Sunday, March 6, 2011

Overzealous sports bureaucrats - not just in America

In professional sports, the governing bodies that be seem to spend in extremely disproportionate time regulating uniform violations. The socks have to be a certain height. Cleats must be a certain color. Headbands must be worn a specific way. The suit that Mike Nolan wanted to wear on the sidelines while coaching the San Fransisco 49ers? That was against the rules, because it did not have a Reebok logo on it. Meanwhile, Bill Belichick could wear his grey hoodie and look like a homeless guy begging for spare change.

Now, FIFA, in their infinite wisdom, has decided to ban snoods, or neckwarmers. According to FIFA president Sepp Blatter, the neckwarmers are "dangerous - it can be like to hang somebody." As these items are not considered to be 'part of the uniform', this ban is effective immediately.

Yes, the neckwarmer is not a part of the uniform. But neither are sweatbands, wristbands or anything like that. Given that most of the 'offenders' are members of the Premier League, which happens to play it's games from August to May in England (so, predominately throughout the winter), why is it wrong for the players to want to be warm? Is it wrong for them to wear gloves as well?

Perhaps the problem with the snood is not the snood at all. Perhaps it is all the flopping and exaggerated acting in an attempt to draw penalties against other teams. Yes, someone could theoretically grab the snood and use it to take someone down, but how is that different than grabbing someone's hair or shirt when attempting the takedown? Maybe if soccer players could keep from dropping if someone so much as sneezes within twenty feet of them, then this would not be a problem.

Instead of banning something that is being used for comfort, FIFA should impose penalties for using the snood for takedowns. After all, how many people want to stand around in the snow wearing nothing more than shorts and a short sleeve shirt?

Saturday, March 5, 2011

The possible reason behind Chipper's decline

Come this time of year, if you play fantasy baseball, it is around the time when you begin to scout for your leagues. Statistics get crunched, trends are looked at, and a draft list begins to take place. If you happen to be in deep leagues, you look beyond the top 15 at each position, and look for players that may be able to have bounce back or unexpected seasons.

Looking over Chipper Jones' statistics over the past three years, there is a marked decline. Yes, Jones is still taking his walks, however his power has decreased dramatically and his batting average has suffered. Perhaps this is due to age (Jones is 39) and injury, but there may be more to it than that. In 2008, Jones hit .364, leading the National League, and slugged 22 homers. In 2009, that went down to .264 and 18 homers, despite 62 more plate appearances. Last season, in 381 plate appearances, he batted .265 with 10 homers.

Part of this may be due to bad luck. His batting average in balls in play has dropped from .383 in 2008 to .287 in 2009 and .281 in 2010. His career average on BABip is .315, so there is a significant difference there. Also, he has a lower than normal BABip over the past two seasons, as the median falls at .299.

However, there is a disturbing trend that may signify why his BABip is decreasing so rapidly. When he makes contact with an offspeed pitch or a breaking ball on the outside part of the plate, his batting average has fallen rapidly. Back in 2008, his batting average on such pitches .358. This fell to .274 in 2009, and down to an atrocious .136 in 2010.

Typically, when a batter is about to lose his abilities, he is no longer able to keep up with the fastball or maintain his batting eye. With Chipper, this is not the case. He can still hit the fastball, and he can still draw a walk. Yet, he no longer seems to be able to hit softer pitches on the outside half. It will be curious to see how he hits these pitches throughout the spring, and whether or not pitchers begin to throw him more offspeed pitches on the outer half.

Jones has had a great Hall of Fame worthy career. But his time is about up, and it's interesting in how the decline has been this atypical.

Friday, March 4, 2011

The Heat have no heart

Last night, the Miami Heat lost to the Orlando Magic by a score of 99 to 96. At first glance, the score does not appear to be that big of a deal - after all, they only lost by three points. However, the Magic were down by 24 points in the third quarter, then went on a 40-9 run over the next fifteen minutes to pull out the victory.

