Monday, March 21, 2011

What Is Wrong With The Bruins?

The Boston Bruins, once considered a team destined to reach the Eastern Conference Finals at worst, now face the very real possibility of an early playoff exit. Two weeks ago, they were considered to be a lock to win their division, now they are struggling to hold off the surging Montreal Canadiens. Boston finds themselves one point ahead of Montreal for the third seed int he playoffs, and only six points ahead of a New York Rangers team that has played well as of late, winning four in a row.

Watching the Bruins, they are playing without any fire or energy. They are passive on defense, and not playing the physical brand of hockey they need to in order to win. This is a team that thrives on physicality, yet they have moved away from their game. Why is this?

The Bruins have gone 1-3-3 in their last seven games. Since the game against Montreal where Max Pacioretty suffered the severe concussion and fractured vertebra, they have gone 1-2-2. They played particularly uninspired hockey in their most recent game, a 5-2 loss to the lowly Toronto Maple Leafs. Montreal, in the meantime, has gone 4-2-0 to gain four points on Boston.

Since Chara's hit, the Bruins have been lethargic, playing as though they are still in a daze from the severity of what transpired. The only signs of fire were when Tuukka Rask got in the face of a defenseman for being in his way when he allowed Toronto's fifth goal. Even the fight between Dion Phaneuf and Nathan Horton seemed to be an exercise in futility, as Horton needed to leave the game to get stitches from the beating Phaneuf put on him.

Perhaps instead of sending a message to Montreal that the Bruins were back to playing tough hockey, Chara's hit ended up causing the Bruins to go into a shell. Meanwhile, that hit has galvanized the Canadiens, as they are rallying around their fallen teammate and playing inspired hockey.

This is the time where the lack of leadership on Boston is truly evident. They do not have a strong locker room presence, no one that will stand up and demand that they snap out of their doldrums and go back to playing the type of hockey they must play to compete. Claude Julien is not the type of coach that will demand that they play better, and will continue to find silver linings amongst the clouds. Given Julien's inability to get past the second round, and the Bruins utter collapse against the Flyers last postseason, maybe firing him would be the wake up call that this team needs.

The Bruins need to snap out of it, or a season that held so much promise as recently as two weeks ago will end in yet another disappointing playoff performance.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

It is that time of year again, where baseball is right around the corner. As such, it is also the time of year where fantasy leagues are holding their drafts. Anyone can draft Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez, but leagues are often won in the later rounds by finding sleepers that produce. Here are some sleeper picks by position (average draft position according to ESPN fantasy drafts).

Catcher: Mike Napoli, average draft position: 179. Despite Mike Scioscia's outright reluctance to play Napoli everyday, he managed to hit 20 or more home runs for each of the last three seasons. Now, he finds himself in Texas, and the launching pad that is Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Last season, Napoli's isolated power was .230, which not only led all catchers, but was on par with players such as Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth. Napoli also has first base eligibility, which is a bonus in fantasy. While his batting average will remain around .250, his power is reason enough to wait when the top five catchers are off the board.

First Base: Freddie Freeman, average draft position: 214. Freeman joins Jason Heyward as a part of the next wave of Braves prospects that are expected to lead them to the playoffs. Despite being only 20 years old last year, Freeman hit .319/.378/.521 in AAA. This year, he has been handed the starting first baseman job out of spring training. Again, the average may be a tad bit low since he is only 21 going into this year, but Freeman will provide solid home run and RBI totals in that lineup. For a 21st round selection, a batting line of .270/25/70 is a fairly solid proposition.

Second Base: Brad Emaus, average draft position: none. This pick is not for the faint of heart, as Emaus is not guaranteed a starting job, or to even open the season with the Mets. However, he does have several things working in his favor. First, as a Rule V draftee, the Mets must keep him on the roster, or offer him back to the Toronto Blue Jays. Second, Luis Castillo was released, opening the position. Emaus, over the course of his minor league career, has displayed the ability to get double digit home runs and stolen bases, while hitting in the .280 to .290 range and walking more than he strikes out. For the last pick of a draft, there is a lot more upside here than what would typically be available.

Third Base: David Freese, average draft position: 221. Freese is sliding in drafts due to his injury history, as he has had ankle surgery in each of the past two seasons. While he has yet to really display a lot of power in the majors, he has provided a solid batting average and the ability to get on base. Over the course of his minor league career, he did manage to hit 68 home runs in 1456 at bats, for an average of one home run every 21.4 time to the plate. Should Freese see 400 at bats this year, that would project to 19 home runs. As a 22nd round draft choice, he could be a find as a three or four category provider.

Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, average draft position: 202. At first glance, Escobar's stat line last year was thoroughly unimpressive, as he hit .235 and only stole 10 bases. However, his BABip was only .266, which is extremely low. He also was stuck in the eighth spot in the batting order for the Brewers, where he did not steal as much due to hitting in front of the pitcher. With the trade to Kansas City, expect Escobar to run more, as they try to manufacture runs. Over the course of his minor league career, he stole 176 bases with a .293 batting average. Thirty steals and a .270 batting average and a decent run total is a fair expectation, and is quite good from a shortstop.

