2011 AFC South Preview

Welcome to Part Five of the 2011 NFL Preview. This time, we look at the AFC South. As always, the teams are listed in the expected order of where they should finish.

1. Indianapolis Colts:The Colts entire season comes down to whether or not the Peyton Manning neck injury is as bad as has been rumored. Kerry Collins, who has proven to be a serviceable NFL quarterback, simply cannot replicate what Manning is to the offense - essentially a second offensive coordinator. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark can help make a quarterback look good; yet beyond them, the offense is not as good as one would think. Austin Collie is one hit from thinking he's Batman, Pierre Garcon has trouble with dropped passes and clearly frustrates Manning, and Blair White is still very raw. The running game has essentially been non-existent since the days of Edgerrin James, which is pathetic considering how much they spread the field. The offensive line should be better with the drafting of Ben Ijalana and Anthony Castonzo, but again, there is not enough depth.

The defense is actually in a state of transition. Known as a Cover 2 defense from when Tony Dungy moved over from Tampa, defensive co-ordinator Larry Coyer wants to play more man coverage and diversify how they attack the pass. THis switch cannot hurt, as the Colts were torched on deeper passes over the middle. Yet, the Colts did nothing to upgrade their secondary, simply resigning players they already had. The Colts were also terrible against the run, but they did take steps to address this. The additions of Jamaal Anderson, Tommie Harris, and Drake Nevis should improve their ability to stop the run.

The Colts will go as far as Peyton Manning can take them. If he plays all 16 games, they're a playoff team. Otherwise, they are 5-11.

2. Houston Texans: The Texans are a team that is consistently less than the sum of their parts. With Arian Foster, the Texans have an absolute beast int he running game who has an incredible ability to gain yards after contact. Matt Schaub is possibly a ten top quarterback, and Andre Johnson is on of the top three receivers in the NFL. While Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter are not about to scare opposing secondaries, they do enough to help open the field up. Tight end Owen Daniels is as good as they come when he's healthy.

The defense is undergoing a transition from a 4-3 to Wade Phillips' 3-4. Every year when Phillips goes to a new team, there is a dramatic improvement over the previous year. Mario Williams is shifting to linebacker, in the hybrid mold of DeMarcus Ware and Brian Orakpo. Brian Cushing is a stud linebacker, and the Texans are solid against the run. The problem is in the secondary, where they give up majority of their big plays. In an attempt to rectify this, the Texans went out and signed Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning. The defense still needs depth and another cornerback, but the cupboard is not as bare as it had been in previous years.

Is this the year the Texans finally get it together? If not, Gary Kubiak is going to have the axe fall on him after the season.

3. Tennessee Titans: The entire offense is about Chris Johnson and how long Matt Hasselbeck keeps the seat warm for Jake Locker. Johnson is an elite back, capable of doing practically anything with the football. The entire offense will be set up off of Johnson, making his holdout through camp that much more important. Will he be ready to play at the elite level they need right off the bat? In the passing game, there are a couple of pieces in Kenny Britt and Jared Cook. Unfortunately, Britt has million dollar ability coupled with a ten cent brain. The rest of the receivers are a collection of underachievers and disappointments. Where have you gone Frank Wycheck and Kevin Dyson?

The defense is also undergoing change. Expect new defensive co-ordinator Jerry Gray to be more aggresive than the Titans had been in the past. This is partially to cover up for the smaller and less talented line, and partially to attempt to replace the production of Jason Babin, who signed with Philadelphia. Otherwise, the opposing quarterback may as well order pizza and pull out a lawn chair to work on his tan with the time he'll have back there. Cortland Finnegan is an island of competence in that defense now, the only true playmaker left. Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner might develop into solid pieces, but they will need to accelerate that curve for the Titans to have an effective defense this season.

This is going to be a season of turmoil for a team taht was once the model of stability. Rebuilding will be ugly, but at least Chris Johnson is going to be fun to watch.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars: News flash to the Jaguars organization - you do not release your starting quarterback five days before the season starts and expect to be competitive. Especially if you replace that quarterback with Luke McCown, who is basically there to absorb the beating that would otherwise go to Blaine Gabbert. This is unfortunate, because they do have some nice receivers in Mike Thomas, rookie Cecil Shorts, and tight end Marcedes Lewis. If healthy, Maurice Jones -Drew is a bowling ball of tough yardage, but there is no depth behind him with the season ending injury to Rashad Jennings. This is going to be a long season on offense.

On defense, a lot is made about the Jaguars lack of a pass rush. While some of this can be attributed to poor drafting along the defensive line, this is also due to a philosophical flaw on this side of the ball. The Jaguars do not want their defensive linemen to play a physical style of football. Quite simply, it is nearly impossible to get at the quarterback with a defensive line that is not physical. On the whole, the defense has improved, as linebackers Clint Session and Paul Posluszny, along with defensive end Matt Roth and safety Dawan Landry were brought in. Session and Posluszny will need to make plays, and Landry should help Rashean Mathis in the secondary. Despite this, the Jaguars are still sorely lacking in talent on this side of the ball as well.

This is another team who has nothing to look forward to other than the inevitable beginning to a rookie quarterback's career. Look for the Jaguars to clean house after this season.