2011 Preview - American League Central

For Part Two of the 2011 baseball preview, we look at the American League Central. Teams are listed in the order of their anticipated finish.

1. Chicago White Sox: Despite losing their closer in Bobby Jenks, the White Sox had a solid offseason. In signing Adam Dunn as a free agent to bolster an already solid lineup, they have increased their offensive firepower. Even with the loss of Jenks, the bullpen is still solid and deep. Matt Thornton is expected to take over as the closer, after an excellent 2010 where he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.005 WHiP, and 81 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. If he falters, Chris Sale, the first round draft pick in 2010, is ready to take over. After making his debut on August 6, he posted an ERA of 1.93, a 1.071 WHiP, and striking out 32 batters over 23.1 innings. The rotation, while it does not have a specific pitcher that can be pointed to as an 'ace', is filled with pitchers that would be a number two or number three starter on most any other team.

The biggest question mark with the White Sox is how Jake Peavy will return from his injury. He had surgery last summer to reattach his latissimus dormi muscle in his shoulder, which is a procedure that is quite rare in baseball. As of now, his velocity is down, but he is still pitching relatively effectively. However, if he goes down again, that is a major hole to fill.

By virtue of their depth and Ozzie Guillen's ability to somhow make the right moves, the White Sox are the team that should win a very competitive AL Central.

2. Minnesota Twins: The Twins got a major boost this offseason without needing to make a signing in the return of Joe Nathan. With his return to the bullpen, this gives the Twins three pitchers with significant closing experience in Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Like the White Sox, the Twins have a rotation without a specific ace, but all of their pitchers would slot as a number two or three on most other teams. The lineup, when healthy, is very good. Anchored by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, they scored the fifth most runs per game and had the fourth highest OPS in the American League, even with Morneau being out of the lineup after July 8th.

The Twins health is a major concern with Morneau recovering from a severe concussion and the Joe Mauer's tendancy to get hurt. Also, the defense in the outfield is horrible. With the spacious outfield at Target Field, the lack of range between Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel could hurt the Twins in 2011.

The Twins should battle with the White Sox for most of the 2011 season, but in the end, they will fall just short.

3. Detroit Tigers: The Detroit Tigers were quite active this offseason, acquiring Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit as free agents, and resigning Magglio Ordonez. The offense, which was already solid, has improved with these signings and Ordonez's return. Miguel Cabrera and Brendan Boesch will benefit from the improved lineup, as Cabrera will have more protection behind him. Boesch's production decreased when Ordonez got hurt, and he will benefit from having these veteran hitters around him in the lineup. Benoit fortifies a deep bullpen, along with a finally healthy Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde returning as closer.

The primary concern with the Tigers is their rotation. They have a legitimate number one starter in Justin Verlander; however, the rest of the rotation is a major concern. There are no guarantees that Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, or Brad Penny will pitch well. Scherzer did pitch much better after a mid season demotion to AAA last season, but he has yet to show any consistency at the major league level. Rounding out the rotation is Phil Coke, who the Tigers are hoping to convert to starting after he has spent the last three years as a reliever. They also have the spectre of Cabrera's DUI arrest hanging overhead. While i do not expect that to be a distraction, there is still the concern that Selig may suspend him or demand that he re-enters rehab, which would severely hurt the Tigers chances this year.

While the Tigers will be competitive, they simply do not have the rotation to keep up with the White Sox or the Twins. They would need to out slug their opponents to win the division, and they simply are not consistent enough to do so.

4. Cleveland Indians: When you are a team that will be lucky to win 70 games, the greatest strength of the team should not be the bullpen. However, in Cleveland, that is exactly where their strength lies. Chris Perez is a solid closer, and looks to be on his way to becoming one of the elite closers in the game. With him in the bullpen are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, both strong arms that could close if Perez falters. They have some good young players coming up, with Carlos Santana projected to become an elite catcher, and Lonnie Chisenhall expected to debut at third base for them sometime this season. Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera are the main building blocks in the major league lineup, and both are excellent players.

The rest of the lineup is filled with major holes that were not addressed in the offseason. The Indians only major pickup as a free agent was Austin Kearns, which is not a move that inspires much confidence. The Indians are hoping that Travis Hafner remains healthy, that Grady Sizemore is finally healthy, and that Matt LaPorta can show some of the talent that had him considered to be a top prospect, and the key to the C.C. Sabathia trade. Meanwhile, the rotation is littered with AAAA pitchers. Fausto Carmona is the defacto number one, and is the only member of the rotation that could be considered major league material.

The Indians are in for a very long season, and it may be a few years before they are able to seriously expect to contend.

5. Kansas City Royals: Let's be up front - the Royals are not about 2011. They plan on competing in 2012 and beyond.

With that out of the way, the Royals are difficult to forecast for 2011. They have a number of elite prospects on the verge of reaching the majors, several of which may be called up before the September roster expansion. The lineup on opening day will not look anything like the lineup sent on to the field in September. The Royals, being cognisant of having the best system in baseball, signed the free agents they acquired to one year deals, so as to not block any of the prospects for 2012. For the present, they have a great closer in Jaokim Soria, and what promises to be a solid bullpen, despite the likelihood that they will have three rookies playing key roles. Billy Butler continues to hit at a solid level, and while he needs to develop more power, he has essentially become the 2010's version of Mark Grace.

However, this team has absolutely no offense aside from Butler. Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera were brought in as free agents, but will probably be traded by the deadline if the Royals can get anything for them. The rotation has very little to show for it, but once again, this is by design. Zack Greinke, their ace, was traded this offseason to Milwaukee in a move that brought over their shortstop and center fielder for the next few years.  However, the Royals are placing their hopes on prospects, which is not always a formula for success. If these players flame out, the Royals are in serious trouble going forward.

The Royals have a great future, and should contend in 2012 and beyond. 2011 is more about giving some of the prospects major league experience than it is about attempting to win the Central.