Outfield: Nate McLouth, average draft position: 226. McLouth is another bounce back candidate. 2010 was a wasted season for him, as he hit bad enough to be demoted to AAA. However, when he was given another opportunity in September, he responded by hitting at a respectable .263/.358/.509 with three home runs and three stolen bases over his final 23 games. Also, it is worth noting that prior to last season's disaster, he had hit 46 home runs and had 42 stolen bases over the previous two seasons. He is still only going to be 29 this season, so there is not yet any reason to think that he has lost his ability to hit. Given how he finished last season, the possibility of McLouth returning to 20 home run/20 stolen base form cannot be dismissed. Potentially finding that type of talent in the 22nd round makes him worth the investment.

Starting Pitcher: Jhoulys Chacin, average draft position: 175. Yes, a Colorado Rockies pitcher. Chacin went 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA, a 1.14 WHip, and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings over his last eight starts. Overall for the season, Chacin struck out 9.04 batters per nine, while providing an ERA of 3.28. Proving that pitching in Colorado is not a factor, he had a 3.98 ERA at Coors Field. Chacin opens the season with a spot in the rotation locked up, and is capable of providing numbers similar to pitchers being drafted five rounds before him. Ignore the fact that he pitches for the Rockies, and look at what Chacin is - a four category provider at starting pitching that is being drafted much later than he should be.

Relief Pitcher: Jake McGee, average draft position: 219. Every year, people draft relief pitchers too early, falling into the trap that they must grab saves. Yet, every year, there are pitchers that no one had even thought to draft that end up as closers. After all, how many people had John Axford at the start of 2010? McGee, who was a top starting pitching prospect for Tampa prior to injuring his elbow in 2008, appears to be that person this year. At AAA, he struck out 27 batters against three walks in 17.1 innings. In his five inning major league debut, he struck out six while only allowing two hits. He has a mid-90's fastball and a very good slider, which is all that one needs as a closer. Add in the fact that McGee is left handed, and that Kyle Farnsworth has the most closing experience on the Tampa Bay Rays roster, and McGee appears destined for 30+ saves.

Even if none of these players pan out when drafted, there is really no risk. By taking sleepers as opposed to the safe pick, the chance for reward is far greater. After all, everyone knows what Mark Buehrle will put up. But if one can draft someone that is equal to a Wandy Rodriguez instead, then that makes it worth the gamble. Players like Buehrle will be available on the waiver wire if the sleepers don't pan out.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

2011 Preview - National League West

This is the sixth and final installment of the six part 2011 baseball preview. The teams are ranked in the order of their expected finish.

1. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies managed to hang around in the playoff picture, going 83-79 in 2010 despite losing Troy Tulowitzki for roughly one third of the season. This bodes well for 2011. The Rockies feature a very balanced lineup with legitimate power in Tulo and Carlos Gonzalez, speed in Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith, and a professional hitter in Todd Helton. The bullpen, headed by Huston Street, Rafael Betancourt, and Matt Lindstrom, is solid. The top of the rotation features Ubaldo Jimenez, who had a great season last year, and the underrated Jorge De La Rosa. Jhoulys Chacin showed flashes last season of being a solid major league pitcher, ending with a 3.40 ERA, which is even more impressive since more than half of his starts were in Coors Field.

The biggest concern with the Rockies is their ability to stay healthy. Tulo, Helton, Street, Aaron Cook, and Ian Stewart all missed time last year due to injuries. Stewart is already injured in spring training, and may not be ready for the start of the season. The back of the rotation is also a concern with Cook and Jason Hammel. Neither pitched particularly well last year (Cook had a 5.08 ERA in 23 games last year, Hammel had a 4.81 ERA in 30 games), and will need to show improvement in 2011.

The Rockies are set to leapfrog the Giants and the Padres to capture the National League West. Barring injuries, the Rockies return to the postseason this year.

2. San Fransisco Giants: The 2010 Giants proved that a great rotation and playing smart baseball can lead a team to a World Series Championship. Ace Tim Lincecum heads the staff, followed by the improving Johnathon Sanchez, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner. Barry Zito rounds out the staff as the fifth starter. The bullpen is also very deep, with Brain Wilson, and his beard, slamming the door in the ninth inning. Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo provide a solid bridge to the closer.

With the Giants, their biggest questions involve their lineup. Last season, they only scored 697 runs, which was 17th in baseball, and 8th in the National League. This came on a career year from Aubrey Huff, who should regress. Cody Ross was a revelation in the postseason, but he was released outright by the Marlins in August. Can he continue to hit like he did in October? Miguel Tejada is expected to be the everyday shortstop at age 37, despite the fact that his lack of range and mobility dictates he should be playing third base, if anywhere on the playing field at all. Pablo Sandoval had a very bad season last year - can he rebound? These may be the keys to the Giants being able to compete for the division or the wild card.

