Chicago White Sox 2012 Season Preview

At this time in 2011, the Chicago White Sox looked like a legitimate contender to make the playoffs. They had added a consistantly solid bat in Adam Dunn for the middle of their lineup, had a great manager in Ozzie Guillen, and only had the Detroit Tigers as a team to contend against. Fast forward one year, and the White Sox are a train wreck. Guillen is gone, replaced with a rookie manager. General Manager Kenny Williams is making moves without seeming to have a plan. This is going to be a brutal season for the entire city of Chicago (more on that when we mock preview the Cubs), but especially for the White Sox.

The starting pitching on the White Sox could have anywhere from one to four decent pitchers. Gavin Floyd returns as the defacto ace of the rotation, but is badly miscast in that role. While he has provided solid strikeout to walk ratios and a decent WHiP since he has been given a full-time role, he has also had only one season with an ERA under 4.00. Likewise, John Danks does not strike out a lot of hitters, and gives up a decent amount of baserunners. Both slot better as a third starter. Jake Peavy continues to hunt for the elusive healthy season, and will probably be injured by the All-Star Break yet again. When healthy, he is one of the best in the game, but can he be counted on for more than 20 starts? Philip Humber pitched well last season, but does anyone really expect that to continue? Jason Simontacchi also had one good year, and how did his career go? Chris Sale actually could be the best of this group. He was lights out in the bullpen, and has the pitching repetoire and skills to succeed.

The bullpen could be a disaster. Matt Thornton proved that he cannot be a closer in the most empathic way possible, short of bring out a can of petrol to the mound and lighting himself on fire like a protester at the G8. However, when he was mercifully put back into the setup role, he pitched a lot better. Sergio Santos, last year’s closer, was traded for essentially nothing, so the closer role now falls upon hard throwing rookie Addison Reed. Reed struck out 12 batters in 7.1 innings last year, so he may have the makings of a Craig Kimbrel type of season (fantasy sleeper alert!) Jesse Crain returns to the bullpen, and is a solid piece for the seventh and eighth innings. However, any thought of him opening the season as the closer while easing Reed into the role is pure insanity. Will Ohman is pegged as the lefty specialist, but he really isn’t that good. The bullpen will be a lot worse than last year.

In the outfield, the White Sox will likely have Alejandro De Aza in left, Alex Rios in center, and Dayan Viciedo in right. There are enough question marks with the outfield, that they may as well wear Riddler costumes. Can De Aza, a 27 year old career minor leaguer, hit like he did in his 57 game trial over the final two months of the season? Can Alex Rios not be one of the worst players in baseball? Can Dayan Viciedo be a decent enough glove in right field where he does not evoke memories of Jose Canseco trying to field a ball? Chances are, two of these questions will be answered with ‘NO!’ Of the three, Viciedo has the best chance to be a solid contributor the entire season. Alex Rios did pull his astonishing disappearing act in 2009 as well, when he moped his way out of Toronto. De Aza screams fluke with his .404 BABiP last year. This group could be fairly bad.

Yet, as awful as the outfield could be, the infield may be even worse. Third baseman Brett Morel was atrocious until he went on a late season tear. Can he use that burst in September as a springboard for 2012? Unlikely, but there is a glimmer of hope, albeit a rather faint one. Alexei Ramirez is what he is, a 15 home run, 15 stolen base shortstop who plays solid defense and does not really do any one thing well. However, he may be the best bat in this lineup by default. One time mega-prospect Gordon Beckham has gotten progressively worse since his rookie season, and may actually be just a bench player. Paul Konerko continued to roll along, but is 36. How long will his body hold up?

Furthering what may be one of the worst lineups this side of the American League West, Adam Dunn managed to put up what may have been the worst season in major league history. Congratulations Bill Bergen, you are no longer the biggest embarrassment to be an every day player. The surprising part of Dunn’s collapse was how remarkably consistant he was for the ten years prior to that. Was this just a fluke season, or is Dunn….well….done? Chances are that he bounces back, but it really won’t be difficult to have a better season. At catcher is A.J. Pierzynski, a player who has played at backup level (check his WAR) over most of his career, yet still somehow finds a way to get over 400 at bats per season. Backup Tyler Flowers is another former top prospect whose stock has fallen dramatically (notice a trend here?) but he does have some power potential. If he can hit to start the year, he may finally end Pierzynski’s reign of terror at the catcher position.

In the end, the White Sox will be terrible this season. They have a rookie manager, no direction, a barren minor league system, and no hope. They will struggle to not finish in the basement of the American League Central.

