With the upcoming NFL draft, attention has tuned to potential sleepers and busts for this year's draft. This list will focus on the top ten potential busts in the upcoming draft.
1. Cam Newton, QB: Newton is a very athletic player who has a lot of potential. However, potential gets more coaches fired and dooms more franchises than anything else. He started for one year in college, and has all the makings of a one year wonder, in the mode of Akili Smith. Newton is very much a project in the NFL, and should be drafted much later than he will be. Any team that drafts him expecting him to be ready for the NFL is in for a major disappointment, and a future coaching change. Just run away from this selection.
2. Brandon Harris, CB: Harris is projected to be the third cornerback taken in the draft, after Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara. While he has excellent straight line speed, it doesn't seem to translate well in coverage. Harris had a total of four career interceptions in college, which shows a lack of playmaking capabilities. His coverage issues manifest in his difficulties covering smaller, quicker receivers, in part because he provides a large cushion off the line. He also has problems in zone defense, as he does not react well. In short, Harris looks a lot like a dime back in the NFL.
3. Kyle Rudolph, TE: There is no question that Rudolph is a tremendous talent, and possibly the best pass catching tight end in the draft. However, there are serious questions about his desire to play football. He has a terrible work ethic, as he doesn't practice hard, takes plays off, and does not give 100% even when passes are heading his way. Rudolph also has an injury history, with injuries to his shoulder and hamstring. With other solid tight end options being available later in the draft, Rudolph is not worth the pick he will be selected at.
4. Nick Fairley, DT: When a player is compared to Albert Haynesworth - Redskins version, there are problems. Fairley has a questionable attitude, and is thought of as a possible locker room cancer already. Coupled with his reputation as a dirty player with how he hits quarterbacks low, attacks opposing players after the whistle, and will attempt to injure players, there are more red flags here than on the Chinese capitol building. Add to this that he only had one productive season in college, and this is another player to avoid entirely.
5. Robert Quinn, DE: Quinn was suspended for the entire 2010 season for receiving improper benefits from an agent, which is a major warning sign. There are also questions about his ability to learn a defense in the NFL. On the surface, Quinn was productive in college with 13 sacks, but a close examination shows that eleven of those came against Duke, Virginia, and 1-AA teams, which is not exactly the top competition. In fact, he only had one sack against a ranked opponent for his career. Quinn is rated highly more on reputation than on merit.
6. Mark Ingram, RB: Ingram had a heavy work load in college, and that has the potential to curtail his NFL career. As it is, the shelf life for runningbacks appears to decrease each year. He only ran a 4.62 40 yard dash at the combine, and is not a tremendous athlete. Add to this a degenerative condition on his left knee that has already caused two teams to remove him from their draft boards entirely, and Ingram has all the makings of a bust.
7. Anthony Castonzo, T: Castonzo is not an elite prospect. In fact, he is solidly in the second tier of offensive tackles in this year's draft. However, since he happens to be a tackle, and a lot of teams need offensive tackles, he will get drafted much higher than he deserves. Castonzo is not overly strong, and has problems with run blocking. He is quick and agile, but has problems with strong rushing defensive ends, and gets fooled on stunts. In short, he would be a solid pick in the second round, but will likely go in the mid to late first.
8. Blaine Gabbert, QB: Gabbert became a top quarterback prospect in this draft by default, with Andrew Luck returning to school and questions about other quarterbacks in the draft. There are serious accuracy problems with Gabbert, and he only completed 30% of his passes that traveled beyond 15 yards. Furthering issues with his arm strength, he has trouble with passes thrown outside the numbers. Gabbert NEEDS to play for a team with a West Coast offense, and has no capability to play for anything else. This is not someone that might be the second quarterback off the board.
9. Jake Locker, QB: If Locker had come out last year, he would have been a top five pick. However, he stayed in school, and his draft stock plummeted. Like Cam Newton, Locker has a strong arm and solid athleticism. However, like Cam Newton, Locker is a project at the NFL level. He has serious accuracy concerns (combined in two games against Nebraska last year, he was 9-36) and problems reading defenses. He needs a couple of years to develop, and may not be given that opportunity.
10. Nate Solder, T: Solder has great size, and all of the measurables teams look for when evaluating offensive linemen. However, he does not play up to his abilities. He has long arms, but lets defensive linemen get inside his reach and push him around. Solder plays straight up and down, which limits his mobility and balance. This also affects his ability to adjust to the rusher, allowing Solder to get beaten far more often than he should. There are questions about his ability to protect the edge, and may turn out to be a Robert Gallery type of player, who needs to play guard in order to be successful in the NFL.
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