While the Giants will have some offensive regression, there should be enough players that improve to keep them in the postseason hunt. Expect the Giants to be the NL Wild Card, based on their pitching staff.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are an enigma. On paper, they appear to be a playoff team and the favorite in the West. However, their end results never equate to the level of talent on the roster. Is it that these players are not as good as they are perceived? Was it that Joe Torre just could not tap into the potential of these players and Don Mattingly will? Is Torre overrated? Prior to joining the Yankees and being handed the talent he had in New York, Torre only made the playoffs once. Add the messy divorce between the McCourts, and the Dodgers have the potential to further regress.

On the plus side, the Dodgers have a very solid rotation. Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Ted Lilly, and Hiroki Kuroda make a good starting four. Johnathon Broxton returns as the closer despite a rough second half of the season in 2010. Hong-Chih Kuo, Kenley Jansen, and Matt Guerrier lead a solid bullpen, and would be good options if Broxton falters again. The lineup is good, with Matt Kemp, Andre Either, and James Loney as the anchors. A healthy Rafael Furcal returns as the catalyst at the top of the order.

This season is going to be interesting in DodgerLand, as Don Mattingly inherits a messy situation. There is a lot of talent here, but it just doesn't translate to success.

4. San Diego Padres: The Padres greatest strengths going into this season are their bullpen and top two starters. Mat Latos and Clayton Richard performed at an excellent level last season, although Latos did wear down in September. The bullpen has an elite closer in Heath Bell, and two potential closers of the future in Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams. Defensively, this is also a very solid ballclub, finishing second in the National League in 2010 with a .988 fielding percentage.

The remainder of the rotation is questionable at best. Tim Stauffer, Wade LeBlanc, and Aaron Harang round out the rotation, and are all question marks. Harang has had two terrible seasons in a row. Stauffer is converting from the bullpen to the rotation, and may take some time to adjust. LeBlanc puts a lot of people on base, but managed to escape most of those situations last year with minimal damage. The lineup also has major problems. They ranked 12th in the National League in runs scored last year, even with Adrian Gonzalez in the lineup. With his trade, the Padres are now leaning heavily on Ryan Ludwick, Brad Hawpe, and Chase Headley to make up the difference. The Padres did improve their team speed with acquiring Cameron Maybin and Jason Bartlett, so expect them to be more aggressive on the basepaths in an effort to manufacture runs.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks are all about potential. Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Justin Upton and Juan Miranda all have the possibility of being star players on offense. In the pitching staff, Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy could turn out to be top of the rotation starters. The top of the lineup has great speed with Upton, Drew, and Young. The rest of the rotation of Joe Saunders, Armando Galarraga, and Zach Duke is solid.

The key on offense is their ability to put the bat on the ball. Trading Mark Reynolds and his 211 strikeouts while implementing a philosophy of being selective will help to lower the 1529 strikeouts that the Diamondbacks had as a team last year, which was 11% higher than the second place team. This will help to improve a team that only managed a .250 batting average in 2010, leading to more runs and a better chance at being competitive.

The Diamondbacks are heading in the right direction. While they are not quite there, expect them to contend in 2012 or 2013.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Why Does Everyone Hate Duke?

Seemingly every day in sports news, there are new allegations of recruiting violations at major colleges. Athletes are continually getting into trouble, be it for sexual assault, drugs, alcohol, or even murder. More and more, we wonder where all the coaches that do things the right way went to. We wonder where the athletes that we feel comfortable for our children to look up to are. We wonder if major college sports schools care about their athlete's education more than to just pay it lip service. Turns out that there is still such a place - Duke University.

Since arriving at Duke in 1980, coach Mike Krzyzewski has built a program based on getting solid athletes that are actually good citizens. Duke will not have the thugs, the trouble makers, or the players that refuse to realize that it is about team. The Army, where he played college basketball, has an award named in his honor - the "Coach K Teaching Character Through Sports" award - given each spring to cadets and coaches who display superior ethics and character through sports. For the most part, his athletes finish their educations. He brings back former players as coaches, helping them out to find jobs.

Yet, Coach K and the Duke basketball program are almost universally despised. Why is this? Is it due to the continual run of NCAA tournament appearances, missing the tournament once since the 1983-84 season? Is it due to the perception that Krzyzewski is a smug, arrogant individual? Is it because they seem to produce the exact same players year in and year out? Shouldn't the fact that they manage to win while upholding ethics and getting actually good citizens matter?

Duke is everything we want a program to be. So why the hatred for this program?

2011 Preview - National League Central

This is the fifth installment of the six part 2011 baseball preview. Today features the National League Central. Teams are listed in the order of their expected finish.

1. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers are all in on the 2011 season. Given that this is Prince Fielder's last year under Milwaukee control before free agency, the Brewers went out and strip mined the farm system in an attempt to compete this year. Trades for Zack Greinke and Sahun Marcum dramatically improved the rotation. Yovani Gallardo now becomes the number three pitcher. Randy Wolf is a better fit as the fourth starter, as opposed to the number two. Rounding out the rotation is Chris Narveson, who pitched well last year. The offense is solid, anchored by Fielder, Ryan Braun, and the solid Casey McGehee.

Injuries are a concern with the Brewers. Already, Greinke is going to miss some time due to a rib injury, and Marcum is dealing with shoulder tightness. If these injuries cause either pitcher to miss significant time, the Brewers are in trouble. The defense is also a concern. Alcides Escobar, a solid fielding shortstop, was moved in the Greinke trade, and replaced with Yuniesky Betancourt, who is a defensive black hole.

As long as the Brewers enjoy a reasonably healthy season, they should be the favorite to win a fairly strong NL Central.

2. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs offseason may have attracted more attention in the Central had the Brewers not made as many moves. By trading for Matt Garza, they improved their rotation. The signings of Carlos Pena and Kerry Wood improve their defense and bullpen respectively. Pena is a Gold Glove caliber first baseman, and is adept at gathering potentially errant throws. This will help the entire infield, and Starlin Castro in prticular. Wood returned tot he Cubs to set up Carlos Marmol, and as insurance in case Marmol struggles.

The key for the Cubs may be Carlos Zambrano. Last season, prior to the All-Star break, he was 3-6 with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.69 WHiP. After the break, he went 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA and a 1.27 WHiP. Which Zambrano will the Cubs get in 2011? Starlin Castro also has to take the next step in his development. Last year, he hit .300 with 10 stolen bases as a rookie. He was also caught 8 times. Improvement as a base stealer and proving that he can continue to provide a .300 average will be key.

The Cubs are a much better team that most people realize. Should Milwaukee falter, look for them to capitalize and take the NL Central.

3. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are due to regress this season. Last year, Joey Votto and Scott Rolen had excellent seasons to help power the Reds to the playoffs. Votto won the MVP, and should continue to hit at the same level, however Rolen is a concern. At age 35, he hit 20 home runs for the first time since 2006. He also struck out in 15.3% of his at bats, his highest total since 2004. Should the power numbers return to where they have been, and the strikeout rate continues to rise, the Reds suddenly find themselves with a hole in their lineup.

While the Brewers and the Cubs improved, the Reds didn't. They return virtually the same roster from 2010 as they attempt to repeat. However, the Reds do boast a good rotation, headed by Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. The bullpen is solid, with veteran Francisco Cordero closing, and flame throwing Aroldis Chapman as their 8th inning pitcher.

The Reds have a good young team, and will be competitive for a few years. They just don't have enough to win the division in 2011 with the improvements made by the other teams.

4. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are in trouble. Already, Adam Wainwright has been lost for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Chris Carpenter has been dealing with several minor injuries during Spring Training, and given his history, cannot be counted on to pitch the entire season. The spectre of Albert Pujols' impending free agency hangs over this team as well. Colby Rasmus, a very good young player, has somehow incurred the wrath of Tony LaRussa, and was rumored to be on the trading block all offseason.

Despite this, the strength of the Cardinals is their lineup. Pujols is the best player in baseball, and is surrounded by good players in Rasmus, Matt Holliday, and the recently acquired Lance Berkman. Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto improve their middle infield, providing better defense and offense than Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan.

This is going to be an interesting year for the Cardinals, and may implode rapidly. The offense may be enough to keep them in contention for most of the year, but they simply do not have the pitching to keep up.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates are an improving team with several exciting young players ready to make an impact at the major league level. Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, and Andrew McCutchen provide a great core of talent that should be together for years. James McDonald looks like a potential number one starter in the making. The bullpen of All-Star Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan is solid. The Pirates are a much better team than they were in 2010.

However, the Pirates are still a couple of years away. The major league roster does not yet have enough talent to compete with the upper echelon of teams in the Central. There is plenty of talent coming up through the minors with pitching prospects Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie, Rudy Owens, and Luis Heredia ready to produce in the majors within the next two years.

The Pirates are improving. While 2011 may not be the year they end their 18 year run of losing seasons, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

6. Houston Astros: The Astros needed to rebuild long ago, but they had managed to remain close to contention, causing them to keep expending prospects for rental players. Last season, the bottom fell out, and they finally began the rebuilding process. Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman were traded, finally bringing over prospects to help them rebuild. However, this team has very little talent on offense at the major league level. Carlos Lee had his worst season in his career. Michael Bourn, while a Gold Glove center fielder, is not much of a hitter. Speed is his greatest asset, although he strikes out far more than a leadoff hitter should. His OPS+ of 90 proves that he is below league average as a batter.

