Is Josh Beckett Done?

Last night, in his first start of the season, Josh Beckett gave up five hits and four walks over five innings against the Cleveland Indians. beckett also struck out four Indians hitters. However, over his five innings of work, he threw 106 pitches, for an average of 21.2 per inning.

The first time through the lineup, he managed to get eight of the first nine batters out, relying more on a changeup than he ever had before. After the first time facing him, the Indians adjusted, and Beckett was only able to get eight of the next fifteen batters out. The Indians stayed patient, and waited for Beckett to make mistakes.

Normally, such a difference in approach could be explained by a pitcher trying to keep batters off balance. Yet, there are several underlying issues here. First, Beckett has never really thrown a changeup much at all previously, yet alone at a rate of roughly 25% of his pitches. Second, Beckett's fastball was averaging approximately 91 MPH, down 5 MPH from where it had been previously. Third, he was awful last season and during spring training. And fourth, he is coming back from a back injury.

Watching him last night, he appeared to be someone rehabbing a shoulder or an arm injury. Considering that no one was truly positive if Beckett really had a back injury last year, it is possible that the arm was really the issue. If that is the case, Beckett's mysterious loss of velocity would be easier to explain. In fact, his start last night looked extremely similar to when Pedro martinez came back from his arm injury. Pedro got shelled in his first start, yet managed to finish the year with a 20-4  record with a 2.26 ERA. Incidentally, both had this happen during the season they both turned 30.

The difference is that Pedro had the mental capacity to know how to be effective without throwing fastballs past everyone else. He was still as confident as ever, daring the opposition to beat him. Beckett, however, looked timid, and was trying to hit corners. This is not what he has done to be successful before, and he needs to go back to daring the opposition to beat him. He needs to channel his inner Pedro.

If Beckett is not able to adapt, then he may very well be finished as a decent starter in baseball. Perhaps he could still be effective in a relief role, but who pays $17million per year to a set up pitcher? Not even the Yankees do that. Beckett needs to adjust how he pitches, or hope that the loss in velocity was an aberrition. Otherwise, his career may be just about over.