Going in to 2011, the Minnesota Twins appeared ready to do what they have always done – compete for the AL Central title despite never quite appearing good enough on paper. Well, last year the wheels fell off, as the pitching was terrible and Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Denard Span were all hurt. By the end of the year, the Twins may as well have had a AAAA roster, and it showed in the results.
For the Twins to be better in 2012, the rotation needs to pitch better. One would think that, since they gave up the second most runs in the American League, that they would be better by default, right? Wrong. When 2/5 of your rotation consists of batting practice pitchers such as Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis, you’re going to get pounded like a nerd with lunch money. While Francisco Liriano pitched a no hitter last year, it may have actually been the worst no hitter in the history of baseball. It also came against the White Sox, who couldn’t have hit the broad side of a barn last year. The Twins need him to pitch like he did in 2010, not like the imposter that was wearing his jersey in 2011. Carl Pavano makes starts, and is able to get through innings. That’s about it. On almost any other team in baseball, he’s a fifth starter. In Minnesota? Pavano is the second starter, which should tell you everything that needs to be known about this atrocity of a pitching staff. Scott Baker, if he can stay healthy, is actually a decent starter who had a 4-1 K/BB rate last year. Unfortunately, he also got hammered by the injury bug. If he can stay healthy, the Twins may be able to win 60 games. If not, there may not be a limit to how far they can sink.
As bad as the rotation is, and it’s God-Awful, the bullpen may be worse. Matt Capps is a mediocre closer at best, but at least he only cost them Wilson Ramos *sarcasm*. Glen Perkins was handed a three year deal to be the setup man, instead of the Twins using that money to actually, you know, help their team in any truly useful fashion. Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak was moved from the rotation to the bullpen, which speaks volumes about their effectiveness. The rest of the bullpen may as well be pitching machines or people from the stands, since they would probably be just as effective.
In the outfield, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer departed in free agency. The Twins replaced them with Ben Revere, who is a future leadoff candidate with solid speed and defense, but limited upside; and Josh Willingham. Willingham also has a history of injury problems, and really may be better as a fourth outfielder or DH. Denard Span is expected to be healthy, and will be desperately needed on a team that is going to need to manufacture runs. Expect to see a lot of Rene Tosoni this year, which is good news for his relatives and no one else.
Around the infield, it doesn’t get much better either. Danny Valencia hit 15 home runs last year, and got on base at a .294 clip. The Twins thought about sending him back to the minors last year, and may end up doing so this year. Jamey Carroll is a decent utility infielder, but is going to be the Twins starting shortstop. This is because Alexi Casilla is going to be the everyday second baseman, if he can stay healthy (notice a trend?) Casilla can run, and that’s about it. He ends up at second base because Tsuyoshi Nishioka may have been a bigger disappointment than WaterWorld. Some combination of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer will play first base, if either are healthy. Morneau is still battling concussion symptoms from 2010, and may never get back to form.
At catcher are the aforementioned Mauer and Ryan Doumit. Doumit is expected to be the Twins DH, which should keep him from having as many trips to the DL as he typically has. This means that Drew Butera gets mentioned in this post. Do not expect analysis of Drew Butera. We are not wasting out time. Mauer may never hit 28 home runs again, but he is still one of the best catchers in baseball. If he’s healthy, he may be the only reason to watch a Twins game.
The Twins will be one of the teams ‘competing’ for the worst record in baseball this season. The worst part is, they do not have any real prospects that are close to making an impact, or veterans that could bring something back in trade. The Twins will be awful, and will be for a while.
Showing posts with label Minnesota Twins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minnesota Twins. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
A Tale of Two Milestone
When Derek Jeter was staring down 3000 hits, it was practically impossible to avoid coverage of his quest. Whenever one turned on ESPN, looked at a sports website, or listened to a baseball game, there was Jeter. It got to a point where it almost seemed as though it was a part of his contract that he needed to be mentioned everywhere. Of course, if it was, Alex Rodriguez would have negotiated a clause in his contract where he needed to be mentioned more than Jeter.
Meanwhile, there was another player marching towards a milestone. In fact, the milestone that he was chasing was more exclusive than getting to 3000 hits. While Jeter became the 28th player to get 3000 hits, only seven people had gotten to this other feat. Yet, due to the low profile approach to the game the player has, very little attention was paid to his quest. The player? Jim Thome. The milestone? 600 home runs.
With a two home run game last night, Thome became the eighth player to get to 600 home runs for a career. His name now joins players like Mays, Ruth, Aaron, Griffey, Bonds, A-Rod, and Sosa. Yet, it seems as though no one cares. Why is this?