This season, there have been six occurrences where a team has lost after pulling out to a 22 or more point lead. Miami has two of those six. Also, the Heat have seen leads of 15 points evaporate to the Knicks, and barely hung on to a victory over the Magic last month despite a 23 point lead. They also had a 23 point lead over the Indiana Pacers a couple of weeks ago, which they managed to hang on to.

This is a sign for the Heat, and is a damning indictment for what was supposed to be a team that should breeze through the calender towards their anointment as champions. Despite having a great deal of talent in their 'Big Three' of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh, they lack the intangibles. They lack the killer instinct. They lack heart.

Looking at teams that the Heat may have to face in the playoffs, this promises to be magnified further. The Celtics of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce would never allow this to happen. Kobe and the Lakers would never allow this to happen. Even the Orlando Magic have proven that they will not back down, and can stand up to the paper champions.

The Heat are similar to the classic schoolyard bully. They can dominate the weaker opposition with ease, but cannot handle it when someone stands up to them. In retrospect, should anyone truly be surprised by this? The foundation of the team is a player who quit during the playoffs last season (James), someone who has never made it out of the first round and has not displayed any leadership qualities whatsoever (Bosh), and someone who is going along with what his pals want (Wade). Yes, Wade has won a championship, but it makes one wonder how much of that should be attributed to an angered Shaquille O'Neal at this point. Could it be that Shaq carried Wade to the title, as opposed to the other way around, regardless of what the statistics may have said?

Yes, the Heat will make it out of the first round, mainly because they will draw a team that won't stand up to them. But it would be shocking if they made it past round two, especially with fortitude they have displayed thus far.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Obscure League Leaders

Every so often, when researching statistics in baseball, one happens to come along a season or a player that makes you wonder exactly what happened at that time frame. While looking into various statistics on an outfielder named Gavvy Gravath who played from 1908 until 1920, I noticed that he had several seasons with an extremely high adjusted OPS+. In 1913, his adjusted OPS+ was 172. He then followed this season by producing seasons in 1914 and 1915 with an OPS+ of 161 and 171, respectively. As such, I got curious as to where these ranked as the highest over the course of a season.

For those that don't know, adjusted OPS+ is OPS adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played, but not for fielding position. An OPS+ of 100 is defined to be the league average. An OPS+ of 150 or more is excellent and 125 very good, while an OPS+ of 75 or below is poor. OPS is determined by adding on base percentage and slugging percentage. As such, in the sabermetric community, it is regarded as an extremely useful tool to determine the value of a hitter.

When looking over the leaders in OPS+ for a season, the top three marks are held by Barry Bonds, which should not come as a surprise. In fact, most of the top ten is filled by Bonds, Babe Ruth (five through seven) and Ted Williams (eight and nine). However, in fourth place, is a player by the name of Fred Dunlap, who in 1884 posted an OPS+ of 258. This record actually stood until 2001, when Bonds passed it with a mark of 259. Here is a link to the list from baseballreference.com: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_plus_season.shtml

Dunlap, nicknamed 'Sure Shot' due to his strong throwing arm, was 25 in 1884. That season, for the Saint Louis Maroons of the shortly lived Union Association, he managed to hit .412 with a .448 OBP. He led the league in hitting, OBP, slugging (.621), home runs (13), hits (185), and runs (160). These statistics were compiled over 101 games, in an era when the mounds stood fifty feet from home plate and an overhand throwing motion was considered legal for the first time. Still, this was nominally a part of the dead ball era, so these statistics were extremely impressive, especially for a second baseman.