The one bright spot for the Astros is their rotation. Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ, Brett Myers, and Bud Norris comprise a staff that is surprisingly solid and vastly underrated. Rodriguez and Myers are an excellent top two in any rotation. Happ and Norris have a lot of promise, and have demonstrated the ability to get major league hitters out. Ryan Rowland-Smith is the probable fifth starter, and is a solid fit in any pitching staff.

The Astros are going to be terrible this season, and will be in contention for the top pick in 2012. They delayed rebuilding for too long, and will suffer the consequences for the next few years.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

2011 Preview - National League East

This is the fourth installment of the six part 2011 baseball preview. Today is the first of the National League divisions, the NL East. The teams are listed in the order of their anticipated finish.

1. Atlanta Braves: The Braves may have built themselves another dynasty. Their offense, already solid, was improved with the acquisition of Dan Uggla from the Florida Marlins. Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman add youth to a lineup with several veteran bats. Chipper Jones returns for another year, and is looking good thus far in spring training. The pitching staff is solid and deep, with Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens atop the rotation. Top prospects Julio Teheran and Mike Minor headline a crop of young pitchers that are making their way towards the majors.

With the acquisition of Uggla's bat, the Braves also traded for his glove - or lack thereof. While Uggla is not as bad as Brooks Conrad was for the Braves during the 2010 postseason at second, he's not vastly better either. Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters, two young hard throwing relievers, are vying for the closer position vacated by the retired Billy Wagner. Whether or not either will be able to be effective as the closer will be a major question. Also, for the first time since 1990, the Braves do not have the familiar presence of Bobby Cox in the dugout. His hand picked successor, Fredi Gonzalez, takes over this talented club as he tries to lead them back to a perpetual postseason berth.

The Braves are very well set up for 2011 and beyond. They may not have another 14 year run of postseason appearances, but they will be making October appearances for the foreseeable future.

2. Philadelphia Phillies: Ye Gods, this rotation is stacked. With the surprise acquisition of Cliff Lee via free agency, the Phillies can trot out four legitimate aces, as he joins Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels in the rotation. Joe Blanton, their number five starter, would slot as a number three on the majority of teams in baseball. The rotation is backed up by a solid bullpen, as a reborn Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson set up Brad Lidge. Lidge bounced back from a terrible 2009 to post his typically solid season, holding hitters to a .194 batting average, significantly down from the .301 he gave up the year before.

The offense, by name value alone, is solid, despite the loss of Jayson Werth. However, last season the Phillies scored either one run or were shut out in 34 of the 162 games played. Home runs decreased from 224 in 2009 to 166 in 2010. While the age of the lineup is certainly a factor, the Phillies big hitters (Utley, Victorino, Howard, and Rollins) are also seeing fewer fastballs. As batters that do most of their damage on the heater, this trend severely limits their ability to produce.

The rotation should be enough to ensure that the Phillies win majority of their games. But the offense is going to need to rebound in a major fashion for them to win the NL East.

3. Florida Marlins: The Marlins two biggest moves were to trade Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Michael Dunn, and to sign Javier Vazquez. At first, these moves would not cause excitement. However, Infante has proven to be a solid bat, and he solidifies the defense in the middle of the diamond. Dunn was added to a much improved bullpen to help the Marlins protect any leads. Vazquez has historically pitched much better in the National League, and in the NL East in particular. With a rotation fronted by the under appreciated Josh Johnson, and a lineup featuring Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, and some good young talent, the Marlins may be a lot better than people think.

The key for the Marlins will be whether or not the younger players perform up to their potential. Stanton hit 22 home runs in 359 at bats in 2010, and is expected to improve upon that number. Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez had solid rookie seasons, but need to improve for the Marlins to compete. John Buck was brought in as a free agent to solidify the catching position, however he is also a question mark after coming off of a career year in Toronto.

The Marlins will surprise some people in 2011, as long as the young players perform up to their potential. It would not be any surprise if they find themselves ahead of the Phillies at the end of the year.

4. Washington Nationals: The Nationals improved their offense with the signing of Jayson Werth, and also announced their intention to actually build a competitive team at the same time. While they may have overpaid Werth, teams like the Nations have to spend more than market value to attract free agents - look at how the Tigers acquired Ivan Rodriguez. Bryce Harper and the injured Stephan Strasburg headline a crop of elite prospects that will help to improve the Nationals in the next couple of season.

Aside from Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond, there is not much to like about the 2011 major league roster. Majority of the roster would either be bench pieces or be in AAA for clubs that are expected to compete, and even some that won't. Livan Hernandez is expected to lead the rotation, at age 36. If Jordan Zimmerman and Chien-Ming Wang can come back and pitch as well as they had before injury, the pitching staff would look a lot better. Until that time, there just is not a lot of talent here.

The future looks good in Washington, but the 2011 season will still be bad. They will improve over last year, but they are still a couple of years away.

