2011 AFC West Preview

Welcome to Part Seven of the 2011 NFL Season Preview. Here, we take a look at the AFC West. As always, the teams are listed in the order of their expected finish.

1. Oakland Raiders:If you want bold predictions and a team no one is talking about – here you go: The Oakland Raiders win the AFC West. And no, I am not heavily intoxicated as I type these words. Here’s why. The Raiders may have the best stable of running backs in the AFC, as Darren McFadden finally hit his potential, Michael Bush could start for half the teams in the league, and Taiwan Jones is a star waiting to happen. Jason Campbell displayed leadership and actually has enough skill to get the ball to his receivers, unlike the steaming pile of excrement that was JaMarcus Russell. Jacoby Ford is actually a solid receiver, and they may have uncovered a diamond in fifth round pick Denarius Moore. Derek Hagan has all the makings of a late bloomer, a la Brandon Lloyd. If they can get anything out of Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey, this could be a dangerous group. Campbell also likes to throw to the tight ends, and while the loss of Zach Miller will hurt, Kevin Boss is a solid replacement. Look for Marcel Reese to get a solid amount of work in the passing game as well.

On defense, regression is expected with the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha. The starting cornerbacks are going to be Stanford Routt, and one of a pair of rookies in DeMarcus Van Dyke or Chimdi Chekwa. However, the safeties are solid, particularly with Michael Huff. The lack of experience at the cornerback position actually should be well disguised this year, as the Raiders have the potential for a truly dominant defensive line. Remember the theory of the pass rush for fantasy defenses, as pressure on the quarterback leads to turnovers? Expect that to happen here. Richard Seymour is still an absolute beast, and Tommy Kelly is a nice compliment as a true run stuffer. The ends of the very underrated Matt Shaughnessy (expect him to be at least a Pro Bowl player this year) and Lamarr Houston can get after the quarterback. Add in a linebacker of the caliber of Rolando McClain, and there are enough pieces to make this defense work.

The Raiders will make the playoffs this year. Time for Al Davis to stop being referred to as past his prime.

2. San Diego Chargers: So, how does a team have the top statistical offense and defense, yet still manage to miss the playoffs? By having special teams so bad that Helen Keller could even see that they were terrible. Philip Rivers catapulted himself into the discussion of the top four quarterbacks in the game with his performance last season, even though he was throwing to street free agents and guys that were bagging groceries or washing cars two weeks prior to seeing the field. Having Vincent Jackson back for the entire season paired with Malcolm Floyd will only make Rivers look that much better. Antonio Gates may be slowed by a persistent foot issue, he is still the top tight end in the game. The only drawback may be in the running game, where Darren Sproles will be missed far more than people expect. Ryan Mathews needs to show that he can stop fumbling and stay healthy. Mike Tolbert was the ultimate touchdown machine last year, but can he withstand the pounding of 20+ carries if Mathews falters?

The defense was a strong unit last year, and only improved thruogh the draft and free agency. Corey Liuget is a pure run stuffer, and will add sorely needed depth to the defensive line. Free agents Bob Sanders and Takeo Spikes can make huge impacts to the defense. If Sanders can stay healthy, look for him to regain the form he had back in 2007, when he won the Defensive Player of the Year award. Coupled with Eric Weddle, the safeties are strong. Spikes, even though he has been in the league for 14 years, has yet to participate in the postseason. He can almost taste it here.

The Chargers should be a better team and have a better record. While most people expect them to make the playoffs, keep one thing in mind – Norv Turner. Hopefully the talent can overcome his deficiencies, but you never know.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have some nice pieces on offense, but there are a number of concerns. Matt Cassel has a rib injury, and is likely out for at least the first week. If the injury turns out to be serious, that means that Tyler Palko or Ricky Stanzi will see a significant number of snaps. This does not bode well for a team hoping to return to the playoffs. At running back, Jamaal Charles had a great year last season, but had fewer carries than Thomas Jones. While the plan is for Charles to get majority of the carries, there is a question as to whether or not he can hold up under the workload. Dwayne Bowe is a good receiver, but put up a career year last season. Rookie Jonathan Baldwin will help to stretch the field, and Steve Breaston is an excellent slot receiver, but is there enough talent in the receiving corps? Tight end Tony Moeaki is out for the season, costing Cassel one of his favorite targets. Who knows what is going to end up replacing him.

On defense, there are a few solid pieces. Tanba Hali put up a great season, and appears to have finally found his ability to get at the quarterback. The pass rush is solid, and should only get better with the addition of third round draft pick Justin Houston, who will step right in for Mike Vrabel. Eric Berry is a playmaker in the secondary, and will only get better with experience. While the offense could be a disaster, the Chiefs defense looks capable of keeping them in games this year.

The Chiefs had a lot of things break right for them to make the playoffs last season. A tougher schedule, questions on offense, and a regression to the mean will keep the Chiefs from contending for a playoff spot.

4. Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton is a very good quarterback who does not get the respect he deserves. People keep expecting Tim Tebow to unseat him this year, but Tebow is not even close to be ing a viable NFL quarterback. If anything should happen to Orton, expect Brady Quinn to get the nod first. While Orton is the unquestioned starter, everything else is unsettled. Brandon Lloyd is the number one receiver, but can he duplicate his success in a different system? Even if Lloyd turns out not to be a fluke, there is still the inconvenient problem of finding someone opposite to him. Demaryius Thomas is still dealing with an injury to his Achilles. Odds are that Eric Decker gets the chance, but is he ready? Turning the attention to the running game, Knowson Moreno has been a disappointment. Willis McGahee was brought in to compliment Moreno, but does he have anything left in the tank? The offense could be an absolute train wreck this year.

On defense, the Broncos were terrible. They were unable to generate anything even remotely resembling a pass rush, sacking the quarterback only 25 times last year. The return of Ellis Dumervil from injury will help, as will the selection of Von Miller with the second pick of the draft. Champ Bailey and Brain Dawkins return in the secondary, but both are almost as old as Methuselah. One has to wonder how much more they have left, if anything. Aside from the ability that Dumervil has as a pass rusher, nothing in the front seven has proven that they are capable of starting for an NFL team. While the passing defense may be decent, the Broncos will get shredded by the run.

The Broncos are going to have a rough season, yet will be just good enough to avoid being able to draft Andrew Luck. The next few years will be long in Denver.