There are a number of reasons for this. First, Thome never really captured the imagination of America. He has only been an All-Star five times over his twenty year career. He has never finished higher than fourth in the MVP vote. He has played for teams that aren’t exactly constantly on television with the Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Dodgers, and Twins. His peak was during the height of the steroid era, where he was being overshadowed by players like Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and A-Rod. He just isn’t an exciting player.
Secondly, there is the entire steroid era. Thome has never been linked to PEDs, but he played during that era. Baseballs were leaving the yard with amazing frequency. In fact, three of the players he joins in the 600 home run club have been linked to steroids, and one is an admitted user. Yet Thome was never hauled in front of Congress, was never the focus of a smear campaign headed by Major League Baseball, and just destroyed the ol’ horsehide with regularity.
This actually leads to the third reason. Due to the steroid era, people are jaded with home run hitters. Remember the old baseball ad stating ‘Chicks dig the long ball’? Maybe they did back in the day, but now people just expect them to happen. Over the past decade, five players joined the 600 home run club. Meanwhile, only three players have joined the 3000 hit club in the same time frame. The oversaturation of the home run in baseball has led people to think that 3000 hits are a more difficult accomplishment to get to, when that is simply not the case.
When Derek Jeter got to 3000 hits, you could not escape the coverage. Meanwhile, Jim Thome got to 600 home runs to a collective yawn. It’s unfortunate that a player who did things the right way is not getting the due he deserves.
Meanwhile, there was another player marching towards a milestone. In fact, the milestone that he was chasing was more exclusive than getting to 3000 hits. While Jeter became the 28th player to get 3000 hits, only seven people had gotten to this other feat. Yet, due to the low profile approach to the game the player has, very little attention was paid to his quest. The player? Jim Thome. The milestone? 600 home runs.
With a two home run game last night, Thome became the eighth player to get to 600 home runs for a career. His name now joins players like Mays, Ruth, Aaron, Griffey, Bonds, A-Rod, and Sosa. Yet, it seems as though no one cares. Why is this?
There are a number of reasons for this. First, Thome never really captured the imagination of America. He has only been an All-Star five times over his twenty year career. He has never finished higher than fourth in the MVP vote. He has played for teams that aren’t exactly constantly on television with the Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Dodgers, and Twins. His peak was during the height of the steroid era, where he was being overshadowed by players like Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and A-Rod. He just isn’t an exciting player.
Secondly, there is the entire steroid era. Thome has never been linked to PEDs, but he played during that era. Baseballs were leaving the yard with amazing frequency. In fact, three of the players he joins in the 600 home run club have been linked to steroids, and one is an admitted user. Yet Thome was never hauled in front of Congress, was never the focus of a smear campaign headed by Major League Baseball, and just destroyed the ol’ horsehide with regularity.
This actually leads to the third reason. Due to the steroid era, people are jaded with home run hitters. Remember the old baseball ad stating ‘Chicks dig the long ball’? Maybe they did back in the day, but now people just expect them to happen. Over the past decade, five players joined the 600 home run club. Meanwhile, only three players have joined the 3000 hit club in the same time frame. The oversaturation of the home run in baseball has led people to think that 3000 hits are a more difficult accomplishment to get to, when that is simply not the case.
When Derek Jeter got to 3000 hits, you could not escape the coverage. Meanwhile, Jim Thome got to 600 home runs to a collective yawn. It’s unfortunate that a player who did things the right way is not getting the due he deserves.
Friday, May 13, 2011
A Tribute to Harmon Killebrew
This installment of the Card of the Week (or not quite a week) features the 1975 Topps Harmon Killebrew card, number 640 in the set. The 1975 Topps set was noted for it's two color frame around the photos, a radically different look than the previous sets had. It was almost as though Topps was trying to cash in on having drugged up people look at the card borders and have strange trips.
The reason for the card, and Killebrew in particular, is actually a melancholy one. This card was actually the final card produced by Topps during his playing career, and it feels like a fitting tribute to this great player. Killebrew, as some of you may not have heard, was battling esophageal cancer. Now, at age 74, he has decided to end his battle, and is settling into hospice care to live out the rest of his days.
Killebrew, even when looking at the inflated numbers of the steroid era, still rates as one of the top sluggers in baseball history. His 573 home runs ranks 11th on the all-time list, just behind Mark McGwire. His eight seasons with 40 or more home runs is second all-time, trailing only Babe Ruth. He also made 11 All-Star games, and won an MVP award in 1969.