Francisco Liriano's Not-So-Dominant No Hitter

Usually when one thinks of no-hitters, they think of utter dominance. Maybe two or three walks, a decent amount of strikeouts, and a wake of confused hitters left behind. Then there are no hitters such as the one pitched last night by Francisco Liriano.

Liriano threw 123 pitches over nine innings, walking six while only striking out two. He threw first pitch balls to 19 of the 30 batters he faced. Of his 123 pitches, only 66 were strikes. His two strikeouts were the fewest in a no hitter since Jerry Reuss had two during his in 1980.

Also, the White Sox offense has been thoroughly anemic this season, hitting .236 for the year, which is 12th in the American League. Their OPS of .668 ranks 11th in the AL. Of their regulars, only Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin have an OPS+ of over 100. Their starting third baseman, Brent Morel, has an OPS+ of 20. Prized free agent acquisition Adam Dunn is hitting .157 for the Sox. This team is not the 1927 Yankees here.

Give Liriano credit for throwing the no hitter at a time where he was pitching for his spot in the rotation. Yes, it is special to pitch a no hitter. However, do not equate this no hitter to a dominant preformance. It was anything but.

1918 World Series Fixed?

Everyone that knows baseball knows of the infamous Chicago Black Sox scandal of 1919. Eight players, most notably Shoeless Joe Jackson and Eddie Cicotte, were banned from baseball for life as a result of their throwing the World Series. However, a court disposition from 1920 shows that Cicotte and the others may have gotten the idea from an outside source - the cross town Chicago Cubs.

While he did not name any specific players and was intentionally vague, Cicotte mentions how during train rides to the east coast, players would discuss how a member or members of the Cubs got $10,000 for throwing the series. Incidentally, $10,000 is the same amount of money that was left in Cicotte's hotel room for him to throw the 1919 World Series.

Going through the statistics for the 1918 World Series, there are no significant dropoffs in production for any of the players. Despite this, research on plays during the 1918 World Series shows that there were several suspicious incidents involving outfielder Max Flack. During game 4 of the series, Flack was picked off twice. In game 6, he turned a catchable fly ball into an error, leading to two runs scoring in a 2-1 defeat, causing the Cubs to lose the World Series. There was another instance where Flack was playing Babe Ruth shallow in the outfield, and the pitcher, Lefty Tyler, waved for him to move back. Flack stayed where he was, and Ruth hit a two run triple over his head.

Major League Baseball did not investigate the 1918 World Series, as they claimed that gambling was removed from the game following the banishment of the eight players from the White Sox. However,  one former member of that team, Phil Douglas, was banned from baseball for 'treachery,' as he was reported as saying that another team in the pennant race pay him to leave and 'go fishing'. Douglas faced one batter in the 1918 World Series, and committed an error on a comebacker, throwing the ball far over the first baseman's head.

Perhaps the 'curse' on the Cubs is not the result of a goat. Perhaps it is karma striking back for the forgotten misdeeds of the Cubs players over nine decades ago.

2011 Preview - American League Central

For Part Two of the 2011 baseball preview, we look at the American League Central. Teams are listed in the order of their anticipated finish.

1. Chicago White Sox: Despite losing their closer in Bobby Jenks, the White Sox had a solid offseason. In signing Adam Dunn as a free agent to bolster an already solid lineup, they have increased their offensive firepower. Even with the loss of Jenks, the bullpen is still solid and deep. Matt Thornton is expected to take over as the closer, after an excellent 2010 where he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.005 WHiP, and 81 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. If he falters, Chris Sale, the first round draft pick in 2010, is ready to take over. After making his debut on August 6, he posted an ERA of 1.93, a 1.071 WHiP, and striking out 32 batters over 23.1 innings. The rotation, while it does not have a specific pitcher that can be pointed to as an 'ace', is filled with pitchers that would be a number two or number three starter on most any other team.

The biggest question mark with the White Sox is how Jake Peavy will return from his injury. He had surgery last summer to reattach his latissimus dormi muscle in his shoulder, which is a procedure that is quite rare in baseball. As of now, his velocity is down, but he is still pitching relatively effectively. However, if he goes down again, that is a major hole to fill.

By virtue of their depth and Ozzie Guillen's ability to somhow make the right moves, the White Sox are the team that should win a very competitive AL Central.