With a sport such as baseball, where the history of the game is as much of the present and future than with any other sport, it can be quite enlightening to go through and look through some of the season leader lists. Prior to Bonds constant intentional walks and power surge, it seemed quite unlikely that this record would have been broken, yet no one realized that it existed. For all those that state that DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak is unapproachable or that there will never be another .400 hitter, there's no guarantee. It did take 118 years for someone to pass Fred Dunlap after all.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Best sign yet for football in 2011

In a ruling that signaled a major blow to the NFL, US District Judge David Doty agreed with the NFLPA in regards to the NFL receiving $4billion in television revenue, regardless of whether or not football was played this upcoming season. In his decision, Doty stated that the NFL violated it's agreement with the NFLPA, stating that "The record shows that the NFL undertook contract renegotiations to advance its own interests and harm the interests of the players."

By having the television contracts set up in such a way where the NFL, and the various teams, would be paid whether or not a football game was played, the owners guaranteed that a lockout would happen, especially when they had an out clause in the previous collective bargaining agreement. After all, why would someone pay the players to perform when they can just shut the gates and turn a profit?

Lost in all of this is that the players WANT to be playing football in 2011. The biggest issues are that the owners want a bigger piece of the revenue pie, and they want 18 games so that they can 'give the fans what the fans want'. However, amongst people that identify themselves as NFL fans, only 45% are even slightly in favor of the change, and a mere 18% strongly favor it. So, in other words, 82% of NFL fans don't want it, or are lukewarm at best to the concept.

Furthermore, expanding the NFL season to 18 games will further decrease the future health, and length of career, for the players. However, this does not seem to matter to a commissioner and a league that continually talks about 'player safety'. If they are so concerned with the future health of the players, why are they trying to expand the season under a flimsy excuse to disguise their profit motives? Why do they continue to promote and market DVDs of defenseless players getting blown up? Hypocrites.

Hopefully this ruling will force the hand of the NFL and the commissioner, so that there will be a season in 2011. With the NFL being at the apex of it's popularity, why risk a disruption over a few million dollars? It's short sighted, reckless, and hazardous to a sport that has become the most watched in the nation. Should a lockout actually occur, it will be interesting to see how the league recovers - if it does at all.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

The Nets are setting themselves up

When a team has been terrible for an extended period of time, things need to change. Typically, this involves firing a coaching staff and/or a front office. Very rarely does the change come from the ownership, in terms of a dramatic new vision and dynamic for a team that is an afterthought, if anything at all. And let's face it, the New Jersey Nets have been an afterthought since they randomly won the Eastern Conference in 2002 and 2003.

However, this mindset began to change with the introduction of Mikhail Prokhorov as the new owner of the Nets. From the beginning, he had a vision - he wanted to build a team around a couple of transcendent players, he wanted to move the team to Brooklyn so as to better market the Nets brand, and he wanted to set the Nets up as a global team.

In purchasing the Nets, Prokhorov also personally funded a loan for $700 million to build their new arena in Brooklyn. The remainder of the funding would be acquired through the banking system, making it where the taxpayers of Brooklyn did not have to be taxed any further for the construction of another owner's private playground.

Next, Prokhorov set about revamping the front office and coaching staff with his goals in mind. He named a new general manager in Billy King, who had been the general manager of the Philadelphia 76ers from 1998 until 2007, and a new head coach in Avery Johnson, who had been the Coach of the Year for the Dallas Maverics in 2006, and had reached the NBA Finals previously. With a staff set, the Nets could now focus on gaining a legitimate superstar to build around.

With their impending move to Brooklyn, their primary target became Carmelo Anthony, a native of New York who wanted to play in front of his hometown crowds. However, he had no interest in playing for the Nets, and wisely, the Nets moved on, trading for a top three point guard in Deron Williams. Coupled with a burgeoning star at the center position in Brook Lopez, the future for the Nets on the court looks bright indeed.

Yet, their future off the court may be even better. With Prokhorov, the Nets are looking to expend themselves internationally, to be the franchise that fans in Europe, Africa, and Asia follow. Already, they have played the Toronto Raptors in London this year. They have a basketball clinic scheduled for Russia during the next offseason, and already played exhibition games in China. Add this to the amount of foreign born players on the nets roster, a Russian language website and a television deal to broadcast Nets games in Russia, there is a solid foundation. Yes, the NBA can limit what teams can do in terms of international promotion, but the Nets are on their way.