5. New York Mets: To call the New York Mets a train wreck would be disrespectful - to train wrecks. They are much, much worse than that. With the situation involving the Bernie Madoff pyramid scheme, the Mets were financially hog tied and unable to make moves. Aside from David Wright, the only positive for the Mets involves expiring contracts. The mistakes known as Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo run out after 2011, as does 2012. Even though the Wilpon's needed to borrow $25 million from Major League Baseball this offseason, they have $36.5 million dollars off the books next season. Should the option on Francisco Rodriguez's contract not be triggered, that number jumps up to $50.5 million.

This team was a complete disaster, and that was even before the news that Johan Santana may be out for the entire season. Injuries, under performing free agent signings, and a lack of talent permeate the Mets. Jason Bay provided a total of six home runs for the 4 year/$66 million contract he signed. Jose Reyes cannot stay healthy. The rotation, minus Santana, is headed by either Mike Pelfrey or R. A. Dickey. This is what a team with over $133 million in payroll obligations has to look forward to? Really?

The Mets are flat out awful. As much as it would be best to just avert the eyes and ignore this disaster, the perverse interest in watching carnage is the only thing that makes seeing a Mets game worthwhile.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Donald Sterling Is A Joke

Donald Sterling is a man with a very checkered past. In 2005, he was ordered to pay $5 million in a lawsuit that accused him of trying to drive out black and Latino tenants from apartments that he owned in the Koreatown neighborhood of Los Angeles. He was sued in 2006 by former Clippers executive Elgin Baylor for employment discrimination based on age and race, a lawsuit that alledges that Sterling told him to build a team of  "poor black boys from the South and a white head coach." In 2009, the United States Department of Justice sued him for housing discrimination in using race as a factor in filling some of his apartment buildings. He has been sued multiple times for sexual harassment. He purchased a plot of land in the eastern end of downtown Los Angeles in 2006 with the promise to build a homeless shelter, which he has yet to begin to develop, leading many to believe he purchased this land to realize a profit.

As owner of the Clippers, he has been equally despicable. There is the lawsuit with Elgin Baylor, who Sterling admitted that he had no idea of Baylor's basketball accomplishments at any point in time. The man owns an NBA franchise, and did not know Elgin Baylor's place in basketball history? He refused to pay for assistant coach Kim Hughes' surgery for prostate cancer, leaving four Clippers players (Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, Marko Jaric, and Chris Kaman) to pick up the $70,000 tab that Hughes would have owed. Even though this surgery was required to save Hughes' life, Sterling refused to pay for it, feeling that it would set a 'dangerous example' and that others would feel that he would pay for their medical treatments. What a disgrace.

Sterling has steadfastly refused to spend money on his coaches or his scouting department, which is actually a position that the NBA wanna-be mafia boss David Stern approves of. Not coincidentally, since Sterling purchased the Clippers in 1981, they have had a total of two winning seasons. He refuses to surround himself with knowledgeable basketball minds, although some of that may be due to the fact that they will not work for him, given his history.

Don David has no problems going after Mark Cuban and other people in his private fiefdom for doing such things as criticizing the referees, wearing their headbands inside out, or other completely innocent things. Yet, he refuses to admonish Sterling for anything, including the multiple discrimination scandals. Why is this? Why does he refuse to force this bigoted, penny pinching, morally bankrupt piece of human garbage to sell his team? One would think that if any other owner was involved, or allegedly involved, in even one iota of the controversy that Sterling has been that he would be at that owner's doorstep with members of a 'persuation squad' to make them an 'offer they cannot refuse'. Why the double standard?

Clippers fans, all three of them now, deserve better than this. When Sterling no longer owns the Clippers, the NBA will be a better place.

2011 Preview - American League West

On to part three of the 2011 baseball season preview. This time, the American League West is featured. Teams are listed in order of their expected finish.

1. Texas Rangers: The Rangers have an extremely potent offense when healthy. With Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, and Ian Kinsler, the lineup already had several tremendous hitters. Adding Adrian Beltre to that mix makes this already formidable lineup even better. In the bullpen, they have Neftali Feliz, who was the AL Rookie of the Year last year as closer. With the additions of Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes, along with prospect Alexi Ogando, the bullpen is solid.

The biggest concern with the Rangers is their health. Cruz, Hamilton, and Kinsler all missed significant time last season. Hamilton, in particular, is a definate injury concern as he has played in over 135 games just once in his four year career. The rotation is also littered with question marks. Last season, the Rangers had a team ERA of 3.93, but that was also a product of players such as Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter having career years. Cliff Lee is no longer there to solidify the rotation and be that stopper in the event of a losing streak.

Despite this, the Rangers are still the team to beat in the AL West, and should reach the postseason for consecutive years for the first time since 1998 and 1999.