Killebrew was known as a humble, gentle person, whose nickname of 'Killer' was the furthest possible from his way of being. When asked about his nickname once, Killebrew said "I didn't have evil intentions, but I guess I did have power." With 573 career homers, there is no guesswork as to how much power he truly had.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Francisco Liriano's Not-So-Dominant No Hitter
Usually when one thinks of no-hitters, they think of utter dominance. Maybe two or three walks, a decent amount of strikeouts, and a wake of confused hitters left behind. Then there are no hitters such as the one pitched last night by Francisco Liriano.
Liriano threw 123 pitches over nine innings, walking six while only striking out two. He threw first pitch balls to 19 of the 30 batters he faced. Of his 123 pitches, only 66 were strikes. His two strikeouts were the fewest in a no hitter since Jerry Reuss had two during his in 1980.
Also, the White Sox offense has been thoroughly anemic this season, hitting .236 for the year, which is 12th in the American League. Their OPS of .668 ranks 11th in the AL. Of their regulars, only Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin have an OPS+ of over 100. Their starting third baseman, Brent Morel, has an OPS+ of 20. Prized free agent acquisition Adam Dunn is hitting .157 for the Sox. This team is not the 1927 Yankees here.
Give Liriano credit for throwing the no hitter at a time where he was pitching for his spot in the rotation. Yes, it is special to pitch a no hitter. However, do not equate this no hitter to a dominant preformance. It was anything but.
Liriano threw 123 pitches over nine innings, walking six while only striking out two. He threw first pitch balls to 19 of the 30 batters he faced. Of his 123 pitches, only 66 were strikes. His two strikeouts were the fewest in a no hitter since Jerry Reuss had two during his in 1980.
Also, the White Sox offense has been thoroughly anemic this season, hitting .236 for the year, which is 12th in the American League. Their OPS of .668 ranks 11th in the AL. Of their regulars, only Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin have an OPS+ of over 100. Their starting third baseman, Brent Morel, has an OPS+ of 20. Prized free agent acquisition Adam Dunn is hitting .157 for the Sox. This team is not the 1927 Yankees here.
Give Liriano credit for throwing the no hitter at a time where he was pitching for his spot in the rotation. Yes, it is special to pitch a no hitter. However, do not equate this no hitter to a dominant preformance. It was anything but.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
2011 Preview - American League Central
For Part Two of the 2011 baseball preview, we look at the American League Central. Teams are listed in the order of their anticipated finish.
1. Chicago White Sox: Despite losing their closer in Bobby Jenks, the White Sox had a solid offseason. In signing Adam Dunn as a free agent to bolster an already solid lineup, they have increased their offensive firepower. Even with the loss of Jenks, the bullpen is still solid and deep. Matt Thornton is expected to take over as the closer, after an excellent 2010 where he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.005 WHiP, and 81 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. If he falters, Chris Sale, the first round draft pick in 2010, is ready to take over. After making his debut on August 6, he posted an ERA of 1.93, a 1.071 WHiP, and striking out 32 batters over 23.1 innings. The rotation, while it does not have a specific pitcher that can be pointed to as an 'ace', is filled with pitchers that would be a number two or number three starter on most any other team.
The biggest question mark with the White Sox is how Jake Peavy will return from his injury. He had surgery last summer to reattach his latissimus dormi muscle in his shoulder, which is a procedure that is quite rare in baseball. As of now, his velocity is down, but he is still pitching relatively effectively. However, if he goes down again, that is a major hole to fill.
By virtue of their depth and Ozzie Guillen's ability to somhow make the right moves, the White Sox are the team that should win a very competitive AL Central.
2. Minnesota Twins: The Twins got a major boost this offseason without needing to make a signing in the return of Joe Nathan. With his return to the bullpen, this gives the Twins three pitchers with significant closing experience in Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Like the White Sox, the Twins have a rotation without a specific ace, but all of their pitchers would slot as a number two or three on most other teams. The lineup, when healthy, is very good. Anchored by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, they scored the fifth most runs per game and had the fourth highest OPS in the American League, even with Morneau being out of the lineup after July 8th.
The Twins health is a major concern with Morneau recovering from a severe concussion and the Joe Mauer's tendancy to get hurt. Also, the defense in the outfield is horrible. With the spacious outfield at Target Field, the lack of range between Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel could hurt the Twins in 2011.
The Twins should battle with the White Sox for most of the 2011 season, but in the end, they will fall just short.
3. Detroit Tigers: The Detroit Tigers were quite active this offseason, acquiring Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit as free agents, and resigning Magglio Ordonez. The offense, which was already solid, has improved with these signings and Ordonez's return. Miguel Cabrera and Brendan Boesch will benefit from the improved lineup, as Cabrera will have more protection behind him. Boesch's production decreased when Ordonez got hurt, and he will benefit from having these veteran hitters around him in the lineup. Benoit fortifies a deep bullpen, along with a finally healthy Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde returning as closer.