Perhaps this vision can save a franchise from falling to the ranks of irrelevancy, which is where teams like the Pacers or the Grizzlies find themselves. By focusing on areas outside their present neighborhood and to keep from spending their entire advertising budget in a futile attempt to wrestle away the stray Knicks fan, the Nets can legitimately make something of themselves, and tap into a fanbase that has been waiting for someone to pay attention to them.

Well played thus far Prokhorov. Hopefully this will translate into success.

Monday, February 28, 2011

Cam Newton - Future Bust

A lot of hype is coming out of the NFL Scouting Combine about Cam Newton. Interestingly, Newton has managed to bring this buzz to levels that are polar opposites of one another, with analysts saying that the Panthers or the Bills would be insane to pass him up with their first picks (picks one and three, respectively). Meanwhile, other analysts who watched the same workouts and heard the same answers given to questions ask if Newton isn't Akili Smith version 2011. Potential franchise QB to Akili Smith? Why the difference in opinion?

Looking at his time at the combine, we need to begin with a quote he said in an interview with Peter King of Sports Illustrated. When asked himself about how he sees himself, Newton responded with "I see myself not only as a football player, but an entertainer and icon." Interesting choice of words there. Especially since Newton is already going to be highly scrutinized given the off field incidents with his father setting up a 'pay for play' with him during the recruiting process. Yes, Cam was cleared of any knowledge or improper behavior through the situation, but this still deserves to be watched. Patterns can develop from issues such as these.

Then Newton took the field to throw at the combine. One word can describe his performance - disaster. Granted, he was throwing to unfamiliar targets, but everyone else that threw had the same disadvantages. In the end, he finished by completing only 11 of his 21 throws. He was frequently overthrowing his receivers, with the ball sailing on the ten yard out patterns, the fifteen yard in patterns, and the fly patterns specifically. He did hit the turnarounds, but this still raises enough questions about his accuracy and ability to hit a receiver. This dramatically paled in comparison to his performance previously in San Diego when he had a scheduled media workout on his terms. He did show a great arm and a nice spiral in getting the ball through ten to fifteen mile per hour winds, but he made four passes the entire time. One can't really put a lot of stock in four passes, regardless of the conditions.

In the end, Cam Newton seems to be more about concepts such as 'talent', 'potential', and 'size' (6'6", 250 lbs) than he is about his abilities and skills. At this point, Newton seems to be a project, nothing more. Yet, some team will fall in love with his arm, and draft him much higher than he should go, sending him down the Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, and Art Schlichter. Throw in the possibility of off the field problems, and this quarterback prospect has more red flags than the Chinese government.

In the end, stay away from Cam Newton. Nothing good can come of this.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Card of the Week Part 6 - 2010 Prestige Aaron Hernandez



Above is the 2010 Panini Prestige Aaron Hernandez rookie card. This card was one of 104 rookie cards included in the base set (which included four cards not listed on the main checklist), and one of 26 different short prints. Panini has refused to announce a print run for the short prints in the set, or the odds to gettting one of the short prints in a box, so as to avoid placing an artifical cap on card values. Instead, they are relying on the secondary market and the principles of supply and demand to set prices.

Several of the rookies in the set have both a base card and a short printed draft variation. These include some of the bigger names in the 2010 draft, such as Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, and Ndamukong Suh. Also, Gerald McCoy has two cards, both of which are short printed.

For a first time football set for a company known mainly for producing stickers, this was an excellent debut. Included in the 104 rookie cards were players who started to get more playing time and hobby love throughout the year, such as Blair White and James Starks. The rookies themselves are listed in alphabetical order by first name, with the exception of cards 301 through 304, which were not listed on the checklist that came with the box.