2. Oakland A's: The A's dramatically improved their team this offseason. By adding David DeJesus through trade, and the free agent signings of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, they have solidified a lineup that was anemic at best. While none of these signings are expected to hit 30 or more home runs, they fit perfectly with the ballpark, as they are prototypical doubles hitters. The pitching staff is both young and solid. Brett Anderson looks like a potential ace in the making. Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez are a solid group of pitchers, and should continue to improve this season.

The middle infield is the biggest weakness for this team. Mark Ellis cannot stay healthy, and at age 34, does not promise to gain any durability. Cliff Pennington is a black hole on offense, and is easily replaced. When the Cardinals made Brendan Ryan available, the A's should have made a move to grab him. While he wouldn't prove much more with the bat, he would solidify their infield defense, which Pennington does not.

Even with the questions in the middle of their infield, the A's should contend for the division title, and are my pick for the American League Wild Card.

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels offseason was filled with disappointment. After attempting to get Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford, they made a trade that screamed of desperation by moving Mike Napoli and Jaun Rivera for Vernon Wells and his ridiculous contract. Despite this, the Wells acquisition does improve their defense. The offense is still solid, with the return of Kendry Morales only serving to improve the lineup.

The rotation is a concern after Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. Ervin Santana, Joel Piniero, and Scott Kazmir do not inspire any confidence in their ability (or lack thereof) to get major league hitters out. Kazmir in particular has fallen off dramatically since his trade from Tampa Bay. The closer position is also a potential landmine, with Fernando Rodney and his 1.544 WHiP being counted on to close out ballgames. Rodney has the potential to completely napalm the ninth inning on any given night.

This is a team with a lot of holes and a questionable pitching staff. They will finish far behind the Rangers and the A's.

4. Seattle Mariners: This team is flat out terrible. Aside from Ichiro's hitting ability and his streak of 200 hits per year, and the ability to watch Felix Hernandez pitching, there really are not a lot of reasons to be excited for this ballclub. There are a few promising players coming through the pipeline in Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, and Nick Franklin; however, they need a lot more help.

The offense last season scored a total of 513 runs last year, or just under 3.2 per game. As such, their biggest offseason move was to get rid of Jose Lopez and bring in Brendan Ryan, who provides a great glove but nothing on offense. After Hernandez in the rotation is the AAAA platter of Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Luke French, and the perpetually injured Erik Bedard. This team is terrible beyond comprehension.

The only thing that the Mariners will be competing for in 2011 is the ability to draft first in 2012.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

2011 Preview - American League Central

For Part Two of the 2011 baseball preview, we look at the American League Central. Teams are listed in the order of their anticipated finish.

1. Chicago White Sox: Despite losing their closer in Bobby Jenks, the White Sox had a solid offseason. In signing Adam Dunn as a free agent to bolster an already solid lineup, they have increased their offensive firepower. Even with the loss of Jenks, the bullpen is still solid and deep. Matt Thornton is expected to take over as the closer, after an excellent 2010 where he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.005 WHiP, and 81 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. If he falters, Chris Sale, the first round draft pick in 2010, is ready to take over. After making his debut on August 6, he posted an ERA of 1.93, a 1.071 WHiP, and striking out 32 batters over 23.1 innings. The rotation, while it does not have a specific pitcher that can be pointed to as an 'ace', is filled with pitchers that would be a number two or number three starter on most any other team.

The biggest question mark with the White Sox is how Jake Peavy will return from his injury. He had surgery last summer to reattach his latissimus dormi muscle in his shoulder, which is a procedure that is quite rare in baseball. As of now, his velocity is down, but he is still pitching relatively effectively. However, if he goes down again, that is a major hole to fill.

By virtue of their depth and Ozzie Guillen's ability to somhow make the right moves, the White Sox are the team that should win a very competitive AL Central.

2. Minnesota Twins: The Twins got a major boost this offseason without needing to make a signing in the return of Joe Nathan. With his return to the bullpen, this gives the Twins three pitchers with significant closing experience in Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Like the White Sox, the Twins have a rotation without a specific ace, but all of their pitchers would slot as a number two or three on most other teams. The lineup, when healthy, is very good. Anchored by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, they scored the fifth most runs per game and had the fourth highest OPS in the American League, even with Morneau being out of the lineup after July 8th.

The Twins health is a major concern with Morneau recovering from a severe concussion and the Joe Mauer's tendancy to get hurt. Also, the defense in the outfield is horrible. With the spacious outfield at Target Field, the lack of range between Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel could hurt the Twins in 2011.

The Twins should battle with the White Sox for most of the 2011 season, but in the end, they will fall just short.

3. Detroit Tigers: The Detroit Tigers were quite active this offseason, acquiring Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit as free agents, and resigning Magglio Ordonez. The offense, which was already solid, has improved with these signings and Ordonez's return. Miguel Cabrera and Brendan Boesch will benefit from the improved lineup, as Cabrera will have more protection behind him. Boesch's production decreased when Ordonez got hurt, and he will benefit from having these veteran hitters around him in the lineup. Benoit fortifies a deep bullpen, along with a finally healthy Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde returning as closer.