2. Minnesota Twins: The Twins got a major boost this offseason without needing to make a signing in the return of Joe Nathan. With his return to the bullpen, this gives the Twins three pitchers with significant closing experience in Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Like the White Sox, the Twins have a rotation without a specific ace, but all of their pitchers would slot as a number two or three on most other teams. The lineup, when healthy, is very good. Anchored by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, they scored the fifth most runs per game and had the fourth highest OPS in the American League, even with Morneau being out of the lineup after July 8th.

The Twins health is a major concern with Morneau recovering from a severe concussion and the Joe Mauer's tendancy to get hurt. Also, the defense in the outfield is horrible. With the spacious outfield at Target Field, the lack of range between Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel could hurt the Twins in 2011.

The Twins should battle with the White Sox for most of the 2011 season, but in the end, they will fall just short.

3. Detroit Tigers: The Detroit Tigers were quite active this offseason, acquiring Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit as free agents, and resigning Magglio Ordonez. The offense, which was already solid, has improved with these signings and Ordonez's return. Miguel Cabrera and Brendan Boesch will benefit from the improved lineup, as Cabrera will have more protection behind him. Boesch's production decreased when Ordonez got hurt, and he will benefit from having these veteran hitters around him in the lineup. Benoit fortifies a deep bullpen, along with a finally healthy Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde returning as closer.

The primary concern with the Tigers is their rotation. They have a legitimate number one starter in Justin Verlander; however, the rest of the rotation is a major concern. There are no guarantees that Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, or Brad Penny will pitch well. Scherzer did pitch much better after a mid season demotion to AAA last season, but he has yet to show any consistency at the major league level. Rounding out the rotation is Phil Coke, who the Tigers are hoping to convert to starting after he has spent the last three years as a reliever. They also have the spectre of Cabrera's DUI arrest hanging overhead. While i do not expect that to be a distraction, there is still the concern that Selig may suspend him or demand that he re-enters rehab, which would severely hurt the Tigers chances this year.

While the Tigers will be competitive, they simply do not have the rotation to keep up with the White Sox or the Twins. They would need to out slug their opponents to win the division, and they simply are not consistent enough to do so.

4. Cleveland Indians: When you are a team that will be lucky to win 70 games, the greatest strength of the team should not be the bullpen. However, in Cleveland, that is exactly where their strength lies. Chris Perez is a solid closer, and looks to be on his way to becoming one of the elite closers in the game. With him in the bullpen are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, both strong arms that could close if Perez falters. They have some good young players coming up, with Carlos Santana projected to become an elite catcher, and Lonnie Chisenhall expected to debut at third base for them sometime this season. Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera are the main building blocks in the major league lineup, and both are excellent players.

The rest of the lineup is filled with major holes that were not addressed in the offseason. The Indians only major pickup as a free agent was Austin Kearns, which is not a move that inspires much confidence. The Indians are hoping that Travis Hafner remains healthy, that Grady Sizemore is finally healthy, and that Matt LaPorta can show some of the talent that had him considered to be a top prospect, and the key to the C.C. Sabathia trade. Meanwhile, the rotation is littered with AAAA pitchers. Fausto Carmona is the defacto number one, and is the only member of the rotation that could be considered major league material.

The Indians are in for a very long season, and it may be a few years before they are able to seriously expect to contend.

5. Kansas City Royals: Let's be up front - the Royals are not about 2011. They plan on competing in 2012 and beyond.

With that out of the way, the Royals are difficult to forecast for 2011. They have a number of elite prospects on the verge of reaching the majors, several of which may be called up before the September roster expansion. The lineup on opening day will not look anything like the lineup sent on to the field in September. The Royals, being cognisant of having the best system in baseball, signed the free agents they acquired to one year deals, so as to not block any of the prospects for 2012. For the present, they have a great closer in Jaokim Soria, and what promises to be a solid bullpen, despite the likelihood that they will have three rookies playing key roles. Billy Butler continues to hit at a solid level, and while he needs to develop more power, he has essentially become the 2010's version of Mark Grace.

However, this team has absolutely no offense aside from Butler. Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera were brought in as free agents, but will probably be traded by the deadline if the Royals can get anything for them. The rotation has very little to show for it, but once again, this is by design. Zack Greinke, their ace, was traded this offseason to Milwaukee in a move that brought over their shortstop and center fielder for the next few years.  However, the Royals are placing their hopes on prospects, which is not always a formula for success. If these players flame out, the Royals are in serious trouble going forward.

The Royals have a great future, and should contend in 2012 and beyond. 2011 is more about giving some of the prospects major league experience than it is about attempting to win the Central.