The Hernandez card is a great example for this set for a number of reasons. Not only is it the first rookie card on the checklist, but it is also the first short print. The set has a nice, crisp design, and does an excellent job with getting head shots of the rookies. At approximately $90 per box, with a total of four games used and/or autographs, this was a great product.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

The NBA has a looming problem

In the wake of the Carmelo Anthony trade to the Knicks, a pattern has begun to develop. At this point, players have begun colluding amongst themselves, agreeing to play for a specific teams in order to build a few 'super teams'. Now, there is nothing illegal about this on the dies of the players, but if the owners were to get together in order to lower salaries, it would be a severe issue. Nothing quite like a double standard.

When did this all begin? In terms of athletes intentionally creating the 'super team' concept, it leads back to the Boston Celtics in the 2007-08 season, when Ray Allen and Paul Pierce pleaded with Kevin Garnett to join them in Boston. With the formation of the 'Big Three', the die had been cast.

Fast forward to this past off-season. LeBron, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh meet several times, and decide to partner up in Miami to create their own Super Team, only their version is a younger, more dynamic group with three players entering their prime. It doesn't matter that the Heat no longer have anything resembling a surrounding cast to support them, as there was no longer any room under the cap. They have their version of the Big Three scoring roughly 68.6% of the team's points. The fourth leading scorer? Udonis Haslem, who is out for a long time at 8.0 points per game. Behind him? We find Eddie House at 6.9 points per.

Now, the New York Knicks are joining the party. After picking up Amare Stoudemire through free agency, they picked up Carmelo Anthony, who forced the Denver Nuggets to trade him. So who is the third piece? None other than Chris Paul, who joined Carmelo and Amare in toasting to playing together in New York during Carmelo's wedding. Paul happens to be a free agent after next season, so don't expect him to sign an extension in New Orleans.

The NBA is rapidly becoming a collection of the haves against the have nots. Why play in a place like Toronto or Sacramento, when you can force that team to deal you to a team like Miami or New York? Why attempt to build something in an area that truly enjoys basketball, but happens to be in the middle of nowhere? After all, image is so much more important than the game, right?

This is something that David Stern needs to look at during the collective bargaining agreement. The league may become nothing more than six to eight teams loaded with superstars, while the rest of the teams either have to fold or play in obscurity. A hard salary cap would help to fix this issue. So would creating a franchise type tag in the NBA. But regardless of what they determine the answer to be, this needs to be fixed. And soon.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Perhaps this is part of the problem

Following the example of other athletes who spend money like water, or make it rain tens of thousands of dollars (I'm looking at you Pac-Man Jones), Bryant McKinnie managed to run up a $100,000 bar tab over the NBA All-Star weekend. This large sum was apparently spent on 15 bottles of champagne. This averages out to approximately $6666 per bottle. The champagne better contain liquid gold bullion for that money.

Keep in mind, the NFL is facing a potential lockout in the next few weeks. At that point in time, there won't be any paychecks forth coming. Whatever McKinnie has aside has now decreased by that $100,000. Judging by his lack of control with the ol' wallet, I'm guessing that amount isn't really a whole lot.

If he has any financial advisers, they will hopefully yank him aside and let him know that dropping money like that at this time is not a good idea. A lack of forethought on financial matters such as this works as an example as to how so many athletes end up broke within five years of leaving whatever league they're playing in. Just look at Antoine Walker, who is playing in the NBA Development League because he needs the money. He's broke after making over $100 million in his NBA career. In fact, fellow player Nazr Mohammed paid half of the fee for his bankruptcy attorneys. Then again, Mohammed and Walker have a history together, having been robbed together in January 2000 outside a Chicago restaurant, so these decisions seem to run together.

This mindset is why so many athletes struggle with their finances after their playing careers. I realize that they regard college as essentially a minor league for whatever sport they play, but maybe they should pay attention in class for once. It would save them in the long run.