This is the first part of what is going to be a six part 2011 baseball preview. For Part One, the American League East is reviewed. The teams are listed in the order that I anticipate them finishing in.
1. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox easily had the best offseason of any team in baseball. Signing Carl Crawford as a free agent and trading for Adrian Gonzalez dramatically improves a lineup that was already formidable in it's own right. The rotation features four starters that could be the number one on any number of teams in Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey. The bench is filled with solid depth players and veterans. This is a team with very few weaknesses, and is the best team on paper.
There are several questions on the Sox, but they are relatively minor. First is the health on their team. Youkilis, Pedroia, and Ellsbury all missed significant time last year. Gonzalez is coming off of shoulder surgery. By all indications, they are all healthy and ready to go. Also, one must ask where Johnathon Papelbon's head is at. For him, he had an off year last year, and the Sox brought in Bobby Jenks in the event that he falters once again.
Nonetheless, this is the team that will win the AL East, and is likely to be the American League representative in the World Series.
2. Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays managed to win 85 games last season despite Aaron Hill and Adam Lind hitting .205 and .237 respectively. While Jose Bautista's power is expected to decrease this season after hitting 54 home runs last year, it is worth noting that he hit 10 in September of 2009 after an adjustment to his batting stance. Even with a dropoff from Bautista, improved production from Lind and Hill should more than make up for the difference.
Despite trading Shaun Marcum to the Brewers, the Blue Jays still have a deep rotation. Brendan Morrow, Ricky Romero, and Brett Cecil all did a solid job last year. Jesse Litsch is being added to the mix, as he spent most of last year recovering from injuries. The fifth spot int he rotation is a battle between prospect Kyle Drabek and Marc Rzepczynski. The bullpen has been improved with the addition of Frank Francisco as their presumed closer.
The Blue Jays are a team with a good direction and a solid future. 2012 is the more likely year to expect them to begin to contend for the postseason, but this team has the potential to accelerate that curve.
3. New York Yankees: Despite their best efforts on the free agent front, the Yankees found themselves in an unusual situation - perusing the bargain bin looking for potential bargains. After missing out on Cliff Lee, they signed a plethora of low risk free agent pitchers in Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia. Russell Martin was signed to take over as the primary catcher from Jorge Posada. Rafeal Soriano was brought in to solidify the bullpen and as insurance in the even that the ageless Mariano Rivera falters. However, the Soriano signing was curious given the contract (3 years for $15 million) and that General Manager Brian Cashman went out of his way to remove himself from that signing.
The core of the Yankees in Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, and Rivera are getting old. Posada and A-Rod have become injury risks, and Posada has essentially become the Yankees full time DH at this stage of his career. The rotation behind C.C. Sabathia is littered with question marks and unproven talent. A.J. Burnett can be napalm at any given moment. Phil Hughes had a solid year in 2010, but is he able to build off of that? The battle for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation is uninspiring at best, with Colon, Garcia, Ivan Nova, and Sergio Mitre battling to make the roster. Not exactly the team that one pictures the Yankees having.
Age and a lack of organizational depth that is ready to perform at the major league level are due to catch up to the Yankees. 2011 should be the first sign of slippage.
4. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays got absolutely hammered in this offseason. They lost their starting first baseman in Carlos Pena, their closer in Rafael Soriano, and their starting left fielder in Carl Crawford through free agency. Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett were traded away for increased financial flexibility. This is a team that is definitely in rebuilding mode, and are planning on contending in another couple of seasons.
However, the Rays possess one of the best managers in baseball in Joe Maddon, a deep minor league system filled with prospects, and a smart front office. They have a plan, and they know how to execute it to perfection. It may not always be pretty, and there will be cycles where the Rays will not be competitive, but they will cycle back around. Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, and Jake McGee are all expected to contribute at the major league level this season. Behind them are Hak-Ju Lee, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, and Josh Sale. The Rays, like Arnold in the Terminator, will be back.
Look for the Rays to return to prominence in 2013, but the future is bright down in Tampa.
5. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles are a very perplexing franchise. They are easily the worst team in a ridiculously difficult division, yet every year they seem to delude themselves into believe that they are a competitive ballclub. They make signings and trades as though they expect to compete every year, and refuse to recognize that they are, in fact, awful. The offseason signings of Vlad Guerrero and Derrek Lee, along with the trade for Mark Reynolds, further prove that this organization does not have anything resembling a long term plan.
On the positive side, the Orioles have some solid arms coming up. Brian Matusz pitched well during the second half of last year. Chris Tillman should contribute this season. Zack Britton and Dan Klein are on the way to the major leagues, and may be called up in September. Manny Machado is an elite prospect at shortstop. However, behind them, there is not a lot to get excited about. Buck Showalter has a lot of experience in getting young teams ready to compete, but he has had a lot more to work with than what he has been given in Baltimore.
The Orioles desperate need to recognize their situation and go full bore into rebuilding mode. Until they do so, this team is destined to take up permanent residence in the American League East basement.
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