2012 Fantasy Baseball Busts

With every fantasy baseball season, there are players that dramatically out perform expectations. On the flip side, there are those players that fail in often spectacular fashion, to the point where they may derail a seemingly promising fantasy run. The key is to notice those players whose statistics from the previous season are not likely to be sustained, and let other people grab them much earlier than they should go. Here are our picks by position:

Catcher – Power hitting catchers that can produce a decent batting average are a scarce commodity. Catchers that hit .320 with 30 home runs are even rarer. Last year, Mike Napoli reached both of those levels with only 432 plate appearances. However, his batting average with inflated by a .344 BABip. In his career, Napoli has had one other season where his BABip was over .300, and that was 2009, when he .272. Yes, playing in Texas will help, but he is much more likely to play like an average catcher than an elite player this year.

First Base – The obvious choice here would be Ryan Howard, as his final at bat in 2011 left him crumpled upon the ground with a torn Achilles. Yet, there is a player who is considered elite at this position whose batting average has decreased in each of the last five seasons. Yes, Mark Teixeira can still hit home runs, but that is about all he can do right now. He has abandoned the concept of trying to put the ball into play to go after home runs with the short porch at Yankee Stadium. While he can provide two categories, he will absolutely kill teams in the other three.

Second Base – Take a player with dramatic home/road splits, questionable health, and a career year in most categories. Put them all together, and you have Ian Kinsler. Kinsler, for his career, hits .309 at home, and just .243 on the road. He has been injured numerous times over his career, so there is no guarantee that he can have a second consecutive year that he does not get injured. Over the past three years, he has hit 31,9, and 32 home runs. His batting average over the course of the year has fluctuated from .253 to .319. Strangely, in both his 30-30 seasons, he had the lowest two batting averages (.253 and .255) of his career. Kinsler is way too inconsistent and injury prone, and is just as likely to be a wasted pick as he is to be a valuable fantasy league producer.

Third Base – Anyone remember Kevin Maas? Or Shane Spenser? Or Sam Horn? Those players looked like elite players over their first 150 at bats in the major leagues, then faded into obscurity. Brett Lawrie may not end up with a career that was as disappointing as the players mentioned, but he is not a guarantee to be a stud either. Lawrie has a history of being a bit of a mental case, and that may derail his career more than anything else. Some publications have him ranked as highly as the third best third baseman in league, which is ridiculous. Classic over-hyped prospect.

Shortstop – Contract year? Check. One reasonably healthy year for a player with an injury history? Check. Big, guaranteed contract? Check. Ladies and gentlemen, meet Jose Reyes! The newly minted Miami Marlin won a batting title and stole 39 bases last year, despite missing time with a hamstring injury. In fact, he has had injuries to both his calf and hamstring over the past three years, which does not bode well for a player who relies on his speed. Reyes is the ultimate risk-reward player at shortstop – he could be great, but he could miss most of the year as well.

Outfield – Over the past two seasons, a total of ten players have combined for 40 home runs and 70 stolen bases. Of those ten, Drew Stubbs has had the lowest batting average and fewest RBI. He has struck out in 28.9% of his plate appearances over his career, and the rate has increased each season. His walk rate, meanwhile, has been around 9%. He has an OPS+ of 96 in his career, and he simply cannot get on base. Normally, a player that has both speed and power is a player to covet, but not if those are the only two things he provides. There is also the possibility that he could gt benched if he starts slowly, since the Reds have a lot of outfield depth. Let someone else jump on the supposed break out year for this 27 year old.

Starting Pitcher – Over the past six years, Josh Beckett has been dominant in odd numbered years, yet decidedly mediocre in even numbered years. Guess what 2012 is. Add to this trend the fact that he seems to be obsessed with an alleged rat in the Boston clubhouse who ruined the ‘Chicken and Beer’ fun, and there is a forecast for disaster. Beckett also does have a bit of an injury history as well. He has been far too inconsistent over his career to expect back-to-back impressive campaigns.

Relief Pitcher – Repeat after me – do not chase saves. Do not draft a closer just because he happened to lead the major leagues in saves, especially if he did so with a below average WHiP and K/9 rate. In short, avoid Jose Valverde. Valverde went 49-49 in save opportunities last season, but how likely is he to repeat that? Valverde is 34, has had his K/9 decrease each of the last six seasons, and has seen his BB/9 climb above 4 for the last couple of seasons. as soon as he starts blowing a few games, he will be nothing more than a replacement level closer in a typical fantasy league.

Baseball's Dream Team

Apparently, putting together a ‘Dream Team’ has become the latest trend, roughly akin to the latest technological device. And like that new technology, it hasn’t worked out as expected.