The primary concern with the Tigers is their rotation. They have a legitimate number one starter in Justin Verlander; however, the rest of the rotation is a major concern. There are no guarantees that Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, or Brad Penny will pitch well. Scherzer did pitch much better after a mid season demotion to AAA last season, but he has yet to show any consistency at the major league level. Rounding out the rotation is Phil Coke, who the Tigers are hoping to convert to starting after he has spent the last three years as a reliever. They also have the spectre of Cabrera's DUI arrest hanging overhead. While i do not expect that to be a distraction, there is still the concern that Selig may suspend him or demand that he re-enters rehab, which would severely hurt the Tigers chances this year.

While the Tigers will be competitive, they simply do not have the rotation to keep up with the White Sox or the Twins. They would need to out slug their opponents to win the division, and they simply are not consistent enough to do so.

4. Cleveland Indians: When you are a team that will be lucky to win 70 games, the greatest strength of the team should not be the bullpen. However, in Cleveland, that is exactly where their strength lies. Chris Perez is a solid closer, and looks to be on his way to becoming one of the elite closers in the game. With him in the bullpen are Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, both strong arms that could close if Perez falters. They have some good young players coming up, with Carlos Santana projected to become an elite catcher, and Lonnie Chisenhall expected to debut at third base for them sometime this season. Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera are the main building blocks in the major league lineup, and both are excellent players.

The rest of the lineup is filled with major holes that were not addressed in the offseason. The Indians only major pickup as a free agent was Austin Kearns, which is not a move that inspires much confidence. The Indians are hoping that Travis Hafner remains healthy, that Grady Sizemore is finally healthy, and that Matt LaPorta can show some of the talent that had him considered to be a top prospect, and the key to the C.C. Sabathia trade. Meanwhile, the rotation is littered with AAAA pitchers. Fausto Carmona is the defacto number one, and is the only member of the rotation that could be considered major league material.

The Indians are in for a very long season, and it may be a few years before they are able to seriously expect to contend.

5. Kansas City Royals: Let's be up front - the Royals are not about 2011. They plan on competing in 2012 and beyond.

With that out of the way, the Royals are difficult to forecast for 2011. They have a number of elite prospects on the verge of reaching the majors, several of which may be called up before the September roster expansion. The lineup on opening day will not look anything like the lineup sent on to the field in September. The Royals, being cognisant of having the best system in baseball, signed the free agents they acquired to one year deals, so as to not block any of the prospects for 2012. For the present, they have a great closer in Jaokim Soria, and what promises to be a solid bullpen, despite the likelihood that they will have three rookies playing key roles. Billy Butler continues to hit at a solid level, and while he needs to develop more power, he has essentially become the 2010's version of Mark Grace.

However, this team has absolutely no offense aside from Butler. Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera were brought in as free agents, but will probably be traded by the deadline if the Royals can get anything for them. The rotation has very little to show for it, but once again, this is by design. Zack Greinke, their ace, was traded this offseason to Milwaukee in a move that brought over their shortstop and center fielder for the next few years.  However, the Royals are placing their hopes on prospects, which is not always a formula for success. If these players flame out, the Royals are in serious trouble going forward.

The Royals have a great future, and should contend in 2012 and beyond. 2011 is more about giving some of the prospects major league experience than it is about attempting to win the Central.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Carson Palmer Is Stuck

Leave it to a Bengal to screw up the timing when he demands a trade.

With the NFL lockout, player movement is prohibited. Free agents are not able to sign with new teams. Trades cannot occur. Should the lockout last through the draft, undrafted free agents will not be able to sign with teams. Nothing is able to be done until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached. As such, Carson Palmer's trade demands are unable to be met, even if the Bengals wanted to. And Cincinnati has stated repeatedly that they will not trade Palmer.

So, where does that leave him? Presently, Palmer is in limbo. He has no idea if he is going to be a Bengal or if they will acquiesce to his demands. In a time where all of the players are dealing with uncertainty in regards to their situations, Palmer is in an even more precarious situation.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are also in an interesting position. With there being no guarantee that the labor dispute will be resolved by the draft on April 28, they have to decide whether or not to draft a quarterback in the first round. As it stands, the Bengals need a quarterback to develop even if Carson Palmer is still on the roster. Presently, their backups are Jordan Palmer and Dan LeFevour - not exactly a group that provides any confidence should they be called upon. On top of this, the Bengals history in drafting quarterbacks is terrible. Over the past 20 years, they have drafted Donald Hollis, David Klinger, Akili Smith, Scott Covington, Palmer, Reggie McNeal, and Jeff Rowe. Yikes.

Palmer has stated on multiple occasions that he plans on retiring should he not be traded. If the labor situation is not resolved by the draft, it will be interesting to see how the Bengals handle it. Even should they call him out on his threats, they still need to draft a quarterback for the future. And watching that should be interesting.