Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts

Monday, March 26, 2012

Projecting Jeremy Hellickson

Last year, Jeremy Hellickson won the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year Award, winning 13 games with a 2.95 ERA. At only 25, and pitching for a team that has a knack for developing pitchers as the Rays do, it would appear that his potential is limitless. But how good is Hellickson really going to be?

In 2011, he held opponents to a .210 batting average. This was built mainly upon an insanely low .223 average on balls in play. As the league average is approximately .300, Hellickson got very lucky last year. Yes, the Rays were the best fielding team in baseball least year, and should only get better now that Carlos Pena has returned, but can Hellickson really bank on that type of luck again? When looking back at the last twenty pitchers that held opponents to a batting average on balls in play of between .200 and .250, most of them had severe regression the following year. The ones that avoided this trend were Roger Clemens, Jamie Moyer, and Barry Zito. Zito actually improved his batting average on balls in play against, marking the last time he was relevant in anything other than punchlines for bad contracts.

Then there are Hellickson’s strike out and walk rates. After posting only two walks per nine innings and a strike out rate of 8.2 per nine innings in a brief trial in 2010, he walked 3.43 batters per nine last year. His strike out rate plummeted to 5.6 per nine innings. One thing Hellickson does have going for him in terms of future strike out improvement is a solid difference between his fastball and offspeed pitches – his fastball averaged 90.9 MPH last season, his curve and change were at 75.5 and 79.9 MPH respectively. However, that is an average fastball that he throws, meaning that he will need to rely more on control than the ability to throw the baseball past the opposition. Unless he cuts down on his walk rate, he will be in even more trouble next year.
According to the always entertaining comparison chart on baseballreference.com, the following ten pitchers compare to Hellickson’s age 24 season: Doc Medich, Rich Gale, Pedro Astacio, Joey Hamilton, George Meakim, Bob Buhl, Mike Dunne, Steve Gromek, Rip Collins, and Bobby Jones. Of those ten pitchers, only three of them (Buhl, Gromek, and Jones) had an All-Star Game appearance. Even then, it was one selection each. Most of those pitchers did not even win 100 games in their career, as they were unable to sustain the luck they had in their rookie seasons going forward.

Hellickson, however, has several factors in his favor. First, Tropicana Field is one of the better pitcher’s parks in baseball. For every 100 runs scored at a neutral park, the Trop has averaged 90 over the past four years. With the large foul territory and open bullpens, it’s a pitcher’s dream. Second, as mentioned previously, he has a great defense behind him. The Rays were the best in baseball in almost every defensive metric last season, and will only get better now that Pena is back. And third, while it is a small sample size, Hellickson does not give up a lot of hard hit balls. Those weak pop ups and ground balls will help keep his ERA down, and make him look a lot better than he is.

As it stands, Hellickson appears destined for a 12 to 15 win, 4.00 ERA season. While it is a solid year, especially for a pitcher that is going to be the fourth or fifth starter, it is not ace material. Hellickson should have a decent career as a middle of the rotation starter, but do not expect much more than that.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Tampa Bay Rays 2012 Season Preview

At the beginning of 2011, the Tampa Bay Rays were written off as a team that had simply lost too many pieces to contend. Fast forward to the end of the year, and with the help of the Red Sox collapse, the Rays found themselves in the playoffs yet again.

The foundation for the Rays success begins with their formidable rotation. While they are all relatively young, Joe Maddon has proven to have delivered great results with youth. James Shields, at age 30, is the elder statesman amongst the starting rotation. While he had a career season last year, regression is to be expected, as his WHiP was far below his average mark. After a disastrous 2010, he managed to trim over two full runs from his ERA. He’s not as good as he looked in 2011, but not as bad as he was in 2010. The truth is someplace in between. Jeremy Hellickson is also a prime target for regression. Despite a fairly high walk rate and a low strikeout rate, he was helped immensely by a .223 batting average on balls in play against him. Some of the regression amongst Shields and Hellickson will be mitigated by the expected improvement from David Price and a season of Matt Moore in the rotation. Price continues to show improvement in cutting down his walk rate and has increased his strikeout rate. Moore is a phenom who tore through the minor leagues last year, and pitched well in the playoffs, as he was the surprise starter of Game One of the ALDS against Texas. Wade Davis had a solid sophomore season, and is likely to be the fifth starter, pushing Jeff Neimann either to long relief, or to the trade block.

