elite players over their first 150 at bats in the major leagues, then faded into obscurity. Brett Lawrie may not end up with a career that was as disappointing as the players mentioned, but he is not a guarantee to be a stud either. Lawrie has a history of being a bit of a mental case, and that may derail his career more than anything else. Some publications have him ranked as highly as the third best third baseman in league, which is ridiculous. Classic over-hyped prospect.

Shortstop – Contract year? Check. One reasonably healthy year for a player with an injury history? Check. Big, guaranteed contract? Check. Ladies and gentlemen, meet Jose Reyes! The newly minted Miami Marlin won a batting title and stole 39 bases last year, despite missing time with a hamstring injury. In fact, he has had injuries to both his calf and hamstring over the past three years, which does not bode well for a player who relies on his speed. Reyes is the ultimate risk-reward player at shortstop – he could be great, but he could miss most of the year as well.

Outfield – Over the past two seasons, a total of ten players have combined for 40 home runs and 70 stolen bases. Of those ten, Drew Stubbs has had the lowest batting average and fewest RBI. He has struck out in 28.9% of his plate appearances over his career, and the rate has increased each season. His walk rate, meanwhile, has been around 9%. He has an OPS+ of 96 in his career, and he simply cannot get on base. Normally, a player that has both speed and power is a player to covet, but not if those are the only two things he provides. There is also the possibility that he could gt benched if he starts slowly, since the Reds have a lot of outfield depth. Let someone else jump on the supposed break out year for this 27 year old.

Starting Pitcher – Over the past six years, Josh Beckett has been dominant in odd numbered years, yet decidedly mediocre in even numbered years. Guess what 2012 is. Add to this trend the fact that he seems to be obsessed with an alleged rat in the Boston clubhouse who ruined the ‘Chicken and Beer’ fun, and there is a forecast for disaster. Beckett also does have a bit of an injury history as well. He has been far too inconsistent over his career to expect back-to-back impressive campaigns.

Relief Pitcher – Repeat after me – do not chase saves. Do not draft a closer just because he happened to lead the major leagues in saves, especially if he did so with a below average WHiP and K/9 rate. In short, avoid Jose Valverde. Valverde went 49-49 in save opportunities last season, but how likely is he to repeat that? Valverde is 34, has had his K/9 decrease each of the last six seasons, and has seen his BB/9 climb above 4 for the last couple of seasons. as soon as he starts blowing a few games, he will be nothing more than a replacement level closer in a typical fantasy league.

Detroit Tigers 2012 Season Preview

In 2011, the Detroit Tigers were easily the class of the American League Central, boasting a solid lineup, an absolute stud ace pitcher, and a good bullpen. This year, they have improved the lineup, and bring back the same rotation. But will the Tigers be better?
For all the buzz centered around Justin Verlander, the rest of the rotation is pretty good. Verlander, who is not only the reigning Cy Young Award winner, but also the reigning MVP, is perhaps the best starting pitcher in the game. On his own, he automatically gives the Tigers a chance to win every game he pitches. Max Scherzer has shown flashes of greatness, and has started to be more consistant in each outing. Doug Fister is a very underrated pitcher, and solidified the rotation when he came over in the midseason trade from Seattle. Rick Porcello was decent at times last year, and will regress this season (more on that in a bit). Jacob Turner is likely to win the fifth starter position, and by default will be an upgrade over the corpse of Brad Penny. But will the pitching actually look as good as they really are? Scherzer, Porcello, and Fister are all groundball pitchers, and the Tigers defense around the infield has the mobility of Christopher Reeve. They will give up a lot more runs than last year, but may actually pitch better.

The bullpen suffered a big loss with the Al Alburquerque injury, but Octovio Dotel will help to minimize the damage. Jose Valverde was a perfect 49-49 in save attempts last season, but shows some signs of wear, as his K/9 has steadily decreased over the past four seasons. Phil Coke has been moved back to the bullpen after the Tigers attempt to turn him into a starter. Coke is a dominant lefty reliever, and will help bridge the gap to Valverde. Joaquin Benoit is a solid setup man, and will hold down the eighth inning.

The outfield consists of Andy Dirks in right field, Austin Jackson in center, and Brennan Boesch in left. Boesch missed roughly a third of the season with a thumb injury, but had been improved in his second season. Jackson has a lot of speed, but is not great at tracking down fly balls. He also has a tendency to strike out a lot for a leadoff hitter, which truly limits his effectiveness. Dirks is expected to be the starting right fielder, but is far from a sure thing to start the season with the Tigers. He tore up the Dominican winter league, and is looking to use that as a springboard to success in Detroit. If he falters, Delmon Young will step in. Ryan Raburn, slated to the be starting second baseman, can also play in the outfield if needed.

With the Tigers infield, we can safely say two things – they will hit well, and they will not catch the ball whatsoever. Miguel Cabrera moves over the third base after having not played there since 2008, when it took 14 games for Jim Leyland to decide that there were not enough cigarettes in Detroit for him to deal with Cabrera’s lack of defense. Yes, Cabrera may be one of the two best hitters in the game, but he is a much better first baseman than third baseman. Next to him is Jhonny Peralta, he whose parental units did not have spell check. Peralta can hit, but is an absolute butcher in the field. Ryan Raburn is a converted outfielder who is playing second base, and is actually the best defensive player starting in the Tigers infield. With a full season of plate appearances, he could have a breakout year. Prince Fielder signed a huge contract after Victor Martinez was lost for the season, and will take over for Cabrera at first. He provides another 40+ home run bat, but is a major defensive liability. Brandon Inge, upset after being sent to the bench after hitting less than .200 last year, will still see a lot of playing time as a defensive replacement. Yes, the offense will be better, but the pitching staff will have nightmares of double play grounders becoming hits.

Alex Avila broke out in a big way last season as the Tigers starting catcher. He was helped by a .366 batting average on balls in play, which points to regression this year. On the positive side, he did display a solid batting eye and the ability to take a walk. He will also be the main starting catcher even if he struggles, as backup Gerald Laird is useless with a bat. Delmon Young is slated to be the designated hitter, but that may change if either Boesch or Dirks struggle in the outfield. If that happens, either Fielder or Cabrera wil likely become the DH, with Inge moving into the starting lineup.

On paper, the Tigers are better than they were last season. While they will likely win the AL Central , they may not be as good a team. the lack of infield defense will keep them from winning a World Series.