The primary concern with the Tigers is their rotation. They have a legitimate number one starter in Justin Verlander; however, the rest of the rotation is a major concern. There are no guarantees that Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, or Brad Penny will pitch well. Scherzer did pitch much better after a mid season demotion to AAA last season, but he has yet to show any consistency at the major league level. Rounding out the rotation is Phil Coke, who the Tigers are hoping to convert to starting after he has spent the last three years as a reliever. They also have the spectre of Cabrera's DUI arrest hanging overhead. While i do not expect that to be a distraction, there is still the concern that Selig may suspend him or demand that he re-enters rehab, which would severely hurt the Tigers chances this year.
While the Tigers will be competitive, they simply do not have the rotation to keep up with the White Sox or the Twins. They would need to out slug their opponents to win the division, and they simply are not consistent enough to do so.
4. Cleveland Indians: When you are a team that will be lucky to win 70 games, the greatest strength of the team should not be the bullpen. However, in Cleveland, that is exactly where their strength lies. Chris Perez is a solid closer, and looks to be on his way to becoming one of the elite closers in the game. With him in the bullpen are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, both strong arms that could close if Perez falters. They have some good young players coming up, with Carlos Santana projected to become an elite catcher, and Lonnie Chisenhall expected to debut at third base for them sometime this season. Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera are the main building blocks in the major league lineup, and both are excellent players.
The rest of the lineup is filled with major holes that were not addressed in the offseason. The Indians only major pickup as a free agent was Austin Kearns, which is not a move that inspires much confidence. The Indians are hoping that Travis Hafner remains healthy, that Grady Sizemore is finally healthy, and that Matt LaPorta can show some of the talent that had him considered to be a top prospect, and the key to the C.C. Sabathia trade. Meanwhile, the rotation is littered with AAAA pitchers. Fausto Carmona is the defacto number one, and is the only member of the rotation that could be considered major league material.
The Indians are in for a very long season, and it may be a few years before they are able to seriously expect to contend.
5. Kansas City Royals: Let's be up front - the Royals are not about 2011. They plan on competing in 2012 and beyond.
With that out of the way, the Royals are difficult to forecast for 2011. They have a number of elite prospects on the verge of reaching the majors, several of which may be called up before the September roster expansion. The lineup on opening day will not look anything like the lineup sent on to the field in September. The Royals, being cognisant of having the best system in baseball, signed the free agents they acquired to one year deals, so as to not block any of the prospects for 2012. For the present, they have a great closer in Jaokim Soria, and what promises to be a solid bullpen, despite the likelihood that they will have three rookies playing key roles. Billy Butler continues to hit at a solid level, and while he needs to develop more power, he has essentially become the 2010's version of Mark Grace.
However, this team has absolutely no offense aside from Butler. Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera were brought in as free agents, but will probably be traded by the deadline if the Royals can get anything for them. The rotation has very little to show for it, but once again, this is by design. Zack Greinke, their ace, was traded this offseason to Milwaukee in a move that brought over their shortstop and center fielder for the next few years. However, the Royals are placing their hopes on prospects, which is not always a formula for success. If these players flame out, the Royals are in serious trouble going forward.
The Royals have a great future, and should contend in 2012 and beyond. 2011 is more about giving some of the prospects major league experience than it is about attempting to win the Central.
1. Chicago White Sox: Despite losing their closer in Bobby Jenks, the White Sox had a solid offseason. In signing Adam Dunn as a free agent to bolster an already solid lineup, they have increased their offensive firepower. Even with the loss of Jenks, the bullpen is still solid and deep. Matt Thornton is expected to take over as the closer, after an excellent 2010 where he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.005 WHiP, and 81 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. If he falters, Chris Sale, the first round draft pick in 2010, is ready to take over. After making his debut on August 6, he posted an ERA of 1.93, a 1.071 WHiP, and striking out 32 batters over 23.1 innings. The rotation, while it does not have a specific pitcher that can be pointed to as an 'ace', is filled with pitchers that would be a number two or number three starter on most any other team.
The biggest question mark with the White Sox is how Jake Peavy will return from his injury. He had surgery last summer to reattach his latissimus dormi muscle in his shoulder, which is a procedure that is quite rare in baseball. As of now, his velocity is down, but he is still pitching relatively effectively. However, if he goes down again, that is a major hole to fill.
By virtue of their depth and Ozzie Guillen's ability to somhow make the right moves, the White Sox are the team that should win a very competitive AL Central.