The Rays gambled on making Kyle Farnsworth their closer last season, and it paid off. Farnsworth, who could typically be counted on to naplam any close game, put up a career season as he almost doubled his career total in saves. He returns as the closer again in 2012, but should he falter, the Rays have a plethora of options available. Jake McGee was drafted to be the Rays closer of the future, and would slide right in if needed. J.P. Howell had a disappointing 2011, but is likely to bounce back. Joel Peralta is an underrated set up man who got to an 0-2 count on 34% of batters faced last season. In that situation, he gave up only three hits all year. Fernando Rodney was also signed to a one year deal with a team option. If he can regain the form that he had previously, he may be another solid option for the seventh and eighth innings.

In the outfield are left fielder Desmond Jennings, center fielder B.J. Upton, and right fielder Matt Joyce. Upton has all the tools necessary to become great, but has a tendency to chase terrible pitches out of the strike zone and laying off fastballs down the middle of the plate. While he is a 20 home run/20 stolen base player, he may never be the elite offensive threat everyone expected. The same diagnosis can be placed on Desmond Jennings. While he was a rookie last year, he was expected to be Carl Crawford. He did end up being similar to Crawford, only it was the Carl Crawford from Boston last season. If he does not show significant improvement this season, it would not be out of the question for the Rays to try to find another option and trade Jennings. Matt Joyce can take a walk, steal the occasional base, and has a bit of power, but is more of a fourth outfielder. At this point, he probably is what he is.

At third base is Evan Longoria, who, even in a down year, had over thirty home runs. His batting average was dragged down by injuries and a .239 batting average on balls in play. Expect him to regain his form as an elite player, and the cornerstone of the lineup. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac will likely platoon at shortstop, although neither has proven to be an asset with the bat. Rodriguez may eventually take the job full time, as he has displayed a bit of power, and Brignac has an awful .272 on base percentage in his career. Either way, both players are merely holding down the position until Hak Ju Lee is brought up. Second base is held down by the very underrated Ben Zobrist. Zobrist not only provides one of the better bats in the lineup, but he also has the capability to play wherever he is needed. Carlos Pena was brought back, and while he may not hit for a high average, he does provide another power bat in the lineup, and plays Gold Glove caliber defense.

Catcher underwent a significant change, as both John Jaso and Kelly Stoppach were allowed to depart. In their place, the Rays brought in Jose Molina. While he is essentially useless with the bat, he is one of the best defensive catchers in the game. In fact, he was brought in for his ability to frame pitches – according to PitchFX, he saved 62.8 runs from framing pitches since 2008, despite playing a total of 264 games. Anything he contributes with the bat will be a bonus. At DH, the Rays brought in Orioles cast off Luke Scott, who had a terrible year in 2011, but had three consecutive years with 20+ home runs prior to that. Scott is another low-risk, high reward type player that the Rays seem to have luck with. Expect a bounce back year.

On paper, the Rays do not appear to have enough to contend with the Red Sox, Yankees, or even the Blue Jays this season. However, the same was said at the start of 2011. Joe Maddon is able to get the most out of the pieces he is given, and the pitching staff is more than enough to keep them competitive. Expect the Rays to contend for the wild card again this year.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Red Sox and Rays - Out Of Playoff Contention?

It is still very early in the baseball season, with the first week just being concluded. However, there are still two teams that have yet to taste victory. One is the Tampa Bay Rays, which may not be much of a surprise given the talent they lost this offseason. The second is the Boston Red Sox, which is shocking considering how most experts predicted them to win the World Series.

For the Red Sox or the Rays to win the World Series after this start would truly be historic. The worst start for a team to still make the playoffs is 0-5, by the 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates and the 1995 Cincinnati Reds. Both the Red Sox and Rays find themselves at 0-6 presently.

Now does this mean that both teams are already out of playoff attention? Not at all. If either of these teams lost six games in a row in the middle of the season, analysts would be paying much less attention. However, this is at the start of the year, where the accumulating losses are more obvious, especially when both teams have been swept by teams that were expected to be terrible (the Rays by Baltimore, the Sox by Cleveland).

The Rays have become just the second team to go from having the best record in the American League to 0-5, joining the 1905 Red Sox. They have been horrendous on offense, becoming the fourth team since 1919 to score one or fewer runs in five of their first six games. The Rays rank dead last in baseball in runs (7), batting average (.136), on base percentage (.218), and slugging (.260). The Sox, meanwhile, are 29th in batting average (.190) and 26th in runs (16). The biggest issue for Boston, even more than their offense, has been their pitching. They rank dead last in ERA (8.33), 29th in WHiP (1.68), had not had a quality start until today.

So, are both teams out of it already? In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'til it's over." But the odds are certainly stacked against both clubs after the first week.

Monday, March 14, 2011

2011 Preview - American League East

This is the first part of what is going to be a six part 2011 baseball preview. For Part One, the American League East is reviewed. The teams are listed in the order that I anticipate them finishing in.

1. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox easily had the best offseason of any team in baseball. Signing Carl Crawford as a free agent and trading for Adrian Gonzalez dramatically improves a lineup that was already formidable in it's own right. The rotation features four starters that could be the number one on any number of teams in Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey. The bench is filled with solid depth players and veterans. This is a team with very few weaknesses, and is the best team on paper.

There are several questions on the Sox, but they are relatively minor. First is the health on their team. Youkilis, Pedroia, and Ellsbury all missed significant time last year. Gonzalez is coming off of shoulder surgery. By all indications, they are all healthy and ready to go. Also, one must ask where Johnathon Papelbon's head is at. For him, he had an off year last year, and the Sox brought in Bobby Jenks in the event that he falters once again.

Nonetheless, this is the team that will win the AL East, and is likely to be the American League representative in the World Series.

2. Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays managed to win 85 games last season despite Aaron Hill and Adam Lind hitting .205 and .237 respectively. While Jose Bautista's power is expected to decrease this season after hitting 54 home runs last year, it is worth noting that he hit 10 in September of 2009 after an adjustment to his batting stance. Even with a dropoff from Bautista, improved production from Lind and Hill should more than make up for the difference.

Despite trading Shaun Marcum to the Brewers, the Blue Jays still have a deep rotation. Brendan Morrow, Ricky Romero, and Brett Cecil all did a solid job last year. Jesse Litsch is being added to the mix, as he spent most of last year recovering from injuries. The fifth spot int he rotation is a battle between prospect Kyle Drabek and Marc Rzepczynski. The bullpen has been improved with the addition of Frank Francisco as their presumed closer.

The Blue Jays are a team with a good direction and a solid future. 2012 is the more likely year to expect them to begin to contend for the postseason, but this team has the potential to accelerate that curve.

3. New York Yankees: Despite their best efforts on the free agent front, the Yankees found themselves in an unusual situation - perusing the bargain bin looking for potential bargains. After missing out on Cliff Lee, they signed a plethora of low risk free agent pitchers in Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia. Russell Martin was signed to take over as the primary catcher from Jorge Posada. Rafeal Soriano was brought in to solidify the bullpen and as insurance in the even that the ageless Mariano Rivera falters. However, the Soriano signing was curious given the contract (3 years for $15 million) and that General Manager Brian Cashman went out of his way to remove himself from that signing.

The core of the Yankees in Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, and Rivera are getting old. Posada and A-Rod have become injury risks, and Posada has essentially become the Yankees full time DH at this stage of his career. The rotation behind C.C. Sabathia is littered with question marks and unproven talent. A.J. Burnett can be napalm at any given moment. Phil Hughes had a solid year in 2010, but is he able to build off of that? The battle for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation is uninspiring at best, with Colon, Garcia, Ivan Nova, and Sergio Mitre battling to make the roster. Not exactly the team that one pictures the Yankees having.

Age and a lack of organizational depth that is ready to perform at the major league level are due to catch up to the Yankees. 2011 should be the first sign of slippage.

4. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays got absolutely hammered in this offseason. They lost their starting first baseman in Carlos Pena, their closer in Rafael Soriano, and their starting left fielder in Carl Crawford through free agency. Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett were traded away for increased financial flexibility. This is a team that is definitely in rebuilding mode, and are planning on contending in another couple of seasons.

However, the Rays possess one of the best managers in baseball in Joe Maddon, a deep minor league system filled with prospects, and a smart front office. They have a plan, and they know how to execute it to perfection. It may not always be pretty, and there will be cycles where the Rays will not be competitive, but they will cycle back around. Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, and Jake McGee are all expected to contribute at the major league level this season. Behind them are Hak-Ju Lee, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, and Josh Sale. The Rays, like Arnold in the Terminator, will be back.

Look for the Rays to return to prominence in 2013, but the future is bright down in Tampa.

5. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles are a very perplexing franchise. They are easily the worst team in a ridiculously difficult division, yet every year they seem to delude themselves into believe that they are a competitive ballclub. They make signings and trades as though they expect to compete every year, and refuse to recognize that they are, in fact, awful. The offseason signings of Vlad Guerrero and Derrek Lee, along with the trade for Mark Reynolds, further prove that this organization does not have anything resembling a long term plan.

On the positive side, the Orioles have some solid arms coming up. Brian Matusz pitched well during the second half of last year. Chris Tillman should contribute this season. Zack Britton and Dan Klein are on the way to the major leagues, and may be called up in September. Manny Machado is an elite prospect at shortstop. However, behind them, there is not a lot to get excited about. Buck Showalter has a lot of experience in getting young teams ready to compete, but he has had a lot more to work with than what he has been given in Baltimore.

The Orioles desperate need to recognize their situation and go full bore into rebuilding mode. Until they do so, this team is destined to take up permanent residence in the American League East basement.