2011 AFC East Preview

For the first of our eight part 2011 NFL preview, we take a look at the AFC East. The teams are listed in order of where we expect them to finish.

1. New England Patriots: After a couple of years of terrible draft classes (with the release of Brandon Meriweather, the entire 2007 draft class is no longer a part of the Patriots) and a shift away from their identity, the Patriots loaded up for a run this season. Getting back to their roots, they traded for a couple of players that were considered malcontents on their previous teams in Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. They also drafted running backs in the second and third rounds in Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, giving them a stable of runners that they have not had in a long time. This will allow Tom Brady to get back to what he did when they were winning Super Bowls – manage the game and not have to try to win the games in a shootout.

On defense, the Patriots may have finally found that pass rush they have been missing for the last few years. They have one of the top pairs of defensive tackles  that can be found in the NFL with a properly motivated Haynesworth and Vince Wilfork. The defensive ends are deep, and capable of getting into the backfield. With the depth at cornerback, the linebackers will be able to blitz more, letting a player like Jerod Mayo become more of a playmaker than just a tackling machine. Plus, the loss of Meriweather is addition by subtraction, as he proved time and time again to be incapable of playing within the system and displayed a consistent lack of football instincts.

The Patriots will win the AFC East, and should be considered one of the contenders for the Super Bowl

2. Miami Dolphins: Chad Henne was not nearly as bad as everyone thinks. He completed almost 62% of his passes, and set a career high for passing yards. People point to his 19 interceptions as proof that Henne cannot play quarterback, but he was incredibly unlucky in that department. As he throws an imminently catchable ball, only one of his potential interceptions was dropped, as opposed to the league average of eight. Put him at the league average, then Henne only threw 12 interceptions last year, which is a decent total. Also hurting Henne was a complete lack of a running game, and a terrible offensive line. Both have been upgraded, as Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas will now share the load carrying the ball. Bush, in particular, should be a major boost for Henne, as that will give him a second playmaker on offense to pair with Brandon Marshall.

The defense is very underrated, and very young in the secondary. The defensive line is quite capable of getting to the quarterback, and linebacker Cameron Wake is amongst the best pass rushers in the entire game. Vontae Davis appears ready to become a superstar, and Seth Smith is another developing player in the backfield. While the Dolphins were solid against the run last year, they did have problems with covering tight ends and runningbacks. To address this, Channing Crowder was sent packing, and the Dolphins brought in speedy Kevin Burnett, who can play every down for that defense.

Expect major improvement from Henne this year, as the Dolphins contend for a wild card spot.

3. New York Jets: For all the bombast and bravado that is spewed forth by Rex Ryan, he typically backs it up with his team’s performance. However, this season, he has far overstated the Jets ability. Claiming that this is the best team he has had is simply fallacy. It is difficult to see where this team actually upgraded, as they lost receivers Braylon Edwards, Jericho Cotchery, and Brad Smith; only to replace them with the slower Derrick Mason and the out-of-football-for-two-years Plaxico Burress. Yes, Burress can be a red zone target for Mark Sanchez, but they lost a lot of speed and playmaking ability from the receiving corps. Running back is another question mark, as no one knows if Shonn Greene can actually be an every down back. LaDanian Thomlinson wore down as the season progressed last year, and there are concerns as to whether or not he has anything left in the tank.

On defense, there are also concerns. After their failed pursuit of Nnamdi Asomugha, the Jets resigned Antonio Cromartie, who has an undeserved reputation as a ballhawk. People look at his 18 career interceptions, but they fail to realize that 10 came in his second year in the league when he was not a full time starter. Cromartie can be exploited, as can the middle of their pass defense. The linebackers and safeties are solid against the run, but struggle in passing situations. On defensive line, they lost Shaun Ellis to free agency (to the Patriots) and defensive tackle Kris Jenkins retired. To replace them, they drafted two rookies in Muhammad Wilkerson and Kenrick Ellis. Can these two step right in and make the major contributions they will need to? In short, this defense is not nearly as good as they are perceived to be.

The Jets have enough talent to finish around .500, but they are not a playoff team.

4. Buffalo Bills: The biggest question with the Bills is Why? Why do they even bother to show up? Why do they make the moves that they do? Why?!

In all seriousness, the Bills could have just as easily won seven games last year, as they played a number of teams tough, only to lose in the last few minutes of games. Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven to be a solid quarterback, although they desperately need to address this position and get a quarterback of the future. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller should be a solid tandem at running back, but Spiller is looking more and more like Reggie Bush with each passing game – nothing more than a situational back. The receivers are young and are all major question marks after Lee Evans was traded to Baltimore. While Steve Johnson exploded on the scene last year, can he keep up the pace as the focus of the opposing defenses? And what else will they line up with Johnson in the passing game?

The defense has a strong defensive line with absolute stud Kyle Williams anchoring the middle. Marcell Dareus could very well develop into another dominant lineman, giving them two solid building blocks there. The linebackers could be quite solid, depending on whether or not Shawne Merriman can stay on the field. While he was once a dominant player, he has been injury prone over the last few seasons. Arthur Moats (also known as the player that ended Brett Favre’s career) looks like a playmaker. The loss of Paul Posluszny hurts, especially if rookie Kelvin Sheppard is not up to the task of starting in the middle. They also signed former Packer Nick Barnett, which is a major upgrade at the linebacker position. A secondary that was amongst the worst in the NFL last year was upgraded during the draft, most notably with the pick of Aaron Williams. With the resigning of Drayton Florence, the defense should be dramatically better, but will it matter?

The Bills have some nice building blocks on defense, but they need to upgrade that offense dramatically in the next couple of drafts. They simply do not have the horses to compete in the AFC East.