2. Minnesota Twins: The Twins got a major boost this offseason without needing to make a signing in the return of Joe Nathan. With his return to the bullpen, this gives the Twins three pitchers with significant closing experience in Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Like the White Sox, the Twins have a rotation without a specific ace, but all of their pitchers would slot as a number two or three on most other teams. The lineup, when healthy, is very good. Anchored by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, they scored the fifth most runs per game and had the fourth highest OPS in the American League, even with Morneau being out of the lineup after July 8th.
The Twins health is a major concern with Morneau recovering from a severe concussion and the Joe Mauer's tendancy to get hurt. Also, the defense in the outfield is horrible. With the spacious outfield at Target Field, the lack of range between Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel could hurt the Twins in 2011.
The Twins should battle with the White Sox for most of the 2011 season, but in the end, they will fall just short.
3. Detroit Tigers: The Detroit Tigers were quite active this offseason, acquiring Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit as free agents, and resigning Magglio Ordonez. The offense, which was already solid, has improved with these signings and Ordonez's return. Miguel Cabrera and Brendan Boesch will benefit from the improved lineup, as Cabrera will have more protection behind him. Boesch's production decreased when Ordonez got hurt, and he will benefit from having these veteran hitters around him in the lineup. Benoit fortifies a deep bullpen, along with a finally healthy Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde returning as closer.
The primary concern with the Tigers is their rotation. They have a legitimate number one starter in Justin Verlander; however, the rest of the rotation is a major concern. There are no guarantees that Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, or Brad Penny will pitch well. Scherzer did pitch much better after a mid season demotion to AAA last season, but he has yet to show any consistency at the major league level. Rounding out the rotation is Phil Coke, who the Tigers are hoping to convert to starting after he has spent the last three years as a reliever. They also have the spectre of Cabrera's DUI arrest hanging overhead. While i do not expect that to be a distraction, there is still the concern that Selig may suspend him or demand that he re-enters rehab, which would severely hurt the Tigers chances this year.
While the Tigers will be competitive, they simply do not have the rotation to keep up with the White Sox or the Twins. They would need to out slug their opponents to win the division, and they simply are not consistent enough to do so.
4. Cleveland Indians: When you are a team that will be lucky to win 70 games, the greatest strength of the team should not be the bullpen. However, in Cleveland, that is exactly where their strength lies. Chris Perez is a solid closer, and looks to be on his way to becoming one of the elite closers in the game. With him in the bullpen are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, both strong arms that could close if Perez falters. They have some good young players coming up, with Carlos Santana projected to become an elite catcher, and Lonnie Chisenhall expected to debut at third base for them sometime this season. Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera are the main building blocks in the major league lineup, and both are excellent players.
The rest of the lineup is filled with major holes that were not addressed in the offseason. The Indians only major pickup as a free agent was Austin Kearns, which is not a move that inspires much confidence. The Indians are hoping that Travis Hafner remains healthy, that Grady Sizemore is finally healthy, and that Matt LaPorta can show some of the talent that had him considered to be a top prospect, and the key to the C.C. Sabathia trade. Meanwhile, the rotation is littered with AAAA pitchers. Fausto Carmona is the defacto number one, and is the only member of the rotation that could be considered major league material.
The Indians are in for a very long season, and it may be a few years before they are able to seriously expect to contend.
5. Kansas City Royals: Let's be up front - the Royals are not about 2011. They plan on competing in 2012 and beyond.
With that out of the way, the Royals are difficult to forecast for 2011. They have a number of elite prospects on the verge of reaching the majors, several of which may be called up before the September roster expansion. The lineup on opening day will not look anything like the lineup sent on to the field in September. The Royals, being cognisant of having the best system in baseball, signed the free agents they acquired to one year deals, so as to not block any of the prospects for 2012. For the present, they have a great closer in Jaokim Soria, and what promises to be a solid bullpen, despite the likelihood that they will have three rookies playing key roles. Billy Butler continues to hit at a solid level, and while he needs to develop more power, he has essentially become the 2010's version of Mark Grace.
However, this team has absolutely no offense aside from Butler. Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera were brought in as free agents, but will probably be traded by the deadline if the Royals can get anything for them. The rotation has very little to show for it, but once again, this is by design. Zack Greinke, their ace, was traded this offseason to Milwaukee in a move that brought over their shortstop and center fielder for the next few years. However, the Royals are placing their hopes on prospects, which is not always a formula for success. If these players flame out, the Royals are in serious trouble going forward.
The Royals have a great future, and should contend in 2012 and beyond. 2011 is more about giving some of the prospects major league experience than it is about attempting to win the Central.
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