Remember when the Miami Heat rolled out the first ‘Dream Team’ and how everyone anointed them as the NBA Champions before a single game had been played? Remember how LeBron demonstrated that he could count to seven as though he was the NBA version of The Count from Sesame Street when discussing how many championships they would win? Or remember how the Philadelphia Eagles were thought to be the future Super Bowl Champions and the regular season was merely a formality? Yeah, how well did that work out for either team?

Now the Miami Marlins are ignoring the lessons of history. And not distant history, such as when military leaders manage to forget that attacking Russia in the winter is a bad idea. This is recent history; in fact, it’s history in their own city. Obviously foresight and recognition of a problem are not amongst the strengths of the Marlins front office.

To further this point, look at the acquisitions they have made and the players they have been linked to. Already, they have signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell. They have been linked to C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder. Now, look at the roster that they are returning. Of the problems the Marlins had, shortstop and first base were not amongst those. Yes, they needed some help in the rotation and Buehrle fits that role, but does anyone really think that C.J. Wilson is truly worth ace money, especially when they already have Josh Johnson? Ridiculous.

Then there is the insanity that was the Jose Reyes signing. They already had an All-Star caliber shortstop in Hanley Ramirez. So why spend a ludicrous amount of money on a shortstop that can never stay healthy? Especially one with a history of leg, knee, and ankle injuries, whose best asset just so happens to be speed? Did they really expect Ramirez to be ok with the move, and quietly slide over the third base? Guess they completely botched their appraisal of that situation.

Meanwhile, the two most glaring holes on their roster have yet to actually be addressed. The primary third basemen for the Marlins hit a total of eight home runs last year. Eight. The had a center field combo that involved Emilio Bonifacio and Chris Coghlan. But obviously, those positions should not be a priority in free agency, when the team is opening it’s checkbook for the first time since 1997.

Sadly, there are free agents available that would have helped the Marlins in those very spots. Aramis Ramirez comes to mind. His bat in the middle of that lineup would make the Marlins rather formidable. Center field would be a bit harder to fill, but David DeJesus would have been a nice addition and can play a bit of center. Of the remaining free agents, Coco Crisp would be a solid signing, and probably would not cost a lot. This would allow the Marlins to spend money locking up their own talented young players. Instead, they will have a total of six players under contract in 2013. Six. Guess they didn’t get the memo that they are not playing fantasy baseball down there.

Like the other ‘Dream Teams’, this one will fail to meet expectations. Expect the Marlins to miss the playoffs, and unless Ozzie Guillen works more of his magic, they will finish below .500.

Defending Jose Reyes

Today, during the 2011 finale for the New York Mets, Jose Reyes got a bunt single in his first at bat. He then immediately took himself out of the game, knowing full well that the 2011 NL Batting Title was in hand. Naturally, Mets fans (all five of them) are regarding this with outrage, infuriated that he would disregard their desire to see them and that he would show such little regard for the organization.

Look at this from Reyes’ point of view. This is his contract year, and he will be one of the marques free agents available. He has a unique skillset with his deadly speed and he plays at a premium position. After seeing the contract that Carl Crawford received in the offseason, he is angling to get something comparable. While Reyes does have injury issues, he now has something that Crawford does not – a batting title. Reyes is looking to get paid, pure and simple.

Meanwhile, Mets fans are whining that he is disrespecting the organization with his actions. What they are conveniently forgetting is that the Mets disrespected him first. Remember when Wilpon went on that rant about Reyes? He made the best player on his failure of a ballclub the target of his ire, saying the he does not deserve to get paid. Meanwhile, he has several fine examples of carbon based wastage on the payroll in Jason Bay, Angel Pagan, K-Rod (at the time), or Oliver Perez. But no, he singled out the best offensive player on the team, and it is not even close (Reyes has a WAR of 5.8. The next closest hitter on the team that is still there is Daniel Murphy at 1.9).

Respect is a two way street. Reyes was disrespected by ownership and by the Mets front office. Now, he is positioning himself to get a better contract. If the Mets had anything resembling baseball acumen, they would have locked him up and built the team around what he can provide them. However, they alienated the only reason people have to go out to that ballpark. Reyes is as good as gone, and the Mets will have absolutely nothing on offense next year. Forget any notion that they can spend in free agency; they still have the Madoff mess to deal with and possibly pay for. Where do the reinforcements come from then?

Jose Reyes did what was the right thing for Jose Reyes. Professional sports, the players, coaches, and even the owners, are nothing more than a collection of mercenaries. Nothing more, nothing less. They sell themselves to the highest bidders, maximizing the brief time that they can make maximum money in a child’s game. Do not romantize it. Accept it for what it is. And then realize that Jose Reyes is not at fault.